2024 年 3 月 22 日 板块方面，低空经济现涨停潮，猪肉、贵金属等板块涨势较好。近期 市场热点主要集中在新质生产力方向，细分来看，飞行汽车、人工智 能相对较强。指数蓄势过程中个股波动率趋弱，结构性特征或愈加明 显。 【资金面】 1.国家发改委：加快培育发展新质生产力 大力推进现代化产业体系建 设 2.央行：与国外央行相比我国货币政策传导是有效的 目前信贷增速也 保持在合理水平 1.国家能源局：2025 年我国初步建成煤矿智能化标准体系 在任何情况下，本文所推送信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。除非法律法规有明确规定， 任何情况下财达证券不对因使用本文的内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任。读者不应以本文推送内容取 代其独立判断或仅根据本文推送内容做出决策。财达证券版权所有并保留一切权力。如发现其他版权问题， 请致电客服或发送邮件，相关人员会及时处理。 周四市场小幅高开后强势震荡，两市涨跌停家数几乎持平，市场情绪 有一定回落。量能较前一交易日小幅增加，北上资金却再度净流出。 市场震荡过程中资金虽出现分歧，但成交情况仍可以维持万亿规模， 短期板块轮动的格局有望延续。 市场概况：3 月 21 日，市 ...

撰写日期：2024 年 03 月 04 日 本周两会召开，市场或将延续震荡走势 上周国内主要新闻： 1.中国人民银行召开做好金融五篇大文章工作座谈会。 2.西班牙巴塞罗那召开的 2024 年世界移动通信大会上汇聚于主题为 "算力网络：智能网络赋能智慧世界"的专题论坛。 3.证监会推动区域性股权市场建立与全国性证券交易场所的产品衔接 和制度性对接机制。 4.证监会党委书记、主席吴清主持召开资本市场法治建设座谈会，就 完善资本市场基础制度、加强法治保障听取意见建议。 5.国家统计局发布数据显示，2 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.1%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。 上周国际主要新闻： 1.高盛与穆巴达拉携手启动 10 亿美元亚太私募信贷投资合作。 2.日本 1 月核心 CPI 同比上升 2%。 3.美联储柯林斯表示，基准情景是美联储将于今年降息。 4.新西兰联储维持基准利率在 5.5%不变，连续第五次暂停加息，符合 市场预期。 5.俄罗斯央行最终委员决定保持利率不变。 一周市场回顾： 沪深两市春节前后连续反弹，强势特征明显，沪指更是连续收复几个 整数关口，站上 3000 点。上周的市场经过连续多日反弹后 ...

流动性跟踪周报（20240205-20240209） 同业存单 上周同业存单到期量有所增加，为 5667.90 亿元（前一周为 2970.80 亿元），发 行数量减少至 412 只，实际发行总额为 4267.40 亿元（前一周为 3615.50 亿元）。平 均票面利率下行 6BP 至 2.34%。 利率互换 上周票据利率上行，其中票据利率（国股行/半年/直贴）收于 1.84%，环比上涨 4BP； 票据利率（国股行/半年/转贴）收于 1.65%，环比上涨 4BP。 图表 8：近一年国股行半年转贴利率走势 资料来源：Wind、麦高证券研究发展部 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 流动性跟踪周报 图表 10：近三年 SOFR 走势 资料来源：Wind、麦高证券研究发展部 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 SOFR.IR 【分析师承诺】 本公司与作者在自身所知情范围内，与本报告中所评价或推荐的证券不存在法律法规要求披 露或采取限制、静默措施的利益冲突。本公司或关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的 证券并进行交易，并在法律许可的情况下不进行披露；可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行 ...

