| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|-------|--------------| | | | | | | | | | ) 财通证 荣 | | 证券研究报告 | | 服务消费弱于往年同期 实体经济图谱 | | | | 2024年第29期 | | | | | | | | 分析师:陈兴 博士 | | | | 财通宏观首席分析师 S0160523030002 | | | | 分析师:马骏 博士 S0160523080004 | | | | 联系人: 陈莹 | | | 2024年8月3日 各行业量价速览 · 暑期已过半，7月高频数据指向经济继续放缓。消费端，地产新政效果褪去,新房销售增速由升转降，二手房则量 升价跌,乘用车零售销量增速降幅收窄,商品消费整体未见起色,服务消费环比李节性回升,但弱于往年。受极端 天气、专项债发行缓慢以及建筑工地资金到位率下降等因素影响，工业生产和建筑业较为液软，沥青开工率降至同 期新低,钢厂盈利持续恶化,印证货运物流增速回落。内需疲软拖累黑色、有色等上游大宗商品价格回落。7月经 济未见起色,稳增长诉求提升,静待 ...

Global Market Trends - Global funds saw inflows of $146 million into bonds and $89 million into stocks, while $125 million flowed out of the currency market during the week of July 24-31, 2024[10] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced declines during the same period[4] - Emerging markets attracted more global funds compared to developed markets, with a cumulative return difference of 25.7% since 2024[20] Domestic Market Insights - Northbound capital inflows were highest in the financial sector, totaling 44.84 billion CNY, followed by medical aesthetics at 31.24 billion CNY, and public services at 18.79 billion CNY[5] - The top individual stocks for northbound inflows included China Nuclear Power (6.18 billion CNY) and WuXi AppTec (6.04 billion CNY), while Kweichow Moutai saw the largest outflow at -11.7 billion CNY[39] - Southbound capital inflows were led by information technology (47.4 billion HKD) and energy (38.9 billion HKD) sectors[5] Fundraising and Financing Activities - A total of 36.57 billion CNY was raised this week, with an IPO scale of 19 billion CNY and two companies going public[5] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending increased to 1,437.14 billion CNY, reflecting a rise of 74.16 billion CNY from the previous week[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include rising risk-free interest rates, significant macroeconomic fluctuations, and unexpected market volatility, particularly regarding global capital returning to the U.S.[6]

计算机 / 行业点计报告 / 2024.08.04 苹果连续六个季度收入超预期 ● 投资计划:方对(点击) 衰逝 12 月李场表現 合并并 杨祥 SAC 证书简予：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 各有有 王 矫 丹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524040002 wangyd01@ctsec.com � 油关报告 : 1. 《META 2Q24: 业缘超预病, AI 动力 广寺业务商增长》 2024-08-03 2. 《高通手机业务大出低迷，AIPC 有 翌引領新時代》 2024-08-02 3. 《扫地机厂商竞争演烈，积极探寻家 二増长由线》 2024-08-02 的相互 ■ 证券所究报告 � 羊果是柴六个单度营收杂量利均超预期。8月1日周四美股宜后，消费也 子与科技 乒乓羊莱发布了 2024 年二季度时报。苹果 2Q24 实现密收 858 亿美 元，同比增长 4.9%，好于市场一县预前（844.6 亿美元），收入站的装升，主 美全盆子 iPad 及软件服务业务的增长等办。苹果 2Q24 毛利率为 46.3%，同比 增办 1.8pct，受好于市场一致预期(46.1%)；软 ...

