Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Beijing UBOX Online Technology with a "Buy" rating [2] Core Investment Thesis - Beijing UBOX is a leading operator of vending machines in China, with a network of 61,888 UBOX vending machine locations across 157 cities and 28 provinces as of June 30, 2023 [3] - The company's revenue for 2020-2022 was RMB19.0/26.8/25.2bn, with a CAGR of 15% from 2020 to 2022 [3] - The penetration rate of vending machines in China is expected to increase from 8.8% in 2022 to 15.6% in 2027, with the retail market size projected to grow from RMB289bn in 2022 to RMB739bn in 2027, a five-year CAGR of 20.7% [3] - The company is expanding rapidly in high-tier cities, with the number of machines in first-tier/new first-tier/second-tier cities expected to increase to 27,000/29,000/28,000 respectively by the end of 2024 [3] - Revenue for 2023-2025 is forecasted to be RMB27.6/40.9/49.9bn, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be RMB-1.5/0.3/1.8bn [3] Financial Forecasts & Valuation - Revenue for 2023-2025 is projected to be RMB2,761.85/4,090.24/4,994.10mn, with YoY growth of 9.63%/48.10%/22.10% [3] - Net profit for 2023-2025 is forecasted to be RMB-150.82/26.15/184.19mn, with YoY growth of 46.99%/117.33%/604.47% [3] - EPS for 2023-2025 is expected to be RMB-0.19/0.03/0.24 [3] - P/E ratios for 2023-2025 are projected at -68.44/394.80/56.04 [3] Market Data & Company Overview - The company's closing price as of the report date is HKD14.60, with a 52-week range of HKD11.84-22.80 [5] - Market capitalization is HKD11,385.59mn, with a P/B ratio of 9.48 [5] - The company has a total of 61,888 vending machine locations, with 87.3% concentrated in first-tier, new first-tier, and second-tier cities [3] - The company's revenue for 2020-2022 was RMB19.0/26.8/25.2bn, with significant fluctuations due to the pandemic and changes in consumer demand [3] Industry Analysis - The vending machine market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the retail market size projected to increase from RMB289bn in 2022 to RMB739bn in 2027, a five-year CAGR of 20.7% [3] - The market is currently fragmented, with the top five participants holding a 17.0% market share based on total commodity turnover in 2022 [3] - Leading companies are expected to achieve growth surpassing the industry through mergers and acquisitions [3] Business Model & Expansion Strategy - The company operates a comprehensive service platform for unmanned retail, leveraging digitalization and operational capabilities to create value for various participants [3] - The company is focusing on expanding in high-tier cities, with plans to increase the number of machines in first-tier/new first-tier/second-tier cities to 27,000/29,000/28,000 by the end of 2024 [3] - The company is also targeting third-tier and below cities through cooperation with operators and platform empowerment, with the number of machines expected to increase from 7,881 in June 2023 to 16,000 by the end of 2024 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2023 met expectations, with adjusted property EBITDA profit margins expected to recover to 2019 levels. The net revenue for Q4 2023 was HKD 6.39 billion, aligning closely with the expected HKD 6.47 billion, and recovering to 75.6% of the same period in 2019. Gaming and non-gaming net revenues were HKD 5.95 billion and HKD 0.44 billion, respectively, recovering to 71.0% and 245.2% of 2019 levels [2][3] - The company adjusted its organizational structure to enhance the synergy between the new and old properties, which has already shown positive results, including a 25% increase in mid-market betting amounts and a 12% increase in customer visits to the gaming area in early 2024 [3][4] - The report forecasts net revenues of HKD 21.71 billion, HKD 26.02 billion, and HKD 28.80 billion for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with adjusted property EBITDA of HKD 1.95 billion, HKD 3.48 billion, and HKD 4.91 billion for the same years. The target price is set at HKD 3.60 [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2023 was HKD 6.30 billion, recovering to 62.5% of Q4 2019 levels. VIP and mass market gaming revenues were HKD 5.10 billion and HKD 5.79 billion, recovering to 15.3% and 86.0% of 2019 levels, respectively [3] - The company's overall market share in Q4 2023 was 12.0%, down from 14.4% in 2019, primarily due to the closure of five satellite casinos and regulatory impacts on VIP business [3] Organizational Changes - The company has restructured to better manage daily operations and service quality across its properties, aiming to maximize customer potential and improve occupancy rates at the new property [3][4] Earnings Forecast - The report maintains revenue and EBITDA forecasts for 2023-2025, with current stock prices corresponding to EV/EBITDA multiples of 21.2, 11.9, and 8.4 for the respective years [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2023 was slightly below