根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 好的 尊敬的各位投资者晚上好今天我们消费大组的策略24年下半年的中期策略消费大组的系列交流今天是我们建材板块的这样一个观点的汇报实际上我们对下半年的看法我们浓缩在报告的标题里面 简单来讲就是分两部分去探讨一个是地产链的材料会怎么样一个是非地产链领域实际上这个细分领域比较多我们对其中一些我们认为有机会的一些板块做了一些重点的论述以及强调简单来讲 从地产链的角度核心水泥浮法玻璃以及装修建材这三个领域当然三个领域各自有各自特点整体来讲我们叫它地产链核心地产的需求对这几个品种的需求还是有重大影响的具体去看 像装修建材和氟化玻璃可能跟地产的需求有一个更加紧密的关系这个水泥可能受到地产的需求也会有比较多的比较重大的这种影响带来的一个变化实际上客观我们在这个报告里面也对这个地产的这个过去一段时间的这个需求经期度以及这个 整体上我们对这三个方面我们在报告里面有一些具体论述但是我们觉得需求可能还是需 ...

电力设备 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 市场复苏叠加 AI 浪潮提振消费电池景气度 当前 AI 手机、AIPC 的加速渗透,有望加速消费电子产品的更新换代,带动 消费电池行业景气度复苏。2020-2021 年手机、电脑销售高峰期新购机用户 预计也将陆续进入换机周期,我们认为 2024H2 消费电池市场将持续回暖。 消费电池市场格局集中 由于下游客户对消费电池在能量密度、安全性等方面有较高要求,因此电 池供应商需有强大的研发和品控能力,使消费电池市场集中度较高。2023 年全球智能手机市场中,ATL、三星 SDI、LG 化学、比亚迪、珠海冠宇为主 要头部企业,CR5 为 75.2%。2023 年珠海冠宇 PC 及平板电脑锂电池市占率 为 31.1%,全球排名第二。国内消费电池主要厂商为珠海冠宇、欣旺达和德 赛电池。珠海冠宇主要以电芯为主,欣旺达、德赛电池主要以 PACK 为主。 传统消费电池市场需求向好 2023Q3/2023Q4/2024Q1 全球智能手机销量分别为 3.0/3.2/2.9 亿台,同比 +1%/+9%/+7%。2023 年智能手机全球换机周期 51 个月,中国 40 个月,2021 ...

证券研究报告 家用电器 新兴市场的来路与征程 复苏后半程新兴市场弹性突出 > 本轮出口周期自 2023 年进入修复通道, 2024 年起频超预期,持续好于中 个位数的历史中枢;期间新兴市场恢复节奏与出口整体基本同步,但复苏 后半程弹性突出,增速大幅超越低基数修复范畴。2023年我国近1/3 家电 品类出口规模创历史新高,若从增量视角拆分区域贡献,头部新兴与长尾 市场都功不可没,拉美增速与增量均在前列,亚洲中东空调增长突出,东 南亚小家电表现较好,且各品类前20以外长尾市场均有"超额增量"贡献。 高增出口目的地需求难言景气 A 增长的来由不外乎景气和格局,以2023年我国家电出口高增的 12个新兴 国家为样本,其欧容口径下家电零售表现平淡,提速国家占比不足五成且 幅度有限。以宏观环境佐证,主要新兴国家实际产出增长第一梯队仅与中 国相近,南美两国明显偏弱,而中国出口及本土零售表现相对较好的巴西 和土耳其，通胀波动较大且地产低迷，整体宏观环境也未提供耐用品需求 走强的条件。综上,对新兴出口高增的事实,结构性的弱景气缺乏解释力。 A 中国制造竞争力提升或是正解 需求拉力无显著增强,题眼就落在供给的推力。相对同为全球家 ...

证券研究报告 家用电器 新兴市场的来路与征程 复苏后半程新兴市场弹性突出 本轮出口周期自 2023 年进入修复通道，2024 年起频超预期，持续好于中 个位数的历史中枢；期间新兴市场恢复节奏与出口整体基本同步，但复苏 后半程弹性突出，增速大幅超越低基数修复范畴。2023 年我国近 1/3 家电 品类出口规模创历史新高，若从增量视角拆分区域贡献，头部新兴与长尾 市场都功不可没，拉美增速与增量均在前列，亚洲中东空调增长突出，东 南亚小家电表现较好，且各品类前 20 以外长尾市场均有"超额增量"贡献。 高增出口目的地需求难言景气 增长的来由不外乎景气和格局，以 2023 年我国家电出口高增的 12 个新兴 国家为样本，其欧睿口径下家电零售表现平淡，提速国家占比不足五成且 幅度有限。以宏观环境佐证，主要新兴国家实际产出增长第一梯队仅与中 国相近，南美两国明显偏弱，而中国出口及本土零售表现相对较好的巴西 和土耳其，通胀波动较大且地产低迷，整体宏观环境也未提供耐用品需求 走强的条件。综上，对新兴出口高增的事实，结构性的弱景气缺乏解释力。 中国制造竞争力提升或是正解 需求拉力无显著增强，题眼就落在供给的推力。相对同为全球家 ...

