Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive outlook for the HDI industry, driven by expanding application fields and rapid growth in AI computing power and automotive intelligence [1][3] Core Viewpoints - The HDI industry is experiencing significant growth due to increasing demand from AI servers and automotive intelligence, leading to accelerated product specification upgrades [1][3] - Mainland Chinese companies are enhancing their technological capabilities and expanding production capacity to capitalize on the demand surge [2] - High-end HDI products are growing faster due to their ability to integrate more functions and performance within limited space, which requires more complex manufacturing processes [7] Industry Overview - The global HDI market accounts for approximately 16% of the total PCB market [7] - HDI products are categorized based on lamination and laser drilling processes, including 1-step HDI, 2-step HDI, 3-step HDI, 4-step and above HDI, AnyLayer HDI, and SLP [7] - High-end HDI faces greater challenges in interlayer alignment accuracy and the complexity of blind and buried via fabrication [7] Demand Drivers - AI servers are driving demand for high-end HDI due to requirements for high-frequency signal transmission, high chip integration, complex interconnect structures, and efficient heat dissipation [3] - NVIDIA's AI computing chips, from A100 to H100 and GB200, have significantly increased in area, connection methods, bandwidth, and memory capacity, leading to higher HDI usage [3] - Automotive intelligence is boosting HDI demand, particularly for applications in autonomous driving systems, driver assistance devices, in-car radar, and entertainment systems [3] - Automotive HDI is transitioning from 2-step/3-step to 4-step and above to meet the needs of complex sensors and controllers [3] Supply Landscape - The HDI market is currently dominated by European, American, and Taiwanese manufacturers, with global leaders including AT&S, Unimicron, Zhen Ding Technology, and TTM [2] - Mainland Chinese companies such as Shenghong Technology, Wus Printed Circuit, Shennan Circuits, Shengyi Electronics, Founder Technology, Kingboard Laminates, Shijiazhuang Sier Electronics, and Avary Holding are actively expanding their presence in the HDI market [2] - Shengyi Technology is collaborating with international clients in the high-frequency, high-speed, ultra-low-loss CCL segment for AI server HDI [2] Technological Advancements - High-end HDI products require more lamination, copper reduction, and laser drilling processes, significantly increasing production capacity utilization [7] - The complexity of manufacturing high-end HDI is driving the need for advanced technological capabilities and production capacity expansion [7]

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points aligns with expectations, but the forecast for rate cuts in 2025 has been reduced to two instances, indicating a more hawkish stance[28] - The decline in short-term interest rates is seen as a positive for technology consumption, while the uncertainty surrounding long-term rate cuts may disrupt market stability[5][7] Market Trends - The U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds have strengthened, leading to a drop in gold prices and a decline in U.S. stock markets, consistent with previous reports indicating concerns over long-term rate cuts[5] - The 30-year Treasury yield has decreased by 9.04 basis points to 1.9526%, reflecting a broader trend of declining yields across various maturities[12] Investment Strategies - Emphasis on sectors with lower selling pressure, particularly in electronics and communications, is recommended as these industries are expected to perform better in the current market environment[13] - The report suggests a gradual buying strategy in real estate, as monthly sales area and amount have shown year-on-year growth, supported by rapidly declining interest rates[15] Economic Indicators - The report highlights that the inflation issue in the U.S. is becoming more structural, necessitating fiscal cooperation for effective management, which may weaken the Federal Reserve's influence[16] - The political bureau's recent statements are expected to support market sentiment and liquidity, with a focus on individual stocks and themes for the upcoming year-end rally[17] Sector Recommendations - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, making it a favorable investment area[29] - The report advises focusing on resilient companies with growth potential in cyclical industries, particularly those benefiting from domestic demand policies and supply-side opportunities[30]

投资主线一（优质成长）：新赛道、新品类、新渠道共振，铸就优质成长股。需求升级驱动品类持续裂变，并从功能 属性走向情感属性，情绪消费崛起，新渠道快速迭代，与新品类共振，实现高速增长，重点关注：零食、化妆品、宠 物经济。 01 语参阅附注免费声明 50 0 经济转型升级迈向高质量发展：中国经济从高速增长进入高质量增长，实现新旧增长动能转换，消费成为经济增长的 稳定器和压舱石， 2023年中国最终消费支出占GDP比重达到56% ；从人口结构角度，人口是消费的基石，我国人口 基数大、劳动力资源丰富，消费市场依然具备增长潜力。 风险提示：消费行业内卷和市场竞争加剧的风险；促消费政策落地效果不及预期的风险；全球经济疲弱对中国消费市 场形成拖累的风险。 4 消费成为经济增长的稳定器和压舱石，2023年中国最终消费支出占GDP比重达到56%（居民消费39%+政府消费17%）。消费、投 资、出口是GDP增长三驾马车，在构建"以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环"的新发展格局中，消费市场的重要性逐步提升。 20 01 2025年消费行业投资策略 1 国泰君安证券 数据来源：世界银行，国泰君安证券研究 图: 中国主力消费人口占比高于 ...

