You've done the work of saving for retirement, but now that you've reached your golden years, do you have a plan for how you'll spend down your nest egg? Key Takeaways This is because withdrawals of investment earnings from Roth IRAs are tax-free. In contrast, you must pay ordinary income tax on both your investment earnings and any contributions you withdraw from a traditional 401(k). Related Education For future retirees, Morningstar suggests withdrawing 3.9% of your portfolio the first year and then adju ...

Core Insights - Young people are facing significant challenges in the job market, with a higher unemployment rate for recent college graduates at 4.8% compared to 4.0% for all workers, indicating potential long-term negative consequences for this demographic [1][3]. Group 1: Job Market Conditions - The current job market for recent graduates is the worst compared to the general workforce, despite not being the worst overall in history [3]. - Companies are slowing down hiring due to economic uncertainties, which is making it difficult for new graduates to secure jobs [3][4]. - Experts suggest that young job seekers should remain flexible and broaden their job search beyond specific roles or industries to improve their chances of employment [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Historical data indicates that entering the labor market during a downturn can lead to persistent declines in earnings and adverse health outcomes for young individuals [5][6]. - The current economic climate, while not in recession, poses risks for new graduates, as previous studies show long-term negative effects on earnings and overall well-being for those who start their careers in challenging conditions [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Insights - There is speculation that the rise of AI may be impacting entry-level job availability, but experts argue that economic policy uncertainties, such as tariffs, may be a more significant factor [4]. - Growth in sectors like healthcare presents opportunities for graduates, as these industries continue to hire despite broader market challenges [8].

The AI boom has driven much of the stock market's growth in the last few years, but many AI stocks have taken a hit lately amid worries about a brewing bubble. Broadcom's drop Friday—even after a strong earnings print—could be taken as a signal of flagging support for the sector. Shares of Broadcom were down nearly 9% in recent trading, leading decliners on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. AI investor favorites Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), and Palantir (PLTR) also lost ground, as worries abo ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant divisions among its officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with projections indicating only one cut in 2026, reflecting a wide range of individual forecasts from policymakers [1][10] - A notable minority of seven Fed officials oppose cutting rates in 2026, while eight anticipate at most two cuts next year, and four are considering more aggressive actions [2][10] - The upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining whether a consensus can be reached or if divisions will deepen [3] Economic Outlook - The Fed's median forecasts predict real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.8% in September, despite a slower anticipated growth of 1.7% for 2025 [7][10] - Fed officials expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% by year-end but project it will decrease back to 4.4% by the end of 2026 [11] - Inflation is expected to decline towards the Fed's 2% target, with forecasts suggesting a deceleration to 2.5% in 2026, slightly better than the previous estimate of 2.6% [12][11] Policy Dynamics - The next Fed chair will face challenges in unifying a committee with a strong hawkish presence, as the current chair's term ends in May [4][6] - President Trump has expressed a desire for lower interest rates, which may influence the selection of the next Fed chair [5][6] - Analysts predict that while the Fed may pause rate cuts in January, further reductions are likely later in the year, with expectations of a 25-basis-point cut in March and June [16][17]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to a muted reaction in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remaining flat at 6.43% and slightly dipping to 6.39% [2][10] - The current mortgage rates are near their lowest levels since October 2024, having recently hit a 14-month low of 6.34% [3][10] - Mortgage rates do not always move in tandem with the Fed's actions, as they are influenced by a broader set of factors including inflation expectations, housing demand, and the overall economic outlook [5][10] Mortgage Rate Dynamics - The bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, is the primary driver of 30-year mortgage rates, which can lead to independent movements from the Fed's rate changes [6][7] - Historical examples show that mortgage rates can rise even when the Fed cuts rates, as seen in late 2024 when rates surged despite a full percentage point cut by the Fed [7][10] Implications for Homebuyers and Homeowners - Homebuyers are advised to proceed with purchases when financially ready, as timing the mortgage market is nearly impossible and waiting for ideal conditions may result in missed opportunities [11][12] - The outlook for mortgage rates suggests stability, with projections indicating rates will hover in the low-6% range through 2026, reducing the likelihood of significant declines [12] - Existing homeowners considering refinancing should evaluate whether the new rate sufficiently offsets refinancing costs, particularly if their current mortgage rates are in the high-7% or 8% range [13][14]

Core Insights - Foreclosure activity in the U.S. has increased by 21% in November 2025 compared to the same month last year, with one in every 3,992 housing units facing foreclosure filings [2][8] - The rise in foreclosures indicates growing financial stress among households, which could affect credit conditions, housing affordability, and overall economic resilience [3][4] - The impact of rising foreclosures on housing supply will vary by state due to differences in local laws and market conditions [5][10] Foreclosure Trends - November marked the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity, reflecting a trend of normalization in the housing market amid higher housing costs and economic pressures [4][8] - States with the highest foreclosure activity include Delaware, South Carolina, Nevada, New Jersey, and Florida, with cities like Philadelphia, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Orlando, and Tampa showing elevated levels [6][8] Market Dynamics - The potential increase in housing supply due to foreclosures is expected to be localized, particularly in markets experiencing rapid delinquency and foreclosure activity [6][10] - The timeline for properties to reach the market post-foreclosure varies significantly between judicial and non-judicial states, affecting when price impacts may be observed [9][10] Demographic Insights - Rising foreclosure rates among borrowers with government-backed FHA loans highlight a growing disparity between wealthier and lower-income homebuyers [10][11]

