Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipated the rate cut, and the Fed did not deviate from expectations, avoiding promises of a future glide path [1] - Dissenting opinions within the FOMC are viewed positively, potentially reinforcing the Fed's independence and highlighting the committee's diverse perspectives [2] - The market anticipates a new Fed chair in May 2026, raising questions about the future interest rate landscape and the potential for more than one rate cut [3] - The Fed's reaction function is expected to remain heavily reliant on labor market data, potentially leading to more rate cuts than currently priced in if the labor market deteriorates significantly [5][6] Earnings & Market Performance - The broadening market performance over the past six months is attributed to the trajectory of earnings among different cohorts [7] - Earnings growth deceleration in mega-cap tech companies is converging with accelerating earnings growth in the rest of the market, supporting market broadening [8][9] - Despite frothy valuations, value can be found beneath the surface due to significant churn and rotation within the market [10][11][12] - A GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) approach is recommended, focusing on both value and growth factors [12] Investment Strategies - Within the Russell 2000, fading the lower quality, unprofitable components and leaning into the profitable components with better fundamentals is advised [13] - A combination of value factors (price-to-book, price-to-sales, strong balance sheets, high interest coverage) and growth factors (positive earnings trends, forward revisions, exceeding earnings expectations) is recommended [14]

what this EO allows for. Is it the sort of hope that that it will lead to the DOJ suing states like New York and California. And if that's the case, you know, the president and the administration's confidence that you'd win them.Well, that is one of the tools that is in the EO is that the DOJ um has been tasked to form a litigation task force that would have the ability to push back on excessively burdensome state laws, laws that may be unconstitutional, violate the First Amendment, things like that. By the ...

Well, that's what we're getting. The explanations. It's become a tradition lately for Fed officials to explain as soon as the blackout lifts why they dissented and the blackout has lifted.So we got a few minutes ago Austan Goolsbee, comments from the Chicago Fed saying basically people are telling him inflation worries them more than jobs. Goolsbee said almost all business people and consumers that we have spoken to in the district lately identify prices as the main concern. I remain optimistic that interes ...

Immigration Policy & Talent Acquisition - The discussion revolves around concerns regarding the potential negative impact of increased costs associated with H1-B visas on the US's ability to compete with countries like China in attracting skilled talent [1][2] - The proposed $100,000 cost for H1-B visas is viewed as a significant shift, potentially favoring wealthy companies and limiting access for individuals who are not rich or beholden to wealthy entities [1][5] - Concerns are raised that making the immigration system accessible only to the wealthy could undermine the US's historical strength as a nation built by immigrants and their descendants [1][2] - The current H1-B visa system requires sponsorship by a company that has already hired the individual, indicating a structured process, but the added cost creates an unfair advantage for wealthier companies [4][5] Geopolitical Competition - The US's ability to compete with China is questioned, particularly regarding attracting talent, as China is perceived as more welcoming without similar cost barriers [2] - Selling NVIDIA chips to China is questioned in the context of competing with China [1] Legal & Executive Authority - Executive actions, such as raising H1-B visa costs, may lack the long-term impact of legislation passed through Congress [4] - The legality of raising costs on a whim by the President is questioned [3]

Market Trend & Policy Analysis - Anticipation of President Trump directing agencies to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule three drug, similar to common painkillers, is driving market activity [2] - The potential reclassification would not legalize marijuana but could allow cannabis companies access to banking services and a different tax status [3] - The President's authority to unilaterally reclassify marijuana is limited, and the order is expected to direct the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the DEA to restart the rulemaking change process [5] - Resistance within the DEA remains a concern, potentially hindering the reclassification process [7][8] Investment Opportunities & Risks - Rescheduling is not legalization and doesn't necessarily lead to increased market share for cannabis companies; the primary impact is on the tax code, potentially reducing the tax rate from 40% to around 10-15% [9] - Legalization has a 30% chance, which would prohibit market share growth and organic growth [10] - Retail sentiment is driving some of the current market activity, as seen in the 30% increase in Canadian pot equities, even though the rescheduling primarily applies to US companies [13] - Rescheduling primarily benefits mom and pop farms, but larger companies are expected to consolidate the industry as regulations improve [15][16] Company Financials & Tax Implications - Tax relief from rescheduling is expected to be available for the 2026 tax season in 2027 [17] - The key financial impact of rescheduling is a change in the tax structure, not necessarily organic market share growth [18]

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third consecutive time this year, despite growing dissent [1] - The Fed is committed to purchasing $40 billion of Treasury bills per month [1] - The base case is a hold on further rate cuts, contingent on weakening labor market or improved inflation [3] - Markets are predicting a different path than the Fed's dot plot, with expectations of rate cuts between 3% and 3.25% [5] - There is a risk of losing Fed independence, which could cause yields to rise [17] Inflation & Labor Market - Tariffs are estimated to contribute approximately 0.5 percentage points to inflation [9] - The Fed is facing a difficult balancing act with inflation above target and a weakening labor market [8] - The Fed has delivered 175 basis points of cuts [43] Credit Market Dynamics - High-grade bond sales cooled in December, with $4.7 billion sold, a quarter below the previous period [26] - December bond sales in high yield exceeded $20 billion, the busiest December since 2020 [26] - Investment grade supply is expected to grow year-over-year, reaching approximately $1.8 trillion to $1.9 trillion in 2026 [30] - Tech supply was up 75% and is expected to double, driven by hyperscalers' CAPEX expansion [32]

Geopolitical Landscape - US is considering security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace agreement with Russia [1][5] - Ukraine is considering a referendum on ceding territory to Russia [1] - Previous security assurances, such as the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, were not honored [3][4] US Involvement - President Trump is openly discussing a US role in providing security guarantees to Ukraine [5] - The US may send a delegation to Europe for talks if progress is being made [7] - The Trump administration has expressed frustration with the pace of talks [1][7] European Perspective - European countries would like to have further talks involving a US delegation [6] - The next diplomatic developments are expected within the next 48 hours [7]

Why is there so much passion around open. I mean, is is it a matter of business or is it a matter of philosophy. The philosophy is, you know, do you believe that there's any one company or any one group that will have all of the best ideas in the world or do you believe that if you have an open ecosystem where different researchers and different groups can contribute that you will end up with a better product um overall and throughout my career I look at you know sort of the different inflection points on t ...

GLOBAL SELLING OFF, DOES THIS INDICATE OPPORTUNITY. 10 YEAR YIELDS COMING BACK TOWARDS THAT 4.20% MARK7, 4.1%. PRESSURE BUILDING ON VENEZUELA.PRES. TRUMP: THEY HAVE TREATED US BADLY AND I GUESS NOW WE ARE NOT TREATING THEM SO GOOD. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DRUG TRAFFIC, DRUG TRAFFIC BY SEA IS DOWN 92% AND NOBODY COULD FIGURE OUT WHO THE 8% IS BECAUSE I HAVE NO IDEA.ANYBODY GETTING INVOLVED IN THAT RIGHT NOW IS NOT DOING WELL AND WE WILL START THAT ON LAND, TOO. IT'S GOING TO BE STARTING ON LAND PRETTY SOON. LISA: ...

How did we get here. Yeah. So this the news of this deficit was revealed in July, but it was a long time in the making.And basically what we know about this shortfall is that it comes from escalating transportation costs, unbudgeted health care expenses, and then rising special education costs. So basically, now that the district has realized that these unbudgeted expenses are far outpacing revenues, they have to address this shortfall because in New Jersey, you cannot a school district cannot operate in a ...