Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 9.25 CNY from the previous 7.80 CNY [2][9]. Core Views - The company is focusing on its core business and actively breaking through in the upstream and downstream industrial chains, despite facing pressure on profitability due to the industry's downturn [3][9]. - The company has reported a total revenue of 10.206 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 62.09% to 26.6721 million CNY [9]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and has initiated projects in key raw materials, including adiponitrile and hydrogen ammonia, while also entering the civilian sector for PA66 [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 14.572 billion CNY, which decreased to 12.919 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting an 11.3% decline [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders dropped significantly from 399 million CNY in 2022 to 123 million CNY in 2023, marking an 81.3% decrease [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.05 CNY, down from 0.12 CNY in 2023, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [10][12]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the industry is at a low point in terms of economic conditions, which is impacting the company's performance [3][9]. - The company is strategically positioning itself to meet the growing demand in the Southeast Asian and North American tire manufacturing markets by establishing a differentiated fiber project in Thailand [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor equipment industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - If imports of 7nm and more advanced process chips are restricted, it is expected to accelerate the domestic self-sufficiency process in semiconductor equipment [3]. - The main breakthroughs for 7nm and more advanced process chips are anticipated in the following areas: 1) Upgrading and domestic production of front-end process equipment; 2) Accelerated development of advanced packaging [3]. - The report highlights that the domestic semiconductor equipment industry will benefit significantly from the acceleration of domestic substitution, particularly in low domestic production rates for areas such as metrology, ion implantation, coating and developing, etching, and deposition [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the potential impact of TSMC's decision to suspend the supply of 7nm and more advanced process chips to AI/GPU customers in mainland China starting November 11 [3]. - The global capacity for mass production of 7nm logic chips is primarily held by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, with current domestic production unable to meet demand due to equipment and process bottlenecks [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1) Metrology: Zhongke Feimeicheng, Jingce Electronics 2) Ion Implantation: Huahai Qingke 3) Bonding Equipment: Kuaike Intelligent - Beneficiary stocks also include Beifang Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, Xinyuanwei, and Shengmei Shanghai [3]. Financial Projections - Key company earnings forecasts are provided, with specific EPS and PE ratios for companies such as Zhongke Feimeicheng, Huahai Qingke, Jingce Electronics, and Kuaike Intelligent, all rated "Overweight" [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company achieved product revenue of $993 million in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9%, indicating a sustained high growth trend [2]. - The net loss for Q3 2024 was $121 million, a decrease compared to a profit of $215 million in Q3 2023, primarily due to non-cash gains from arbitration settlements [2]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to $3.673 billion, $4.471 billion, and $5.224 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of $3.645 billion, $4.440 billion, and $5.044 billion [2]. - The company’s core product, Zebrutinib, continues to gain market share in the US and Europe, with Q3 2024 revenue of $690 million, a year-on-year increase of 93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% [2]. - The operational efficiency is improving, with SG&A and R&D expenses for Q3 2024 at $455 million and $496 million, respectively, accounting for 45.5% and 49.5% of total revenue [2]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenue of $1,192 million in 2022, with a projected increase to $2,459 million in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 73.7% [1]. - Gross profit for 2022 was $1,129 million, with projections of $2,079 million for 2023 [1]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, with a forecasted net profit of $278 million [1].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aoki Holdings (2519.HK) with a rating of "Buy" [3][13]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on home goods, which is showing positive results. The future expansion is expected to benefit from diversified channels and integrated supply chains, indicating promising growth prospects [2][3]. - The global online furniture and home goods market is projected to reach USD 779.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 16.6% from 2023 to 2028, outpacing overall global cross-border e-commerce growth [3][7]. - Aoki Holdings has positioned itself as a leader in the cross-border e-commerce space, ranking first in the B2C overseas e-commerce market for home goods based on GMV in 2023 [3][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Story - The report forecasts Aoki Holdings' net profit for 2024-2026 to be CNY 500 million, CNY 656 million, and CNY 815 million, reflecting a year-on-year change of -6%, +31%, and +24% respectively. The target price is set at HKD 18.2 [3][12]. 1.1. Profit Forecast - Revenue from product sales is expected to be CNY 77.9 billion, CNY 89.0 billion, and CNY 101.7 billion for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of +11%, +14%, and +14% respectively [9][10]. 