Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the real estate sector [2]. Core Insights - The recent tax policy adjustments by the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development are aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, reflecting a strong commitment to halt the decline [3][4]. - Key measures include increasing the housing transaction tax exemption area from 90 square meters to 140 square meters, and a unified reduction of the land value-added tax pre-collection rate by 0.5 percentage points [4]. - The adjustments are expected to lower purchasing and transaction costs, thereby stimulating demand and boosting real estate sales [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the policy's timing and frequency, indicating a proactive approach to market stabilization [4]. Summary by Sections Tax Policy Adjustments - The report highlights the introduction of several tax incentives for the real estate market, including adjustments to deed tax, value-added tax, and land value-added tax [3][4]. - The new policies are designed to effectively reduce costs for homebuyers, particularly benefiting those purchasing second homes in first-tier cities [4]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that asset consolidation and restructuring will become focal points in the near future, with a potential acceleration in domestic debt restructuring [4]. - It notes that the current demographic cycle will influence the industry, with resource integration expected to be a mainstream trend [4]. Company Performance Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies in the sector, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating based on their projected performance [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for local consumption due to the extended public holiday policy, which is expected to benefit sectors such as supermarkets, department stores, and restaurants [1][2]. Core Insights - The modification of the public holiday arrangement includes an increase of two days for statutory holidays, specifically New Year's Eve and May 2nd, which is anticipated to enhance local consumption and travel [1][2]. - The comparison of holiday arrangements between 2024 and 2025 shows that the number of statutory holidays will increase from 11 days in 2024 to 13 days in 2025, with the potential for longer holiday periods through the use of annual leave [1][2]. - The report highlights that the new policy encourages the utilization of paid leave, which could lead to more extended holiday opportunities, positively impacting long-distance travel and outbound tourism demand [3]. Summary by Sections Holiday Arrangement Changes - The new holiday arrangement for 2024 includes 11 statutory holiday days and a potential for 32 days of consecutive holidays, while 2025 will have 13 statutory holiday days and 27 days of potential consecutive holidays [1][2]. Impact on Local Consumption - The increase in statutory holidays is expected to catalyze local consumption, particularly benefiting the restaurant, retail, and jewelry sectors [2]. Long Holiday Opportunities - The analysis of annual leave utilization indicates that in 2024, extended holidays can be achieved, such as 4 days during Qingming and 9 days during May Day, while in 2025, opportunities for extended holidays include 13 days during Spring Festival and 12 days during National Day [2][3].

Investment Rating - Recommended: Focus on retail types with high matching efficiency, channel brand recognition, and the ability to aggregate orders efficiently to achieve SKU scale effects [1] Core Views - The retail industry is evolving towards a model where demand creation and fulfillment are key, with a focus on matching efficiency and SKU scale effects [1] - The Chinese retail market is highly competitive, with a focus on capturing consumer wallet share and leveraging public supply chains and fulfillment systems [2] - The success of retail models in China will depend on the ability to adapt to local market conditions and maintain a long-term operational focus [3] Industry Analysis Retail Models and Efficiency - Retail models can be categorized into demand creation and demand fulfillment types, with the former focusing on matching efficiency and the latter on order aggregation and SKU scale effects [1] - The evolution of retail models is moving from single-store to single-customer unit economics, with a focus on reducing complexity to achieve growth [1] Competitive Landscape in China - The Chinese retail market is characterized by intense competition for consumer wallet share, with a focus on category dominance and scene-based fulfillment [2] - Online platforms are dominating in category share, while offline category killers are emerging, leading to a trend towards scale and low-price competition [2] Localization and Long-term Focus - The success of retail models in China will depend on the ability to adapt to local market conditions and maintain a long-term operational focus [3] - Traditional supermarkets face challenges due to complex interests and high operational costs, while internet companies struggle with unclear positioning and strategy [3] Future Trends - The future of retail in China will likely see the emergence of various discount retail formats, with different categories and target audiences, similar to Costco [3] - The combination of successful retail elements and adaptation to local conditions will be key to the success of future retail models in China [3]

