"首次降息"的历史背景与资产规律 ➢ 经济有韧性+特朗普 2.0 叙事，短期降息空间或有限 美林时钟刻画下，当前中美经济周期及中国货币&信用条件均与 2019 年"预 防式"降息前更相似。国内货币及信用条件而言，当前及 2019 年我国货币 政策均较为宽松但 M2 增速下行。美林时钟视角，2019 年美国经济处于升 温阶段，中国经济增长则有所放缓，均与当前美国经济相对韧性、中国弱 复苏的宏观环境相似。此外，2019 年正值特朗普政府执政时期，中美贸易 关系恶化，与当前市场倾向交易"特朗普回归"的背景也有较高相似性。 作者 1 2 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 投 资 策 略│ 策 略 专 题 ➢ 本轮宽松的性质或为"软着陆"下的"预防式"降息 降息前后美债多稳定上涨，"预防式"降息情形下股商之间及商品内部存在 轮动。1971 年来，美联储共进行 4 次预防式降息，平均表现来看，受降息 预期催化，股债多于降息前 2 个月出现明显上涨；或受经济前景不确定性 扰动，降息前后 1 个月权益市场出现回调，金银债等避险资产占优；随着 降息进程推进、经济前景上调，业绩改善预期下权益资产多在降息 3-6 个 月内明显走高，且 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The international aviation manufacturing supply chain is currently facing significant bottlenecks despite a recovery in demand [10] - The demand for international air transport continues to recover, with a projected growth of 10.4% in total capacity for 2024 [12] - The supply side is struggling to restore peak production capacity, with OEM deliveries at historical lows [16] - There is a notable backlog of aircraft orders, with Boeing and Airbus having a combined backlog of over 14,000 aircraft [19] - The aircraft supply-demand imbalance is intensifying, with an order-to-delivery ratio of 2.70 as of Q1 2024 [22] - Airbus has adjusted its delivery targets for 2024 down to 770 aircraft due to ongoing supply chain issues [24] - Boeing's total orders and deliveries have significantly declined, with a 70% drop in orders in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year [30] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The global air passenger market saw a 10.7% year-on-year increase in capacity in May 2024, with international demand growing by 14.6% [12] - The total revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is expected to grow by 11.6% year-on-year in 2024 [12] Supply Side - Boeing and Airbus's combined monthly aircraft deliveries in the first half of 2024 were at their third-lowest level in a decade, at an average of 83 aircraft [16] - The supply chain has not recovered as expected due to various factors, including labor shortages and regulatory investigations affecting Boeing [16][27] - The backlog for narrow-body aircraft like the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320 is projected to take 9.5 years to fulfill based on current production rates [19] Order and Delivery Dynamics - The order-to-delivery ratio for narrow-body aircraft is significantly higher than the overall ratio, indicating a more pronounced supply-demand imbalance [22] - Airbus has reduced its 2024 delivery target from 800 to 770 aircraft due to supply chain constraints [24] - Boeing's total orders in the first half of 2024 were only 156, a 70% decrease from the previous year, with deliveries at 175 aircraft [30] Engine Supply Chain Issues - The aviation engine market is currently a bottleneck in the supply chain, with significant impacts from geopolitical factors affecting titanium supply [34] - The PW engine issue is expected to result in an average of 350 aircraft being grounded annually for inspections, similar to the impact of supply chain failures [36] Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturing - There are emerging opportunities for Chinese manufacturers to capture demand that cannot be met by Western aviation manufacturers due to their current constraints [38]

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 21 日 农林牧渔 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 如何看待 6 月生猪产能变动情况? ➢ 国家统计局/农业农村部能繁母猪 6 月环比持续增加 根据国家统计局/农业农村部数据,能繁母猪存栏 4038 万头,同比减少 259 万头,下降 6.0%,环比增加 46 万头,增长 1.1%。自 2023 年以来能繁母猪 持续去化至 2024 年 4 月,5 月首次环比转正,6 月为连续第二个月增加。 从生猪出栏看,去年 12 月份至今年 5 月份,全国新生仔猪数量同比下降 7%,预示下半年生猪出栏同比有所减少。 ➢ 涌益咨询 6 月能繁母猪存栏环比继续增加 涌益咨询样本点 6 月能繁母猪存栏环比增加。2024 年 6 月样本点 1 能繁母 猪存栏环比+0.61%(前值+0.73%),增幅有所缩小;2024 年 6 月样本点 2 能 繁母猪存栏量环比+0.46%(前值+0.32%)。目前中大型猪企业偏稳定谨慎, 部分受资金影响或疫病有少量减产。北方区域能繁母猪存栏量增幅较南方 偏大,东北地区增幅超过 1%,其中产能增幅主要来自于散户,而南方区域 由于产能较为充足,其增幅较 ...

