证券研究报告 | 行业深度 | 房地产 房地产 报告日期：2024年05月02日 打破负循环，探寻修复路径 ——房地产行业深度报告 投资要点 行业评级: 看好(维持) ❑ 本轮房地产链式降温，政策“小步快走”难破负循环 分析师：杨凡 2024年是地产销售和投资增速持续下行的第三年，本轮周期下行从二手房到新 执业证书号：S1230521120001 房逐步降温，房企受销售下滑和资金收紧双重制约，行业形成“链式降温”和多 yangfan02@stocke.com.cn 方负循环效应。我们总结市场目前有三个负循环：1）购房者对交房的担忧和对 未来房地产市场的弱预期，即购房者预期的负循环；2）房企出险导致信用受损 研究助理：吴贵伦 且波及其他同行，房企信用的负循环；3）金融机构对房企更为谨慎，实质性落 w uguilun@stocke.com.cn 地支持受限，即金融机构预期的负循环。回顾2022-2023年，房地产放松政策 相关报告 虽次数多，但受到调整幅度有限或实质性落地支持受限等因素的影响，行业负循 环难以打破。 1 《新指引，新信号》 ❑ 2024年打破负循环已迈出重要一步，但仍需更多实质性政策发力 2024 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 海外市场观察 证券研究报告2024.05.12 美国二次通胀风险有多大？ 2024年5月6日～12日 刘刚，CFA 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref: AVH867 kevin.liu@cicc.com.cn 李雨婕分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030005 SFC CE Ref: BRG962 yujie.li@cicc.com.cn 更多一 去年底以来，市场对美联储降息预期的“折返跑”很大程度上来自通胀的波动。可以说，接下来的一两个通胀数据如何， 基本就决定了年内的降息节奏，毕竟当前降息不是为了应对经济的恶化（《美联储降息的门槛》）。一季度美国经济数据如 就业、通胀和PMI均持续超预期，加上同期大宗商品价格大涨，不仅导致降息预期回落，甚至在二次通胀担忧下，加息的 声音也再度出现。然而进入4月，利率走高的反身性逐渐显现，房地产、PMI、非农等数据又接连放缓，降息预期也再度 升至年内两次（9月和12 月)周这种正反两个方向超预期数据“扎推”且来回摇摆的现象其实并不奇怪，恰恰是我们此 前提到的金融条件 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of $1.75 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.3%, with a gross margin of 13.7%, down 2.7 percentage points [1] - EBITDA for Q1 was $887 million, with an EBITDA margin of 50.7% [1] - The total assets stood at $48.2 billion, with total liabilities of $17.3 billion and total equity of $30.8 billion [1] - The company plans for Q2 2024 sales revenue to grow by 5% to 7% and expects a gross margin of 9% to 11% [1][2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a production of 1.79 million 8-inch wafers in Q1, a 7% increase quarter-over-quarter [2] - Revenue from wafer sales constituted 93% of total revenue, with other income making up 7% [2] - The revenue breakdown by application showed smartphones and consumer electronics each accounted for 31%, while computers and tablets accounted for 18% [2] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue distribution by region remained stable, with China accounting for 82%, North America for 15%, and Eurasia for 3% [2] - The company noted an increase in customer inventory levels and a rise in demand from domestic clients, contributing to improved sales performance [2] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity and enhancing market share, particularly in the integrated circuit manufacturing sector [1] - It aims to prioritize cash flow for core business activities, including capacity expansion and R&D, foregoing profit distribution for 2023 [1] - The company is developing technology platforms for various applications, including high-voltage drives and image sensors, to cater to diverse market needs [2] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management indicated that the integrated circuit industry is recovering, with improved customer inventory and demand [2] - The company expects to exceed the average growth of comparable companies and is optimistic about maintaining growth in the first half of the year [3] - There are concerns about competitive pricing pressures due to increased local production capacity in China [3] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing depreciation pressure due to high capital expenditures aimed at expanding 12-inch capacity [3] - The management acknowledged the need for a balanced global supply chain and anticipates continued investment in local capacities [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does product mix affect ASP and will price declines slow down in the coming quarters? - The ASP is influenced by both price trends and product mix changes. The company has faced production