Investment Rating - The report recommends the semiconductor self-controlled sector, emphasizing continued support for leading semiconductor manufacturers and companies related to photolithography and semiconductor equipment [1]. Core Insights - Advanced process foundry may tighten, highlighting the importance of enhancing semiconductor self-control capabilities and building a domestic production chain. TSMC is expected to suspend supplying all 7nm and more advanced chips to AI/GPU customers in mainland China, which may increase pressure on external foundries [1]. - SMIC, as the largest and most advanced wafer foundry in mainland China, is positioned to benefit from potential supply chain sanctions and increased demand for AI/GPU chip foundry services, leading to price elasticity under tight supply and demand conditions [1]. - The U.S. House of Representatives is inquiring about the sales situation of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies, which may impact the import of related equipment and slow down the short-term expansion of China's semiconductor industry [2]. - The top five equipment manufacturers hold approximately 60% of the global semiconductor equipment market share, with significant shares in critical equipment categories such as photolithography and etching [2]. Summary by Sections - **Semiconductor Manufacturing**: The report emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions [1]. - **Equipment Supply Chain**: The inquiry by the U.S. House of Representatives into the top equipment manufacturers could lead to delays in equipment imports, thereby affecting the domestic semiconductor manufacturing pace [2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report indicates that domestic equipment companies may see increased urgency for product validation from wafer fabs due to the scrutiny of foreign equipment suppliers [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests that if the import of 7nm and more advanced process chips is restricted, the development of high-end mobile phones and high-performance computing in China will be adversely affected [1][2]. Core Insights - The breakthrough in 7nm and more advanced process chips is primarily focused on: 1) Accelerating the upgrade and localization of front-end process equipment; 2) Speeding up the development of advanced packaging. These measures are expected to accelerate the domestic substitution process of semiconductor equipment, particularly benefiting the currently low localization rate segments such as measurement, ion implantation, coating and developing, etching, and deposition [1][2]. - TSMC plans to suspend the supply of 7nm and more advanced process chips to AI/GPU customers in mainland China starting November 11. This is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment, with bottleneck equipment likely to benefit significantly. Currently, the main foundries capable of mass production of 7nm process logic chips globally are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. The domestic production of 7nm and below process chips is constrained by equipment and process bottlenecks, which cannot meet domestic demand. If the export restrictions on 7nm and below process chips from non-American foundries like TSMC are implemented, there will be an increased supply-demand gap for these chips in China [2]. - Advanced packaging is expected to accelerate as another means to enhance chip performance. Driven by Moore's Law, chip performance improvement has increasingly relied on front-end process miniaturization, which has diminishing returns. Advanced packaging is becoming a method to surpass Moore's Law for chip performance enhancement. If the import of 7nm chips is restricted, domestic breakthroughs in front-end processes are expected to advance alongside the development of advanced packaging, facilitating the domestic breakthrough of 7nm and below process technology. Compared to traditional packaging, advanced packaging introduces new processes primarily based on front-end processes, with significant contributions from cleaning, CMP, bonding, etching, and thin-film deposition. Equipment in these areas is expected to benefit from the expansion of domestic advanced packaging [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the healthcare sector due to the implementation of the medical insurance prepayment system, which is expected to alleviate financial pressures on medical institutions and related enterprises [1][2]. Core Insights - The joint announcement by the National Healthcare Security Administration and the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the management of medical insurance prepayments, allowing eligible medical institutions to apply for prepayments annually, which will be based on the accumulated balance of the insurance fund and risk levels [1][2]. - The overall operation of the medical insurance fund in China is stable, with a reported income of 1,575.5 billion yuan (+4.0%) and expenditures of 1,382.9 billion yuan (+14.9%) from January to July 2024, resulting in a cumulative balance of 192.6 billion yuan by July [1]. - The prepayment system, previously piloted in regions like Hubei and Shaanxi, is now being refined at the national level, which is expected to ease the cash flow pressures faced by medical institutions and their associated supply chain enterprises [2]. Summary by Sections Medical Insurance Prepayment System - The new prepayment system allows eligible medical institutions to apply for prepayments, which will help manage their cash flow and operational pressures [1][2]. - The prepayment scale is expected to be around one month, contingent on the financial health of the insurance fund [1]. Financial Performance of Medical Institutions - The report highlights that the receivables growth rate for medical distribution companies is significantly higher than revenue growth, indicating financial strain [2]. - The implementation of the prepayment system is anticipated to mitigate the repayment pressures faced by these institutions, thereby improving their financial stability [2]. Impact on Drug Collection Policies - The report notes that the collection policies for drugs under centralized procurement are being enforced, with a maximum collection period of 30 days mandated by the government [3]. - The report indicates that various sectors are experiencing a trend where accounts receivable growth outpaces revenue growth, particularly in the chemical preparation and medical consumables sectors [3].