雅迪控股(01585) 雅迪控股公司深度: 国内领航,迈向国际 雅迪国内领航,稳步迈向国际 雅迪控股是电动两轮车行业的领航者,主营电动自行车、电动踏板车、电 池等业务。2017-2023 年公司收入、业绩复合增速分别达到 28%、37%,成 绩傲人;收入快速增长的同时,公司盈利中枢在 2020 年后明显提升,2023 年净利率达到 7.6%。行业层面,当下中国占全球电动两轮车消费的绝大部 分,但海外市场近年来迎来新的发展机遇,预计未来空间广阔;雅迪收入 仍以内销为主,随着公司开始积极布局海外开拓新增长力,后续发展可期。 国内:行业格局优化,走向集中 我们预计电动两轮车当前正处于格局加速集中的黄金阶段:一方面,以雅 迪为代表的龙头自身实力大幅增强,龙头积极在渠道质量提升、供应链垂 直整合、产品研发等层面大幅投入,巩固经营壁垒,优势逐渐扩大;另一 方面,2024 年行业有望迎来政策大年,全国大范围设备"以旧换新"提振 更新需求,且行业已出台新规范文件,叠加后续新国标落地,企业经营标 准趋严背景下,中小企业预计进一步出清,雅迪等龙头份额有望加速提升。 海外:政策驱动,市场空间广阔 海外市场在政策驱动下,两轮车开始电 ...

投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 各位投资者晚上好我是国联证券的商社研究员李冰因为老破黄金的话也是我们板块就是最近一个重点要上市的一个新股然后这个公司我们研究下来的话觉得还是非常有意思的因为首先就是我觉得最重要的一点就是目前国内高端的珠宝市场是以外资品牌为主的包括大家耳熟能详的房车雅宝、宝格丽、Tiffany、卡蒂亚等等品牌 那老铺黄金就是稀缺的,就是我们把它定义成一个稀缺的出具奢侈品牌精英的中国黄金珠宝品牌,我觉得有两个关键词,第一个是中国,它是相对国内的周大山大福这个品牌来说的话,相对海外那些外型品牌来说,它是我们中国自己的,然后第二个关键词它是黄金珠宝, 因为我们都知道目前的国际的一个高端珠宝品牌的话大多是集中在钻石和配金的那就是在黄金珠宝市场就是跑出 ...

