Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the satellite internet and commercial space industry, highlighting a high demand and favorable trends in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The successful launch of the low Earth orbit satellite group marks a significant step in the construction of the national satellite constellation, with plans to deploy approximately 12,992 satellites by 2035 [1]. - The Long March 5B rocket, which has the highest payload capacity among China's active rockets, successfully completed its first multi-satellite launch, showcasing advancements in China's space capabilities [2]. - The development of the Wenchang space industry is being supported by government initiatives, leading to a robust industrial ecosystem that includes rocket, satellite, and data chains [2]. Summary by Sections Satellite Internet Development - The successful launch of the low Earth orbit satellite group accelerates the construction of the national satellite constellation, with a plan to launch around 1,300 satellites in the next five years [1]. - The first batch of satellites is designed to provide broadband communication and internet access services [1]. Rocket and Launch Capabilities - The Long March 5B rocket has a takeoff thrust exceeding 1,000 tons and a near-Earth orbit payload capacity of 25 tons, making it a key asset for future launches [2]. - The YF-50D engines installed on the Far Expedition II upper stage enhance its capability for high-orbit multi-satellite direct insertion tasks [2]. Industry Ecosystem - The Wenchang space industry is evolving into a comprehensive system with a focus on collaboration between rocket, satellite, and data sectors, supported by government planning [2]. - The report emphasizes the high demand and positive outlook for the satellite and commercial rocket industries, indicating a trend towards reduced launch costs and accelerated development in the satellite internet sector [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the satellite internet industry, driven by the successful launch of the Qianfan 03 satellite and the ongoing development of the G60 satellite constellation [1][2]. Core Insights - The Qianfan 03 satellite launch marks a significant milestone in China's satellite internet initiative, with plans to deploy a total of 1.5 million low Earth orbit satellites by 2030 to provide global internet coverage [1]. - The global commercial space market is projected to reach approximately $400 billion in 2023, with the satellite internet sector accounting for 71% of this market, valued at $285 billion [2]. - The Long March 6A rocket has entered a high-density launch phase, optimizing its operations to meet the increasing demand for satellite launches [2]. Summary by Sections Satellite Launch and Development - The Qianfan 03 satellite is part of the first generation of satellites, with a total of 18 low Earth orbit broadband internet satellites launched [1]. - The Qianfan satellite constellation aims to complete the launch of 108 satellites by 2024, 648 by the end of 2025, and 1,296 by the end of 2027 [1]. Market Potential - The satellite internet industry is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing satellite launch plans, with a substantial market size projected for the coming years [2]. - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the satellite internet-related industrial chain as launch plans materialize [2].

Economic Indicators - Industrial added value in November increased by 5.4% year-on-year, slightly up from 5.3% in the previous month, indicating strong production possibly driven by export demand[1] - Fixed asset investment in November grew by 3.4% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, but showed seasonal strength[1] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment showed weaker seasonal performance, while investments in textiles, automobiles, and general equipment strengthened, aligning with industrial added value trends[1] - Real estate investment saw a reduced year-on-year decline, supported by policies like lower mortgage rates, although new construction and completion rates still declined compared to the previous month[1] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in November did not surpass the nominal growth rate established since 2021, with significant increases in home appliances (22.2%) and automobiles (6.6%) due to trade-in policies[2] - The cosmetics sector experienced a sharp decline of 26.4%, reflecting consumption shifts caused by the timing of the Double Eleven shopping festival[2] Future Outlook - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2024 is expected to exceed 5%, driven by high growth rates in industrial and service sectors, indicating a potential to meet the annual economic target of around 5%[2] - The recovery of demand and moderate price increases will depend on the effectiveness of incremental policy measures[3] Risks - There are risks associated with the recovery of internal economic momentum being weaker than expected and potential escalation in US-China trade tensions[4]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The Politburo meeting's rare statements support market sentiment and stock market liquidity, indicating a phase of market stability with potential for a year-end rebound focused on individual stocks and themes[4] - A decline in risk-free interest rates is anticipated, with a positive outlook on technology and consumer sectors[4] Group 2: Commodity and Sector Insights - U.S. inflation shows stickiness, limiting interest rate cuts in 2025, while domestic demand expectations are bolstered by significant policy signals from key meetings[8] - Coal prices are expected to bottom out between 750-770 RMB/ton by late March to early April 2025, with investment strategies shifting towards stable dividend leaders in the coal sector[9] - The steel sector remains at a bottom level, with expectations for improved industry demand and supply dynamics, maintaining an "overweight" rating[25] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market[18] - The December Politburo meeting continues the policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," highlighting the importance of expanding domestic demand[28]

