本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 02:31 PM GMT China Tourism Group Duty Free | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) From To Price Target HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Base Case HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Updated Components EPS Investment Thesis Bull Base Bear Scenarios Risk Reward for China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) has been updated. Reason for change In 2024, Hainan was the major drag on China's travel retail market with offline duty- free (DF) sal ...

Industry Overview * **WFE Market**: Expected to contract in 2025 with a -6% YoY growth rate, but expected to recover with a +6% growth rate in 2026. [4] * **Front-End SPE**: Demand is solid for cleaning equipment, particularly from companies like Tokyo Electron and SCREEN Holdings. [8] * **Back-End SPE**: Demand is more robust than front-end, driven by strong demand for AI devices and CoWoS applications. [9] * **Advanced Packaging**: Evolving rapidly with various types of advanced chip package technologies like 3D, 2.5D, and 2.1D/2.2D/2.3D. [10] * **Hybrid Bonding**: Increasingly adopted in advanced packaging, with Disco leading in hybrid bonding systems. [12] * **Plasma Dicing**: A promising technology in hybrid bonding, with KLA leading in commercialization and Panasonic Connect pursuing the technology. [15] Company Analysis * **Advantest**: Tester market bottomed out and expected to grow as demand for devices with long test times increases. Target P/E of 20.0x. [21] * **Disco**: Strong position in hybrid bonding processes with several systems for high-cleanliness grinders and edge trimmers. Target P/E of 25.1x. [18] * **Tokyo Electron**: Production lines for cleaning systems at full capacity, expecting high demand to continue. [8] * **SCREEN Holdings**: Production lines for cleaning systems at full capacity, expecting high demand to continue. [8] Risks * **Upside Risks**: SiC related equipment taking off, growth for HBM grinders, recovery in smartphone and semiconductor markets. [19, 22] * **Downside Risks**: Sluggish global demand for electronics, longer replacement cycle for smartphones, commoditization of SPEs. [20, 23]

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Insurance Sector 2025 outlook: weathering the challenges VNB growth to moderate; P&C underwriting profit to recover Following a surprisingly strong 2024 (listed insurers' VNB: +32%, UBS-e), we expect VNB growth to moderate in 2025. For Q1, we expect jumpstart sales performance to diverge across insurers. For the rest of year, while life insurance sales would continue to benefit from the savings glut, we see multiple challenges t ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 8 January 2025 Asian Autos Chinese Autos: 2025 Outlook. The year of deepening rifts — Few winners and many losers. Eunice Lee, CFA +852 2918 5737 eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA +852 2918 7896 yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Frankie Fong +852 2123 2637 frankie.fong@bernsteinsg.com We expect the Chinese autos industry to see 1% volume growth for 2025, and reach c.27.5mn units, comprising c.22.1mn units (-1%) for the domestic market and c.5.4mn units (+10%) for expo ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 02:00 PM GMT Thematics Venture Vision: AI & One- Person-Unicorns? A year ago, Sam Altman suggested that AI could catalyse the era of one-person billion-dollar start-ups. Perhaps. But our latest AI mapping work and the Census Bureau's fortnightly AI survey show larger companies have initially stolen a march. Last night we published our third global AI mapping report, covering >3700 global stocks. One angle of analysis - not pursued in that report - is t ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research First Read (3) Total amount of the 2025 subsidies will be significantly increased, on top of 2024 ones (RMB150bn special CGB fund covering six consumer goods, including home appliances). Details would be announced on the Two Sessions in March 2025. Noteworthy, the Central government has already issued a fund of RMB81bn to support consumer goods trade-in recently before the announcement of 2025 subsidies. This is beyond market expectat ...

Summary of US Enterprise Hardware and Networking Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US Enterprise Hardware and Networking sector, particularly in relation to AI infrastructure investments for 2025 and beyond [2][3][11]. Key Companies Mentioned - **Dell Technologies (DELL)**: Rated as a "Buy" with a price target of $158, expected to benefit significantly from the AI server market and projected to achieve at least 10% revenue growth in ISG for 2025 [6][16]. - **TD SYNNEX (SNX)**: Rated as a "Buy" with a price target of $150, anticipated to see 5% growth in billings and return 50% of free cash flow to shareholders [6][16]. - **Arista Networks**: Neutral rating, expected to see conservative revenue growth due to its exposure to hyperscalers [4][8]. - **Celestica**: Neutral rating, also expected to have conservative estimates due to significant exposure to major tech companies [4][8]. - **Cisco**: Mentioned as a vendor benefiting from AI-related investments [3][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Infrastructure Investments**: Strong investments in AI infrastructure are expected to continue into 2025 and the first half of 2026, with data center capital expenditures projected to increase by approximately 33% in 2025 and 23% in 2026 [3][8]. - **Ethernet Switch Market Growth**: The market for AI back-end ethernet switches is expected to grow from approximately $1 billion in 2024 to $3.4 billion in 2025, driven by increased demand for AI workloads [3][39]. - **Revenue and Earnings Revisions**: Unlike 2024, where AI stocks benefited from both revenue growth and multiple expansions, 2025 is expected to focus more on "beat and raise" quarters due to elevated valuations [4][12]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is currently pricing in strong investments in AI infrastructure, particularly among hyperscalers, while traditional tech companies are experiencing more modest valuations [8][12]. Financial Projections - **Dell**: Projected free cash flow growth of 15% in 2025 and low double digits in 2026, with shares trading at 12% of CY26E free cash flow [6][16]. - **TD SYNNEX**: Expected to achieve roughly 10% EPS growth, with its AI infrastructure business projected to grow to several billion dollars in revenue [6][16]. - **CDW**: Revenue and EPS estimates have been trimmed due to macroeconomic headwinds, with a new price target of $220 [5][7]. Potential Risks - **Valuation Concerns**: Elevated valuations of AI-exposed companies may limit further multiple expansions, making stock selection critical for 2025 [12][30]. - **Consumer Demand for AI Products**: Limited consumer interest in generative AI features for smartphones, particularly for Apple, may hinder growth expectations [8][46]. Other Important Insights - **AI Back-End vs. Front-End Investments**: The distinction between back-end and front-end AI investments is crucial, with back-end spending expected to grow significantly while front-end investments are also anticipated to increase [41][42]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market has shifted focus to secondary AI-related companies, with significant price appreciation observed in companies like Nvidia and Dell, while traditional tech companies face de-rating risks [22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the expected trends, financial projections, and potential risks within the US Enterprise Hardware and Networking sector as it relates to AI investments.