Core Insights - The AI megatrend is not limited to tech stocks but is influencing all sectors, including transportation, telecom, fast food, and finance [2][3] - Investors must evaluate their portfolios through the lens of AI, as it is a critical factor for growth and operational efficiency [3][6] AI Market Trends - President Trump's AI Action Plan aims to reduce regulatory hurdles and invest billions to maintain U.S. leadership in AI development [8] - Estimates suggest that generative AI could contribute between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion annually to the economy, with Goldman Sachs predicting a $7 trillion increase in global GDP over the next decade [15] Company Performance - Palantir (PLTR) has seen an 81% increase in stock value this year, driven by its focus on AI and data analytics [11][10] - Coherent (COHR), recommended as an AI builder stock, has rebounded over 70% since being identified as oversold, with strong growth prospects [13][14] Robotics and Automation - The global population of industrial robots is expected to grow from over 4 million to more than 6 million within three years, indicating a significant trend in automation [17] - Teradyne (TER) is positioned to benefit from AI-driven automation and has already seen over a 10% increase since its recommendation in early July [19]

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant legislative change regarding the expensing of research and development (R&D) costs for U.S. companies, which is expected to have a major impact on corporate financials starting in 2025 [4][6][7] - The new rule allows companies to deduct R&D expenses immediately in the year they are incurred, reversing the previous requirement to amortize these costs over five years [6][7] - This change is anticipated to enhance the appearance of earnings and cash flow for companies, potentially leading to increased investor interest and higher stock valuations [8][9] Group 2 - Lyft is highlighted as a company that will benefit from the new R&D expensing rule, as it spends approximately $375 million annually on U.S. R&D, which will now positively impact its reported income [11][12] - Unity Software, with a high R&D-to-revenue ratio of nearly 70%, is expected to see a significant improvement in its profitability and cash flow metrics due to the new expensing rule [13][14] - Snap Inc. is identified as a sleeper stock that could surprise investors with improved earnings per share (EPS) as a result of the new R&D expensing treatment [17][19] Group 3 - Palantir Technologies is noted for its strong R&D spending, which will now enhance its reported earnings quality and free cash flow optics under the new rules [20][21] - Rivian Automotive, despite being a cash-burning EV manufacturer, is expected to benefit from the ability to immediately expense its R&D costs, improving its perceived stability [22][23] - The article emphasizes that these opportunities may not be immediately recognized by the market, suggesting a potential for significant gains as analysts adjust their models [24][25]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3%, surpassing the revised May figure of 0.2%, with an annual rate of 2.6% compared to 2.4% in May [2][3] - Core PCE also rose by 0.3% in June, maintaining a yearly increase of 2.8%, which reflects a larger increase in May than initially reported [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have decreased from 47.7% to 39.2% following the PCE report, indicating a shift in market expectations [3] - Markets reacted positively to news of a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressing confidence in finalizing the agreement [4][5] Group 3: Company Earnings - Meta and Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings, with Meta's stock rising by 12% and Microsoft's by 5% following their earnings announcements [7] - Both companies are heavily investing in artificial intelligence, with Meta projecting capital expenditures between $66 billion and $72 billion for the year, and Microsoft expecting over $30 billion in capital expenditures for the fiscal first quarter [8][9] Group 4: AI Impact on Employment - AI is projected to potentially eliminate 20 to 30 million U.S. jobs by 2035, representing nearly 20% of the current U.S. payroll employment of around 160 million jobs [11][14] - Jobs at high risk of automation include administrative support, customer service, and transportation, with significant portions of these roles likely to be displaced [12][16] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Companies involved in AI infrastructure and applications are seen as key investment opportunities, with a focus on those that will benefit from the transition to a robotic workforce [25][26] - Investors are advised to be selective with AI stocks, as not all companies labeled as "AI" will be long-term winners, emphasizing the need to differentiate between hype and substance [28]