2. Company Overview - Aoki Holdings has over a decade of experience in the cross-border e-commerce sector, focusing on high-quality furniture and home goods. The company has established a strong supply chain and logistics solutions to enhance customer experience [16][22]. 2.1. Historical Development - The company was founded in 2002 and has evolved through various phases, including a shift from traditional trade to e-commerce, establishing its own B2C platform, and focusing on brand development post-2013 [16][17]. 2.2. Shareholding Structure - The shareholding is concentrated, with the founder and co-founder holding a combined 28.41%, which supports operational stability [20][21]. 3. Industry Overview - The cross-border e-commerce industry is thriving, with significant growth potential in the home goods category. Aoki Holdings is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its established supply chain advantages [3][7]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has a robust R&D and operational efficiency that enhances sales effectiveness. It collaborates with 810 manufacturing partners, ensuring rapid response to market demands [8][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of approximately 6.469 billion RMB in the fiscal year 2024, with a downward adjustment for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 to 7.188 billion RMB and 7.967 billion RMB respectively [4]. - The adjusted net profit for fiscal year 2024 is projected to be around 2.105 billion RMB, with slight downward adjustments for the following years [4]. - The report highlights that the company has experienced a significant decline in net profit expectations for fiscal year 2024, primarily due to anticipated decreases in tuition fees and potential policy changes affecting international students in Australia [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth rates are projected to be 37.00% for 2020, 37.50% for 2021, 29.15% for 2022, and gradually decreasing to 10.83% by 2026 [1]. - The adjusted net profit growth rates are expected to be 28.73% for 2020, 57.13% for 2021, and tapering to 8.95% by 2026 [1]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 27.47 in 2020 to 4.77 by 2026, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness over time [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical manufacturing and pharmaceutical services industries [1][2]. Core Insights - The recent notification from the National Healthcare Security Administration and the Ministry of Finance aims to improve the medical insurance prepayment system, which is expected to alleviate the repayment pressure on pharmaceutical companies [2][3]. - The overall operation of the medical insurance fund is stable, with a total income of 1,575.5 billion yuan (+4.0%) and total expenditure of 1,382.9 billion yuan (+14.9%) from January to July 2024, resulting in a cumulative surplus of 192.6 billion yuan by July [3]. - The implementation of the prepayment system is anticipated to reduce the financial burden on medical institutions and improve cash flow for pharmaceutical distribution companies [3]. Summary by Sections Medical Insurance Prepayment System - The notification supports regions to enhance the prepayment management approach, allowing eligible medical institutions to apply for prepayments annually in January, with a scale of about one month [3]. - Previous trials of the prepayment system have been conducted in various provinces, indicating a move towards a more structured national implementation [3]. Impact on Pharmaceutical Companies - The report highlights that the repayment pressure on pharmaceutical distribution companies is expected to ease if the prepayment system is implemented nationwide, particularly in 2024 when repayment pressures are projected to be significant [3]. - Beneficiaries identified include Shanghai Pharmaceuticals and China National Pharmaceutical Group [3]. Collection Policies for Procured Drugs - The report notes that the collection policies for procured drugs are being continuously advanced, with a requirement for medical institutions to settle payments within 30 days [3]. - The report maintains "Overweight" ratings for companies such as Hengrui Medicine, East China Pharmaceutical, Enhua Pharmaceutical, and Jingxin Pharmaceutical based on their performance metrics [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the e-commerce and retail industry as "Buy" [1][2]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the retail industry from the perspective of the commodity circulation system, comparing different retail formats, analyzing competitive advantages, and predicting transformation paths [2][3]. - It emphasizes the differences in circulation systems among China, the US, and Japan, which lead to distinct retail formats and operational models [14][19]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in retail companies that can efficiently create demand, achieve scale economies, and leverage fulfillment infrastructure [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Comparison of Circulation Systems - The circulation systems in the US, Japan, and China are fundamentally different, influencing the structure and profitability of retail channels [14][19]. - The US has a "large retail, small wholesale" model, Japan has a "large wholesale, small retail" model, while China exhibits a mix of both [14][19]. 2. Retail Format Analysis - The report identifies three types of retail formats that are recommended for investment: demand-creating retail, demand-satisfying retail with SKU scale effects, and retail leveraging fulfillment infrastructure [3][36]. - It highlights the importance of matching consumer needs and efficient aggregation of orders to achieve growth [3][36]. 3. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in China is characterized by intense competition for consumer wallet share, leading to fragmented market shares across categories and a focus on fulfillment scenarios [3][36]. - The report notes that online platforms are creating market fragmentation, while offline category killers are emerging [3][36]. 