Economic Policy - The central government emphasizes "expanding domestic demand" as the top priority, setting a proactive tone for the upcoming economic meetings[5] - Fiscal policy aims to "increase the deficit rate" and issue special bonds, while monetary policy suggests "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts"[6] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize with continued efforts to support it, alongside potential new birth policies[9] Market Trends - The combination of a "strong dollar" and "low dollar interest rates" indicates investor confidence in the next U.S. government's execution capabilities, but this may face resistance over time[10][11] - The "China factor" is emerging as a new variable in the market, potentially replacing the current dynamics if the dollar's strength and interest rates are questioned[14] Investment Strategy - The downward trend of domestic risk-free interest rates is more certain compared to overseas, with expectations of continued capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks[20] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to slow in the first half of 2024, but if local debt approval powers are decentralized, the issuance pace may accelerate[25] IPO Market - The IPO market is anticipated to undergo reforms aimed at high-quality development, with new regulations expected to enhance listing standards and strengthen delisting requirements[29][30] - The expected issuance pace of new stocks in 2024 is at a historically low level, with a projected annual return of approximately 3.32% for A-class accounts[34] Sector Performance - The financial sector is expected to shift from a focus on dividends to recovery themes by 2025, with overall valuations anticipated to rise[38] - The energy sector is likely to benefit from improving demand and supply dynamics, particularly in the steel and new energy segments[46][48]