Market Outlook - Veteran trader Jonathan Rose is shorting tech stocks due to a complacent market ahead of significant economic catalysts, including the Fed's rate decision and major tech earnings [1][2][3] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, is currently below 15, indicating low expected turbulence, which is concerning given the upcoming events that could trigger volatility [2][3] Trading Strategy - To mitigate risk, a defined-risk put spread on QQQ (the Nasdaq ETF) is being implemented, allowing for profit from rising volatility or a short-term pullback while capping exposure [4][5] - The strategy does not require a significant drop in tech stock prices; a rise in uncertainty alone could make the put profitable [5] Earnings and Economic Reports - Key earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are scheduled, along with the FOMC meeting and employment data, which could impact market volatility [7] Seasonal Trends - Historical data suggests a short-term bearish outlook for the S&P 500, with a peak expected this week, followed by a decline until October 2, after which a rebound is anticipated [9][11][12] Gold Market Analysis - Gold is forming a bullish "ascending triangle" pattern, indicating a potential breakout if it surpasses the resistance level around $3,430, supported by increased trading volume [14][16][20] - The seasonality tool forecasts that gold prices have historically risen during specific windows, suggesting a favorable trading environment for gold in the coming months [17] Tesla's Market Position - Tesla faces significant challenges, including increased competition from Chinese manufacturers like BYD, which offers more affordable EVs, and the end of federal electric vehicle tax credits [21][22][23] - Analysts suggest that Tesla's production goals for its Optimus robots are lagging, further complicating its market position [24][26]

Market Overview - The stock market is entering a "danger zone," particularly in August, which is historically a poor month for American equity markets [2][5] - TradeSmith's Trade Cycles system indicates that many stocks associated with early summer rallies tend to decline as fall approaches [2][3] Company Insights - Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE) is highlighted as a strong buy due to its position as the largest U.S. options exchange and its monopoly over VIX equity contracts, which are essential for traders seeking to hedge positions [6][7] - Cboe has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the third quarter, with a 4.7% average beat compared to 1.8% in the second quarter, indicating a "slow burn" of rising share prices from June 17 to September 10 [8] Seasonal Trends - The summer months see reduced liquidity, with daily trading volumes averaging 9.3 billion shares in August, about 30% lower than March's 13.2 billion [5] - Gasoline refining companies like Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) typically see gains of up to 7% due to increased road trips during the summer [10][11] - O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is recommended for its longer seasonal bull cycle, benefiting from repairs needed before and after road trips, and showing strong growth compared to competitors [12][13] Financial Performance - O'Reilly reported a 9.1% growth rate in its professional segment and a 3.5% growth rate in the do-it-yourself segment, outperforming competitors [13] - O'Reilly's distribution network and knowledgeable staff contribute to its competitive advantage, allowing it to meet demand quickly [14][15] Investment Strategy - O'Reilly's shares are trading at a premium, with a forward earnings ratio of 32X compared to competitors' 17.5X, suggesting a justified value closer to $70 [16] - The Trade Cycles system provides insights on optimal buying and selling times, recommending holding ORLY through early September before exiting [16][20]

Silver Market Insights - Silver has recently reached a price of $39.06 per ounce, marking a 20% increase since early May, while gold has only increased by less than 5% during the same period [2] - The gold-to-silver ratio, which averaged around 60:1 from 2000 to 2020, is currently at 86 and falling, indicating a bullish outlook for silver [4][3] - The global silver market is experiencing a deficit of approximately 117 million ounces in 2024, continuing a trend of undersupply for five consecutive years [7] - Silver's role in the clean energy transition, particularly in solar panel production and electrification, is driving demand, while its price remains historically low [8] - Technically, silver has achieved a 14-year high with strong trading volume, suggesting potential for further gains towards the 2012 peak of $48, representing a 23% increase from current levels [9] The Metals Company (TMC) - TMC has seen a significant stock increase of 268% in less than two months, driven by its focus on polymetallic nodules rich in critical metals essential for clean energy [12][14] - TMC benefits from government backing and has a first-mover advantage with its fully filed ISA exploitation application and U.S. permit request [15] - The strategic investment of $85.2 million from Korea Zinc Co. enhances TMC's operational capabilities and reduces risks associated with downstream operations [18] Amazon's Market Position - Amazon is facing challenges due to its reliance on Chinese goods, with up to 70% of its products sourced from China, making it vulnerable to tariffs [23] - The cloud service division of Amazon has missed analyst expectations for three consecutive quarters, prompting significant capital investment from CEO Jeff Bezos [24] - A recommendation has been made to sell Amazon and consider investing in a lesser-known online retailer projected to be significantly more profitable by 2027 [25]

