Profit Growth Trends - From January to August 2024, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises fell to 0.5%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - In August 2024, the year-on-year profit growth rate for industrial enterprises was -17.8%, down 21.9 percentage points from July[4] - Among 41 major industrial categories, 29 reported year-on-year profit growth, indicating over 70% of industries experienced positive growth[4] Sector Performance - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan enterprises saw profit growth rates of 6.9% and 2.6%, respectively, while state-owned and joint-stock enterprises recorded declines of 1.3%[4] - The mining sector's profit decline narrowed to -9.2%, while manufacturing and utilities saw profit growth rates of 1.1% and 14.7%, respectively[4] - The equipment manufacturing sector benefited from strong industrial exports, with a profit growth rate of 3.2% from January to August 2024[4] Revenue and Inventory Insights - The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises was 2.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous period[6] - As of the end of August, the inventory of finished industrial products grew by 5.1% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] Financial Health Indicators - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained at 57.6% for three consecutive months, indicating a stable financial position[6] - Accounts receivable increased by 8.4% year-on-year, with the average collection period extending to 66.8 days, reflecting a historically high level[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include insufficient effective domestic demand, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and potential delays in policy implementation[7]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The US PCE price index increased by 2.2% year-on-year in August, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, marking the lowest level since February 2021[5] - Core PCE rose by 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the lowest since May this year[5] - Personal consumption expenditures and personal income both grew by 0.2% month-on-month in August, the lowest since January 2024 and July 2023, respectively[6] Group 2: Housing Market Trends - Existing home sales in the US totaled 3.86 million units in August, down 4.22% year-on-year and 2.53% month-on-month; new home sales were 716,000 units, up 9.82% year-on-year but down 4.66% month-on-month[9] - The median sales price of existing homes rose by 3.1% year-on-year to $416,700, while the median price of new homes fell by 4.6% year-on-year to $420,600, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline[9] - The MBA refinancing index increased by 20.3% to 1132.90, the highest level since April 2022, indicating a recovery in housing demand[9] Group 3: Market Expectations and Commodity Prices - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rose from -24.2 at the end of August to -6.1 in September, an increase of nearly 75%[12] - Precious metals prices continued to rise, with gold and silver up by 1.3% in the week of September 23-27, 2024, due to anticipated interest rate cuts[13] - Oil prices fell by 2.3% due to supply-side disruptions, while agricultural prices saw significant increases, with soybeans, corn, and wheat rising by 5.3%, 3.9%, and 2.0%, respectively[13]

Policy and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government is increasing fiscal and monetary policy counter-cyclical adjustments to support economic growth[1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately CNY 1 trillion into the financial market[12] - The Swiss National Bank has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, marking the third rate cut this year[1] Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly, returning to above 3000 points due to positive policy signals[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to rise, indicating improved shipping demand, with a week-on-week increase of 6.73%[8] Commodity and Real Estate Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell to USD 71.98 per barrel, down 3.37% week-on-week and 24.48% year-on-year[8] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities surged by 77.60% week-on-week, although it remains down 23.87% year-on-year[8] - The average price of rebar increased to CNY 3,552 per ton, reflecting a 4.56% week-on-week rise[18] Inflation and Currency - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the USD were recorded at 7.01 and 6.98, respectively, indicating a slight depreciation[1] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to CNY 26.13 per kilogram, down 1.99% week-on-week[8] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch this week include China's September manufacturing PMI and the U.S. September unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [3]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector showed a strong performance with a weekly increase of approximately 26.1%, ranking first among primary sub-industries [2][7]. - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has recovered but remains at historically low levels [12]. Market Review - From September 23 to September 27, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rise of about 15.7%, with a total weekly trading volume of approximately 1,649.29 billion yuan. The food and beverage sector's trading volume was around 231.66 billion yuan [2][7]. - The sub-industry performance included significant gains in liquor and dairy products, with liquor II and dairy products leading with increases of 29.5% and 21.2%, respectively [9]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - Retail sales in August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with urban retail sales up by 1.8% and rural retail sales up by 3.9% [16]. - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index rose to -35.4 on September 27, indicating a slight recovery [18]. - August production data revealed a decline in liquor production by 10.2% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices continued to decrease, down 15.8% year-on-year [21][23]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Water Weaving announced a price increase of 10 yuan per bottle for its premium liquor starting October 1 [30]. - Eight Chinese liquor brands made it to the "Asia's 500 Most Valuable Brands" list, showcasing the growing influence of Chinese food and beverage brands [30]. - The company Water Weaving plans to cancel 858,200 shares from its 2021 buyback, reducing its registered capital accordingly [31].