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 24Q2 行业持仓环比微降,关注生猪养殖及水产链 ➢ 24Q2 农林牧渔行业基金配置小幅回落。 2024Q2 农林牧渔行业关注度环比小幅回落,具体数据来看,2024Q2 基金重 仓农林牧渔行业比例为 1.55%,环比-0.09pcts;行业超配比例为 0.25%, 环比-0.02pcts。 ➢ 养殖板块仍为主要配置方向,其次为饲料板块。 猪价自 5 月中旬起快速上涨,但市场对价格上涨的持续性有所担忧。在此 背景下,养殖板块基金重仓比例/超配比例环比小幅下降,2024Q2 基金重仓 比例为 1.06%,环比-0.02pcts;超配比例 0.42%,环比-0.03pcts。受水产 价格回升、畜禽养殖整体盈利影响,饲料板块基金重仓比例/超配比例环比 小幅上升,2024Q2 基金重仓比例为 0.41%,环比+0.05pcts;超配比例 0.20%, 环比+0.05pcts。 ➢ 动保及种植行业仍处低配状态。 非洲猪瘟疫苗推进进程不及预期,下游禽畜存栏偏低导致动保企业销售承 压,在此背景下动保板块基金重仓比例/超配比例偏低且环比下降,2024Q2 基金重 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 21 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 点 评 研 究 轻工制造 2024Q2 轻工板块基金持仓点评: 家居造纸持仓下降,部分消费细分龙头获小幅加仓 ➢ 轻工重仓比例 0.83%,环比下降 0.27pct 据中信分类口径,2024Q2 轻工公募基金重仓比例为 0.83%,环比-0.27pct, 处于 2010 年以来 48%分位数水平。二季度轻工基金配置比例排名第 20,加 仓幅度排名第 25,前 3 名依次是电子、通信和电力及公用事业。板块走势 上,2024Q2 中信轻工制造指数下跌 13.78%,跑输沪深 300 指数 11.64pct, 跑输上证综指 11.35pct,二季度绝对收益排名第 25 位。受地产及消费影 响,二季度家居造纸板块均有所承压,基金持仓比例也回到 2024Q1 水平。 ➢ 2024Q2 包装印刷重仓比例环比提升 2024Q2 轻工子板块重仓比例排序依次为家居(0.41%)、文娱用品(0.27%)、 造纸(0.22%)、包装印刷(0.07%),其中包装印刷(+0.01pct)重仓比例环 比提升,家居(-0.12pct)、造纸(-0.05pct)、文娱 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][16]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300-335 million yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 140%-168% [1][4]. - The automotive and consumer electronics sectors are driving strong performance, with significant sales growth from major clients [4][14]. - The company is benefiting from improved operational efficiency and cost control, leading to an increase in gross margin and profitability [4][16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 4.23 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 35.17% [7]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 642 million yuan, reflecting an 80.12% increase [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 1.52 yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% from 2024 to 2026 [16]. Market Trends - The penetration rate of L2+ vehicles reached 9.25% from January to May 2024, an increase of 4.43 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for advanced driving features [6][16]. - The company’s automotive business is expected to benefit from the rising demand for high-speed connectors as the market for advanced driver-assistance systems expands [15][16]. Client Performance - Major automotive clients such as Geely, Chery, Changan, and Great Wall Motors reported significant sales growth in Q2 2024, with year-on-year increases of 29%, 41%, 6%, and a slight decrease of 5% respectively [14]. - The consumer electronics segment is also performing well, with Huawei's P70 launch boosting sales, and other brands like Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo showing positive growth [14].

