Benjamin Cowen
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People Who Converted ETH to BTC
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-23 02:46
And now one bitcoin is worth 31 E. So you could have stuck with you could have converted your Ethereum to Bitcoin in 2022 when I did and just by holding Bitcoin even through the bare market and then holding just continuing to hold on to it holding it you could have gotten five times the amount of Ethereum by just converting your ETH to Bitcoin at the end of 2021 and then converting back when ETH went home. Remember when Eth went home. If you converted back when ETH went home, that was the time. ...
Investing $1,000 Into Crypto?
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-22 17:32
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about constructing a cryptocurrency portfolio and how to do so if say you're investing $1,000 into crypto. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, we do this video about every 6 months, right? There's actually a playlist if you're interested. T ...
ETH/BTC & Altcoins
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-17 20:23
What happened to altcoins. It's a great question. They collapsed and they put in new lows.Do you see that. They put in new lows even though ETH barely pulled back on its Bitcoin pair. This is ETH Dominance.Let's go back to ETH Bitcoin so you don't call me out on it in the comments. Um, and you can call me out uh if you look at at at ETH Bitcoin, right. This tiny little pullback sent alts to new lows.So, I know it seemed like a crazy proposition when I first suggested that back in earlier this year that like ...
ETH / BTC
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-17 05:34
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Ethereum. We're more so going to be discussing the ETH Bitcoin valuation.If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse. com. Let's go ahead and jump in.Now, if you're new to the cryptoverse, you may be curious as to why we would do a whole video just on the Bitcoin valuation of Et ...
Bitcoin: ROI After Halving
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-14 00:00
Market Analysis & Trends - Bitcoin's having occurs approximately every four years, influencing market cycles [1][2] - Having cycles 1 and 3 saw no price drops below the having day price, while cycles 2 and 4 experienced drawdowns of about 15-20% [3][4] - Bitcoin is currently around day 439 of the cycle, suggesting the bare market may begin in approximately 100 days, based on the last two cycles [6] ROI & Diminishing Returns - Diminishing returns have been observed in each Bitcoin cycle [8][11] - In previous cycles, ROI decreased: Cycle 1 (92x), Cycle 2 (30x), Cycle 3 (8x); current cycle is below 2x [14] - At a similar point in previous cycles, Bitcoin's price increase from the having was approximately 4x in the second to last cycle and 550% in the cycle before that [11] Investment Considerations - Strategic reserves and ETFs exist, but a larger market cap requires exponentially more volume to move the price [11] - Tempering expectations is advised, as diminishing returns may continue despite new market factors [12]
S&P 500: Accounting for the Money Supply
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-12 00:00
Market Analysis & Trends - The S&P 500 experienced a 20% drop and subsequently reached new all-time highs, highlighting a typical rally following such declines [2] - Markets tend to rise unless there's a specific reason for them to decline [4] - The S&P 500 generally trends upwards, mirroring the behavior of the money supply [6] - The current market movement shows similarities to the pattern observed in 1998, including a 20% drop followed by a surge to all-time highs [7][12] - Q3 (August/September) tends to be a period of market weakness [33][34][35] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has remained relatively stable at 42%, a level that historically supports market growth [5] - The unemployment rate in 1998 was in a macro downtrend, contrasting with the current situation [22] - The recession in 2001 didn't begin until the unemployment rate reached 43%-44% [24] - The lowest unemployment rate in the dot-com era was 38%, while the current cycle saw it drop to around 34%, the lowest since 1969 [25] Investment Strategy - A 20% drop in the S&P 500 is considered a buying opportunity [28] - The S&P 500 divided by M2 is a useful indicator for identifying local tops and bottoms [26]
Bitcoin Metric Analyzer
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-10 20:00