二代制冷剂：配额如期削减，价格或见弹性。供给端：根据生态环境部公告，2025年度我国HCFCS生产和使用 量分别削减基线值的67.5%和73.2%。与2024年比，2025年主流品种R22/R141b/R142b生产配额削减 3.28/1.19/0.60万吨，内用配额削减3.10/0.74/0.46万吨。其中巨化股份/东岳集团R22配额为3.89万 吨/4.39万吨，配额份额靠前。需求端：R22既是性能优异的终端氟制冷剂，又是有机氟化工的重要原料，用于生 产新型氟致冷剂和含氟聚合物，目前制冷剂终端的应用主要集中的维修市场和定频空调的新增市场，存量需求稳 定。我们认为：在供给紧缩，需求相对稳定的条件下，R22长期供需趋紧下，涨价或能看到弹性。 风险提示：制冷剂需求不及预期，成本端价格波动，配额政策松动，四代制冷剂等替代品进展较快。 更多国君研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 空调产销排产保持高增长，制冷剂价格保持涨势。产业在线监测数据显示，2024年11月家用空调生产1671.0万 台，同比增长55.7%；销售1538.2万台，同比增长44.2%。其中内销673.2万台，同比增长28.7%；出口 865 ...

Economic Outlook - Powell expresses optimism about the overall strength of the U.S. economy, noting resilient consumer spending despite weak real estate activity[1] - Unemployment rate remains low, although there has been a slight increase[1] Inflation and Interest Rates - Long-term inflation expectations are stubborn, with geopolitical risks hindering inflation reduction efforts[1] - The Fed's recent decision to lower rates by 25 basis points aligns with expectations, but forward guidance for 2025 has been notably downgraded, leading to market volatility[4] - Inflation forecasts for PCE have been revised upward for 2024 and 2025, with 2024 PCE expected at 2.4% and core PCE at 2.8%[4] Market Reactions - The Fed's hawkish stance on future rate cuts has resulted in a short-term decline in both U.S. stocks and bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% and major stock indices dropping by approximately 3%[4] - The expectation for two rate cuts in 2025 is concentrated in the first half of the year, with potential cuts in March and June[8] Risks and Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding the new government's trade policies, particularly tariffs, poses risks to inflation dynamics and economic forecasts[1][9] - The potential for a "soft landing" in the U.S. economy is anticipated, with CPI inflation expected to range between 2.1% and 3.0% throughout 2025[8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the commercial aerospace industry, particularly for companies like Zhongke Xingtou and Aerospace Hongtu, which are expanding their presence in the entire industrial chain of commercial aerospace [2]. Core Insights - The aerospace industry is characterized as a technology-intensive sector with high demands for innovation and research and development. The report highlights the need for advancements in data processing and analysis capabilities to effectively utilize the vast amounts of space data generated [2]. - Zhongke Xingtou is actively pursuing a "4+2" plan to build a comprehensive commercial aerospace industrial chain, which includes the development of various satellite constellations and a global measurement and control network [2]. - Aerospace Hongtu has launched its own satellite constellation to address the scarcity of radar data sources for remote sensing, enhancing its capabilities in high-precision mapping and monitoring [6]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Characteristics**: The aerospace industry is marked by a high volume of satellites, diverse payload types, and significant data generation, which necessitates improved data handling and processing solutions [2]. - **Company Strategies**: Zhongke Xingtou is focusing on a full industrial chain layout, including satellite manufacturing, rocket operations, and data services, to strengthen its market position [2]. Aerospace Hongtu is also expanding its operations from downstream to upstream within the aerospace information industry [6]. - **Technological Developments**: The report emphasizes the importance of developing high-precision commercial radar remote sensing satellite constellations to support traditional industries' digital transformation [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the HDI industry, driven by the expansion of application fields and the increasing demand for high-level HDI products due to advancements in AI computing power and automotive intelligence [1][4]. Core Insights - The demand for HDI is rapidly increasing due to AI computing and automotive intelligence, leading to significant growth in high-level HDI applications [4]. - Domestic companies in China are enhancing their technical capabilities and expanding production capacity, positioning themselves to capitalize on the surging demand in the HDI market [2][7]. - The global HDI market is dominated by companies from Europe, the United States, and Taiwan, but Chinese firms are actively entering the market with significant investments and partnerships [2][4]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - Chinese companies are improving their technical strength and production capacity, allowing them to grow rapidly during the demand surge in the HDI market [2]. - Major global HDI manufacturers include AT&S, Huazhong, Xinxing, and TTM, while Chinese companies like Shenghong Technology, Huidian Co., and others are making significant strides in the HDI sector [2]. Demand Side - The demand for HDI is driven by the need for high-frequency, high-speed signal transmission in AI servers, which require more advanced PCB specifications [4]. - The automotive sector is also a key driver, as HDI offers advantages in miniaturization and high density, making it suitable for advanced driver-assistance systems and in-vehicle entertainment systems [4][7]. Market