Global Markets Strategy 24 September 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy Assessing the impact of PBoC & CSRC's stimulus combo | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Europe Equity Research 24 September 2024 J P M O R G A N China: PBOC announced comprehensive monetary policy support Read-across to EMEA Metals & Mining - JPM OW Rio Tinto, Anglo American & ArcelorMittal | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve led a global wave of interest rate cuts, reducing rates by 50 basis points (bp) this week, with a mix of compensatory and preventive cuts[1] - Other central banks, including those in Indonesia, South Africa, and the UAE, followed the Fed's lead, while the Bank of England and Norway maintained their rates[3] - The Fed's 50bp cut included 25bp as compensation for previous policies, indicating a preventive approach rather than a response to a major economic crisis[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Global stock markets showed mixed but overall positive performance, with U.S. stocks rebounding significantly after initial declines following the rate cut announcement[3] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to approximately 3.74%, reflecting market adjustments after the Fed's rate cut[3] - The narrowing of the yield curve indicates increased confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the recovery in long-term bond yields[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.1% month-on-month, slightly below expectations, while core retail sales also rose by 0.1%[7] - Industrial production in the U.S. rebounded with a 0.8% increase in August, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity[11] - The U.S. housing market showed signs of recovery, with new housing starts rising to an annualized rate of 1.356 million units in August, exceeding expectations[13] Group 4: International Trade and Inflation - The Eurozone experienced a rebound in trade, with exports rising by 10.2% year-on-year in July, while imports increased by 4.0%[19] - Eurozone inflation showed signs of easing, with the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.2%, down from 2.6% in the previous month[22] - In the UK, core CPI rose to 3.6% in August, driven by increased service costs, while overall CPI remained stable at 2.2%[22]

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2024 年第 25 期） 2024 年 8 月 12 日 哈里斯民调反超，美国大选再生悬念 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 民银证券研究团队 | | | 【一周焦点】 | | 应习文 | | | 哈里斯获民主党提名并确定竞选搭档。明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·沃尔 | | 电 话： +852 3728 8180 | | | 兹（ Tim Walz ）与哈里斯的互补性强于特朗普与万斯组合。最新民 | | Email ： | xiwenying@cmbcint.com | | 调显示，哈里斯民调已超过特朗普，在 9 大摇摆州民调中，哈里斯 | | | | | 以 5:4 领先。随着"衰退交易"和"反套息交易"空间收窄，市场 | | | | ...

请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的免责声明 5 专题报告 宏观策略研究 图 6：2019 年美联储降息前后的主要资产表现（以首次降息时点为 100） 资料来源：WIND，美债涨幅以收益率变动乘以久期计算 1.7 历史降息交易的特点总结 从 1984 年以来的 6 次降息历史可以看出以下特点： 一是从整体涨幅排序来看，降息最有利于美债，其次是黄金，之后是美股，而 对美元的影响并不显著。从美债来看，由于市场对于降息的预期往往会提前启 动，降息前美债涨幅最大，其次是降息后 3 个月，而降息后 3-6 个月的平均表 现则会收窄甚至回落。从黄金来看，与美债相反，首次降息前后平均涨幅较小， 但降息后 3-6 个月的涨幅最为明显，从原因看黄金一般需要等到实际利率走低 （往往需要美债上行+通胀平稳）才会开始上涨，因此涨势会落后于美债。 二是在降息导致最终的衰退情境下，美债与黄金继续表现优异，美元与美股则 会出现走弱表现。其中，美股与美债表现依旧存在美债先涨后缓，黄金先缓后 涨的特征。美元与美股则会出现走弱表现，在经济发生衰退和危机的情况下， 降息在短期内对企业盈利和市场风险偏好的支持有限，导致美股走弱，不过在 降息后 3-6 个月， ...