证券研究报告—宏观研究周报 撰写日期：2024 年 09 月 24 日 人民币汇率偏强运行 宏观经济高频数据周报（2024 年 9 月 16 日-9 月 22 日） 本报告导读： 9 月 18 日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究促进创业 投资发展的有关举措。会议指出，要健全资本市场功能，进一步激发创业投 资市场活力。9 月 20 日，中国人民银行公布 1 年期 LPR 为 3.35%，5 年期以 上 LPR 为 3.85%，与上月持平。海外方面，当地时间 9 月 18 日，美联储将 联邦基金利率下调 50BP 至 4.75%~5.00%，这是美联储四年来首次降息。随 着美国降息，全球多地掀起一轮"降息潮"。中国香港金管局、南非央行、 卡塔尔央行、巴林央行、阿联酋央行及科威特央行均接连降息。但在全球掀 起"降息潮"的背景下，有些国家或按兵不动，有些或逆势而行。当地时间 9 月 19 日，英国央行宣布将基准利率维持在 5%不变，符合市场预期。同时， 英国央行维持缩表步伐，宣布将在未来 12 个月内削减 1000 亿英镑的债券 购买量。当地时间 9 月 20 日，日本央行公布利率决议，政策利率维持在 0 ...

Price Performance - As of September 27, 2024, Shanghai gold price closed at 597.16 CNY/gram, with a weekly increase of 1.51%[4] - COMEX gold closed at 2649.9 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.07%[4] - London spot gold closed at 2661.85 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.15%[4] Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to continue high-level fluctuations due to the initiation of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, providing support for gold prices[1] - Long-term investment opportunities in gold remain favorable, with expectations of a rising price center driven by geopolitical risks and declining long-term U.S. Treasury yields[1] Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November 2024 are approximately 47.4%, while a 50 basis point cut has a probability of 52.6%[10] - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) recorded 16.96 points, an increase of 0.81 from the previous week, indicating rising market anxiety[10] ETF Holdings - As of September 27, 2024, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.45 tons to approximately 871.94 tons, while iShares Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.38 tons to approximately 371.36 tons[6] Futures and Inventory - As of September 24, 2024, CFTC COMEX non-commercial net long positions in gold increased by 5,324 contracts to 387,572 contracts[14] - COMEX gold inventory increased by 279,222.44 ounces to 17.1773 million ounces as of September 27, 2024[14]

Group 1: Export Trends - China's export amount increased by $892.3 billion and trade surplus by $471.2 billion from 2018 to 2023[1] - Exports to ASEAN and emerging economies have significantly increased, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner, accounting for over 16% of total exports[1] - The share of exports to developed economies (US and EU) decreased from approximately 38% in 2018 to about 32% in 2024, a decline of nearly 6 percentage points[1] Group 2: Product Structure Changes - High-end manufacturing products, particularly electromechanical products, accounted for nearly 42% of China's exports in 2023, with a significant increase of $313.9 billion from 2018 to 2023[1] - Exports of low-value-added products like textiles have decreased in growth, indicating a shift towards higher value-added industries[1] - The export structure is diversifying, with significant growth in high-tech products such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries, which contributed $136.4 billion to export growth[1] Group 3: Trade Partner Dynamics - The trade surplus with the US increased by only $12.8 billion from 2018 to 2023, while the US trade deficit grew by $202.8 billion during the same period[1] - Exports to Latin America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, showed a strong increase in high-end manufacturing and chemical products, reflecting rising consumption in these regions[1] - The trade dynamics with Middle Eastern countries also indicate a strong demand for high-end manufacturing products, with exports to this region increasing by $71.5 billion[1] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The report highlights potential risks including slower global economic recovery and rising trade protectionism, which could impact future export growth[2] - Despite potential downturns in demand from developed economies, the resilience of emerging markets is expected to support China's export growth moving forward[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market average over the next six months [3][25]. Core Insights - The media sector saw a weekly increase of 1.37%, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.32%. The sector ranked sixteenth among the Shenwan first-level industries, with a total trading volume of 46.509 billion yuan over three trading days [2][7]. - All Shenwan second-level sub-sectors experienced gains except for publishing, which declined by 1.44%. The advertising and marketing sector led the gains with a 3.57% increase, followed by digital media (2.96%), television broadcasting (1.77%), film and cinema (0.85%), and gaming (0.81%) [2][9]. - The number of moviegoers in the 38th week of 2024 was 6.9023 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.88% and a week-on-week decline of 3.39%. However, the average box office per screening increased to 223.82 yuan, up 20.53% year-on-year and 11.01% week-on-week [15][17]. - The popularity of short dramas reached a heat index of 437 million, indicating significant engagement on relevant platforms [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The media sector's performance was highlighted with a 1.37% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2][7]. - The publishing sector was the only one to decline, while advertising and marketing saw the highest increase [9][11]. 