数据来源:wind 8月2日数据,财通证券研究所 农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.08.04 供应偏紧猪价延续上涨,持续推荐生猪 因投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12月市场表现 -18% � � 会剑秋 分析师 SAC 证书编号： S0160522050003 yujq01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《供应持续偏紧,看好猪价上行趋势》 2024-07-28 2. 《7月 USDA 上调全球小麦、玉米产 量预测》 2024-07-22 3. 《供应偏紧猪价延续上涨，宠物公司 业绩可期》 2024-07-21 � op � 农业重点数据跟踪周报 ■ 证券研究报告 核心观点 ip 生猪养殖：猪价震荡向上,价格周期反特。供应方面延续偏紧张,猪价持续向上 持续创年内新高；看涨情绪下存在压栏和二育进场，高温天气下量有限。 中长 期,企业现金流压力明显,价格周期反转,持续推荐配置生猪养殖。1) 数量 端:6月能繁母猎存栏有所增加。据国家统计局数据,6月能紧母猪存栏数量 4038 万头,月环比+1.0%。2)价格端:震荡向上。根据涌益咨询,8月1日, 商品猪出栏价为 19.46 元/kg，周环比+1.1 ...

Group 1: Insurance Fund Sources and Allocation - Insurance funds primarily come from premium income, with total premium income exceeding CNY 5.1 trillion as of the end of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.1%[5] - By the end of 2023, the balance of insurance funds reached over CNY 27.7 trillion, with bond investments accounting for 45.4% of this total, amounting to CNY 12.6 trillion[9] - Insurance companies prefer long-term bonds, with over 70% of their bond investments being in bonds with maturities exceeding 5 years, aligning with their long liability durations[17] Group 2: Investment Preferences and Trends - Insurance institutions favor government bonds, particularly local government bonds, which account for 42.3% of their bond holdings[15] - The investment strategy of insurance companies is primarily allocation-based, with a positive correlation between the growth rate of government bond investments and interest rate trends[20] - The proportion of insurance funds allocated to fixed-income assets has increased in recent years, driven by a favorable market environment for bonds[10] Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Influences - Regulatory requirements encourage insurance companies to invest in high-rated credit bonds and government bonds, with liquidity coverage ratios mandated to be above 100% under stress scenarios[22] - Changes in accounting standards, particularly the introduction of IFRS 9, have led to a preference for high-rated bonds due to increased impairment provisions for lower-rated bonds[24] - The decline in bond yields has pressured insurance companies' net investment returns, necessitating improved asset-liability matching strategies[28]

计算机 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.08.03 META 2Q24:业绩超预期,AI 助力广告业 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 核心观点 ■ 证券研究报告 最近 12月市场表现 ogo 杨烨 分析师 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 联系人 李宇轩 liyx()2(@ctsec.com | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------------------------------------| | | | | 相关报告 | | | | 1. 《高通手机业务走出低迷，AIPC 有 | | 望引领新时代》 2024-08-02 | | | | 2. 《扫地机厂商竞争激烈，积极探寻第 | | 二增长曲线》 2024-08-02 | | | | 3. 《AMD 数据中心 GPU 需求旺盛, 全 | | 力追赶英伟达》 2024-08-01 | | Meta 收入利润均超预期,Capex 指引上修。Meta 于 2024 年二季皮实现 收入与净利润高增长。2024年二季度，Meta 实现收入 390 ...

水羊股份(300740) / 化妆品 / 公司点评 / 2024.08.02 投放加大业绩咯低于预期,伊菲丹势能强 核心观点 ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:增持(维持) | --- | --- | |-------------------|------------| | | | | 基本數据 | 2024-08-01 | | 收盘价(元) | 12.18 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 3.57 | | 每股净资产(元) | 5.28 | | 总股本(亿股) | 3.89 | | 最近 12月市场表现 | | � ogo � 刘洋 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160521120001 liuyang01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《盈利能力大幅改善,聚焦驱动结构 优化》 2024-04-24 2. 《发布 2023 业绩预告，盈利实现强 劲增长》 2024-01-19 3. 《Q3 业绩承压，关注品牌升级持续 推进》 2023-10-27 � � 事件:公司发布 2024 年半年报:2024H1 公司实现营收 22.9 亿元,同比 +0.14%;实现归母净利润 1.1 亿元,同比-25.7%;实 ...

