量价角度下，地产拖累有望收窄 售比回到合理区间。参照美国和日本的经验，地产投资对 GDP 的贡献中 枢在 4%-6%区间，中国目前正在回落到这个中枢区间。价的角度来看， 大型地产泡沫破灭后，地产成交价格往往会经历 4 年的下行时间和 20% 左右的幅度，当前我国三、四线城市房价已经回落至海外地产泡沫后的 平均线以下，距离下降 20%的平均回落幅度仅有 3%左右的差距。 2） "量"的层面，我国新开工面积在 4 年时间回落了 60%，时间和幅度均 远超海外均值。参考海外经验，大型地产泡沫破灭后，新开工房屋套数 往往会经历约 8 年的下行时间和 40%的幅度。 3） 中性假设下，我们测算新房需求下限或约为 6.9 亿平方米，当前地产 销售面积距离刚性需求的中枢已经不远。在"存量房时代"的假设下， 新房需求主要来自旧房的更新需求和缓慢的城镇化进程。此种情景下， 对新房的需求将会是一个比较刚性的水平。因此，在中国房屋更新换代 周期为 30 年、城镇化率每年提高 0.75%的中性假设下，我们测算新房 需求下限或约为 6.9 亿平方米。 作者 1 | --- | --- | |-----------------|---- ...

证券研究报告 证券Ⅱ 关于证监会《依法批准暂停转融券业务进一步强化 融券逆周期调节》点评:市场情绪有望企稳修复 ➢ 事件: 证监会批准中证金自 7 月 11 日起暂停转融券,存量转融券合约 9 月 30 日 之前了结。交易所融券保证金率由 80%提升至 100%,私募基金由 100%提升 至 120%,7 月 22 日实施。 ➢ 再次上调保证金比例,发挥监管逆周期调节作用 和暂停转融券同步,此次监管再次提高了融券保证金比例。此前,在 2023 年 10 月 14 日,监管将融券保证金比例由不得低于 50%上调至 80%,私募证 券投资基金参与融券的保证金比例上调至 100%。证监会此次调整对存量业 务分别明确了依法展期和新老划断安排,这有助于防范业务风险,维护市 场稳健有序运行。中长期来看,融资融券制度作为资本市场基础交易制度 之一,制度优化有助于推动资本市场高质量发展。 ➢ 监管持续加码调节,一定程度上有利于提振市场信心 2024 年以来,监管持续收紧转融通业务。1 月 29 日起,证监会要求全面暂 停限售股出借;3 月 18 日起,转融券交易由 T+0 转为 T+1。政策加码下, 2024 年年初至 6 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 11 日 建筑材料及新材料 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 水泥新国标有哪些影响? 水泥新国标多方面要求提升 《通用硅酸盐水泥》(标准号:GB 175-2023)于 2024/6/1 正式实施。相较 于 2008/6/1 实施的旧国标,新国标由"条文强制"转变为"全文强制", 要求熟料/石膏/混材的生产配比必须满足条款规定,我们预计将提高单位 水泥熟料的实际用量,以及水泥组分等/产品性能等提出了更规范/边际更 高的要求,对行业发展预计有长期的积极影响。新国标亦与时俱进增加了 相关产品安全类指标如对水溶性铬及放射性核素有新增要求。 新国标对水泥组分和质量要求更严格,或将提高水泥生产成本 新国标的实施将提高水泥生产成本:1)我们用熟料/水泥产量比例衡量熟 料质量占比,2018 年以来熟料质量占比基本维持在 66%左右,我们预计新 国标实施后水泥中熟料质量占比将提高至少 10pct。2)新国标对混合材料 的组分以及质量要求更为严格,混合材料单位成本或有所增加。我们对水 泥生产成本进行弹性测算,中性情境(水泥熟料占比提升 10pct、混合材单 位成本提升 5%)预计新国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company faces pressure on new contract signing growth due to a sluggish domestic cement industry, but the transformation prospects remain promising [2]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with an uncompleted contract amount of 59.2 billion, which is 1.3 times the revenue of 2023 [2]. - The operational and maintenance segments show high growth, while engineering and equipment segments continue to face challenges [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its competitiveness and optimizing its business model through digitalization and green initiatives [5]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing and Performance - In H1 2024, the company signed new contracts worth 37.1 billion, down 9% year-on-year, with Q2 alone seeing a 16% decline [2]. - The operational and maintenance segments achieved new contracts of 8.9 billion and 3.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 41% [3]. - The company’s overseas new contracts grew by 9% year-on-year, while domestic contracts fell by 28% [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 50.5 billion, 56.4 billion, and 63.8 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 13% [5]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 3.3 billion, 3.8 billion, and 4.3 billion respectively, with growth rates of 13% each year [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 1.25, 1.42, and 1.62 yuan per share [5]. Valuation Metrics - The current price is 10.25 yuan, with a projected dynamic dividend yield of approximately 4.9% based on a 40% payout ratio [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 12.3 in 2022 to 6.3 by 2026 [6]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 1.9 in 2022 to 1.0 in 2026 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus [8] Core Views - The company's fundamentals are improving, with Q2 2024 earnings exceeding expectations, projecting a net profit of 1.55-1.79 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 230%-280% [2] - The industry is experiencing high growth in sales driven by both export and domestic demand, with wholesale sales of large and medium buses increasing by 50.3% year-on-year from January to May 2024 [3] - The sales structure is continuously optimizing, with significant growth in export sales contributing to the company's performance, particularly in the high-margin new energy bus segment [4] - The company has maintained strong cash flow over the long term, supporting a high dividend policy, with dividends increasing from 1.1 billion yuan in 2017 to 3.3 billion yuan in 2023 [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 34.36 billion, 40.93 billion, and 44.