bottlenecks but maintains that overall ASP has not significantly declined since February [4] Question: What specific consumer products are expected to gain market share? - The company noted increased demand for low-power Bluetooth IoT and MCUs, driven by a recovering international consumer market and upcoming sports events [4] Question: What is the contribution of the 28nm process to the company? - The company has been producing 28nm since 2014 and continues to expand its capacity due to strong customer demand across various sectors [5] Question: What is the company's outlook on the global wafer foundry industry growth? - The company aims to exceed the average growth of comparable firms and is optimistic about maintaining a strong order book for the upcoming quarters [6] Question: Will capital expenditures continue throughout the year? - The company expects to maintain capital expenditures in the second half of the year, aligning with customer demand [7] Question: How does the company view the global semiconductor market's future? - The company acknowledges a projected growth in the semiconductor market, driven by new applications and demand, but cautions about uneven growth across different sectors [8]

参会嘉宾:实控人、联席首席执行官、总裁、首席财务官、董事会秘书 公司财务情况介绍 各项指标保持稳健增长，2023 年收入 114.11 亿元（+23.52%）；归母净利润 19.74 亿元（+19.21%）；扣 非净利润 16.65 亿元（+23.38%）。23Q4 收入 39.78 亿元（+17.72%）；归母净利润 9.10 亿元 （+20.17%）；扣非净利润 8.36 亿元（+37.55%）。 2024Q1 收入 23.50 亿元（+6.22%）；归母净利润 3.63 亿元（+10.20%）；扣非净利润 3.00 亿元 （+8.52%）。其中，海外业务同比增长近 50%，国际市场收入占比超 15%。我们认为，24 年伴随各地医疗 设备更新细则政策逐步落地，及各级医疗机构高质量建设等需求带动，叠加海外持续拓展，公司全年增长动 力有望维持。 2023 年国内市场收入 97.33 亿元（+19.37%），国际市场收入 16.78 亿元（+54.72%），保持高速增长态 势，国际市场占收比提升至 14.7%。 2024 年一季度公司实现营业收入 23.5 亿元，同比增长 6.22%，实现归母净利润 3.03 ...

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 781.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.04% [7] - The total profit reached 324.13 billion, with net profit at 279.56 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.83% [7] - Total assets amounted to 5719.43 billion, up 74.76% year-on-year, while net assets increased by 8.45% to 2122.99 billion [7] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - Hydropower generation reached 2762.63 billion kWh in 2023, an increase of 140.15 billion kWh or 5.34% year-on-year [1][4] - The company has over 30 pumped storage projects under tracking, with a total installed capacity of nearly 42 million kW [1][4] - In the renewable energy sector, distributed photovoltaic and energy storage projects both exceeded 1 million kW in scale [1][5] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - International business profits exceeded 2.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51%, with successful acquisitions in Peru and ongoing projects in Pakistan [1][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve a hydropower generation target of 3088 billion kWh in 2024, with domestic hydropower stations expected to exceed 3074 billion kWh [1][13] - Expansion plans include increasing the installed capacity of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba hydropower stations [1][13] - The company is focusing on developing pumped storage and enhancing its renewable energy base [1][13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that despite challenges such as reduced water inflow, the company expects significant improvements in generation capacity due to optimized dispatching [16] - The company is committed to maintaining a high cash dividend policy, with a proposed cash dividend of 200.64 billion for 2023 [3][18] Other Important Information - The company has established an ESG management framework to enhance its sustainability practices [8][9] - It has