Core Insights - Inflation is expected to worsen before improving, with the Federal Reserve closely monitoring prices and tariffs before adjusting interest rates [1][8] - The Fed anticipates that tariff-driven inflation will influence its interest rate decisions, potentially leading to prolonged higher rates that could slow economic growth [3][8] Inflation Projections - The Federal Reserve projects the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to decrease to 2.4% by 2026, down from a previous forecast of 2.6% [4] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is also expected to decline slightly [4] Tariff Impact - The effects of President Trump's tariffs on inflation are just beginning to manifest, with goods inflation primarily occurring in sectors affected by these tariffs [2][5] - Powell indicated that inflation from goods is likely to peak in the first quarter, with a potential decrease in the latter half of the next year if no new tariffs are introduced [6][7] Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed is likely to maintain current interest rates for several months to assess the impact of inflation before making further cuts [9] - Fed officials project only one additional quarter-point rate cut next year, with market participants not expecting significant rate cuts before late April [10] Economic Data Dependency - Future interest rate decisions will heavily rely on upcoming economic data and may be influenced by potential leadership changes at the Fed [12]

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the fed funds rate by a quarter point for the third consecutive meeting to stabilize the job market, but upcoming leadership changes may influence future rate decisions [2][4][10] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy Changes - The impending end of Chair Jerome Powell's term in May raises questions about the future direction of the Fed under new leadership, which could lead to different interest rate policies [2][4][10] - Market participants are increasingly focusing on the opinions of the incoming Fed chair rather than Powell's guidance as his term concludes [4][6] - The new leadership may align with President Trump's preference for lower interest rates, as indicated by market pricing for additional rate cuts compared to the Fed's projections [6][7][9] Group 2: Economic Projections and Market Reactions - The Fed's projections for future rate cuts have been complicated by a government shutdown that delayed key economic data, making it harder to assess the current economic landscape [8][9] - Financial markets are pricing in lower future interest rates than the Fed's forecasts, likely due to expectations of a more dovish approach from Trump's nominee for Fed chair [9][10] - The upcoming changes in the voting committee, with new members potentially being more hawkish, could further impact interest rate decisions [10][11] Group 3: Strategic Considerations for Powell - In his final months, Powell may focus on maintaining the Fed's independence and credibility rather than committing to specific rate cuts, as he navigates the transition to new leadership [12]

Core Insights - The AI trade has recently faced challenges, with Broadcom's quarterly results failing to reignite investor enthusiasm despite surpassing expectations [1][3][7] Company Performance - Broadcom reported a record quarterly revenue of $18.02 billion, reflecting a 28% year-over-year increase, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.95, exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.88 [4] - The company anticipates continued momentum, projecting first-quarter revenue of $19.1 billion, which is above analysts' estimates [5] Dividend and Stock Performance - Broadcom's board approved a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.65 for fiscal 2026, marking the 15th consecutive year of dividend increases [6] - As of Thursday's close, Broadcom shares have gained approximately 75% of their value in 2025 [6] Market Context - Oracle's disappointing earnings and concerns over its debt have negatively impacted confidence in the tech sector, affecting the AI trade [2][3][7]

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly skeptical about AI-driven growth, particularly following Oracle's disappointing earnings report, which raised concerns about an AI bubble fueled by debt-laden investments [1][3][8] Company Performance - Oracle's shares fell nearly 15%, reaching six-month lows, after a period of significant growth where they doubled in value from January to early September [1] - The company's backlog increased by nearly $70 billion last quarter, totaling $523 billion, but concerns remain about reliance on OpenAI for future revenue [5][6] Market Reaction - Other AI-related stocks, including Nvidia, Palantir, and Broadcom, also experienced declines of over 3% [2] - The market's reaction indicates a shift towards demanding tangible proof of AI's commercial benefits rather than accepting optimistic narratives [3][8] Investment Concerns - Oracle's capital expenditures reached $12 billion last quarter, exceeding Wall Street's expectations by $4 billion, and the full-year capex target was raised to $50 billion from $35 billion [7] - Analysts express concerns about Oracle's ability to convert its growing backlog into sustainable revenue, with some describing the situation as a "show-me story" [8] Debt Financing - Oracle has heavily financed its data center expansion, selling $18 billion in debt in September, one of the largest bond sales by a tech company [9] - There is a growing trend of investors bidding up Oracle's credit default swaps, indicating increased concern over the company's debt obligations [9]