Core Viewpoint - The recent focus on depreciation concerns regarding expensive GPUs and semiconductor chips is causing significant anxiety among investors, particularly in the AI sector, leading to declines in major tech indices [2][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - The Nasdaq 100 has decreased by 6.3% in recent weeks, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund has fallen over 9% due to depreciation fears [2]. - Notable short sellers, including Michael Burry and Jim Chanos, have highlighted depreciation as a critical reason for their skepticism towards the AI trade [2][3]. Group 2: Depreciation Estimates - Michael Burry estimates that Big Tech hyperscalers will understate depreciation by $176 billion from 2026 to 2028, predicting a two to three-year lifecycle for chips instead of the anticipated six years [3]. - Peter Berezin from BCA Research projects that hyperscalers will hold at least $2.5 trillion in AI assets by the end of the decade, leading to an annual depreciation expense of $500 billion, which exceeds their combined profits for 2025 [4]. Group 3: Future Projections - Kai Wu from Sparkline Capital suggests that annual depreciation values could increase from $150 billion to $400 billion over the next five years, indicating a significant financial burden on these companies [4][5]. - Wu argues that the current AI spending relative to GDP surpasses the peak of the Internet boom, although it remains below the railroad buildout peak, emphasizing the shorter useful life of AI chips [6]. Group 4: Industry Sentiment - The depreciation argument is not yet widely accepted on Wall Street or within the AI industry, with few strategists warning of such risks [6]. - Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon maintains that the depreciation accounting of major hyperscalers is reasonable, suggesting a divergence in views regarding the depreciation issue [7].

Gil Luria is the Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson. Luria joins Big Technology Podcast for a special Friday edition special report digging into the AI bubble, or whatever term you'd like to use for the questionable investment decisions in AI today. We cover all the bad stuff: debt, depreciation, and losses. We talk about Michael Burry's bet against the technology and why he might be right, and how OpenAI should play this to optimize its potential. Tune in for a comprehensive edition looking at th ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing concerns regarding the accounting practices of major tech companies, particularly in relation to their depreciation schedules for computing equipment, which may artificially inflate earnings growth [1][14][15] - Notable investors, including Michael Burry, have raised alarms about the sustainability of profits amid significant capital expenditures on AI infrastructure [1][14] - The four largest spenders on AI infrastructure—Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft—are projected to increase their combined capital expenditures by approximately 40% to $460 billion over the next year [10] Company-Specific Summaries - **Meta**: The company has extended its useful life estimates for equipment from four to five years to five and a half years, which is expected to reduce its 2025 depreciation expense by $2.9 billion. However, its stock performance has been lackluster, with only a 3% increase in 2025, significantly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index [1][6][11] - **Alphabet**: In contrast to Meta, Alphabet's stock has surged by 46% this year. The company has also adjusted its depreciation schedules, similar to other tech giants [1][11] - **Amazon**: Amazon has shortened the useful life of its server equipment from six years to five, reflecting a more conservative approach to depreciation amid rapid advancements in chip technology [7][15] - **Microsoft**: The company emphasizes the importance of continually upgrading its equipment to maximize efficiency and returns on investment. Microsoft has also extended the useful life of its assets, contributing to the ongoing debate about appropriate depreciation timelines [8][9][15] Industry Trends - The tech industry is experiencing a shift from "AI hype" to a demand for tangible results, as highlighted by market strategists [2][14] - Despite rising depreciation costs, which have increased from about $10 billion in Q4 2023 to nearly $22 billion in the most recent quarter, the overall profitability of these companies remains strong, with projected earnings growth of 27% for the "Magnificent Seven" [11][13][14] - The debate surrounding depreciation practices is intensifying as companies invest heavily in computing infrastructure, raising questions about the accuracy of reported earnings [10][15]

Artificial intelligence skepticism was growing even before legendary hedge fund manager Michael Burry, a contrarian, decided to kick a hornet's nest. First, many experts have admitted that AI is a bubble, but as a consolation, we get the opinion that it is different from the dot-com bubble, or, in the case of a former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, that it will take years to burst. Bank of America analysts usually point out that there will be no overbuilding of AI data centers, due to practical limitations suc ...