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 20 日 公 司 报 告│ 公 司 季 报 点 评 天孚通信(300394) 业绩保持高增长,产品量产有望加速 事件: 7 月 17 日,公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告:报告期内预计实现归母净 利润 6.30-6.77 亿元,同比增长 167.00%-187.00%;扣非归母净利润 6.17- 6.64 亿元,同比增长 173.56%-194.48%。其中 2024Q2 预计实现归母净利润 3.51-3.98 亿元,同比增长 143.75%-176.39%,环比增长 25.81%-42.65%; 扣非归母净利润 3.48-3.95 亿元,同比增长 148.57%-182.14%,环比增长 29.37%-46.84%。 ➢ 硅光器件市场占比有望翻倍提升,公司重视硅光产品研发投入 根据 LightCounting,英伟达正在优先考虑将硅光子技术用于下一代收发 器;LightCounting 预计,2022-2028 年,基于硅光光调制器收发器的市场 份额将 24%上升到 44%。公司持续对硅光模块产品进行研发,针对硅光类产 品的高功率要求,开发出适应于高功率应用的 AW ...

In fact, there are a lot of events in Guangzhou, including some policies. We can see that one is the end of the Sino-U.S. Triathlon, and then there are some announcements and some content. We can have a good chat with you during today's live broadcast, and these contents will have a long-term impact on our future capital market. In addition, we saw in the morning that the central bank reduced the return on investment from 1.8% to 1.7% in 7 days. This is equivalent to a drop in interest rates. For our capita ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 21 日 农林牧渔 酒 外 中 | 中 2 妒何看待6月生猪产能变动情况? 国家统计局/农业农村爷能养养猪6月环比村续增加 A 根据国家统计局/农业农村部数据, 能繁母猪有栏 4038 万头, 同比减少 259 万头,下降 6. 0%,环比增加 46 万头,增长 1. 1%。自 2023 年以未能 繁母猪 持续去化至 2024 年 4 月,5 月首次环比转正,6 月为连续第二个月增加。 从生猪出栏着,去年 12 月份至今年 5 月份,全国新生仔猪数量同比下降 7%,预示下半年生猪出栏同比有所减少。 涌盆客询 6 月 舱紫寺雑奇栏环比维埃增加 A 涌盖咨询样本点6月能繁母猪存栏环比增加。2024 年6月样本点1能繁母 猪 弃栏环比+0. 61%(前值+0. 73%) 塔 有所缩小:2024 年 6 月 样 本 点 2 能 紫母猪存栏登环比+0. 46%(前值+0. 32%)。目前中大型猪企业偏稳定谨慎, 部分受貧金影响義疫病有少量减产。北方区域能繁母猪有栏量增幅较南方 偏大,东北地区增幅超过 1%,其中产能增幅主委未自于散产,而南方区域 由于产能较为充足,其增幅较小。 Ny ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the international aviation industry [1]. Core Insights - The international aviation transport demand is continuously recovering, with a strong growth forecast for the coming years, particularly in international markets [4]. - The supply chain for international aviation manufacturing is facing significant bottlenecks, making it difficult to restore peak supply capabilities in the short term [6]. - The backlog of aircraft orders is substantial, indicating a growing demand that exceeds current supply capabilities [8][11]. Demand Side Summary - The global aviation passenger market showed a year-on-year growth of 10.7% in total capacity and 14.6% in international market demand as of May 2024 [4]. - The total capacity is expected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) projected to increase by 11.6% [4]. Supply Side Summary - The production capacity of OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) has dropped to historical lows, with Boeing and Airbus delivering an average of only 83 aircraft per month in the first half of 2024, which is significantly below the peak capacity of 62 aircraft per month in 2018 [6]. - Multiple factors are hindering the recovery of the supply chain, including workforce shortages due to pandemic-related layoffs, regulatory investigations affecting Boeing's production, and ongoing issues with engine suppliers [6][13]. Order Backlog Summary - As of May 2024, Boeing and Airbus have a combined backlog of over 14,000 aircraft, with narrow-body aircraft orders taking approximately 9.5 years to fulfill at current production rates [8][11]. - The order-to-delivery ratio has increased to 2.70, indicating a trend of heightened demand for aircraft, particularly narrow-body models like the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 [11]. Airbus and Boeing Delivery Outlook - Airbus has revised its 2024 delivery target from 800 to 770 aircraft due to ongoing supply chain issues, with a significant portion of its production constrained by engine supply challenges [13]. - Boeing's deliveries have also been impacted, with a 70% year-on-year decline in total orders and only 175 aircraft delivered in the first half of 2024 [18].