Job Market Trends - ADP preliminary report shows a 4-week moving average of private sector job creation down by 11,000, equating to a month-on-month change of approximately -44,000 to -45,000 [1] - The index of average weekly job growth over the four-week period ending October 25th is down by 11,000, contrasting with the previous month's increase of 42,000, suggesting a weakening in job growth [2] - NFIB small business optimism index fell 0.6% to 98.2%, the lowest since April, though still above the long-term average [3] - Plans to increase hiring among small businesses fell by 1 percentage point to 15% [3] Labor Market Challenges - Trouble with labor quality among small businesses increased by 9 percentage points to 27%, the highest since the pandemic [4] - Unfilled job openings remained unchanged, indicating a dynamic where businesses are not actively hiring but struggle to find suitable candidates [4] - Pantheon suggests that difficulties in finding workers may be linked to new immigration and deportation policies [5] Economic Outlook - The data is consistent with a low fire, low hire economy [5]

Industrial Policy & Economic Nationalism - The report critiques the Trump administration's "rule by deal" approach, where individual companies gain public investment through White House negotiations without transparency or consideration of the broader industrial landscape [3][4][5] - The report argues for a comprehensive, institutional approach to industrial policy, particularly for critical minerals, with a clear mission, institutional capacity, and streamlined processes [8][9][10] - The report highlights the need for government intervention in areas like rare earths and semiconductors due to China's dominance, emphasizing the importance of securing these industries [7][8] - The report mentions the CHIPS program, where $40 billion was allocated to semiconductor manufacturers, as an example of a thorough but slow process [11] Tariffs & Trade - The report suggests that broad tariffs across all imports can negatively impact trade and economic growth [20] - The report acknowledges that targeted tariffs, like those on electric vehicles from China, can be strategically useful [21] - The report warns that excessive tariffs could lead to higher prices for consumers and a less competitive domestic car market [22] AI & Data Centers - The report suggests caution regarding government investment in AI data centers, given the significant private capital already flowing into the sector, estimating close to $500 billion this year [15][16] - The report expresses concern about a potential bubble in the AI space due to excessive private investment [16]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed's 2% inflation target is considered by some to be above the original dual mandate, with a zero percent target preferred for pure price stability [2] - The Fed aims for stable inflation, but its track record in achieving this is questionable [3] - A little bit of deflation is considered a natural part of economic development due to technological and productivity improvements [6] - Current inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indicator, may not accurately reflect the price inflation experienced by average American families [8] - The Fed's deliberate debasement of purchasing power necessitates inflation adjustments, creating confusion [9] Interest Rates & Economic Impact - The Fed's method of curbing inflation by restricting growth is questioned, particularly its reliance on Keynesian models that ignore the impact of lower taxes and less regulation on increasing supply [12][13] - High interest rates restrict access to capital, hindering real prosperity gained through the production of goods and services [15][21] - The Fed's actions empower the government at the expense of the private sector, especially small and medium-sized businesses [14] - Lowering rates is suggested to stimulate small business hiring by improving access to capital [21] Fiscal Policy & Government - Perpetual deficit spending is viewed as immoral and corrupt, creating purchasing power based on future, unproduced goods and services [16] - A balanced budget is crucial, and the inability to manage government finances is demoralizing [22][23] Alternative Monetary Solutions - A proposal suggests Treasury should issue a gold-backed long-term bond to compensate for losses in purchasing power, potentially competing with assets like Bitcoin [17] - Relinking the dollar to gold could be a cost-effective way for the government to borrow and signal a move towards sound finances [19][20]

SoFi CEO Anthony Noto joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the launch of crypto trading on its platform, how the product stacks up against the competition, his thoughts on bitcoin and crypto, and more. ...

Employment Data Analysis - ADP preliminary report indicates a decrease of 11,000 in the 4-week moving average of private sector job creation [1] - This equates to a month-on-month decrease of approximately 44,000 to 45,000 jobs [2] - The index of average weekly job growth over the four-week period ending October 25th is down by 11,000, contrasting with the previous month's increase of 42,000, suggesting a weakening trend in October [3] - The data is consistent with a "low fire, low hire" economy [6] Small Business Sentiment - The NFIB small business optimism index fell by 0.6% to 98.2%, the lowest since April, but still above the long-term average [4] - Plans to increase hiring among small businesses decreased by 1 percentage point to 15% [4] - "Trouble with labor quality" increased by 9 percentage points to 27%, the highest since the pandemic [5] - Unfilled job openings remained unchanged, at the lowest level since the pandemic [5] Government Data and Alternative Data - The September government jobs and CPI reports are expected to be released several days after the government shutdown ends [8][9] - October data may be incomplete or unavailable due to the shutdown [9] - Alternative data may provide a more contemporary and potentially better understanding of the economy than government data, especially in light of potential inaccuracies caused by the shutdown [14][15][19]

Robert Fishman, MoffettNathanson senior research analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to break down Paramount's quarterly earnings results, the company's bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, and more. ...

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Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) Safety and Efficacy - The FDA Commissioner suggests removing black box warnings from HRT products, arguing they have unnecessarily deterred women from using these treatments [1][12] - A 2002 study led to a nearly 50% reduction in HRT use due to concerns about increased risks of heart disease and breast cancer [2] - Subsequent clinical trials have not confirmed that HRT increases breast cancer mortality, and cardiovascular complications are linked to starting HRT more than 10 years after menopause onset [4] - Starting HRT within 10 years of menopause onset can reduce heart disease risk by 30-50% and heart attack deaths by 48% [5] Benefits of HRT - HRT can alleviate menopause symptoms, which 80% of women experience, including hot flashes, night sweats, mood swings, and weight gain [6][7] - Long-term benefits of HRT include reducing cognitive decline by up to 64% and Alzheimer's risk by 35% in some studies, as well as reducing bone fracture rates [7] Considerations for HRT Use - The 2002 study had flaws, including exclusively studying women who were on average 10 years post-menopause with an average age of 63, a demographic already vulnerable to cardiovascular disease [8] - The study only evaluated one delivery method (a daily pill combining estrogen and progesterone), while delivery methods have improved since then [9] - Contraindications for HRT include a predisposing risk to blood clots or active breast cancer, but these are rare [14] - Doctors generally don't prescribe hormone therapy if you're over age 60 or more than 10 years after the onset of menopause [18] - Estrogen reduces cardiovascular risk in post-menopausal women by 30 to 50% [21]

Mike Ybarra, PrizePicks CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the company's partnership with Polymarket, the distinction between online sports betting vs. prediction markets, impact of sports betting scandals, future of prediction markets, and more. ...

Government Funding & Shutdown - A bill to fund the federal government through January needs to pass in the House and be signed by President Trump to end the shutdown [1] - The shutdown is considered a mistake with no good results worth the pain inflicted on the American people [7] - The inability to govern harms the United States' standing in the world, showing vulnerabilities to adversaries and unreliability to allies [8] - The House rules require a 48-hour reading period for bills before a vote, a reform often demanded by conservative groups [5] Veterans Affairs - Senator Moran will honor Veterans Day by ringing the opening bell at NASDAQ [1][3] - Ensuring veterans receive the things promised to them is a key responsibility [3] Political Landscape & Senate Dynamics - The House is seen as more vulnerable than the Senate for a potential shift in power [17] - There's a strong sense of dissatisfaction among the American people with the way things are [17] - Reconciliation is a narrow opportunity in the Senate rules allowing 51 senators to act, and there's talk of using it again [12][13] - The divisiveness in politics has increased, with a focus on fighting rather than solving problems [23]