证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|复星医药（600196） 制药、器械和医疗服务经营向好 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 复星医药发布 2024 年中报，上半年实现收入 204.63 亿元，同比减少 4.36%，实现归母净利 12.25 亿元，同比减少 31.09%，实现扣非归母净利 12.54 亿元，同比减少 8.64%。公司第二季 度实现收入 103.06 亿，同比减少 2.08%，实现扣非归母净利 6.46 亿，同比增长 42.41%。 |分析师及联系人 夏禹 郑薇 SAC：S0590518070004 SAC：S0590521070002 复星医药(600196) 制药、器械和医疗服务经营向好 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------------| | 行 业： | 医药生物/化学制药 | | 投资评级： | 增持（维持） | | 当前价格： | 22.30 元 | | 基本数据 | | | 总股本/流通股本(百万股) | 2,672.40/2,670.43 | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) | 47,242 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhejiang Dingli (603338) is "Buy" [7][11]. Core Views - The report indicates that the domestic aerial work platform industry is experiencing lower-than-expected demand, while overseas sales are impacted by exchange rates, tariffs, and international political relations. The projected revenue for the company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 77.32 billion, 92.80 billion, and 108.46 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 21.31 billion, 25.42 billion, and 31.08 billion yuan, reflecting a CAGR of 18.52%. The EPS is projected to be 4.21, 5.02, and 6.14 yuan per share for the same period. The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business and enhancing cooperation with large leasing companies, which is expected to generate new demand for its diversified products [3][11]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 38.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.24 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.88% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue reached 24.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34%, and net profit was 5.22 billion yuan, up by 1.95% [11][12]. - The sales revenue from the company's boom lift products grew by 57.67% year-on-year, accounting for 48.57% of the main business revenue. The electric versions of these products saw a sales increase of 38.87% year-on-year [11][12]. - The company's gross margin remained stable at 35.30%, while the net margin decreased significantly to 21.37%, down by 5.47 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in sales expenses by 74.26% and foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations were identified as key factors for the decline in net margin [11][12]. Financial Forecast - The financial forecast for Zhejiang Dingli includes projected revenues of 77.32 billion, 92.80 billion, and 108.46 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.31 billion, 25.42 billion, and 31.08 billion yuan for the same years, with an EPS of 4.21, 5.02, and 6.14 yuan per share [12][14]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to grow from 2.63 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.74 billion yuan in 2026, with a corresponding increase in the EBITDA margin [12][14]. Market Position - Zhejiang Dingli is recognized as a leader in the aerial work platform industry, with stable operational capabilities. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's ongoing efforts to expand its overseas market and diversify its product offerings [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home (600690) is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - Haier Smart Home reported stable revenue and excellent performance in its 2024 mid-year report, with Q2 revenue of 66.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.647 billion yuan, up 13.15% year-on-year [3][10] - The company experienced pressure on domestic sales in Q2, while overseas markets showed steady growth. The gross profit margin and expense ratios improved, indicating strong operational momentum [3][10] - Looking ahead, domestic sales are expected to gradually improve due to policy support and proactive adjustments by manufacturers, while overseas markets are entering a period of interest rate cuts, leading to positive revenue and profit outlooks [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Haier achieved revenue of 135.623 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.03%, with a net profit of 10.420 billion yuan, up 16.26% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 10.161 billion yuan, an increase of 18.09% year-on-year [3][10] - The gross margin improved by 0.17 percentage points in H1 2024, benefiting from digitalization and global supply chain collaboration [10][14] - The company’s Q2 net profit margin increased by 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting ongoing improvements in profitability [10][14] Market Dynamics - Domestic sales faced challenges, with H1 domestic revenue growing by 2.3%. However, the company’s overseas revenue increased by 3.7%, with notable growth in Europe [10][11] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic appliance replacement cycle driven by local policies, and its strong brand presence in overseas markets is expected to support continued growth [11][12] Future Outlook - The forecast for 2024 and 2025 indicates net profits of 18.920 billion yuan and 21.542 billion yuan, respectively, with current P/E ratios of 12.0 and 10.5 times [11][12] - The long-term strategy focuses on cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and high-end product offerings, which are expected to drive sustained profit margin improvements [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's revenue is under pressure due to a decline in real estate completions and a weak consumer environment. The company is actively promoting the growth of its sub-brands targeting mass consumption. However, the increase in low-margin sub-brands has led to a decline in overall profitability. Future demand in the kitchen appliance sector may be stimulated by the implementation of the old-for-new policy, and the company has a notable cash dividend payout ratio of 62% [3][10][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.729 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 759 million, down 8.48% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 658 million, down 11.91% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 2.492 billion, a decline