Content: --------- <doc id='26'>【金工】多视角打造事件驱动策略库 随着经济结构转型，传统依靠盈利增长进行选股的模式难度加大，偏股混合基金指数超额收益面临衰退，而事件 驱动策略的定价逻辑清晰可以作为机构选股方法的重要补充。 主营产品涨价选股策略：冷门股由于关注度低常存在反应不足的特点，跟踪400种产品现货价格和相应的1300家 上市公司股价，当产品价格上涨而股价未有显著变化时，买入相应个股的性价比较高。</doc> <doc id='27'>平稳创新高选股选股策略：根据对股市微观结构的研究，成交量平稳且上行延续性较好的股票其价格上涨更加稳 定。通过对个股涨幅、上涨平稳性、量比等条件的定量刻画筛选出符合条件的个股，可作为趋势交易策略的参 考。 指数成分股调整套利策略：随着被动投资理念的普及和股票ETF规模增长，当指数成分股发生调整时，被动资金加 仓有望驱动股票价格上涨，通过预测调入成分股并且提前布局可以实现套利收益。基于日历效应的选股策略：不 同行业板块的盈利存在淡旺季，会引发投资者关注度的季节性变化，而关注度提升容易带来增量资金，使得股价 产生日历效应。但是策略并非对收益率时间序列的简单统计，而应该结合关注度等指标进行综合选股。 盈利超预期策略：盈余公告后价格漂移现象在A股较为显著，通过上市公司财报、分析师预测行为变化定义业绩超 预期信号，从而筛选出符合条件的个股。入通选股策略：南下资金规模近些年持续增长，当新股首次入港股通后 有望获得南下资金的加仓，进一步对个股盈利模式以及与A股上市公司差异性比较，可筛选出容易被内资关注的个 股。</doc> <doc id='28'>风险提示：本报告结论完全基于公开的历史数据进行计算，不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。股市系统性风险 发生使得各类规律失效。宏观和产业政策超预期改变市场交易环境。报告中的模拟组合构建在实际投资中难以完 全复制，主要是证明方法论的有效性。本报告所涉及个股案例仅用来证明量化选股方法的有效性，而不构成个股 推荐。</doc> <doc id='29'>>>以上内容节选自国泰君安证券已经发布的研究报告：多视角打造事件驱动策略库，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等）请详见完整版报告。</doc> --------- Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Main Product Price Increase Stock Selection Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Focus on stocks with low attention that often have insufficient reactions to price changes[26] - **Construction Process**: Track the spot prices of 400 products and the stock prices of 1300 listed companies. When the product price rises but the stock price has not changed significantly, buy the corresponding stocks[26] - **Evaluation**: High cost-effectiveness due to low attention and insufficient reaction[26] Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Stocks with stable trading volume and continuous upward trend have more stable price increases[27] - **Construction Process**: Quantitatively describe conditions such as stock price increase, stability of price increase, and volume ratio to screen out eligible stocks[27] - **Evaluation**: Can be used as a reference for trend trading strategies[27] Model Name: Index Component Stock Adjustment Arbitrage Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Passive funds increase positions when index component stocks are adjusted, driving stock prices up[27] - **Construction Process**: Predict the stocks to be included in the index components and layout in advance to achieve arbitrage returns[27] - **Evaluation**: Beneficial due to the growth of stock ETFs and the popularity of passive investment concepts[27] Model Name: Calendar Effect Stock Selection Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Different industry sectors have seasonal changes in profitability, leading to seasonal changes in investor attention[27] - **Construction Process**: Combine attention indicators to comprehensively select stocks, rather than simply statistically analyzing the time series of returns[27] - **Evaluation**: Takes advantage of seasonal changes in investor attention to bring incremental funds[27] Model Name: Earnings Surprise Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Price drift phenomenon after earnings announcements is significant in A-shares[27] - **Construction Process**: Define earnings surprise signals through changes in company financial reports and analyst forecast behavior to screen out eligible stocks[27] - **Evaluation**: Effective in capturing price drift phenomenon after earnings announcements[27] Model Name: Southbound Stock Selection Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Southbound funds have been growing in recent years, and new stocks entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect are likely to receive increased positions from southbound funds[27] - **Construction Process**: Compare the profitability model of individual stocks and the differences with A-share listed companies to screen out stocks that are likely to be noticed by domestic investors[27] - **Evaluation**: Beneficial due to the continuous growth of southbound funds[27] Model Backtest Results - **Main Product Price Increase Stock Selection Strategy**: No specific test results provided[26] - **Stable New High Stock Selection Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27] - **Index Component Stock Adjustment Arbitrage Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27] - **Calendar Effect Stock Selection Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27] - **Earnings Surprise Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27] - **Southbound Stock Selection Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27]

事件：中央经济工作会议12月11日至12日在北京举行。会议上强调了"人工智能+"行动为明年的重点任务。 会议明确 "开展'人工智能+'行动"为明年重点任务。会议对明年重点任务的提法第二条指出，"以科技创新引领新质 生产力发展，建设现代化产业体系。加强基础研究和关键核心技术攻关，超前布局重大科技项目，开展新技术新产品 新场景大规模应用示范行动。开展"人工智能+"行动，培育未来产业"，明确了AI产业发展的重要性。 国内互联网公司和创业公司的大模型产品持续进步，在用户积累、垂类开发、模态更新方面有初步成绩。经过一年多 的发展，国内的大模型在功能上不断改进、成绩不断提升。如字节"豆包"APP的11月国内月活已经接近6000万人， 百度"文小言"、月之暗面"Kimi智能助手"也均有超过1000万月活，腾讯的"元宝"更新到了2.0版本，整合了微信公众 号、视频号、QQ音乐等特色信息资源；垂类方面，minimax的AI情感陪伴应用"talkie"位列11月出海榜榜首，月活 达到2500万，作业帮"QuestionAI"、字节的"Gauth"作为AI教育的垂类应用，也分别有1051万862万月活用户； 多模态方面，腾讯"混元 ...