expectations due to low win rates and impairment costs, with net revenue reaching USD 1.09 billion, recovering to 75.4% of the same period in 2019 [2][3] - The company achieved adjusted property EBITDA of USD 300 million in Q4 2023, which is 74.0% of Q4 2019 levels, primarily impacted by a low win rate and a USD 20 million impairment loss [2] - The company plans to enhance its non-gaming operations, expecting a slight increase in daily operating expenses due to new performances and service quality improvements [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2022A, total revenue was HKD 10,565.7 million, with a projected increase to HKD 35,167.7 million in 2024E and HKD 38,491.2 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.0% and 9.5% respectively [2][5] - Adjusted property EBITDA is forecasted to rise from HKD -362 million in 2022A to HKD 9,777.8 million in 2024E and HKD 11,234.2 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9% in 2025E [2][5] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/Adjusted Property EBITDA ratios of 8.0, 6.4, and 5.6 for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [3] Operational Insights - The company's Macau properties generated total gaming revenue of USD 980 million in Q4 2023, recovering to 64.5% of Q4 2019 levels, with VIP and mass market revenues at 21.9% and 96.7% of 2019 levels respectively [3] - The company is introducing RFID gaming tables to improve operational efficiency and performance [3] Future Outlook - The company has revised its net income forecasts for 2023-2025 to HKD 30.05 billion, HKD 35.17 billion, and HKD 38.49 billion respectively [3] - Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to be between USD 360 million and USD 375 million, focusing on enhancing non-gaming facilities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2023 was slightly below expectations, with adjusted property EBITDA profit margins expected to recover to 2019 levels. The net revenue for Q4 2023 was HKD 10.32 billion, recovering to 79.5% of Q4 2019 levels, while adjusted property EBITDA was HKD 2.91 billion, recovering to 68.7% of the same period in 2019 [2][3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its long-term competitiveness through continuous renovations and new property developments, including the redesign of high-end gaming areas and the construction of new luxury hotel rooms [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report forecasts total revenue for 2023, 2024, and 2025 to be HKD 36.31 billion, HKD 43.70 billion, and HKD 47.81 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 216.5%, 20.3%, and 9.4% [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA is projected to be HKD 10.50 billion, HKD 13.83 billion, and HKD 15.82 billion for the same years [2] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/Adjusted Property EBITDA multiples of 17.34, 13.16, and 11.50 for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with a target price set at HKD 57.0 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China (2282 HK) [1] Core Views - MGM China's 4Q23 revenue and profits exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching HKD 7 68 billion (134 9% of 4Q19 levels) and adjusted property EBITDA of HKD 2 19 billion (140 6% of 4Q19 levels) [2] - The company's gaming revenue recovery outpaced the industry, with mass market (including slots) gaming revenue reaching 163 1% of 4Q19 levels, leading the industry by 59 percentage points [3] - Non-gaming revenue recovered to 159 1% of 4Q19 levels, driven by successful events and concerts [3] - The report raises 2023-2025 revenue forecasts to HKD 24 2 billion, HKD 26 77 billion, and HKD 28 42 billion respectively, with adjusted property EBITDA forecasts of HKD 7 13 billion, HKD 8 13 billion, and HKD 8 76 billion [3] Financial Performance - 4Q23 gaming revenue reached HKD 8 5 billion, recovering to 125 1% of 2019 levels, with VIP and mass market (including slots) gaming revenue at 49 4% and 163 1% of 4Q19 levels respectively [3] - The company's market share increased to 16 3% in 4Q23 from 9 7% in 4Q19, maintaining a full-year 2023 market share of 15 1% despite new property openings by competitors [3] - MGM Macau and MGM Cotai achieved mass market table daily drop of 104 0% and 121 8% of 2019 levels respectively [3] Operational Highlights - The company's operational performance remained strong in early 2024, with January adjusted property EBITDA and market share exceeding October 2023 peak levels [3] - Chinese New Year period saw visitor numbers and gaming volumes significantly surpassing 2019 levels [3] - The company has successfully hosted concerts by international and local artists, boosting non-gaming revenue and driving foot traffic [3] Valuation - The report sets a target price of HKD 16 8, with current EV/adjusted property EBITDA multiples of 10 0x, 8 8x, and 8 1x for 2023-2025 [3] - The stock is trading at HKD 12 58, with a 52-week range of HKD 9 20-12 94 [4]