股 票 研 究 行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.14 ——2024 年 9 月财富管理业务月报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦 ( 分析师 ) | 王思玥 ( 研究助理 ) | 吴浩东 ( 分析师 | ) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38031024 | 010-83939780 | | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880123070151 | S0880524070001 | | 本报告导读： 20 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price raised to 23.06 CNY (+2.62) [4][6] Core Views - The company's cost optimization in 2024Q1-Q3 has significantly improved Q3 gross margin, and with continued cost control, the performance is expected to exceed expectations [1] - The company's revenue in 2024Q1-Q3 was 333 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of -0.38 million CNY, slightly worse than the previous year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 139 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 17.24%, and a net profit of 12 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.00% [4] - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 53.96%, a significant increase of 18.17 percentage points year-on-year, and the expense ratio for the first three quarters was 58.68%, a decrease of 4.90 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company has made strategic deployments in Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) since 2021, with products and solutions already in pilot applications in several banks, poised for rapid growth once PQC standards are released [4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 660, 561, 631, 738, and 868 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.9%, -14.9%, 12.4%, 17.0%, and 17.6% [3] - Net profit (attributable to parent company) for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be -9, 37, 63, 96, and 124 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -110.9%, 524.3%, 69.3%, 52.7%, and 29.4% [3] - EPS for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be -0.04, 0.16, 0.27, 0.40, and 0.52 CNY, respectively [3] - ROE for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be -0.6%, 2.6%, 4.3%, 6.3%, and 7.8%, respectively [3] - P/E ratios for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 94.76, 55.96, 36.66, and 28.33, respectively [3] Business Segments - Revenue from general security products is expected to grow by 10%, 17%, and 17% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [15] - Revenue from PKI infrastructure products is expected to grow by 12%, 15%, and 18% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [15] - Revenue from PKI security application products is expected to grow by 15%, 18%, and 18% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [15] Valuation - The company is valued at 57.0 times 2025E P/E, with a reasonable market value of 5.444 billion CNY [16] - Comparable companies in the cybersecurity industry have an average 2025E P/E of 55.30, with the company receiving a premium due to its leading position in the PKI sector [16][18]

Group 1: Real Estate and Consumer Sales - New housing sales in 30 major cities increased by 24.7% year-on-year, with first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities showing increases of 56.4%, 8.5%, and 32.5% respectively[9] - The retail sales of passenger cars in October rose by 11.3% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations, with inventory levels decreasing by 14.7% month-on-month[21] - The average price of live pigs nationwide decreased by 1.8% week-on-week, indicating weak demand in the pork market[16] Group 2: Construction and Manufacturing - Construction demand remains weak, with rebar prices showing a slight increase of 0.3% week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil prices decreased by 0.3%[10] - The operating rate for half-steel and full-steel tires decreased by 0.1% and 1.9% respectively, indicating a slowdown in automotive production[29] - The average price of float glass increased by 4.6% week-on-week, reflecting stable demand in the market[28] Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - The logistics freight index increased by 5.5% week-on-week, indicating improved logistics conditions[11] - The number of domestic flights increased by 1.5% week-on-week, while international flights decreased by 0.5%, recovering to 75% of the levels seen in 2019[11] Group 4: Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include prolonged high overseas interest rates and uncertainties in global geopolitics, which may impact market stability[11] - Continued monitoring of housing demand improvement and the implementation of real estate policies is essential for future market trends[16]

Group 1: Technological Innovations - The world's first hundred-channel million-pixel hyperspectral imaging device has been developed, improving light utilization from less than 25% to 74.8%[3] - A high-performance blue quantum dot liquid laser has been created, achieving a near 1 nanosecond exciton gain lifetime, significantly enhancing stability compared to traditional blue dye lasers[2] - A new type of dipole exciton was discovered in black phosphorus heterojunctions, exhibiting over 1% optical absorption at room temperature, which could advance infrared optoelectronic devices[1] Group 2: Biological Research Advances - A study revealed that the accumulation of immunoglobulin is a key feature and driving factor of inflammatory aging, identifying over 70 cell types involved in the aging process[16] - Research indicates that olfactory dysfunction is closely linked to 139 diseases, suggesting it could serve as an early warning signal for various neurological and physical conditions[15] - A new mechanism was discovered where a single protein can act as both a poison and an antidote, providing insights into selective cell killing in yeast[14] Group 3: Quantum and Physical Sciences - A breakthrough in understanding the mechanism of allergic reactions was achieved by revealing the dimerization structure of human IgE high-affinity receptors, which aids in activating downstream signaling pathways[19] - A new 3D transistor was developed using ultra-thin semiconductor materials, achieving performance improvements by 20 times compared to traditional silicon-based transistors[12] - Research on quantum coherence and power extraction demonstrated that increasing quantum coherence can enhance the maximum extractable power in quantum systems[9]