implemented over 400 rural revitalization projects, investing over 2 billion [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected scale of R&D expenses and the main business synergy model? - The company emphasizes high-tech content, economic efficiency, resource efficiency, low environmental impact, and human resource advantages in its R&D investments [16] Question: What is the growth source of the Ludus company and the sustainability of overseas business performance? - The international business revenue exceeded 2.1 billion, with stable growth expected due to the nature of public utility operations in Peru [16] Question: What is the outlook for future water inflow and generation capacity? - Current water inflow is near the historical average, and generation capacity is expected to improve significantly [16] Question: What is the progress of pumped storage project construction? - There are currently 2.4 million kW of pumped storage under construction, with an additional 4.2 million kW planned [16] Question: What are the company's specific investment arrangements? - The company will focus on low-risk, stable-return investments, particularly in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River [16][17] Question: What is the current status of renewable energy installations in 2023? - The company has successfully integrated nearly 2 million kW of renewable energy projects [17] Question: What is the future investment layout in Latin America? - The company completed its first renewable energy asset acquisition in Peru, establishing a complementary generation structure [17] Question: What is the capacity of the hydropower unit in Peru and its operational timeline? - The company operates the Santa Teresa 1 hydropower station in Peru with a capacity of 100,000 kW, operational since September 2015 [17] Question: What are the expansion plans for this year? - Expansion projects for Xiangjiaba and Gezhouba hydropower stations are underway [17] Question: What is the source of the significant increase in operating cash flow in 2023? - The increase in cash flow is attributed to the recovery of electricity payments [17] Question: How does the company view its investments in the Yangtze Protection ETF? - The company maintains that these investments align with its strategic goals and support the high-quality development of the Yangtze Economic Belt [17] Question: Will the dividend payout ratio increase after reducing debt? - The company has set a minimum cash dividend policy of 50% of distributable profits, with a current payout ratio of approximately 74% [18] Question: What is the overall interest-bearing debt cost rate? - The company has successfully reduced its financing cost rate and debt scale, with a notable decrease in 2023 [19][20]

【摘要】 经营业绩概览： 1）装机：截至2023年底，公司清洁能源装机容量2752.79万千瓦，水电装机 2559.98万千 瓦，新能源装机 192.81万千瓦。 2）发电量：全年完成发电量1070.61亿千瓦时，水电发电量1052.64 亿千瓦时，新能源发电 17.98亿千瓦时。 3）利用小时数：发电设备利用小时3968.70小时，相较于同行业3136.25小时超出832.45小 时。 境外电站： 1）瑞丽江一级电站：装机 60 万千瓦，是中国在缅甸投资的最大的水电项目。 2）桑河二级水电站：装机容量40 万千瓦，占柬埔寨全国总发电装机容量超20%，是柬埔寨境 内最大的水电站。 3）截至 2023 年，累计发电量 411.38亿千瓦时，实现利润 45.82 亿元。。 24年华能水电光伏电站投资计划 2024年公司预计开工和续建新能源项目84个，预计投产309万千瓦，新能源项目计划投资 139.91亿元。 