Drones are down – is this a good entry point?… how Jonathan Rose sizes up the opportunity set… the economics behind humanoids aren’t good for humans… Louis Navellier and Luke Lango are bullish on NVDA earnings tomorrowBetween November 20 and January 22, the REX Drone Economy ETF (DRNZ) soared 57%.Since then, the air has come out of it. From that highwater mark through the start of the month, it fell 22%.While it’s rebounded somewhat, it remains almost 15% below its January peak. So, has the story changed he ...

The court limits Trump’s tariff power… the White House hits back with a 15% blanket tariff… how will it all play out?… digging into the portfolio implicationsLast month in the Digest, we laid out three possible ways the Supreme Court could rule on President Donald Trump’s global tariffs:Path #1: The court upholds the tariffsPath #2: Tariffs are struck down (narrow ruling)Path #3: Tariffs are struck down (broad power ruling)On Friday, we got our answer…In a 6–3 decision written by Chief Justice John Roberts, ...

Tom Yeung here with your Sunday Digest. Last week, I warned that insiders in two key industries were selling unusual amounts of their company’s stock. Data centers. The phenomenal growth story is now facing margin compression as cloud customers begin to cut back. Insiders at Oracle Corp. (ORCL) and CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) sold an unusual number of shares, and we learned this week that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK) dumped 75% of its Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) holdings last quarter. Airlines. American consumers mig ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the risks associated with high valuations in the stock market, comparing it to homes on Cape Cod that are eroding into the ocean, suggesting that eventually, high-flying stocks will decline [2][3] - It highlights the importance of recognizing when to exit investments, using the example of a couple who sold their Cape Cod home for $5.5 million before it was demolished [4] - The article introduces Marc Chaikin, who predicts a potential market downturn, particularly in tech companies, and emphasizes that only 1.8% of companies may remain unaffected [5][6] Company-Specific Insights - Insider selling at Oracle Corp. (ORCL) includes significant sales by executives, indicating potential caution regarding the company's future performance [7][8] - CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) has seen a rapid pace of insider selling, which is historically a bearish sign, suggesting that the company may face challenges ahead [8][9] - Delta Airlines Inc. (DAL) has experienced substantial insider selling, with executives offloading nearly 2 million shares, raising concerns about consumer demand and the company's valuation [15][16][18] Market Trends - The article notes a decline in producer prices in the cloud computing sector, indicating potential pricing pressures for companies like Oracle and CoreWeave that are heavily invested in AI data centers [12][14] - Retail sales data shows a slowdown, with existing home sales dropping by 8.4% in January, suggesting a potential decrease in consumer spending [19][20] - The insider buy/sell ratio has fallen to 0.24, one of the lowest levels on record, indicating that executives are selling more than they are buying, which may signal a market peak [24]

Core Insights - President Trump announced "Project Vault," establishing a $12 billion U.S. critical mineral reserve, significantly impacting rare earth stocks, particularly Critical Metals Corp. (CRML), which surged 35% following the announcement [1][3][4] Group 1: Project Vault and Its Implications - Project Vault represents a strategic initiative to stockpile critical minerals, akin to a Strategic Petroleum Reserve, ensuring the U.S. government becomes a major buyer in the rare earth sector [4][5] - The program is financed with $10 billion from the Export-Import Bank and $2 billion in private capital, targeting materials essential for AI, electric vehicles, and defense systems [5][6] - The initiative guarantees federal purchases, providing demand certainty that is crucial for mining projects to secure financing and advance operations [5][11] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Geopolitical Context - China dominates the rare earth market, controlling approximately 70% of global mining and 90% of refining capacity, creating dependency for critical U.S. industries [6][7] - The U.S. has historically relied on China for these materials, which poses risks during trade disputes, highlighting the need for domestic production capabilities [6][12] Group 3: Companies Positioned to Benefit - MP Materials (MP) operates the only functioning rare earth mine in the U.S. and is expanding into refining [7][8] - USA Rare Earth (USAR) is developing the Round Top project in Texas, focusing on heavy rare earths for military applications [8] - Energy Fuels (UUUU) processes rare earths at its White Mesa Mill in Utah, one of the few U.S. facilities capable of producing separated oxides [8] - Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) controls the Tanbreez deposit in Greenland, aligning with U.S. efforts to diversify supply sources [8] - American Rare Earths (ARRN) is advancing the Halleck Creek project in Wyoming, responding to defense procurement rules that limit Chinese materials [8] Group 4: Broader Industrial Ecosystem - The development of domestic rare earth capacity necessitates significant industrial infrastructure, extending opportunities beyond mining companies [9][10] - Companies like Olin (OLN) provide specialized chemicals for processing, while Caterpillar (CAT) supplies heavy equipment for mine development [10] Group 5: Future Outlook and Investor Considerations - Analysts estimate a timeframe of three to seven years for meaningful domestic capacity to materialize, with federal backing reducing financing uncertainty [11][12] - The focus for investors should be on the U.S. rebuilding its domestic capacity for critical materials, which are essential for AI, EVs, renewable energy, and military applications [12][13]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Analysis - Gold and silver have experienced significant volatility recently, with sharp rallies and pullbacks, resembling the behavior of cryptocurrencies [1][2] - Historical analysis indicates that gold's recent volatility is rare, with a notable drop of over 12% occurring only once in the last 30 years prior to the recent selloff [3] - Recoveries in gold prices tend to be measured rather than explosive, with an average rebound of modest gains over the next 120 days following significant drops [4] - Over longer holding periods, gold and silver have historically regained prior highs within about a year, adding approximately 8% on top [5] - The primary reason for holding gold is to stabilize a portfolio and hedge against inflation and fiat currency devaluation, rather than for speculative gains [6][7] Group 2: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Implications for Gold - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain substantial and widen significantly over the next decade due to rising debt costs, an aging population, and healthcare obligations [9][10] - By 2036, the annual deficit is expected to exceed $3 trillion, representing 6.7% of GDP, with federal interest costs projected to be the highest since at least 1940 [11][12] - The unsustainable fiscal trajectory suggests that governments may resort to raising taxes, cutting benefits, or printing more money, all of which could negatively impact purchasing power [13] - In light of these fiscal challenges, maintaining a portion of a portfolio in gold is considered a prudent strategy, as it has historically survived previous debt cycles [14] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Technology - Jonathan Rose highlights a bullish outlook on copper due to high demand from AI data center developments, suggesting a potential investment opportunity in POET Technologies Inc. [15][16] - POET Technologies specializes in high-speed optical engines and is positioned to benefit from the shift towards optical interconnects in data centers, which could lead to significant growth [17][18] - The company is currently valued under a billion dollars, presenting a potential multi-bagger opportunity if adoption of its technology materializes as anticipated [18]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3% and average hourly earnings rising by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year [1][2] - However, a significant revision revealed that the U.S. had nearly 900,000 fewer payroll jobs in the previous year than initially reported, leading to a downward revision of total job growth in 2025 from +584,000 to +181,000 [3] Labor Market Dynamics - Despite the positive job growth, employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, marking a 118% increase from the previous year and the highest January total since 2009 [4] - Hiring plans were also at a low, with only 5,306 plans announced, down 13% from the same month last year and 49% from December 2025 [4][5] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Retail sales were flat in December, with a decline in the control group that directly impacts GDP, indicating a mixed consumer picture [6] - Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, fell to 57.3, significantly lower than the previous year's 64.7, highlighting a K-shaped recovery where asset owners benefit while lower-income households struggle [7][8] Structural Changes in the Economy - The labor market is experiencing structural changes, with companies increasingly relying on automation and AI to enhance productivity without necessarily increasing headcount [9][10] - This shift suggests that while job growth appears stable, the nature of work is evolving, potentially leading to fewer human jobs in the future as productivity gains come from technology rather than labor [11][12] Investment Implications - Companies are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, which is reshaping work dynamics and may lead to improved margins and earnings despite subdued hiring [14][17] - The transition towards an AI-driven economy raises concerns about long-term wage growth and consumer demand, as fewer stable incomes could constrain consumption [15][19]

Core Viewpoint - Devon Energy Corp. announced an all-stock merger with Coterra Energy Inc., creating a $58 billion energy company, raising investor questions about stock and dividend implications [1] Group 1: Dividend Implications - After the merger, the combined company plans to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.315 per share, a 31% increase from Devon's previous $0.24 per share [2] - The dividend is not legally guaranteed until declared by the board each quarter, and the merger requires shareholder approval from both companies [3] Group 2: Ownership and Control - Devon shareholders will own 54% of the merged entity, while Coterra shareholders will own 46%, allowing Devon to retain control [3] Group 3: Merger Structure and Rationale - The all-stock structure prevents an increase in debt, which is crucial given the volatility in oil and gas prices [4] - The choice of an all-stock deal is driven by debt management and market conditions, signaling confidence in the long-term value of the combined entity [5] Group 4: Strategic Focus Post-Merger - The merger aims for scale, diversification, and resilience rather than explosive production growth, focusing on operational efficiency [6] - Geographic diversification will reduce reliance on any single basin or commodity cycle [8] Group 5: Market Reactions - Wall Street reactions are mixed, with some analysts expressing long-term optimism and others remaining cautious, awaiting clearer guidance [9] Group 6: Investment Considerations - The merger may appeal to long-term income-focused investors, while short-term traders may prefer to wait for more clarity on dividends and quarterly results [11][16] Group 7: Future Milestones - Key milestones to watch include upcoming earnings reports, regulatory approvals, and shareholder votes expected in the second quarter of 2026 [12]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in tech stocks is attributed to significant capital expenditure announcements from major companies like Alphabet and Amazon, leading to a market reevaluation of investment returns in the AI sector [4][5][6] - The transition from "Stage 1" to "Stage 2" of the AI boom indicates a shift in focus from large tech companies to smaller firms that provide essential infrastructure for AI development [8][10][20] Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The S&P 500 software and services sector lost approximately $1 trillion in market value, with major players like Microsoft and Salesforce experiencing sharp declines [2][6] - Following initial losses, tech stocks rebounded significantly, cutting the week's losses in half, indicating ongoing market recovery [2] - Investors are increasingly questioning the return on investment for the substantial capital expenditures planned by major tech firms, leading to a sell-off [6][7] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Insights - Alphabet announced a capital expenditure of $13.9 billion for Q4, with projections for 2026 spending to rise to between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly doubling previous estimates [4] - Amazon's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to reach $200 billion, exceeding expectations by about $50 billion, contributing to a total of approximately $710 billion in projected spending from the top five hyperscalers [5] - This spending translates to nearly $2 billion per day being invested in data centers, chips, and networking infrastructure [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The capital flowing into AI infrastructure presents opportunities for smaller companies that manufacture the necessary components and systems, marking the beginning of "Stage 2" in the AI boom [8][10] - Companies involved in providing power systems, networking infrastructure, and memory technologies are positioned to benefit from this infrastructure spending [16] - Specific companies identified as potential winners include Arista Networks, Eaton, and Broadcom, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI infrastructure [16][18] Group 4: Challenges for Legacy Companies - The rapid advancement of AI tools raises concerns about the viability of legacy software and data services companies, which may struggle to compete with AI-driven alternatives [11][12] - Companies categorized under "KIDS" (Knowledge work, Information collection, Data analysis, Software) face significant risks as AI could render their business models obsolete or less profitable [12][13][14] - The decline in stock prices for KIDS companies, such as FactSet and Morningstar, reflects a broader market reevaluation of these business models in light of AI advancements [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in investment focus from hardware suppliers to experience-driven companies in the tech sector, particularly in the context of the iPhone and artificial intelligence [1][3][22] Group 1: iPhone Supplier Dynamics - Companies like Skyworks Solutions, Cirrus Logic, and Universal Display saw stock price surges when named as iPhone suppliers, but Apple often imposed low prices and high quality demands, leading to profitability challenges for these suppliers [2] - The real beneficiaries of the iPhone boom were companies providing services and experiences, such as Uber and ByteDance, which have outperformed traditional hardware suppliers [3] Group 2: Current AI Market Trends - A recent selloff in AI infrastructure companies, including chipmakers and data center developers, occurred due to concerns over profitability in a rapidly evolving industry [4] - Analyst Louis Navellier warns of a potential market dislocation for AI companies, suggesting that expectations for "Stage 1" infrastructure firms are overly optimistic [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in AI - A select group of "Stage 2" companies in the AI sector is believed to offer significant upside potential, with estimates of around 500% growth [6] - Thomson Reuters, with its established legal research platform, is expected to recover from a 60% selloff, as it combines AI with human expertise to maintain accuracy in legal research [9][14] - ServiceNow, which serves over 85% of Fortune 500 companies, is experiencing rapid growth with a 21% revenue increase in 2025 and projected 20% growth for the current year, driven by its AI capabilities [15][16] Group 4: Comparisons with 5G Technology - The article draws parallels between the 5G technology rollout and the current AI landscape, noting that the biggest winners are not the infrastructure providers but the companies leveraging these technologies for consumer experiences [20][21] - OpenAI's GPT-5 is highlighted as a significant advancement in AI, similar to the leap made by 5G, with the potential for "Stage 2" companies to dominate the market [22][23]