of 9.63%, with a net profit of 361 million, down 18.15% year-on-year [10][16]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue decline was attributed to a drop in real estate completions and a weak consumption environment. Traditional categories like range hoods and gas stoves saw relatively stable revenues, with declines of 3% and 1% respectively. In contrast, optional categories faced greater pressure. The sub-brand targeting mass consumption saw a revenue increase of 40% year-on-year [10][15]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.1 percentage points in H1 and 2.4 percentage points in Q2, primarily due to the increased revenue share from lower-margin sub-brands. The company managed to control marketing expenses, but the decline in revenue led to an increase in management and R&D expense ratios [10][16]. Dividend Policy and Future Outlook - The company maintained a high dividend payout, distributing 472 million in cash dividends, which accounted for 62% of H1 net profit. The implementation of the old-for-new policy is expected to boost demand in the kitchen appliance sector, benefiting the company's operations. The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 2% in 2024, followed by 8% in 2025 and 2026 [10][11][16].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|社会服务（2146） 完善市内免税店政策，行业迎健康有序 发展 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 8 月 27 日，财政部、商务部、文化和旅游部、海关总署、税务总局印发《关于完善市内免税 店政策的通知》，明确自 2024 年 10 月 1 日起，按照《市内免税店管理暂行办法》规范市内免 税店管理工作，促进市内免税店健康有序发展。 |分析师及联系人 邓文慧 曹晶 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590523080001 社会服务 完善市内免税店政策，行业迎健康有序发展 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 社会服务 沪深300 -40% -23% -7% 10% 2023/8 2023/12 2024/4 2024/8 相关报告 1、《社会服务：24Q2 商社板块环比减仓，建 议关注强α龙头》2024.07.25 2、《社会服务：国内游消费稳中有增，入出 境保持快速增长》2024.06.13 扫码查看更多 行业事件 8 月 27 日，财政部、商务部、文化和旅游部、海关总署、税务总局印发《关于完 善市内免税店政 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|物流（214208） 跨境空运淡季不淡，旺季表现值得期待 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 受益于国内跨境电商平台出海需求带动和行业运力供给约束，跨境空运供需将持续保持紧平 衡状态。同时发运人新合同的长协比例持续提高，提前锁定旺季运力，或将导致旺季空运即期 市场运力进一步紧缺，运价有望超预期上涨。我们继续看好跨境空运行业景气向上，建议关注 掌握核心空运运力资源的龙头企业。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522120002 李蔚 李天琛 物流 跨境空运淡季不淡，旺季表现值得期待 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 物流 沪深300 -30% -17% -3% 10% 2023/8 2023/12 2024/4 2024/8 相关报告 1、《物流：快递行业 7 月数据解读：件量重 回高增，淡季价格有所承压》2024.08.25 2、《物流：快递行业 6 月数据解读：电商促 销前置导致 6 月件量增速放缓》2024.07.29 扫码查看更多 货量淡季不淡，运价同比提高 跨境空运淡季不淡，行业景 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|物流（214208） 跨境空运淡季不淡，旺季表现值得期待 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 受益于国内跨境电商平台出海需求带动和行业运力供给约束，跨境空运供需将持续保持紧平 衡状态。同时发运人新合同的长协比例持续提高，提前锁定旺季运力，或将导致旺季空运即期 市场运力进一步紧缺，运价有望超预期上涨。我们继续看好跨境空运行业景气向上，建议关注 掌握核心空运运力资源的龙头企业。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522120002 李蔚 李天琛 物流 跨境空运淡季不淡，旺季表现值得期待 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 物流 沪深300 -30% -17% -3% 10% 2023/8 2023/12 2024/4 2024/8 相关报告 1、《物流：快递行业 7 月数据解读：件量重 回高增，淡季价格有所承压》2024.08.25 2、《物流：快递行业 6 月数据解读：电商促 销前置导致 6 月件量增速放缓》2024.07.29 扫码查看更多 货量淡季不淡，运价同比提高 跨境空运淡季不淡，行业景 ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7][12] Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration issued a notice on August 27, 2024, to improve the management of city duty-free shops, effective from October 1, 2024, promoting healthy and orderly development of the industry [11][12] - The new policy aims to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic duty-free market and capture domestic consumers' spending that would otherwise go overseas, especially in the context of weak domestic consumption and the recovery of inbound and outbound traveler volumes to near 2019 levels [12] Summary by Sections Policy Improvement - The new city duty-free shop policy allows travelers with valid exit documents within 60 days to purchase a variety of goods, including food, clothing, accessories, and electronics, without a sales limit, although there are restrictions on duty-free allowances upon entry [12] - The policy encourages the sale of domestic products and sets the pickup of purchased items at the exit quarantine area, requiring travelers to carry items out in one go [12] Market Structure - The policy directly applies to six city duty-free shops operated by China Duty Free Group (CDFG) in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, with additional shops planned in cities such as Guangzhou and Chengdu [12] - CDFG remains the primary operator in the duty-free market, with a total of 22 cities involved in the new policy [12] Investment Focus - The report suggests focusing on China Duty Free Group as the main beneficiary of the new policy, which is expected to boost market confidence and attract consumer spending back to domestic markets [12] - Additionally, attention is recommended for other duty-free operators like Wangfujing [12]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|安徽合力（600761） 2024 年半年报点评： 营收小幅增长，盈利能力稳健增长 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月28日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年国内宏观环境景气度不及预期，叉车下游需求减弱。海外叉车锂电化率较低，随着锂 电渗透率增加，海外需求仍有望保持较高景气度。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营收分别为 187.2/202.6/219.2 亿元，归母净利润分别为 15.7/18.5/21.6 亿元，CAGR 为 19.07%。EPS 分 别为 1.76/2.08/2.42 元/股,考虑到国内制造业景气度有望逐步回暖；电动化产品带来公司海 外业务新需求，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 田伊依 SAC：S0590524070001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月28日 安徽合力(600761) 2024 年半年报点评： 营收小幅增长，盈利能力稳健增长 | --- | --- | |------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|恒立液压（601100） 2024 年半年报点评： 2024Q2 营收及归母净利润增速均转正 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年公司挖机相关液压产品的可能仍承压，但公司下游非挖领域多元化产品有望贡献新增 量。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营收分别为 99.25/114.61/131.52 亿元，归母净利润分别为 26.98/32.45/38.34 亿元，CAGR 为 15.34%。EPS 分别为 2.01/2.42/2.86 元/股,考虑到国内工 厂机械行业景气度有望逐步回暖；多元化产品带来公司海外业务新需求，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 田伊依 SAC：S0590524070001 恒立液压(601100) 2024 年半年报点评： 2024Q2 营收及归母净利润增速均转正 | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------------------| | 行 业： | 机械设备/工程机械 | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 46.48 元 | | 基本数据 ...