Dynamics - The global HDI market accounts for approximately 16% of the total PCB market, with high-level HDI experiencing faster growth due to increasing circuit density and the need for higher functionality in limited space [7]. - The complexity of manufacturing high-level HDI, including challenges in inter-layer alignment and the intricacies of blind and buried vias, is increasing, necessitating more advanced production capabilities [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the seed industry, emphasizing the importance of seeds in ensuring food security and the potential for growth in genetically modified corn cultivation [1]. Core Insights - The seed industry is undergoing a transformation with the accelerated application of new biotechnological breeding techniques, which is expected to enhance the competitive landscape [1]. - The performance of seed varieties is a key indicator of a seed company's core competitiveness, relying on high-quality genetic resources and advanced agricultural technologies [1]. - Companies with strong variety competitiveness and technological reserves are likely to benefit from the application of genetically modified technologies, leading to further improvements in the industry structure [1]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Overview**: The report highlights the critical role of seeds in food security and the ongoing advancements in biotechnological breeding techniques that are reshaping the industry [1]. - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is expected to improve as the adoption of genetically modified crops increases, with a focus on companies that excel in variety performance and technological innovation [1]. - **Policy Context**: December is noted as a key period for planting policies, with an emphasis on enhancing food self-sufficiency and the revitalization of the seed industry as a core focus [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the infrastructure sector, with a recommendation for undervalued construction central enterprises [6]. Core Insights - The overall economic operation is stable with progress, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand to promote sustained economic recovery [4]. - In November, the total retail sales increased by 3.0% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment grew by 2.9%, marking a shift from decline to growth [1]. - The broad infrastructure investment rose by 9.7% year-on-year, although it saw a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. - Real estate investment showed a narrowing decline, with sales area increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - In November, the industrial added value grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with the urban surveyed unemployment rate remaining stable at 5.0% [1]. - The new social financing scale was 23,357 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1,197 billion yuan [1]. Infrastructure Investment - Broad infrastructure investment increased by 9.7% year-on-year, while narrow infrastructure investment grew by 3.3%, reflecting a mixed performance [2]. - Water conservancy investment surged by 69.4% year-on-year, although it decreased by 24.8% month-on-month [2]. Real Estate Sector - The new construction area fell by 26.5% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed compared to October [3]. - The sales prices of commercial residential properties in major cities showed a narrowing decline for the first time since 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on improving the investment value of state-owned enterprises through various measures, including mergers and acquisitions, stock buybacks, and enhanced cash dividends [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the importance of market performance for central enterprises and will incorporate market value management into performance assessments [3]. - There is a strong push for companies to address long-term undervaluation issues and to implement plans for valuation enhancement [1][4]. - The report highlights the need for a sustainable profit distribution policy to increase the stability and predictability of cash dividends [1]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Value Management - SASAC will strengthen guidance on market value management and include it in the performance evaluation of central enterprise leaders [1]. - Companies are encouraged to adopt stock buybacks and increases as a long-term foundational work [1]. Section 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - The report advocates for mergers and acquisitions that enhance core competitiveness and promote industrial upgrades [2]. - Focus on integrating high-quality assets within the supply chain to create industry leaders [2]. Section 3: Stock Performance - Notable stock price increases were observed for several companies following announcements related to market value management, with significant five-day price changes reported [3]. - Specific companies such as China National Chemical Corporation and China Railway Construction Corporation showed substantial stock price movements [3]. Section 4: Financial Metrics - The report provides price-to-book (PB) ratios and dividend yields for various state-owned enterprises, indicating their financial health and attractiveness to investors [1][2].