计算机 / 行业专题报告 / 2024.08.02 高通手机业务走出低速，AIPC 有望引领新时代 ● 投美养品:大好(点点) 衰逝 12 月李场表現 美食物物 ■ 证券所究报告 � 格林 Adhy SAC 证书简予：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 各州方 无所并 SAC 证书简予：S0160524040002 wangyd01@ctsec.com 油关报告 1. 《AMD 姜振中心 GPU 毫柔旺盛，全 力逃妊疾係达》 2024-08-01 2. 《政治局：做好空中文通答理，促进 株空经济发展》 2024-07-31 3. 《税制土壤息界，修生全球财税 SaaS 2024-07-28 巨头 Intuit》 高通 2Q24 收入查商戒在教增长，手机业务网比增长 12%。美国当地时 间 7 月 31 日，高通发布了 2024 辛二季度（最至 6 月 23 日）业绩。2Q24，高 通调整后的密收为 93.9 亿美元，同比增长 11%：净利润为 21.29 亿美元，与上 年同期的 18.03 亿美无相比增长 18%。此外，高通还发布了 2024 年三季度密 妆泉堂，公司预计 3Q ...

固防军工 / 行业点评报告 / 2024.08.02 G60 组网卫星首杭在即,面商业航天迎来黄金杭遇 ● 投资计划:方法(文章) 衰逝 12 月李场表現 余坊北3 Adhy SAC 证书简予：S0160522080002 shewe@ctsec.com 油关报告 1. 《中央政治局强调空境省理，依空行 业再选择化》 2024-07-31 2. 《圣王行业经病永压，杭海表备亲气 上行》 2024-05-13 3. 《侏空经济未未已未，近万亿市场待 2024-04-30 # 卫星发射催化不断，而业航天煤煤前今 ■ 证券好文报告 年 � 事件: "千机圣座" 首款独同卫圣发射仪式转于８月５日在太原奉行，该计划 分三个阶段，一阶段是 2025 年前，实现 648 颗呈装供区境网络意点：二阶段 是 2027 年前，由芬外 648 蔡圣提供全球司徐意盖：三阶段是 2030 年前，实现 15000 颗圣提供手机直连等多业务的缺个最务。其中，一期计划无成发出 1296 颗圣，首批卫圣持以"一背 18 圣"升空入轨。 � 貪淑希執新規出合, 卫星希吾迪孟属戴: 卫星领年和赴追齐泽东段, 摇 ITU ( 固际电信联盟) 预测， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 revenue decreased by 25.77% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 67.71%. In Q2 2024, revenue fell by 26.62%, and net profit decreased by 70.52%. The total revenue for H1 2024 was 1.376 billion yuan, with a net profit of 183 million yuan [1][2] - The sales revenue and quantity of broiler chicks decreased year-on-year due to low prices of broiler meat and live chickens. In Q1 and Q2 2024, the company sold 130 million and 150 million broiler chicks, respectively, with Q2 sales revenue down 37.07% year-on-year [2] - The price of parent stock has risen to a high level, and the price of commercial broiler chicks is on an upward trend. The company's chicken business generated 1.21 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year decline of 31.61%, while the pig business revenue increased by 299.37% [2] - The company is the largest supplier of grandparent stock in China and maintains the top position in commercial broiler chick sales. Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 3.244 billion, 3.661 billion, and 3.872 billion yuan, with net profits of 580 million, 630 million, and 596 million yuan, respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 1.376 billion yuan, down 25.77% year-on-year, with a net profit of 183 million yuan, down 67.71% [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 688 million yuan, with a net profit of 74 million yuan [1] - The company expects revenue growth rates of 0.61%, 12.85%, and 5.75% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Sales and Pricing - The average selling price of broiler chicks has increased significantly, with a rise from 2.8 yuan to 4.2 yuan per chick, marking a 55.56% increase [2] - The sales of parent stock have been in high demand, with all orders for parent stock booked until September [2] Market Position - The company is recognized as the largest grandparent stock breeding enterprise in China, with a strong competitive edge in high-generation poultry breeding [2]