Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2023 was slightly below expectations, with adjusted property EBITDA profit margins expected to recover to 2019 levels. The net revenue for Q4 2023 was HKD 10.32 billion, recovering to 79.5% of Q4 2019 levels, while adjusted property EBITDA was HKD 2.91 billion, recovering to 68.7% of the same period in 2019 [2][3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its long-term competitiveness through continuous renovations and new property developments, including the redesign of high-end gaming areas and the construction of new luxury hotel rooms [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report forecasts total revenue for 2023, 2024, and 2025 to be HKD 36.31 billion, HKD 43.70 billion, and HKD 47.81 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 216.5%, 20.3%, and 9.4% [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA is projected to be HKD 10.50 billion, HKD 13.83 billion, and HKD 15.82 billion for the same years [2] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/Adjusted Property EBITDA multiples of 17.34, 13.16, and 11.50 for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with a target price set at HKD 57.0 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China (2282 HK) [1] Core Views - MGM China's 4Q23 revenue and profits exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching HKD 7 68 billion (134 9% of 4Q19 levels) and adjusted property EBITDA of HKD 2 19 billion (140 6% of 4Q19 levels) [2] - The company's gaming revenue recovery outpaced the industry, with mass market (including slots) gaming revenue reaching 163 1% of 4Q19 levels, leading the industry by 59 percentage points [3] - Non-gaming revenue recovered to 159 1% of 4Q19 levels, driven by successful events and concerts [3] - The report raises 2023-2025 revenue forecasts to HKD 24 2 billion, HKD 26 77 billion, and HKD 28 42 billion respectively, with adjusted property EBITDA forecasts of HKD 7 13 billion, HKD 8 13 billion, and HKD 8 76 billion [3] Financial Performance - 4Q23 gaming revenue reached HKD 8 5 billion, recovering to 125 1% of 2019 levels, with VIP and mass market (including slots) gaming revenue at 49 4% and 163 1% of 4Q19 levels respectively [3] - The company's market share increased to 16 3% in 4Q23 from 9 7% in 4Q19, maintaining a full-year 2023 market share of 15 1% despite new property openings by competitors [3] - MGM Macau and MGM Cotai achieved mass market table daily drop of 104 0% and 121 8% of 2019 levels respectively [3] Operational Highlights - The company's operational performance remained strong in early 2024, with January adjusted property EBITDA and market share exceeding October 2023 peak levels [3] - Chinese New Year period saw visitor numbers and gaming volumes significantly surpassing 2019 levels [3] - The company has successfully hosted concerts by international and local artists, boosting non-gaming revenue and driving foot traffic [3] Valuation - The report sets a target price of HKD 16 8, with current EV/adjusted property EBITDA multiples of 10 0x, 8 8x, and 8 1x for 2023-2025 [3] - The stock is trading at HKD 12 58, with a 52-week range of HKD 9 20-12 94 [4]