2. Industry Data Tracking - Movie attendance showed a seasonal decline, with significant year-on-year and week-on-week drops [15]. - The average box office per screening showed a positive trend despite a slight decrease in the number of screenings [17]. - Short drama engagement metrics indicate a strong interest in this content format [20]. 3. Industry News Summary - ByteDance launched an AI music generation tool, Seed-Music, which allows users to create music through various inputs, showcasing significant innovation in the field [3][22]. - Alibaba's Qwen-Max model was upgraded, showing substantial improvements in performance metrics, which is expected to enhance AI applications across industries [3][23]. - The gaming industry reported a revenue of 33.64 billion yuan in August 2024, with notable contributions from the game "Black Myth: Wukong" [3][23].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry experienced an overall increase of 1.58% from September 16 to September 20, 2024, with engineering machinery showing the highest growth at 3.85% [2][8] - The domestic average daily sales of passenger cars reached 63,000 units during the week of September 9 to September 15, 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 26% [3][17] - In August 2024, China's imports of integrated circuits amounted to $33.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [20] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - From September 16 to September 20, the mechanical equipment industry saw a rise of 1.58%, ranking 15th among sectors [2][8] - The highest increase was in engineering machinery at 3.85%, followed by specialized equipment (+1.78%), general equipment (+0.94%), and automation equipment (+0.77%). The rail transit equipment II sector had the smallest increase at 0.27% [2][8] 2. Industry Data Tracking - The average daily sales of passenger cars in China were 63,000 units for the week of September 9 to September 15, 2024, a 26% increase year-on-year [3][17] - For the first half of September, retail sales of passenger cars reached 828,000 units, up 18% year-on-year [3][17] - In August 2024, the total retail sales of automobiles amounted to 394.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.3% but a month-on-month increase of 3.8% [3][17] 3. Industry News Announcements - In August, the total working hours of engineering machinery in China increased by 4.4% month-on-month, with a national operating rate of 50.01% [4][24] - The domestic sales of excavators in September are estimated to be around 7,300 units, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 17% [4][24] - The overall sales of excavators in China for the first nine months of 2024 are expected to show a year-on-year decline of about 1%, with domestic sales increasing over 8% [4][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [3][30]. Core Insights - The social services industry experienced a 2.02% increase from September 18 to September 20, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by approximately 0.69 percentage points, ranking 8th among major sectors [2][7]. - The education sector led the gains within the industry, with a rise of 4.75%, followed by the hotel and catering, tourism and scenic spots, and professional services sectors, which increased by 4.75%, 2.08%, 1.15%, and 1.03% respectively [2][9]. - Domestic travel during the Mid-Autumn Festival saw 107 million trips, a 6.3% increase compared to the same period in 2019, with total spending reaching 51.047 billion yuan, an 8.0% increase [3][24]. - The average daily number of domestic flights was 12,351, a decrease of 2.06% week-on-week and 1.80% year-on-year [17]. - Hainan's tourism consumption price index rose to 120.34, reflecting a 24.74% increase week-on-week and an 18.81% increase year-on-year [19]. - Duty-free sales in August 2024 reached 2.197 billion yuan, a 31.09% increase from July but a 33.12% decrease year-on-year [22]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Performance - The social services industry outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index with a 2.02% increase, ranking 8th among major sectors [2][7]. - The education sector had the highest weekly trading volume at 5.996 billion yuan and an average turnover rate of 85.91% [12]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The average daily domestic flight count was 12,351, down 2.06% from the previous week [17]. - Hainan's tourism consumption price index increased to 120.34, up 24.74% week-on-week [19]. - Duty-free sales for the first eight months of 2024 totaled 22.33 billion yuan, a 30.69% decrease year-on-year [22]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Domestic travel during the Mid-Autumn Festival reached 107 million trips, with total spending of 51.047 billion yuan [3][24]. - Shenzhen's border control recorded over 165 million entry and exit trips this year, surpassing the total for 2023 [25].