板块方面，低空经济现涨停潮，猪肉、贵金属等板块涨势较好。近期 市场热点主要集中在新质生产力方向，细分来看，飞行汽车、人工智 能相对较强。指数蓄势过程中个股波动率趋弱，结构性特征或愈加明 显。 北向资金：3 月 21 日，北向资金净卖出 60.2 亿，其中沪股通净卖出 31.12 亿元，深股通净卖出 29.08 亿元。 措，促进战略性新兴产业加快发展，不断塑造发展的新动能和新优势， 推动经济高质量发展。 每日市场观察 沪指高开后小跌收盘，盘中下探至 5 日均线附近获得支撑，周五开盘 短期均线或将继续跟进，股指有望继续向 3100 点推进。本周沪指大概 率收红，下周开盘 5 周均线可能继续上行托举指数，下方支撑进一步 夯实，指数蓄势后或将收复 3100 点大关。 【资金面】 国家发改委副主任刘苏社表示，下一步，我委将认真贯彻落实党中央、 国务院决策部署，加快培育发展新质生产力，大力推进现代化产业体 系建设。我们将强化企业创新主体地位，以科技创新引领产业创新， 促进形成龙头企业创新引领、中小企业快速成长、初创企业不断涌现 的企业梯队；打造产业集聚发展高地，推动战略性新兴产业融合集群 发展，打造一批结构合理、各具特色 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue its upward trend towards 3100 points, supported by the 5-day moving average and the 5-week moving average potentially rising next week [1] - The fiscal revenue in China showed a recovery trend, with the general public budget revenue for January-February at 4.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but a real growth of about 2.5% on a comparable basis [2] - The National Energy Administration is working on establishing a coal mine intelligent standard system, aiming for a preliminary establishment by 2025 and a comprehensive system by 2030 [3] Group 2 - Shanghai plans to promote future industries through four key initiatives, including hosting the "Future Industry Star" competition and advancing the construction of future industry pilot zones [4][18] - The manufacturing investment growth rate accelerated to 9.4% year-on-year in January-February, outpacing overall investment growth by 5.2 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in the manufacturing sector [23] - The People's Bank of China stated that the monetary policy transmission is effective compared to foreign central banks, with credit growth remaining at a reasonable level [15][31] Group 3 - The gaming industry in China saw mobile game companies generate a total revenue of 2.03 billion USD in February, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [17][33] - Publicly offered Fund of Funds (FOF) face growth challenges, with over ten three-year holding period pension FOFs failing to reach a scale of 200 million yuan, potentially triggering liquidation [5][34] - The market showed a mixed performance with low-altitude economy and AI application sectors remaining active, while automotive dismantling concepts faced adjustments [10][20]

Group 1 - Shanghai will promote the demonstration application of future industries from four aspects, including organizing the "Future Industry Star" competition and advancing the construction of future industry pilot zones [1] - The focus areas include biomanufacturing, quantum technology, 6G, new energy storage, deep-sea exploration, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace, aiming to break through a number of landmark technologies and products [1] Group 2 - Publicly offered Fund of Funds (FOF) face growth challenges, with over ten three-year holding period pension FOFs failing to reach a scale of 200 million, potentially triggering liquidation thresholds [2] - Despite the average performance of funds nearing recovery, the number of public FOFs has not decreased due to liquidations, indicating survival pressures in the market [2] Group 3 - New funds established this year have shown optimism in the market, with several achieving returns of 10-20% quickly after market adjustments [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has increased over 13% since February 6, indicating a recovering market environment [4] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes has led to significant gains in U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising 1.25% and reaching a historical closing high [5] - The Fed's dovish stance suggests that interest rates may have peaked, and a loosening of monetary policy could be appropriate later this year, which may enhance market valuations and risk appetite [5] Group 5 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to accelerate the cultivation of new productive forces and promote the construction of a modern industrial system [13] - Manufacturing investment growth has accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, outpacing overall investment growth by 5.2 percentage points, supporting economic stability [14] Group 6 - The State Energy Administration aims to establish an intelligent coal mine standard system by 2025, promoting the development of new productive forces [16] - In February, Chinese mobile game manufacturers generated a total revenue of $2.03 billion, reflecting a 3.6% month-on-month increase, with 37 companies entering the global top 100 revenue list [17]