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.1%, 19.1%, and 9.1% respectively [6] - Expected net profits for the same period are 3.47 billion, 4.28 billion, and 4.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 90.8%, 23.5%, and 13.5% respectively [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.57, 1.93, and 2.19 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [6]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the media industry [4][5] Core Views - The 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) highlighted the acceleration of AI application ecosystems, with over 500 companies participating, including major tech firms like Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba, as well as AI startups such as MiniMax, Baichuan Intelligence, and StepFun [1][6] - The domestic AI model competition has entered its second half, with a focus on multi-modal generation capabilities, vertical application landing, and commercialization exploration [1][6] - Both tech giants and startups are actively advancing AI model capabilities and exploring commercialization paths, with significant progress in search, Q&A, and emotional companionship applications [4] Tech Giants: Focus on Multi-modal Capabilities and Business Synergy - **Baidu**: Enhanced model quality and reduced costs, with ERNIE 4.0 Turbo priced at 0.03/0.06 yuan per thousand tokens, and launched industry-specific solutions in education, HR, enterprise services, entertainment, and healthcare [7] - **Tencent**: Introduced "Tencent Yuanbao," an AI assistant covering work efficiency and entertainment, and showcased multiple C-end applications like XMusic and "Create! Our Planet" [9][10] - **Alibaba**: Highlighted "Tongyi Lingma," a smart coding tool with 350 million downloads, and "Alipay Smart Assistant," which integrates various life services [11] - **SenseTime**: Released "Rixin 5o," a multi-modal model comparable to GPT-4o, and "Vimi," a video generation model capable of producing stable 1-minute character videos [13] - **Kuaishou**: Upgraded its "Keling" model, generating 7 million videos, and launched a web version with enhanced capabilities [13] - **NetEase**: Showcased its multi-modal assistant "Danqing Yue" and announced the launch of a game Copilot in "Naraka: Bladepoint" [15] - **Bilibili**: Displayed its self-developed LLM and AI-powered dynamic comic technology, enhancing content creation efficiency [16] AI "New Forces": Accelerating Application Landing and Commercialization - **MiniMax**: Demonstrated multiple C-end applications like "Conch AI" and "Starry," and served over 30,000 enterprises and developers [17] - **Baichuan Intelligence**: Focused on healthcare applications, showcasing "Baixiao Ying" and an AI health advisor [18] - **Zhipu AI**: Upgraded its CodeGeeX model, serving over 400,000 enterprise clients with daily API calls reaching 60 billion tokens [19] - **StepFun**: Released three new models and collaborated with Shanghai Film for IP-based AI interactive experiences [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rapid AI C-end application landing, such as Kunlun Wanwei and Shengtian Network, as well as undervalued gaming companies like恺英网络 and Giant Network [4]

