| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|--------------| | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | | | | 煤耗增速明显走高 | | | 实体经济图谱 2024 年 第 3 6 期 | | | | | | 分析师：陈兴 博士 | | | 财通宏观首席分析师 S0160523030002 | | | 分析师：马骏 博士 S0160523080004 | | | 联系人：陈莹 | | 1 2024年9月21日 各行业量价速览 • 近期，高温极端天气持续叠加水力发电不足，推动六大发电集团日均耗煤增速大幅上升。一方面，近期超长期高温 持续拉动居民用电需求攀升，多地用电负荷创历史新高，本月前20天发电耗煤量增速创2023年以来新高；另一方 面，水力发电阶段性放缓，火力发电顶峰兜底。由于近期上游降水强度偏弱，叠加三峡蓄水形势严峻，目前三峡水 库出库量仍处于低位运行，发电效率低于平时，导致水力发电不足，火力发电兜底。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests holding stocks and broad-based ETFs to enhance the capital efficiency of quality securities firms [3]. Core Viewpoints - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised the "Risk Control Indicators Management Measures for Securities Companies," effective January 1, 2025, which aims to optimize risk control indicators for stock investments and enhance capital efficiency for compliant securities firms [3][4]. - Key adjustments include lowering the calculation standards for market risk capital preparation for major indices from 10% to 8% and for general listed stocks from 30% to 25%, while increasing the calculation rate for quality liquid assets from 40% to 50% [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the adjustments are expected to alleviate the net capital constraints of leading securities firms, thereby improving capital utilization efficiency and return on equity (ROE) [3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The CSRC's new measures include differentiated enhancements to available stable funds, allowing securities firms with a three-year AA rating to have a 20% conversion rate for certain liabilities, while those with a three-year A rating will have a 10% conversion rate [3][4]. - The risk coverage ratio and capital leverage ratio have been adjusted to favor firms with higher ratings, promoting a more robust financial environment [4]. Market Impact - The report anticipates that the changes will lead to improved capital efficiency among top-tier securities firms, which are expected to dominate the market due to their historical performance and ratings [3].

证券Ⅱ / 行业点评报告 / 2024.09.21 《证券公司保荐业务规则》修订点评 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -21% -16% -11% -5% 0% 5% 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 分析师 许盈盈 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 刘金金 SAC 证书编号：S0160524050001 liujj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《指数化趋势构建公募代销新格局— —1H2024 公募基金销售保有规模分析》 2024-09-19 2. 《首批中证 A500ETF 集中发行，推 进指数化趋势——证券基金行业周度 跟踪》 2024-09-18 3. 《证券行业 2024 年中报综述》 2024-09-08 "申报及担责"落实到人，加速优胜劣汰 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 事件：9 月 20 日，中证协发布修订《证券公司保荐业务规则》，并同步完善保 荐代表人分类名单。 ❖ 本次修订旨在落实新"国九条"要求。本次修订旨在落实新"国九条"关 于"进一步压实发行人第一责任和中介机构"看门人"责任"、"申报即担责"、 "进一步建立健全从业人 ...

汽车 / 行业点评报告 / 2024.09.20 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -22% -16% -10% -4% 2% 8% 汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|------------|-------| | | | | | 相关报告 | | | | 1. 《汽车行业周报》 | 2024-09-18 | | | 2. 《 8 月份中国车市运行回顾》 | | 2024- | 09-18 3. 《汽车及零部件行业 2024 年中报总 结》 2024-09-13 《电动自行车安全技术规范（征求意见稿）》点评 新国标有望提高行业集中度，利好行业龙头 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 事件：2024 年 9 月 19 日，工业和信息化部会同公安部、应急管理部等多部 门，对最新修订的《电动自行车安全技术规范》进 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focused on developing innovative drugs for urogenital tumors and other major diseases, with a strong emphasis on the product APL-1702, which has shown significant efficacy in clinical trials for treating high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) [3] - APL-1702 has achieved a response rate improvement of 89.4% compared to the placebo group, indicating substantial therapeutic potential [3] - The company plans to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for APL-1702 and is actively seeking opportunities for international market development [3] - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 200 million, 360 million, and 610 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 0.03 million yuan in 2022, with projections of 13.75 million yuan in 2023 and 200 million yuan in 2024, indicating a revenue growth rate of 470.4% in 2022 and an expected 1354.2% in 2024 [5] - The net profit is projected to be -445.76 million yuan in 2024, with a gradual improvement expected in subsequent years [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.78 yuan in 2024, improving to -0.53 yuan by 2026 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to -23.23% in 2024, with a slight recovery anticipated in the following years [5]

房地产开发 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.09.19 房地产行业周报（2024 年第 37 周） 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -38% -30% -22% -14% -6% 1% 房地产开发 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 欧阳之光 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070001 oyzg@ctsec.com 分析师 吴梦茹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524060001 wumr@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 36 周）》 2024-09-08 2. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 35 周）》 2024-09-02 3. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 34 周）》 2024-08-25 新房销售表现平淡，二手房成交环比正增 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 本周板块回顾：本周申万房地产指数下跌 0.50%，沪深 300 指数较上周下 跌 2.23%，板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.73pct，在 31 个板块中排第 2 位。 ❖ 行业数据回顾：本周 30 大中城市商品房成交面积 129 万平米，环比-16.1%， 同比-32.3%。细分城市能 ...

