And Drew, this is a market right now that has now pretty much hovered near record highs for a while. Is there a big catalyst coming up that could break us to even bigger bigger moves going into the third and fourth quarter this year. Hey, good morning, Dom.So, I think it's it's twofold really. I think actually getting a Fed cut and seeing economic data hang in there is how you can really push this market higher. Honestly, in our updated price target for the S&P, we nudged it higher to 6,600 for year end.And ...

President Trump and Russian President Putin planning to meet for peace talks in Alaska this Friday to try to attempt to end the more than three-year conflict with Russia and Ukraine. Joining us right now to talk about that and so many other issues that we need to get to. Uh Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman is here.He's of course the former US Trade Representative in the Obama administration. Good morning to you, Michael. Help us understand from your perspective whether you think a a dea ...

Market Seasonality & Trends - The market typically experiences a summer rally from May through July, with the first year of the presidential cycle showing an average increase of approximately 5.5%, this year reaching 13.8% [2] - Seasonality tends to turn negative from August through October, potentially leading to market backing and filling [2][3] - A traditional scary October drawdown is anticipated based on studied data [3] Key Technical Levels - Support levels are identified at 6100 to 6200, while resistance is around 6600 [4] - The cyclical uptrend that began in April is expected to rally into the 6400-6600 area by year-end [4] - A dip could test rising 26 and 40 week moving averages around 5900 [4][5][6] Yield Curve Analysis - The 30-year yield rebound towards 5% could be forming a rising wedge, suggesting a potential downside break towards 4.4% or even 4% [8] - The five-year yield might be forming a distribution top, indicating a potential decrease if it breaks lower [8] - Continued steepening in the yield curve is anticipated, potentially leading to 2 or 3 rate cuts this year [9] Investment Focus - The current long-term secular bull market favors larger companies, leading to outperformance of the largest stocks [10] - Growth stocks are showing strong performance versus value stocks across market caps in the US, with new relative highs for Russell 1000 growth versus Russell 1000 value, S&P growth versus S&P value, and small cap growth versus small cap value [11] - Internationally, value is breaking out versus growth, presenting a different dynamic [12]

The number of contenders for the top job at the Fed appears to be growing. The Wall Street Journal reporting that President Trump's team is looking at two additional new candidates, former uh St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Mark Summerland, former economic advisor uh to President George W.Bush. Joining us with his insights is Roger Ferguson, former Fed vice chairman as well as a CNBC contributor. Do you um have anything other than just personal feelings about these new candidates, Roger.Do you hav ...

US-China Chip Trade Dynamics - Nvidia and AMD reportedly plan to give the US government a 15% revenue share from specific chips sold in China for market access [1][4] - China questions the safety and trustworthiness of Nvidia's H20 AI chip, with state media suggesting it may pose a national security risk [2][3][9] - The US government previously restricted H20 exports to China on national security grounds, a stance later reversed by the Trump administration [4] Export Control and Negotiation - China is reportedly seeking relaxation of export controls on advanced high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips as part of tariff pause extension discussions [5][11] - The discussion includes the potential impact on Huawei's ability to develop its own AI chips if China gains access to more advanced HBM chips [11][12] Company Statements and Market Impact - Nvidia denies having backdoors in its chips that could allow remote access or control [5] - Nvidia acknowledges following US government rules for worldwide market participation but does not directly address the 15% revenue cut [6] - Chinese companies like Huawei and SMIC may benefit if local customers question Nvidia's H20, potentially leading to increased domestic chip development and sourcing [13]

Gold prices falling from a record high this after the White House announced plans to issue an executive order addressing what they're describing as misinformation about potential tariffs on gold bars. And joining us right now to discuss all of this is Ers Dur, principal uh at Zeus Industrial. Good morning to you.Uh help us understand what what what this either misinformation is or is not. Well, all I know is what we've been reading. So, let's see what the EO says.But if it is a 39% uh tariff on gold, that w ...

the push uh to get more workers back to the office and apparently finally uh it may be working. This could have some big implications for the belleaguered office market. Diana Olaf joins us now with more.How many years are we since the pandemic now getting back to the office. >> I think we're on five. We're definitely on five.But look, in just the past year, US companies made more progress in getting employees back to the office than at any time since the pand pandemic began in 2020. This is according to a ...

Well, later uh this week, the government is going to release retail uh sales data first. So, we have the CNBC NRF retail monitor for you uh ready to go this morning. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us now with the numbers.Hey, Steve. Morning, Joe. The CNBC NRF retail monitor jumped to its best monthly game since we be game before since we began assembling the data in 2022.That's a likely sign of some combination of a resilient consumer, big midsummer promotions from retailers, and possibly tari ...

The battle for top AI talent, it is in full swing among big firms like OpenAI, Metaanthropic, and as Robert Frank told us last week, it's creating billionaires at a rapid clip. Joining us right now is Alex Heath. He is the deputy editor at The Verge.Uh thank you for waking up early, Alex. Love all the things that you write. What is really going on.We talked to Sam Alman on Friday and we're trying to understand sort of how big a pool there is among these these talents and and I want to know what it is that t ...

The futures this morning are marginally uh higher. Joining us now, you can see 134 points on the Dow, Jason Trener, chairman and CEO of Strategus Research Partners, a Baird company. Um Jason, we haven't seen you in a while.Um were you surprised by either uh the the break in the averages leading into Liberation Day or with the the swiftness of the rebound to new highs following Liberation Day. Were you surprised by by e Did you predict either. I didn't I don't we didn't predict either.Uh and I think I was su ...