Group 1: Market Overview - Long-term investment opportunities in gold remain promising due to potential shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy, with expectations of a downward trend in long-term U.S. Treasury yields[2] - As of May 31, 2024, SPDR Gold ETF holdings were approximately 832.21 tons, unchanged from the previous week, while iShares Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.26 tons to 381.20 tons[8] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations driven by inflation data and Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the April core PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of about 2.8%, the lowest since April 2021[11] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a June interest rate cut are around 4.4%, with a 95.6% probability of maintaining the current rate[57] - As of May 31, 2024, the CME Fedwatch tool indicated an 83.8% probability of no rate change in July and a 47.0% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September[57] - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) recorded 12.92 points as of May 31, 2024, reflecting increased market uncertainty due to geopolitical risks[59] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - As of May 28, 2024, CFTC COMEX non-commercial net long positions in gold rose by 6,779 contracts to 236,585 contracts[16] - Global central bank gold reserves totaled 35,938.91 tons as of May 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 111.41 tons despite a monthly decrease of 37.30 tons[63] - China's central bank gold reserves increased by 4.98 tons to 2,262.45 tons, marking 17 consecutive months of accumulation[63]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.62%, closing at 3091.68 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.32% to 9384.72 points. The ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.12%, closing at 1813.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.14% to 742.70 points. The North Exchange 50 dropped by 1.41%, closing at 771.59 points. The total trading volume of A-shares reached 7266.97 billion [2][5]. Sector Performance - Among the major sectors, the defense and military industry led with a gain of 1.68%, followed by electronics at 1.59% and automotive at 0.47%. Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector experienced the largest decline at -3.25%, followed by real estate at -2.33% and coal at -1.92% [25]. Hot Concepts - The top five performing hot concepts for the day included Hong Kong semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment with a return of 2.91%, followed by the lithography machine index at 2.79%, the National Big Fund index at 2.54%, the satellite internet index at 2.49%, and the semiconductor index at 2.32% [3][28]. Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses have gained significant policy support in recent years. In the first quarter of this year, Shenzhen's cross-border e-commerce import and export volume exceeded 110 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of over 95%, setting a new record for the same period [10].

Economic Policy and Market Trends - President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for comprehensive reform to advance Chinese-style modernization, aiming to eliminate systemic barriers and enhance economic dynamism[1] - The recent real estate policies are expected to stimulate high-quality development in the sector, boosting domestic consumption and aiding economic recovery[8] Market Performance - Last week, the main indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.07% to 3088.87 points[13] - The net outflow of major funds reached 112.34 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week's outflow of 66.39 billion yuan[3] Sector Analysis - Only the utilities sector saw a net inflow of funds, while sectors like electronics, computers, and real estate faced substantial outflows[3] - The coal sector recorded a modest gain of 2.19%, while the real estate sector dropped by 5.26%[20] Investment Climate - The net inflow of northbound funds decreased to 8.35 million yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[13] - The recent introduction of stringent regulations on shareholder share reductions aims to maintain market order and protect investor interests[8] International Context - U.S. inflation and employment pressures have eased, reducing the likelihood of immediate impacts on the domestic market from U.S. monetary policy changes[8] - China's foreign non-financial direct investment grew by 18.7% year-on-year in the first four months, indicating a stable investment environment[28]

撰写日期：2024 年 05 月 20 日 1. 国家统计局 5 月 11 日发布我国 4 月份 CPI 和 PPI 数据。 2. 5 月 17 日，财政部公开招标发行 2024 年首只超长期特别国债。 3. 港交所于 5 月 13 日不再披露北向交易实时成交额及每日额度余额 调整。 4. 国家主席习近平同俄罗斯总统普京举行会谈。 5. 中国 4 月份经济"成绩单"出炉。 6. 央行打出优化住房金融政策组合拳，还有一波楼市重磅政策将发 布。 一周市场回顾： 分析师：徐滢 资格证书：S0650511010002 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | 相关研究 | | | 《宏观市场周报（ 20240505- | | | 20240510）》2024.05.14 《黄金周度观察—— 2024 年第 | 20 周》 | | 2024.05.13 《宏观市场周报（ 20240429- | | | 20240505）》2024.05.08 《黄金周度观察—— 2024 年第 | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.14%, closing at 3124.04 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.88% to 9507.75 points. The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 0.68%, closing at 1830.96 points, and the STAR Market 50 Index increased by 1.57% to 738.65 points. The North Exchange 50 Index rose by 0.46% to 787.69 points. The total trading volume of A-shares in both markets was 7783.86 billion [21][25]. Market Sentiment - The number of stocks that rose reached 3397, an increase of 2084 from the previous trading day. The number of stocks that fell decreased to 1760, down by 2090. The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 45, while those hitting the limit down increased to 51 [8][22]. Sector Performance - Among the major sectors, the electronic sector led with a rise of 2.14%, followed by coal at 2.05% and transportation at 1.70%. The sectors with the largest declines were construction materials at -0.65%, real estate at -0.12%, and comprehensive at -0.07% [31]. Capital Flow - The net inflow of northbound funds amounted to 27.48 billion, with the Shanghai Stock Connect seeing a net buy of 24.28 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Connect a net buy of 3.20 billion [21][25]. M&A Activity - As of May 26, 121 listed companies have updated significant restructuring announcements this year, significantly higher than the 45 from the same period last year. The report highlights three trends: industry consolidation becoming mainstream, the diminishing value of "shell" resources, and technology-driven central state-owned enterprises leading M&A activities. The report anticipates continued activity in A-share M&A as policy benefits are released and market ecology improves [23].