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 07 日 传媒 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 点 评 研 究 2024 世界人工智能大会:聚焦 AI 多模态、产品化 ➢ 行业事件: 2024 年 7 月 4 日,世界人工智能大会在上海召开。参与公司数量超过 500 家,包括百度、腾讯、阿里巴巴等头部互联网科技大厂,也包括 MiniMax、 百川智能、阶跃星辰等明星 AI 创业公司。整体来看,和 2023 年 WAIC 相 比,国内 AI 大模型"百模大战"进入下半场。在模型能力(特别是多模态 生成能力)持续迭代的同时,垂直领域的 AI 应用落地,以及商业化方式的 探索,成为大模型公司关注的焦点。 ➢ 科技大厂:聚焦多模态生成能力,加强自身业务协同 国内头部互联网科技企业是 AI 大模型最为积极的参与者之一。2024 年发 展路径更为聚焦:1)多模态生成能力,如快手"可灵"开放网页版、性能 较此前进一步升级,目前视频生成数量已达 700 万;商汤推出对标 GPT-4o 的多模态大模型"日日新 5o",以及视频生成模型 Vimi,可稳定生成 1 分 钟人物类视频。2)推出 Agent 智能助理:如蚂蚁集团推出的"支付宝智能 助 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 09 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 汽车 从渠道看整车竞争格局变化 引言:渠道、销量、利润的三角循环 汽车销量是产品、品牌以及渠道三者综合实力的体现。本篇报告以汽车品 牌的渠道、销量、财务数据入手,旨在厘清三者之间的作用效果。当产品 力下滑,销量开始下降,经销商降价促销,影响车企利润和渠道利润,最 终部分经销商选择退网,又会加速销量下滑;与之相反,产品力上升,销 量提升,后续每一环节会反向而行,最终吸引更多的经销商加入,助推销 量进一步提升。 渠道是销量、利润变化的加速器 产品力下滑,品牌的销量变化过程通常会经历见顶、缓慢下降、加速下降 三个阶段。进入销量放缓的负循环时,车企多采取"以价换量"策略,初期 奏效,但长期不可持续,ASP 会明显下降。终端销量下滑导致车企和渠道利 润受挤压,渠道库存系数高增,渠道经营持续承压。经销商数量变化滞后 于品牌销量,经历扩网、见顶、退网三个阶段。渠道收缩或将反作用于销 量,加速品牌销量下滑。 从当前渠道变化看未来整车格局演绎 当前经销商经营压力大,由于产品力变化,品牌经销商纷纷选择更换阵营。 对比 2022 年 4 月和 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 如何评价车企端到端能力? ➢ 引言:为何关注智能驾驶端到端大模型进展? 端到端大模型是实现高阶智能驾驶功能的主要路径。端到端神经网络可以 充分简化运算步骤,减少人工特征工程的需要,并识别出数据中关联性, 充分提升计算效率。受益于有效行为轨迹数据规模提升,智能驾驶端到端 大模型有望成为高阶智能驾驶解决方案。2023 年开始,模块化的端到端规 划模式加速,逐步成为代表智能驾驶实现高阶功能迭代的主要方向。 ➢ 如何评价车企智能驾驶端到端大模型能力? 参考大模型的发展,端到端智能驾驶大模型具备涌现效应。我们认为,评 价模型主要参数指标为车端轨迹数据规模、训练数据能力、软件开发能力。 (1)车端轨迹数据规模:具备集中式域架构和车端具备较大算力的车型累 计销量及累计里程;(2)训练模型能力,主要包括智算中心算力、云端训 练能力和数据存储能力,训练算力成为运算速度的关键,云架构优化算力 编排,数据存储能力决定可训练车端轨迹数据规模;(3)软件开发能力, 各家代码并不开源,无法直观评价各家智能驾驶模型。我们集中在车端轨 迹数据规模和训练数据能力两个维度,使用研发费用替代软件开发能力。 ➢ 当下车企智能驾驶 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its leadership in the lithium battery precision structural components industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The company has established itself as a leader in the precision structural components industry, focusing on lithium battery components and automotive structural parts, with a strong growth trajectory supported by technological and customer advantages [2][12]. - The report anticipates significant growth in the global precision structural components market, driven by the demand for new energy vehicles and policy support, with projected market sizes of 51.5 billion, 59.7 billion, and 70.4 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, representing a CAGR of 19% [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from its technological advancements, customer relationships, and management efficiency, leading to improved profitability despite industry challenges [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a pioneer in the domestic precision structural components industry, with a focus on lithium battery components since its inception [19]. - It has expanded its product offerings to cover various types of battery structures, including cylindrical and square batteries, and has established a strong customer base [26][30]. Market Dynamics - The demand for precision structural components is expected to rise due to the ongoing growth in new energy vehicle sales, with a reported 32.5% year-on-year increase in sales in the first five months of 2024 [37]. - The report highlights the favorable policies supporting the growth of the lithium battery market, including subsidies for new energy vehicles and tax exemptions [40][41]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.136 billion, 15.888 billion, and 19.176 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.97%, 20.95%, and 20.70% respectively [7][15]. - Net profits are expected to reach 1.435 billion, 1.730 billion, and 2.113 billion yuan over the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 19.47%, 20.60%, and 22.14% [7][15].