4. Long-term Strategies - The report discusses the concept of long-termism in retail, suggesting that successful elements of business models can be adapted to the Chinese market [3][36]. - It highlights the case of "胖东来" as a successful local player that has established a strong relationship with consumers through localized strategies [3][36]. 5. Future Trends - The report predicts that traditional retail formats, such as supermarkets, may benefit from transformation efforts in the current market environment [3][36]. - It emphasizes the need for retailers to focus on operational efficiency and consumer engagement to thrive in a competitive landscape [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the pet industry in China, indicating it is in a rapid development phase compared to Western markets [1]. Core Insights - The pet industry in China is experiencing significant growth driven by young pet owners, leading to an increase in both the number of pets and per-pet spending [1]. - Domestic brands are rising by addressing the nutritional concerns of pet owners, which were previously dominated by foreign brands [1]. - Future product innovation will focus on addressing the health needs of pets, as pet owners become more knowledgeable about proper care [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pet industry is currently thriving, with young pet owners being the primary driving force behind the increase in pet ownership and spending [1]. - The market is evolving from basic pet food offerings to more diverse and personalized products, reflecting a trend towards "humanization" of pets [1]. Domestic Brand Development - Domestic brands are innovating in product formulation and sourcing to meet the nutritional needs of pets, responding to the "nutritional anxiety" of young pet owners [1]. - The shift in market dynamics has allowed domestic brands to gain market share and improve their rankings in terms of revenue [1]. Future Trends - The focus for future product development will be on the health of pets, with an emphasis on research and innovation similar to successful foreign companies [2]. - As pets face aging and health issues, the demand for health-oriented products is expected to grow, providing opportunities for brands that prioritize research and development [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the tourism industry, including specific segments such as hotels, chain restaurants, tourist attractions, and travel agencies [2][3]. Core Insights - The recent modification of the national holiday policy, which adds two days to the statutory holidays, is expected to boost local consumption and outbound tourism. The potential for extended holidays through annual leave is also highlighted as a positive factor for consumer spending [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the extended holiday periods will likely benefit various sectors, including supermarkets, department stores, and restaurants, as well as travel agencies for outbound tourism and domestic long-distance travel [3][4]. Summary by Sections Holiday Policy Changes - The new holiday arrangement includes an increase in statutory holidays, with 2024 having 11 days and 2025 having 13 days. The potential for creating longer holiday periods through annual leave is also discussed, with 2025 allowing for up to 27 days of extended holidays [4]. - The report notes that the changes are expected to catalyze local consumption, particularly in dining, retail, and jewelry sectors [4]. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended stocks include Yonghui Supermarket, Chongqing Department Store, Yum China, Haidilao, Zhongxin Tourism, Miniso, and Dingdong Maicai, all of which are expected to benefit from the holiday policy changes [3][6]. - Other tourism-related stocks are also anticipated to gain from the extended holiday periods [3]. Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides a detailed table of profit forecasts and valuations for various recommended stocks, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Miniso, Dingdong Maicai, Chongqing Department Store, Yonghui Supermarket, and others, all rated as "Overweight" [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cosmetics industry [1] Core Insights - The 2024 Double Eleven sales in the beauty sector exceeded expectations, achieving double-digit growth, driven by improved demand trends from the 618 shopping festival, Tmall's recovery, extended promotional periods, and bundling strategies [2][3] - The overall GMV for the Double Eleven event reached 1,441.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with comprehensive e-commerce GMV at 1,109.3 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, and live-streaming e-commerce GMV at 332.5 billion yuan, up 55% year-on-year [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - Recommended to overweight: 1. High-growth flexible targets: brands like Ruanyucheng and Runben, which are accelerating through new product launches, and Marubi, which is entering a harvest phase with its flagship products [3] 2. Strong brand momentum leaders: Proya, with excellent organization and product-driven growth; Giant Bio, with significant growth in its collagen products; and Up Beauty, which continues to grow rapidly on Douyin [3] 3. Companies expected to bottom out and potentially turn around: companies like Dengkang Oral Care, Betaini, and Huaxi Biological [3] 4. Overseas expansion and acquisition catalysts: Jiabiyou [3] Key Company Performances - Proya's main brand showed steady growth, with Tmall, Douyin, and JD.com sales increasing by over 10%, 60%, and 30% respectively [3] - Giant Bio's products, including Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, achieved impressive growth, with Kefu Mei's GMV increasing by over 80% across all channels [3] - Ruanyucheng's flagship brand, Zhanjia, ranked first in the home cleaning brand list on Tmall, with significant growth driven by its seasonal laundry liquid [3] Financial Forecasts - The report includes updated earnings forecasts for key companies, with Proya expected to have an EPS of 3.92 in 2024, and Giant Bio projected to reach an EPS of 1.97 [4]