证券研究报告—每周市场回顾 撰写日期：2024 年 05 月 27 日 每周市场回顾 本周上证指数下跌 2.07%，收于 3088.87 点，深证成指下跌 2.93%，收 于 9424.58 点，创业板指下跌 2.49%，收于 1818.56 点，科创 50 下跌 3.61%， 收于 727.21 点，北证 50 下跌 0.80%，收于 784.07 点。 本周恒生指数下跌4.83%，收于18608.94点，恒生科技指数下跌7.61%， 收于 3799.47 点，恒生中国企业指数下跌 4.75%，收于 6605.24 点，恒生港 股通中小型股下跌 4.65%，收于 2360.12 点。 本周北向资金净流入，全周累计净流入 8.35 亿元。沪股通日均成交额 604.16 亿元，较上周日均减少 4.83%，沪股通历史累计资金净流入升至 10292.25 亿元。深股通日均成交额 585.87 亿元，较上周日均减少 4.17%， 深股通历史累计资金净流入降至 8277.61 亿元。 麦高证券 研究发展部 （2024.05.20-2024.05.24） 投资要点： 当前上证指数市盈率（TTM）为 13.54，处于近十年 ...

本公司与作者在自身所知情范围内，与本报告中所评价或推荐的证券不存在法律法规要求披 露或采取限制、静默措施的利益冲突。本公司或关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的 证券并进行交易，并在法律许可的情况下不进行披露；可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行 或财务顾问服务。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何 保证。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的证 券或投资标的价格、价值及投资收入可升可跌，过往表现不应作为日后的表现依据。在不同时期， 本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告，本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持 在最新状态。同时，本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自 行关注相应的更新或修改。 本报告仅供本公司签约客户使用，若您并非本公司签约客户，为控制投资风险，请取消接收、 订阅或使用本报告中的任何信息。本公司也不会因接收人收到、阅读或关注自媒体推送本报告中 的内容而视其为客户。若本公司客户（以下称"该客户"）向第三方发送本报告，则由该客户独 自为此发送行为负责。提醒通过此途径获得本报 ...

摘要 R007 与 DR007 利差下行，交易所回购利率下行 上周同业存单到期量减少，为 7072.30 亿元（前一周为 8126.90 亿 元），发行数量有 582 只，实际发行总额为 8389.40 亿元（前一周为 6811.30 亿元）。平均票面利率下行 1.67BP 至 2.02%。 分析师：徐滢 资格证书：S0650511010002 联系邮箱：xuying@mgzq.com 联系电话：024-22955441 《流动性周报（20240504-20240510）》 2024.05.16 《流动性跟踪周报（20240427- 20240503）》2024.05.09 《流动性跟踪周报（20240422- 20240426）》2024.04.30 《流动性跟踪周报（20240413- 20240419）》2024.04.22 正文目录 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 图表 1： ...

麦高研究之每日市场观察（2024.05.15） 重要新闻： 据中国证券报消息，5 月 15 日，资本市场迎来新 "国九 条" 出台后的首个 "5·15 全国投资者保护宣传日" 。为贯彻落实新"国九条" 提出的 "更加有效保护投资者特别是中小投资者合法权益" 等相关要求， 监管部门应持续深入践行人民立场，更加重视把投资者的保护工作贯穿于 制度建设和监管执法的全过程。 今日规模风向标简报：万得全 A 下跌 0.83%，收于 4494.58 点，上证 50 下跌 0.77%，收于 2477.39 点，沪深 300 下跌 0.85%，收于 3626.06 点， 中证 500 下跌 0.98%，收于 5446.66 点，中证 1000 下跌 0.98%，收于 5497.23 点，中证 2000 下跌 0.85%，收于 2063.97 点，万得微盘股指数上涨 0.24%， 收于 237189.28 点。 风险提示：量化结论基于历史统计，如若未来市场环境发生变化时， 存在失效风险。 分析师：胡晓璐 资格证书：S0650523100002 联系邮箱：huxiaolu@mgzq.com 联系电话：15821110817 相关研 ...

麦高证券 研究发展部 R001 均值为 2.88%，较前一周上行 88.34BP，DR001 均值为 1.75%， 较前一周下行 1.79BP。DR007 加权均价的均值为 1.98%，较前一周上行 10.54BP。R007 加权均价的均值为 2.57%，较前一周上行 41.9BP。二者收盘 价利差（R007-DR007）收于 0.67BP，较前一周上行 0.54BP。交易所回购利 率上行，GC007 均值为 2.57%，较前一周上行 40.86BP。 风险提示：政策超预期、金融监管超预期等。 相关研究 流动性跟踪周报 图表目录 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 本周资金面关注因素 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------|------------|----------------------|--------|---------------| | | 图表 1：上周公开市场操作 | | | | | | | 名称 发行 | 发生日期 | 发行量(亿元) 利率(%) | | 利率变动 (bp) | | | ...