Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The food and beverage sector has shown a recovery in valuation but remains at historically low levels as of October 25, 2024 [14] - The overall market performance from October 21 to October 25, 2024, saw the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increase by approximately 0.8%, while the food and beverage sector rose by about 2.2% [11] Market Review - From October 21 to October 25, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index had a trading volume of approximately 22,648.3 billion, with the food and beverage sector's trading volume around 1,816.5 billion [11] - The food and beverage sub-industry rankings placed it at 21st among primary sub-industries [11] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Retail sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with urban retail sales up 3.1% and rural retail sales up 3.9% [17] - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index rose to -8.1 on October 24, a significant increase of 21.9 from the previous week [19] - In September, China's liquor production reached 363,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% [21] - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.13 yuan per kilogram as of October 17, remaining stable compared to the previous week [23] - In October, beef prices decreased by 13.3% year-on-year, while pork prices increased by 16.3% [25] - Beer production in September was 2,904,000 kiloliters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [28] Industry News and Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai Group's executive Wang Li conducted market research in Beijing, focusing on the promotion of Moutai's sauce-flavored liquor and supermarket operations [31] - Guizhou Province reported a 10.1% increase in the value added of the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry for the first three quarters of the year [32] - Yonghui Supermarket's first store in Beijing underwent a comprehensive upgrade, resulting in a significant increase in customer traffic and revenue [33] - Jialong Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 15.898 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a turnaround from a loss of 28.141 million yuan in the same period last year [34] - Anji Food reported a net profit of 21.309 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 25.35% year-on-year [34] - Yuanzu Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 253 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 15.99% year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The media industry outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index with a weekly increase of 6.04%, ranking fourth among Shenwan's primary industries. The total trading volume reached 343.236 billion yuan [1][8]. - All six secondary sectors within the media industry saw gains, with advertising marketing, publishing, film and television, television broadcasting II, digital media, and gaming II increasing by 8.31%, 7.64%, 7.52%, 6.64%, 6.10%, and 3.21% respectively [1][10]. - The overall trading enthusiasm remains high, with turnover rates above the 90th percentile since 2010, indicating a continuous rise in sector valuations, particularly in the film and advertising sectors [11][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of October 21-25, 2024, the media sector experienced a significant increase of 6.04%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 0.79%. The sector ranked fourth among Shenwan's primary industries with a trading volume of 343.236 billion yuan [1][8]. Industry Data Tracking - **Cinema Attendance**: In the 43rd week, the number of moviegoers was 9.1629 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.54% and a week-on-week decrease of 28.62% [14]. - **Average Box Office**: The number of film screenings dropped to 1.4589 million, with an average box office of 250.87 yuan, which is a 40.65% increase year-on-year but a 16.04% decrease week-on-week [16]. - **Short Drama Popularity**: The popularity of short dramas remained at 430 million, reflecting their promotional and advertising engagement [18]. Industry News Summary - Tencent Music and ZTE announced a strategic partnership to enhance user experience through AI technology in music, aiming to integrate music and smart technology [19]. - The launch of Huawei's native HarmonyOS marks a significant advancement in China's operating system capabilities, becoming the third-largest mobile operating system globally [21]. - Kuaishou's AI technology is set to enhance video creation, indicating a shift towards AI-driven content production [22]. - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 113 domestic and 15 imported game licenses in October, with a notable increase in the number of domestic game approvals compared to the previous year [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the market over the next six months [3][19]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry experienced an overall increase of 4.10% from October 14 to October 18, 2024, with general equipment showing the highest growth at 5.51% [6][7]. - The average operating rate for engineering machinery in the third quarter was reported at 50.27%, reflecting a steady improvement [18]. - Domestic passenger car sales showed significant growth, with a daily average of 79,000 units sold during the week of October 8 to October 13, 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 48% [13][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment industry saw a weekly increase of 4.10% from October 14 to October 18, 2024, with general equipment leading at 5.51% [6][7]. - The trading volume for the general equipment sector was the highest at 152.7 billion yuan, while the rail transit equipment sector had the lowest at 20.69 billion yuan [9][11]. Industry Data Tracking - From October 1 to October 13, 2024, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 823,000 units, a 20% increase year-on-year [13][15]. - In September 2024, China imported integrated circuits worth $35.