【领导致辞】 随着西部大开发战略全面实施，公司应运而生，历经 25 年砥砺奋进，从无到有、从小到大、 从弱到强、从强到优，公司发展呈现了六个鲜明的特色：一是龙头示范有引领，公司总装机 2752 万千瓦，总资 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The semiconductor industry has reached a turning point, with demand exceeding supply, leading to a projected annual growth of approximately 20% for the company [1][3] - In Q1 2024, the company reported sales revenue of $1.75 billion, a 4.3% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 19.7% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 13.7%, exceeding guidance [11][14] - Capital expenditures for Q1 2024 were $2.235 billion, slightly down from $2.340 billion in Q4 2023 [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue by application in Q1 2024 was as follows: smartphones 31.2%, computers and tablets 17.5%, consumer electronics 30.9%, IoT and wearables 13.2%, and industrial and automotive 7.2% [12] - The revenue contribution from 12-inch wafers was 75.6%, while 8-inch wafers accounted for 24.4% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has established itself as the second-largest pure foundry globally, surpassing UMC and GlobalFoundries, with a 20% year-over-year revenue increase [2] - The revenue from the Chinese market accounted for 81.6%, while the U.S. contributed 14.9% and the Eurasian region 3.5% [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has shifted its growth guidance to exceed the average of its peers, indicating increased confidence in market recovery and demand [1][14] - The focus remains on expanding advanced process capacities, with a capital expenditure plan of $7.5 billion for 2023 and potentially over $8 billion for 2024 [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the strong recovery in demand, particularly in consumer electronics and AI applications, with expectations for continued growth in Q2 2024 [3][14] - The company noted that inventory levels among customers have significantly decreased, leading to urgent orders for replenishment [7] Other Important Information - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve as capacity utilization increases, with a target to exceed 60% [8] - The company has a strong customer base, with the largest customer contributing approximately 15% of total revenue [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the semiconductor industry? - Management expressed optimism about the semiconductor industry's recovery, citing strong demand in consumer electronics and AI applications [3] Question: How does the company plan to manage capacity? - The company plans to continue expanding its advanced process capacities while maintaining a focus on efficient utilization of existing resources [5] Question: What are the expectations for revenue growth in 2024? - The company aims for revenue growth to exceed the average of its peers, with a strong performance anticipated in Q2 2024 [14]

通策医疗交流20240509 公司当前的经营状况如何，是否有所改善? Q1: A1:当前，公司的经营情况正在稳步向好，我们已经度过了最艰 难的时期，正处于逐步恢复的阶段。各项业务正有序开展，为公 司的未来发展奠定坚实基础。 Q2:公司在发展战略上有哪些具体规划，尤其是在省外市场拓展 方面? A2:我们的战略规划中，省外市场拓展占据了重要位置。计划通 过一系列的体外发展手段，包括但不限于收购、并购和加盟，来 加速市场布局。我们已经在武汉、西安和成都等地进行了初步试 点，以验证市场策略的有效性。在选择合作伙伴时，我们更看重 其在当地的品牌口碑和医疗团队的专业素质，而不仅仅是其现有 的市场规模，确保每一步扩张都稳健而高质量。 ...

直销，大量集中于客户端的话，展示销售额会还好，昱能模式会堵在海外仓库，所以首先 会找容易爆发销售下跌或者成长放缓的现象，这是去年出现的。现在第二季度微逆转整个 板块的销售在数据来讲恢复不错，台数与毛利率都还是会恢复的不错。第二季度预计环比 也会有增长，大概 10~20%的增长。动能会持续存在，MLPE 板块，除了工商储能，这个板 块里面应该有 30%左右的增长，经营目标应该是在 18 个亿左右。 Q：今年市场的竞争， 尤其是 MLPE 板块，毛利率趋势，还有定价策略会发生什么变化？ A：MLPE 应用场景分了 几类，其中微光储这一个板块的应用场景，国内微逆企业是充分参与的甚至是主导的板 块，因此这个板块竞争会比较激烈，户储这一块目前来讲还是依赖于专业的光储渠道来做 的，相对来讲有比较强的品牌跟一个渠道管理的效应。包括工商储能这一块还是跟以往差 不多，竞争态势不会有太大的变化，利润率与价格压力这一块相对少一点，这个问题的回 答要分板块来讲。 Diy 板块会接力一点，其他几个板块今年应该还是几家传统主导企业继 续主导。 Q：一季度销量接近 25 万，微光储这一块销量占比有多少，最近正好德国法案 也公告了，后续这一 ...

明泰铝业20240508_智能速览 2024年05月08日 23:05 关键词 本纪要由AI生成 内容以同名音频为准 请勿外传，仅供个人学习使用 铝加工 出口受益 明泰铝业 外贸增长 内贸增长 产销量 加工费 出口退税 产品结构 供应链中断 外贸订单 套期保值 采购模式 价格波动 产能扩张 出口 成本上升 板带箔行业 内需 再生铝 问答回顾 本纪要由AI生成 内容以同名音频为准 请勿外传，仅供个人学习使用本纪要由AI生成 内容以同名音频为准 请勿外传，仅供个人学习使用 未知发言人 问：在三月底四月初，美国对俄铝进行制裁有何影响？ 发言人 答：这次制裁力度较以往不同，以往交易所并未限制俄铝交割，不会影响其在海外市场正常流 动。但这次罗门交易所限制交割后，未来会有越来越多的俄铝货物进入中国市场，导致海外供应出现缺 口，同时中国市场原铝供应增加，内外商品价格会出现较大价差。 未知发言人 问：如何弥补这种内外商品价格的巨大价差？ 未知发言人 答：若不受限制，市场内的套利资金将通过买高卖低进行套利操作。但铝的出口受15%关税 约束，因此需要通过铝材出口来弥补内外市场价差。 未知发言人 问：铝材出口对明泰铝业会有何影响？ ...