What do you make of this depreciation story. Because this is this kind of ripples back into all of this, the quickly depreciated chip. I thought anything from 2 to 6 years.So this is what Michael Barr Barry has been talking about, and this is what Cameron Crowe has has been talking about in his opinion column today, which is well worth reading because he's he's kind of drawing down a historical analysis, going back to the beginning of this century on depreciation and the spend on CapEx and how that has adju ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor Michael Burry is reaffirming his bearish stance on the AI sector, particularly targeting companies like Palantir Technologies and Nvidia, despite facing losses on his nearly $1 billion short position as stock prices have rallied [2][4]. Group 1: Earnings Overstatement Claims - Burry accuses tech giants such as Meta and Oracle of "understating depreciation" by extending the useful life of assets, which he claims inflates profits [2][3]. - He estimates that Oracle and Meta will overstate their earnings by 26.9% and 20.8% respectively by 2028 due to these accounting practices [4]. Group 2: Analyst Reactions - Prominent analysts have challenged Burry's assertions, acknowledging his valid points on depreciation but questioning his technical expertise compared to industry leaders like Mark Zuckerberg and Satya Nadella [5]. - Analyst Daniel Newman noted that overstated earnings in the short term could lead to understated earnings in the long term, suggesting that Burry's claims may reflect broader issues in accounting rather than outright fraud [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Sentiment - Investor Ross Gerber highlighted Burry's previous misjudgments, referencing his criticism of the GameStop rally and suggesting that Burry's current position on Palantir may lead to similar outcomes [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported second-quarter earnings of $106 million, down from $187 million in the same quarter last year, resulting in a decrease in earnings per share (EPS) from $0.96 to $0.54 [7][8] - Adjusted EBITDA in the moving and storage segment increased by 6%, or nearly $32 million, driven by revenue growth across all product lines [8][11] - The largest difference between adjusted EBITDA and GAAP earnings was attributed to depreciation, with a reported loss of $38 million on the disposal of retired rental equipment compared to an $18 million gain last year [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Equipment rental revenue increased by $23 million, or about 2%, despite a decrease in overall transactions [10] - Self-storage revenues rose nearly $22 million, or about 10%, with average revenue per foot improving by just under 5% [11][12] - The company added 23 storage locations, translating to approximately 1.6 million new net rentable square feet [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same store occupancy decreased by 350 basis points to 90.5%, primarily due to the removal of delinquent tenants [12] - The company has added nearly 1,000 new independent dealer locations in the past 12 months, surpassing 25,000 total locations for the first time [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its dealer network to improve truck and trailer inventory balance and increase demand [4][10] - Management is prioritizing expanding the self-storage footprint over increasing depth, indicating a competitive environment with strong price sensitivity among customers [5][33] - The company is optimistic about the potential benefits from reduced regulations affecting the transportation economy [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing challenges with increased depreciation and repair costs, but expressed confidence in the long-term stability of various business lines [4][6] - The company expects to see visible results from its dealer network expansion by May, with significant opportunities for increased market penetration [32][34] - Management noted that existing home sales are unlikely to significantly boost one-way rentals or U-Box growth, citing consumer uncertainty [40] Other Important Information - Capital expenditures for new rental equipment for the first six months of the year were $1,325 million, up $169 million from the previous year [11] - The company has invested $526 million in real estate acquisitions and self-storage development during the first half of fiscal 2026, down $208 million from the same period last year [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on depreciation method - Management explained that they use a dynamic depreciation model for box trucks and a straight-line method for cargo vans, with current depreciation rates reflecting market conditions [18][19] Question: Expectations for peak depreciation expenses - Management anticipates box truck depreciation to peak towards the end of this year, while cargo van prices are expected to decrease [21][22] Question: Competitive intensity in self-storage - Management noted that competitive pricing strategies among competitors are causing a "slugfest" in the self-storage market, with a focus on maintaining customer expectations [36][37] Question: U-Box revenue growth and market share - Management confirmed that U-Box is gaining market share and is positioned for significant future growth, with profitability expected to improve as occupancy increases [63][65] Question: Impact of tariffs on vehicle costs - Management indicated that while there are concerns about tariffs, they have not yet seen significant impacts on vehicle pricing [54][56]