Tool Introduction - IntoTheCryptoverse introduces a new metric analyzer tool for cryptocurrency, similar to tools used in other asset classes [1][2] - The tool analyzes Bitcoin's price action after specific events, initially focusing on moving averages, with plans for future expansion [2][3] - Users can analyze ROI (Return on Investment) after events like weekly closes above or below specific Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) over different timeframes (1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year) [3] Bitcoin Analysis - Analysis of Bitcoin's historical performance after weekly closes below the 50-week SMA shows an average price increase of only 3-4% three months later [4] - Bitcoin tends to increase significantly after a weekly close above the 50-week SMA after being below it [5][6] - When Bitcoin closes above the 20-week SMA, the average return one month later is up 3%, three months later up approximately 40%, and one year later up approximately 376% [9] - Bitcoin's average return a year after closing below the 200-week SMA: 2015 (155%), later on 164%, 2020 (almost 1,000%), 2022 (30%), 2023 (160% and 125%) [11] Comparative Analysis - The tool allows comparison of Bitcoin's performance with other assets like Ethereum and Solana [7][8] - Users can analyze how Ethereum performs after Bitcoin closes above the 50-week SMA [8] - Users can analyze Solana's price performance when it closes above its 20-week SMA [8] Future Development - IntoTheCryptoverse plans to add more technical indicators and features to the tool to enhance its utility [6] - The company is considering incorporating the number of coins above their 50-week SMA as a metric [9] - The company is considering excluding earlier price action (e g 2012) to provide more relevant and believable data [10]
Bitcoin HODL Waves
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-09 15:04
Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - The analysis of HODL waves reveals the percentage of Bitcoin supply that has remained unused in transactions for specific durations [2] - Short-term holders (holding for less than 6 months) often enter during market mania phases and exit quickly when the hype subsides [4][5] - Long-term holders tend to accumulate Bitcoin when the price is stagnant and decrease their holdings during bull runs, selling to short-term holders [7][8][9] - Short-term holder peaks often coincide with peaks in Bitcoin's price [9] - Long-term holders accumulate throughout bear markets, even during significant price drops (e g 60-70%), and sell when the bull market arrives [10][11] - Similar HODL wave analysis can be applied to other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum [13] Holder Behavior - Short-term holders often buy at market tops and capitulate during downturns [12] - Long-term holders demonstrate patience, accumulating during bear markets and profiting during bull markets [10][11] Data Insights - Less than 1-2% of the total Bitcoin supply is held for less than a day [3] - Approximately 17% of the Bitcoin supply is held for between 6 months and 1 year [3]
And That Is When Bitcoin Normally Peaks
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-09 04:22
Market Cycle Analysis - Bitcoin normally peaks in Q4 of the post-halving year, though each cycle could be different [1] - Cycles one and two could be combined into a single cycle [1][2] - The cycles have shown interesting similarities [2] Bitcoin Performance - Two cycles ago, Bitcoin was up about 100x (10,000%) [2] - Last cycle, Bitcoin went up about 20x (2,000%), approximately 1/5 of the previous cycle's increase [2] - So far this cycle, Bitcoin is up about 7x (700%) [2]
Bitcoin Market Cycle ROI
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-07-08 15:11
Market Cycle Analysis - Bitcoin's ROI from the low is nearly 7x, indicating diminishing returns in the current cycle [3] - In the previous cycle, Bitcoin was up approximately 14 to 15x at a similar point, while the cycle before that saw a 24x increase [3] - Cycles 3 and 4 ended around day 1,059 and 1,067 respectively, measured from the low, while the current cycle is on day 968, projecting a potential peak in Q4 [5] Historical Performance - Two cycles ago, Bitcoin increased by over 100x, while the last cycle saw an increase of about 20x (approximately 1/5) [7] - Currently, Bitcoin is up about 7x this cycle, which is more than 1/5 of the previous cycle's gains [7] Future Outlook - The analysis suggests monitoring the market cycle ROI chart, especially towards the end of the year, for potential insights [9] - The report anticipates a potential midterm year bear market following the peak, similar to previous cycles [9] - The analysis suggests that major market cycle bottoms occur approximately every four years, presenting accumulation opportunities [10]