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [15]. Industry News Announcements - The average operating rate for various types of engineering machinery was highest for lifting equipment at 68.00% in Q3 2024, followed by excavating equipment at 52.07% [18]. - In September 2024, the internal combustion engine industry reported sales of 4.1843 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.67% and a year-on-year increase of 6.40% [18].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][30]. Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of approximately 3.2% from October 14 to October 18, with a trading volume of about 1899.5 billion yuan, while the overall market (CSI 300) rose by about 1.0% [1][8]. - The industry valuation has seen some recovery but remains at historically low levels as of October 18 [1][13]. - The report highlights a positive trend in retail sales, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September [15][17]. Market Review - The CSI 300 index had a trading volume of approximately 23356.3 billion yuan during the same period [1][8]. - The food and beverage sector ranked 31st among primary sub-industries [1]. - The report indicates that the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas increased by 3.1%, while rural areas saw a 3.9% increase [15]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index rose to -10.2 on October 18, a significant increase of 19.7 from the previous week [1][17]. - In August, the production of Chinese liquor was 256,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% [1][18]. - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.13 yuan per kilogram as of October 10, down 16.1% year-on-year [1][20]. - In September, beef prices fell by 13.1% year-on-year, while pork prices rose by 16.2% [1][22]. - Beer production in August was 3.585 million kiloliters, a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year [1][25]. Industry News and Company Announcements - The tax rate on spirits in Hong Kong has been reduced from 100% to 10% for imported spirits priced above 200 HKD [1][27]. - Fourteen food companies made it to the "2024 China Top 500 Private Enterprises" list, showcasing the strength of the food industry [1][27]. - The number of liquor producers in Renhuai has decreased from 1925 to 868 due to industry consolidation efforts [1][27]. - Company announcements include: - Lihigh Food's CEO Chen Hejun resigned but will focus on product development [2][28]. - Jialong Co. expects a net profit of 15-17 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, recovering from a loss of 28.14 million yuan in the same period last year [2][28]. - Jin Zai Food anticipates a net profit of 208-223 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 56.47%-67.75% [2][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [3]. Core Insights - The electronic industry experienced a weekly increase of 9.6%, ranking second among 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification [6][7]. - Global smartphone shipments grew by 5% year-on-year in Q3 2024, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth, driven by strong demand in emerging markets and early replacement cycles in North America, China, and Europe [25]. - The NAND Flash product prices are expected to decrease by 3%-8% in Q4 2024, while OLED monitor shipments are projected to reach 1.44 million units, a year-on-year increase of 181% [26][27]. Market Overview - The electronic industry saw a weekly increase of 9.6%, outperforming major market indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (1.4%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (3.0%) [6]. - The semiconductor sector led the growth with a 12.1% increase, followed by other electronic sectors [7]. Industry News - The global smartphone market saw a 5% year-on-year increase in Q3 2024, with Samsung and Apple leading the market shares at 18% each [25]. - The Chinese integrated circuit export value reached 838.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a 22% year-on-year increase [29]. Company Announcements - North China Huachuang (北方华创) forecasts Q3 2024 revenue between 7.42 billion to 8.54 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.4%-38.6% [30]. - Haiguang Information (海光信息) reported Q3 2024 revenue of 2.37 billion yuan, a 78.3% year-on-year increase, with net profit growing by 199.9% [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry, indicating expected performance above the market over the next six months [2][3]. Core Insights - The media sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a weekly increase of 7.25% compared to the index's 0.98% rise, ranking fourth among Shenwan's primary industries [6][10]. - The gaming sub-sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio has risen to over 50%, reflecting strong investor interest and valuation increases [2][10]. - The report highlights the continued growth in mobile gaming exports, with significant contributions from companies like miHoYo and Tencent, indicating a robust international market presence [18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of October 14-18, 2024, the media sector saw a total transaction volume of 247.17 billion yuan, with all six sub-sectors experiencing gains [6][10]. - The gaming sub-sector led the gains with a 10.83% increase, followed by film and television, advertising, digital media, publishing, and television broadcasting [7][8]. Industry Data Tracking - The number of moviegoers in the 42nd week was 12.837 million, a decrease of 8.97% year-on-year and a significant drop of 74.58% week-on-week [13]. - The average box office per screening fell to 298.81 yuan, although this represents a 26.21% increase compared to the same week last year [15]. - The popularity of short dramas remained stable, with a heat index of 440 million [17]. Industry News Summary - The report notes that in September, 35 Chinese companies made it to the global mobile game publisher revenue list, collectively earning 1.91 billion USD, which accounts for 36% of the total [18]. - The Chinese gaming market reached a record high revenue of 91.766 billion yuan in Q3 2024, marking an 8.95% year-on-year increase [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social service industry, indicating