Key Management Andrew Spodek Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Garber President, Treasurer & Secretary Steve Bakke Chief Financial Officer Board of Directors Board Responsibilities Patrick Donahoe Chair of the Board, Member - Audit Committee Andrew Spodek Chief Executive Officer, Director Barry Lefkowitz Chair of Audit Committee, Member - Corporate Governance & Compensation Committee Anton Feingold Chair of Corporate Governance & Compensation Committee, Member - Audit Committee Jane Gural-Senders Member - Corp ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Discretionary assets under management (AUM) increased by $687 million during Q3 2025, reaching $24.3 billion, representing a 3% sequential increase and an 8% year-over-year increase [3][4] - Total AUM hit a new high of $37.6 billion at the end of Q3 2025, with non-discretionary AUM comprising $13.3 billion, which accounts for only 4% of total revenue [4][8] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $31.3 million, an increase of $0.9 million or 2.9% year-over-year [8][9] - Reported net income for Q3 2025 was approximately $1.1 million, with adjusted net income of approximately $2.4 million, or $0.19 per adjusted basic and diluted earnings per share [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The firm added $46.4 million in organic new client accounts during Q3 2025, totaling $564 million in new client accounts year-to-date [3] - Approximately $2 billion in organic new client accounts were added year-over-year, indicating a strong focus on organic growth [3][4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was approximately $4.5 million, or 14.5% of revenue [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The firm is actively expanding its marketing efforts in Europe, Oceania, and Asia, with a focus on institutional and family clients [6][28] - The OCIO assets currently stand at almost $2.2 billion, with a strong pipeline and recent new client additions [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on significant strategic investments to promote growth opportunities, particularly in intellectual capital and headcount [5][6] - A new global value equity strategy is being emphasized, with a robust new business pipeline [6][28] - The firm plans to adjust how it reports non-discretionary AUM in 2026 to provide a clearer picture of its asset management and advisory businesses [4][5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects that the increase in AUM will bode well for future revenue, barring short-term market volatility [5] - The company anticipates that investments made will start yielding results within 6 to 12 months, with a longer-term horizon of 18 to 24 months for other initiatives [19][20] - Management expressed confidence in the potential for substantial progress from recent investments and expects to report meaningful improvements soon [20][46] Other Important Information - The company announced a dividend of $0.21 per share of Class A common stock, payable around December 19, 2025 [8] - A buyback program of $25 million was initiated, with approximately $16 million worth of shares repurchased by the end of Q3 2025 [6][7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of AUM and revenue recovery - Management indicated a longer-term horizon of 18 to 24 months for overall investments to pay off, but expects shorter-term results from the new global value equity strategy within 6 to 12 months [19][20] Question: Professional fees and future expenses - Some professional fees are temporary, particularly related to global initiatives, and disclosures are available in the earnings release [21] Question: Future EBITDA margins - Management expects EBITDA margins to return to previous levels barring new investments, with ongoing investments being on a larger scale [22][23] Question: Current status of OCIO assets - OCIO assets are nearly $2.2 billion, with a strong performance and pipeline [36] Question: Share buyback pricing - Management did not disclose specific buyback prices but indicated favorable pricing during the buyback period [37][38]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported FFO of $0.86 per share, with a net income of $12.9 million or $0.12 per share for the quarter [23][24] - The midpoint of the FFO outlook for 2025 was raised by $0.08, marking the third consecutive quarter of increases [10][26] - The debt to EBITDA ratio was 6.4x at quarter end, with expectations for improvement as signed leases convert to occupancy [24][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed over 1 million sq ft of second-generation leasing volume, including 326,000 sq ft of new leases, marking strong leasing activity for eight consecutive quarters [5][10] - The lease percentage for the development pipeline increased to 72%, up from 64% in the previous quarter [7][15] - Net effective rents reached a new high, 18% above the 2019 average, indicating strong pricing power [7][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Dallas, Nashville, Charlotte, and Tampa were highlighted as standout markets, with Dallas experiencing significant in-migration and corporate expansions [16][18][20] - Nashville's unemployment rate was reported at 2.9%, the lowest among the company's markets, with asking rates up more than 11% year-over-year [18][19] - Charlotte saw a 77% year-over-year increase in leasing activity, with a strong demand for Class A space [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on securing embedded NOI growth by leasing key vacancies and recycling non-core assets into higher quality properties [4][11] - The strategy includes maintaining a strong balance sheet while pursuing acquisitions and dispositions to enhance portfolio quality [10][11] - The company plans to provide its 2026 outlook in February, indicating a forward-looking approach to growth [27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the leasing pipeline and the potential for significant NOI growth from signed leases [12][24] - The company anticipates elevated capital expenditures due to leasing activity but expects cash flow levels to improve as occupancy builds [41][43] - Management noted that the capital markets environment is improving, which could facilitate future acquisitions and dispositions [66] Other Important Information - The company has $625 million of available liquidity and extended the maturity on its $200 million variable rate term loan to 2031 [25] - The acquisition of the Legacy Union Parking Garage for $111.5 million was funded on a leverage-neutral basis, demonstrating the company's financial strategy [9][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook on potential acquisitions or dispositions - Management indicated that acquisition opportunities are focused on existing markets, with ongoing portfolio rotation to trim non-core assets [31][32] Question: Financing for potential acquisitions - The plan is to primarily use disposition proceeds for funding acquisitions, with ATM issuance as a secondary option [33] Question: Market migration trends - Dallas is currently leading in tenant migration, with Charlotte and Nashville also experiencing significant activity [36][38] Question: Impact of elevated capital expenditures on cash flow - Elevated CapEx is expected to continue through 2026, but strong NOI growth is anticipated to improve cash flow levels [41][43] Question: Pricing expectations for sold assets - Pricing for dispositions is generally meeting or exceeding initial expectations, with more institutional capital entering the market [66]