Trade Frameworks and Tariffs - The U.S. has established significant trade frameworks with the Philippines and Japan, with the Philippines receiving a slight reduction in tariffs from 20% to 19% on U.S. exports [2] - Japan's tariffs on imports, including autos, will be capped at 15%, avoiding the previously threatened 25%+ tariffs, in exchange for a commitment of $550 billion in U.S. investment [3] - The European Union has threatened to impose 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of U.S. goods if no deal is reached by the August deadline [3] Neuromorphic Computing - Neuromorphic computing represents a potential leap in AI technology, mimicking biological neural networks to improve computing efficiency and energy consumption [5][6] - Intel's Loihi 2 chip can perform certain AI tasks using up to 100 times less power than traditional chips, indicating significant advancements in this field [7] - Companies like BrainChip Holdings (BRCHF) and IBM are highlighted as key players in neuromorphic computing, with BrainChip's Akida chip already in use for smart sensors and defense applications [9][10] Investment Opportunities - Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is positioned as a major player in AI technologies, with a focus on disrupting Nvidia's market dominance through competitive pricing and performance [15][16] - AMD's data center segment has shown a 69% year-over-year growth, contributing significantly to its gross operating income [16] - The seasonality tool from TradeSmith suggests potential bearish trends in the market, indicating strategic timing for investments in stocks like Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) [19][20]

Group 1: Trade Cycles Overview - Trade Cycles is a new trading strategy developed by TradeSmith, which identifies seasonal market trends with high accuracy [1][2] - The tool has become essential for quantitative analysis, helping to pinpoint optimal buying times based on historical data [2][3] Group 2: Seasonal Recommendations - The back-to-school season is projected to significantly boost sales for retailers, with companies like Carter's Inc. (CRI) potentially seeing a 30% increase, while Target Corp. (TGT) may experience a 5% revenue boost [6] - Despite the seasonal potential, Carter's and Target face challenges due to tariff threats, leading to negative sentiment and forecasts of profit declines [7] - Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) is recommended as a more attractive investment opportunity, historically rising 5% on average during summer months, with a notable 60% surge between July and November in 2024 [8][9] Group 3: Enphase Energy Insights - Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) has shown a significant seasonal pattern, with stock surging 42% during summer months in the past, but facing a decline during President Biden's term [15][16] - Current market conditions suggest a favorable environment for Enphase, with shares trading at 16X forward earnings, significantly lower than the Biden-era average of 45X [17] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from increasing solar demand, with 69% of new electric generating capacity expected to be solar by 2025 [18][19] Group 4: Vail Resorts Analysis - Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) typically sees stock price increases of 7.4% during the winter months, but the best buying opportunity is in September when season passes are sold at peak prices, leading to an average increase of 10.5% from September to November [22][23]

Industry Overview - Drone maker stocks are experiencing significant growth, with Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) up 40% in the last month and 80% over the last six months [1] - Drones are playing a crucial role in modern warfare, particularly in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent Israel-Iran tensions, leading to increased defense spending focused on drone technology [2][3] Defense Spending Trends - The U.S. Defense Secretary announced a major drone initiative, emphasizing that drones represent a significant battlefield innovation [2] - NATO members have committed to spending 5% of their GDP on defense and security by 2035, with a substantial portion allocated to drone technology [2] Stock Performance - KTOS has shown remarkable returns, with a total trade return of 250% as of the latest update, reflecting the compounding effect of momentum trading [6][8] - Palladyne AI (PDYN), another drone-related stock, has surged 48% recently, with recommendations to lock in profits due to its overbought status [9][10] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by individual stocks experiencing significant surges, despite major indexes being at all-time highs [13] - The combination of fundamental and seasonal strength is highlighted as a strategy for identifying potential investment opportunities [15][19]

Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed flat wholesale prices in June, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase, with Core PPI also flat [1][2] - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates that tariffs are not currently reigniting inflation, although this could change as businesses adjust to tariff impacts [2] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Continued soft inflation presents challenges for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, making it difficult to defend a "wait and see" approach on interest rates [3] - The consensus suggests that the Fed will not cut rates in the upcoming July meeting, but a dovish statement may signal a potential rate cut in September [4] Market Movements and Investment Opportunities - A significant investment from the Pentagon into MP Materials, amounting to $400 million, has positioned the company as a strategic player, leading to a 51% stock increase [11] - Following this, Apple announced a $500 million investment in MP Materials, causing shares to rise another 10% [12] Trading Strategies - Jonathan Rose's trading approach focuses on Unusual Options Activity (UOA), which has led to substantial returns for subscribers, including a 700% return on a recent trade [7][14] - A new trading opportunity has been identified in NioCorp Developments Ltd., which is advancing a critical minerals project in Nebraska, aligning with increasing demand in defense and energy sectors [15][16] Seasonal Trading Insights - The seasonality trading tool developed by TradeSmith analyzes historical patterns to identify optimal trading windows, providing a potential edge for investors [22][23] - Examples include Amazon's stock, which has historically risen from May 24 to July 13, with an average return of +10.2% over the last 15 years [23][24]