a projected growth of over 5% relative to the benchmark index in the next six months [3][29]. Core Insights - The social service industry experienced a 4.50% increase from October 14 to October 18, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by approximately 3.52 percentage points, ranking it sixth among major sectors [6][7]. - The education sector led the gains within the social service industry, with a remarkable increase of 9.41%, followed by professional services at 4.10%, tourism and scenic spots at 3.61%, and hotel and catering at 1.07% [8][9]. - The report highlights a strong recovery in the social service industry driven by policy support and market demand, particularly in tourism and education sectors [21][22]. Industry Performance Analysis - The average daily number of domestic flights from October 14 to October 20 was 12,680, reflecting a 3.00% decrease from the previous week but a 4.56% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [13][15]. - The tourism consumption price index in Hainan was recorded at 83.76, showing a significant 29.91% decrease from the previous week and an 18.40% decline year-on-year [15][16]. - The education sector had the highest trading volume at 27.917 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 98.31%, while the professional services sector had a trading volume of 16.701 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 95.93% [9][10]. Industry News and Developments - The National Immigration Administration reported that 160 million people entered and exited the country in the third quarter, marking a 30.1% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in foreign tourists [19]. - The Central Committee and the State Council issued guidelines to enhance the quality of doctoral education, aiming to cultivate urgently needed talents for national strategic needs [22]. - The upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to significantly boost outbound tourism, with promotional activities from major platforms enhancing market competition [20][21].

Price Movement - As of October 18, 2024, Shanghai gold price closed at 616.8 CNY/gram, with a weekly increase of 3.27%[5] - COMEX gold closed at 2719.6 USD/ounce, reflecting a weekly rise of 2.43%[5] - London spot gold was priced at 2712.5 USD/ounce, showing a weekly gain of 2.40%[5] Short-term Outlook - Gold prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels due to the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a remaining space for cuts this year[1] - Geopolitical conflicts are likely to influence risk aversion, further supporting gold prices[1] Long-term Investment Opportunities - The commencement of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle suggests a downward trend in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, potentially raising the central price of gold[1] - Global economic challenges and geopolitical risks enhance gold's value as a safe-haven asset[1] Market Sentiment - As of October 18, 2024, the market anticipates a 90.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November[10] - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) decreased to 18.03 points, indicating reduced market panic[10] ETF Holdings - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 10.65 tons to approximately 888.63 tons as of October 18, 2024[7] - iShares Gold ETF holdings rose by 1.35 tons to about 377.13 tons during the same period[7] Futures and Inventory - As of October 15, 2024, CFTC COMEX non-commercial net long positions in gold reached 286,434 contracts, an increase of 8,254 contracts from the previous week[15] - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 55,300 ounces to 1,699,280 ounces as of October 18, 2024[15]

Export Data - In September 2024, China's export value was $303.71 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4%, down 6.3 percentage points from August[1] - The trade surplus in September was $81.71 billion, a decrease of $9.31 billion from the previous month[1] - Exports to the EU showed a significant slowdown, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.32%, down from 13.40%[9] Import Data - In September 2024, China's import value was $222.00 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from August[1] - Imports from the EU decreased by 1.81 percentage points to -3.49% year-on-year[13] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN also saw declines, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.68%, -7.11%, and 4.23% respectively[13] Market Outlook - The global economic growth rate is below the average level of the first two decades of this century, as reported by the IMF[1] - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both lowered their economic growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points in September[1] - Despite short-term disruptions from extreme weather, exports may rebound as these factors subside[1]

Group 1: Social Financing Overview - In September 2024, the social financing scale increased by 37,634 billion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 3,692 billion yuan[1] - The growth rate of social financing stock continued to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 8.0%[5] - Government bond issuance significantly accelerated since August, becoming the main support for social financing, while credit remains a major drag[5] Group 2: Loan and Financing Details - New RMB loans in September amounted to 15,900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7,200 billion yuan[7] - In the household sector, loans increased by 5,000 billion yuan, down 3,585 billion yuan year-on-year, marking eight consecutive months of decline[7] - New government bond financing reached 15,357 billion yuan, an increase of 5,437 billion yuan year-on-year[5] Group 3: Monetary Aggregates - M2 recorded a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from August, while M1's year-on-year decline widened to -7.4%, hitting a historical low[10] - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 expanded to 14.2%[10] - Non-bank deposits increased year-on-year, likely due to a recovery in the stock market at the end of September[10]