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for the aluminum, copper, lithium, and rare earth industries, highlighting strong demand and supply constraints as key factors driving investment opportunities [1][2]. Core Insights - The aluminum industry is experiencing a shift in pricing mechanisms due to increased resource constraints and higher upstream concentration, leading to improved profitability for alumina and bauxite in 2024, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be compressed [1]. - The copper market is characterized by a tight supply situation despite an anticipated increase in copper mine output, with demand driven by significant investments in power infrastructure, leading to a balanced yet constrained market [1]. - The lithium market is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices as supply clears, with strong demand from downstream sectors potentially leading to significant price elasticity for companies with their own mining operations [2]. - The rare earth market is projected to benefit from sustained demand driven by electric vehicles and wind energy, with new equipment updates expected to further boost demand starting in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Aluminum - The report notes that domestic mining resources are becoming increasingly scarce due to stricter environmental policies and mining duration, which enhances the bargaining power of resource suppliers [1]. - The profitability of alumina and bauxite is expected to increase significantly in 2024, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum will face compression due to changing pricing mechanisms [1]. Copper - Despite a planned increase of 800,000 tons in copper mine output by 2025, actual increments may fall short due to operational disruptions and aging mines [1]. - The demand for refined copper is expected to remain robust, with a projected growth rate of nearly 3% in electricity demand driven by increased investments from state-owned power companies [1]. Lithium - The market consensus suggests that low prices will gradually clear supply, with a strong demand outlook leading to optimism about future price increases [2]. - Companies with their own mining operations are positioned to benefit from lower costs and greater price elasticity in the next demand cycle [2]. Rare Earth - The report anticipates that demand for rare earth elements will remain strong due to increasing consumption in electric vehicles and wind energy, countering previous expectations of a slowdown [2]. - The orderly supply situation in China and slow overseas production increases will continue to constrain supply, supporting price stability [2].

Industry Investment Rating - The public utilities sector is currently at historically low absolute valuations [1] Core Views - The government's priority for the power industry has shifted from "reducing electricity prices" to "ensuring supply security" and "low-carbon transition" [2] - Power companies need to ensure reasonable expected returns for thermal power projects to stimulate investment enthusiasm [2] - Increased capital expenditure on new energy is required to meet clean and low-carbon transition needs [2] - The power system reform is progressing, with new energy market entry accelerating and time-of-use pricing mechanisms being introduced in some provinces [3] - Thermal power is gradually transitioning from base-load power to regulating power due to the development of new energy [3] Investment Opportunities Thermal Power - Three non-cyclical factors (capacity electricity price support, reduced financing costs, long-term coal cost locking) are driving the weakening of industry cyclicality [4] - Overall profitability stability of thermal power has improved, but regional profit differentiation exists [4] Hydropower - High-quality large hydropower projects are recommended for reverse layout, regardless of water inflow pressure [4] Nuclear Power - Long-term implied return rates are worth attention [4] Wind and Solar Power - High-quality stocks with excellent locations and high wind power ratios should be selected [4] Gas - Focus on the improvement trend of free cash flow and the enhancement of dividend value [4]

Investment Recommendation - Overweight recommendation: Focus on companies with upward product momentum and high growth elasticity, strong brand momentum leaders, and those expected to bottom out and potentially rebound [1] Industry Trends - Post-2022 consumption pressure and 2023 consumer destocking, the beauty and personal care industry saw a recovery in 2024 with normalized purchasing cycles and improved industry sentiment, evidenced by double-digit growth in online beauty sales during the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival [2] - Intensified competition post-channel红利消退, with platform traffic and price competition heating up, leading to further brand differentiation [2] - The rise of new domestic brands in beauty and personal care, with strong performance from leading domestic brands due to organizational efficiency in product innovation and channel operations [2] Structural Opportunities - Personal care transformation: Content e-commerce creates new environments for product launches and marketing, with brands strong in product innovation and operations likely to break through [3] - Affordable consumption: Continued trend of cost-effectiveness driven by supply-demand resonance, benefiting brands with strong supply chains and superior operations [3] - Emotional consumption: Emotional value drives demand for culture, style, and experience, benefiting domestic makeup and fragrance personal care [3] - Ingredient innovation: Recombinant collagen supply-side ingredients and category evolution catalyze demand expansion, maintaining high popularity [3] Key Companies - Anticipated significant recovery in market risk appetite by 2025, with the beauty and personal care sector benefiting from numerous changes and the overall rise of domestic brands, showing clear growth attributes [4] - Intensified brand differentiation at the fundamental level, recommending bottom-up selection of companies with product and channel changes and elasticity [4]