市场概况：3 月 21 日，市场全天震荡调整，三大指数均小幅下跌。盘 面上，低空经济板块持续爆发，AI 应用方向继续活跃，猪肉股集体走 强，存储芯片概念股一度冲高。下跌方面，汽车拆解概念股展开调整。 总体上个股跌多涨少，全市场超 2900 只个股下跌。沪深两市 21 日成 交额 10677 亿，较上个交易日放量 677 亿。板块方面，猪肉、低空经 济、贵金属、Sora 概念等板块涨幅居前，汽车拆解、AI 手机、CRO、 液冷服务器等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指跌 0.08%，深成指跌 0.36%， 创业板指跌 0.64%。 【资金面】 北向资金：3 月 21 日，北向资金净卖出 60.2 亿，其中沪股通净卖出 31.12 亿元，深股通净卖出 29.08 亿元。 主力资金流向：3 月 21 日，上证净流入 18.48 亿元，深证净流出 25.30 亿元。行业板块方面，主力资金流入前三的板块为证券、影视院线、 养殖业，主力资金流出排名前三的板块为光伏设备、电池、通信设备。 【消息面】 1.国家发改委：加快培育发展新质生产力 大力推进现代化产业体系建 设 国家发改委副主任刘苏社表示，下一步，我委将认真贯彻落实党中央 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 0.74% to 3027.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increase by 4.03% to 9434.75 points, the ChiNext Index up by 3.74% to 1824.03 points, the Sci-Tech 50 rise by 6.67% to 815.49 points, and the North Star 50 increase by 5.44% to 926.60 points [5][17]. - The average daily trading volume for the A-share market was 11000.52 billion RMB, an increase of 21.85% compared to the previous week [23]. Valuation Analysis - The current TTM price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 12.94, which is at the 33.69 percentile of the past ten years. The Shenzhen Component Index has a TTM PE of 20.76, at the 18.24 percentile, while the ChiNext Index has a TTM PE of 27.41, at the 2.05 percentile [11][13]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors this week included Computer (7.53%), Electronics (7.02%), Telecommunications (6.05%), Machinery (5.60%), and Home Appliances (5.55%). Conversely, the sectors with the largest declines were Banking (-2.33%), Transportation (-1.29%), Utilities (-1.05%), Coal (-1.00%), and Real Estate (-0.72%) [27]. - The correlation among rising industries shifted from negative to positive, indicating enhanced sustainability in the upward trends across various sectors and themes [29]. Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.82% to 16589.44 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.60% to 3488.13 points. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.63% to 5728.84 points, and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Small Cap Index dropped by 0.27% to 2166.93 points [34]. - The current TTM PE ratio for the Hang Seng Index is 8.32, at the 5.93 percentile of the past ten years, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has a TTM PE of 17.89, at the 6.09 percentile [36]. Capital Flow Analysis - Northbound capital saw a cumulative net inflow of 235.46 billion RMB, continuing the trend from the previous week. The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 728.5 billion RMB, up 10.90% from the previous week [56]. - Southbound capital recorded a cumulative net inflow of 83.59 billion RMB, with the average daily trading volume for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect at 164.62 billion RMB, down 1.69% from the previous week [19][56].

-2.00 资料来源:Wind、麦高证券研究发展部 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 7 宏观研究周报 5 图表 4: 行业资金净流入额统计 4. 00 2.00 0.00 -4. 00 -6.00 电 银 建 国 产 行 筑 防 中 轻环农汽综基 纺 通 机 钢 版社会 中国政策 上海年 同買來 在台北 H-34 明 炭 织 信 械 铁 n the 」力波谷 道远 工 保 林 制 车 合 士或者 參見 參考文 參考文 參考文 报 娱 地 设 化 本报告器名分析师具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资投资咨询执业资格,并在中国证券 业协会注册登记为证券分析师。本报告所采用的数据、资料的来源合法、合规,分析师基于独 立、客观、专业、审慎的原则出具本报告,并对本报告的内容和观点负责。报告结论未受任何 第三方的投意或影响。分析师承诺不曾、不因、也将不会因报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接获取任何形式补偿。 【重要声明】 麦高证券有限责任公司(以下简称"本公司")具有中国证券监督管理委员会核准的证券投 资咨询业务资格。 从主力资金流动情况上看,上周主力资金净流出金额为 1076.28 亿元,较前周 流出额(468. ...

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