宏观月报 / 2024.09.19 降息步入"快车道" ——9 月美联储议息会议解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《降息箭在弦上——7 月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-08-01 2. 《降息将至未至——6 月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-06-13 3. 《缩表放缓，降息还有多远？——5 月美联储议息会议解读》 2024-05-02 核心观点 ❖ 就业疲软促使美联储降息。本次议息会议中，美联储决定将基准利率下调 50bp 至 4.75%-5%的目标范围内，并按原有节奏继续缩表。9 月所公布的点阵 图显示，2024 年目标利率的预期中值为 4.1%，指向今年后续预期还有至少 50bp 的降息。最新 FOMC 声明中，美联储新增表述将"致力于实现最大就业" （supporting maximum employment）。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示， 鉴于实现就业和通胀目标的风险已经大致平衡，本次 FOMC 会议决定降息， 但 50bp 并不代表会形成常态 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable high growth in performance, with asset quality remaining robust. The net profit for the first half of 2024 increased by 19.6% year-on-year, while revenue grew by 12.0% [2][3]. - The company has a unique competitive advantage through its "Changnong Microloan Model," focusing on small and micro enterprises, which has led to a leading growth rate in performance compared to peers [3][22]. Summary by Sections Performance and Growth - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with net profit reaching 1.734 billion yuan, up 19.6% [2][7]. - The growth in performance is attributed to several factors: 1. "Volume compensating for price," with net interest income forming the performance base, contributing 15.5 percentage points to performance [8]. 2. Investment income driving other non-interest income, contributing 5.5 percentage points [8]. 3. Cost optimization leading to an 11.1 percentage point positive contribution to profit [8]. 4. Increased provisioning impacting performance, with provisioning negatively affecting profit by 4.0 percentage points [8]. Credit and Deposit Trends - The total loans and advances reached 238.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, with corporate loans growing by 14.0% and personal loans by 6.9% [10][12]. - The deposit balance increased by 16.7% year-on-year, driven primarily by a 26.6% growth in personal time deposits, indicating a trend towards more time deposits [12][13]. Asset Quality - The asset quality remains stable, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios at 0.76%, slightly up from the end of 2023 [19][21]. - The company has a provisioning coverage ratio of 539%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [21][22]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, with projected net profit growth rates of 17.4%, 16.0%, and 15.2% for 2024-2026 [3][22]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratios are forecasted to be 0.67, 0.60, and 0.54 for the same period [3][22].

建筑材料 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.09.18 单击或点击此处输入文字。 建材行业策略周报 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -37% -30% -22% -14% -7% 1% 建筑材料 沪深300 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《下游需求未见起色，盈利能力亦 有承压》 2024-09-13 2. 《B 端消费建材减值计提专题研究— —涂料篇》 2024-09-11 3. 《建材行业策略周报》 2024-09-02 地产宽松政策延续，旺季需求待验证 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 消费建材：9 月首周一二线城市成交较弱，宽松经济利好房地产的逐 步企稳。9 月供应延续低位持稳态势，虽然"金九"历史看是成交旺季，但 目前房企推盘积极性一般。据克而瑞，9 月 28 个重点城市预计新增商品住宅 供应面积 703 万方，环比下降 4%、同比下降 59%，绝对量不及二季度月 均，与一季度月均 699 万方基本持平。近期陆续提出的上海房屋养老计划、 调整中小套型住房建筑面积标准等，也印证了这一趋势，后续政策有望从利 率端、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears to be positive based on the performance metrics discussed. Core Insights - Automotive sales showed a month-on-month recovery, with production and sales in August reaching 2.492 million and 2.453 million units, respectively, representing a month-on-month increase of 9% and 8.5% [2] - Domestic sales of passenger vehicles in August were 1.942 million units, up 8.3% month-on-month, while exports reached 511,000 units, marking a 9% month-on-month increase and a 25.4% year-on-year increase [2] - The market share of Chinese brands in passenger vehicles reached 66.9% in August, an increase of 10.1 percentage points [2] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales in August saw significant year-on-year growth, with production and sales reaching 1.092 million and 1.1 million units, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6% and 30% [3] - The export of NEVs was 110,000 units in August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] Summary by Sections Automotive Sales Performance - In August, the overall automotive industry produced and sold 2.492 million and 2.453 million vehicles, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 9% and 8.5% [2] - For the first eight months of the year, production and sales totaled 18.674 million and 18.766 million units, with year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 3% [2] Passenger Vehicle Market - Passenger vehicle production and sales in August were 2.221 million and 2.181 million units, both showing a month-on-month increase of 9.4% [2] - The market share of Chinese brands in the passenger vehicle segment has been steadily increasing, reaching 66.9% in August [2] Commercial Vehicle Market - Commercial vehicle production and sales in August were 271,000 and 272,000 units, with month-on-month increases of 5.7% and 1.4% [2] New Energy Vehicles - NEV sales in August reached 1.1 million units, with a market share of 44.8% [3] - The fastest-growing segment within NEVs was plug-in hybrid vehicles, which saw an 81.6% year-on-year increase in sales [3]