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the pig farming sector is "Outperform the Market" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming market is currently in an upward cycle, with a potential price increase due to supply shortages and a reduction in breeding sow inventory [24][25]. - The breeding sow inventory as of May 2024 is reported at 39.96 million heads, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, which is expected to lead to a reduction in pig output in the second half of the year [10][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the market for signs of recovery and the potential for price increases, with expectations that pig prices may exceed 20 yuan/kg in the near future [25][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Breeding Sow Inventory - As of May 2024, the breeding sow inventory has shown a month-on-month increase for the first time, with a total of 39.96 million heads, although this is still a decrease from the previous year [10][12]. - Various consulting firms report a narrowing increase in breeding sow inventory, with Mysteel indicating a 0.43% increase in May compared to previous months [3][13]. - The northern regions show a larger increase in breeding sow inventory compared to the southern regions, primarily driven by smallholder farms [12][13]. 2. Price Trends and Production Capacity Changes - In June, pig prices initially surged to 19 yuan/kg but subsequently fell due to decreased demand after the holiday [18][20]. - The average weight of pigs being sold has slightly increased, with a notable rise in the proportion of lighter pigs being sold [20][24]. - The report suggests that pig prices are expected to gradually rise, supported by a tightening supply situation and increasing consumer demand in the latter half of the year [24][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on the pig farming sector's right-side investment opportunities, highlighting companies with strong performance and low valuations [5][28]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, along with suggestions for related sectors such as animal health and feed [5][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation, international expansion, and the aging economy in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors [5]. Medical Devices - The global medical device market was valued at $684.3 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $766.7 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% [1][12]. - The proportion of Chinese medical device companies in the global revenue TOP100 increased from 14% in 2010 to 18% in 2023, indicating a growing presence in the global market [21] [20]. - The export of medical devices is transitioning from low-value consumables to mid-to-high-end devices such as CT, MRI, ultrasound, and in vitro diagnostics [1][28]. Pharmaceuticals - High-quality innovation is becoming the main theme in the development of domestic pharmaceuticals, with 40 innovative drug licensing deals in 2023-2024, seven of which received over $150 million in upfront payments [2]. - The introduction of supportive policies for innovative drug development reflects the government's encouragement for high-quality innovation [2]. - The surplus in medical insurance funds provides a guarantee for increasing the proportion of innovative drug reimbursements [2]. Retail Pharmacies - The retail pharmacy sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing prescription outflow, with sales increasing from 337.5 billion yuan in 2016 to 553.3 billion yuan in 2023, and the terminal market share rising from 22.5% to 29.3% [3]. - The concentration of the retail pharmacy industry is anticipated to increase as leading pharmacies expand through self-built stores, acquisitions, and franchises [3]. Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - The aging population, which accounted for 15.4% of the population in 2023, is expected to drive demand for health management, benefiting TCM [4]. - The price of Chinese medicinal materials increased by 17.4% year-on-year by the end of 2023, with an 8.51% increase from early 2024 to May, suggesting potential for price increases in TCM OTC products [4]. Investment Recommendations - For the medical device sector, the report recommends focusing on leading companies in various sub-sectors, such as Mindray Medical, Yuyue Medical, and Huaitai Medical [5]. - In the pharmaceutical sector, it suggests looking at high-quality innovative drugs with "First-in-Class" (FIC) or "Best-in-Class" (BIC) potential, recommending companies like Heng Rui Medicine, Kangfang Biotech, and Innovent Biologics [5]. - For TCM, it highlights leading OTC brands that benefit from the aging trend, recommending China Resources Sanjiu and Dong-E E-Jiao [5]. - In the retail pharmacy sector, it advises focusing on compliant and large-scale leading enterprises, particularly Yifeng Pharmacy, while also suggesting attention to other players like Lao Baixing, Dazhonglin, Yixin Tang, and Jianzhijia [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the express delivery sector [5]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing sustained high demand, with a significant year-on-year growth in business volume. The total express delivery volume reached 14.78 billion pieces in May, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [2][12]. - The average single ticket price in the industry has seen a controlled decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.78% in May. The overall price competition remains manageable despite some fluctuations [3][22]. - The market concentration has slightly increased, with the CR8 index rising to 85.2 in May, indicating a stable market share among leading express delivery brands [4][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Volume: Sustained High Demand - The retail sales in May reached 3.92 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and the online shopping penetration rate increased to 24.7% [12]. - The express delivery volume for May was 14.78 billion pieces, showing a year-on-year growth of 23.8% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [2][12]. - Leading express brands have outperformed the industry growth rate, with significant increases in their respective volumes [17]. 2. Single Ticket Price: Seasonal Price Fluctuations - The average single ticket price in May was 7.85 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.21% and a month-on-month decline of 1.78% [22]. - Price strategies among express companies show significant differentiation, with intense competition in low-price segments [27][31]. 3. Industry Structure: Slight Increase in Concentration - The CR8 index for express delivery brands increased to 85.2 in May, indicating a slight rise in market concentration compared to April [4][34]. - The market shares of leading companies remain stable, with SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express holding shares of 7.58%, 15.45%, 13.81%, and 13.16% respectively [4][37]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Profitability Potential - With the expected increase in business volume and manageable price competition, the report suggests focusing on leading companies with stable profitability in the express delivery sector [5][39].

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [5]. Core Insights - The potential production capacity of allulose is expected to increase significantly, reaching 128,000 tons, compared to the current capacity of 15,000 tons, indicating an increase of over eight times. This is attributed to allulose's advantages such as good sugar reduction functionality, similar taste to sucrose, natural without side effects, and anti-inflammatory properties that regulate blood sugar levels [2][12]. - The domestic market for allulose is anticipated to open quickly once it receives approval from the National Health Commission (NHC). The approval process has accelerated recently, and if granted within the next two years, companies that have positioned themselves early in the allulose market are likely to benefit significantly [3][17]. - Internationally, establishing production facilities overseas presents another strategic opportunity for allulose companies. The U.S. FDA has approved allulose as a food additive, and companies that set up production bases abroad can benefit from tariff advantages and increased orders due to supply chain optimization [4][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Opportunities for Allulose - Allulose is recognized as a healthy natural sugar substitute, with a growing market driven by aging populations. It serves as a better alternative to sucrose and erythritol [9][10]. - The domestic market for allulose is expected to open rapidly due to its favorable properties, with significant replacement potential in the sugar market, which is estimated at 15.5 million tons in 2023 [15][17]. 2. Investment Recommendations - Attention should be paid to the progress of allulose's approval as a new food ingredient, as this will benefit the entire industry [22][23]. - Companies that are establishing overseas production bases for allulose should be prioritized, especially those that are the first to do so, as they are likely to gain significant tariff reductions and order advantages [24].