Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve led a global wave of interest rate cuts, reducing rates by 50 basis points (bp) this week, with a mix of compensatory and preventive cuts[1] - Other central banks, including those in Indonesia, South Africa, and the UAE, followed the Fed's lead, while the Bank of England and Norway maintained their rates[3] - The Fed's 50bp cut included 25bp as compensation for previous policies, indicating a preventive approach rather than a response to a major economic crisis[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Global stock markets showed mixed but overall positive performance, with U.S. stocks rebounding significantly after initial declines following the rate cut announcement[3] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to approximately 3.74%, reflecting market adjustments after the Fed's rate cut[3] - The narrowing of the yield curve indicates increased confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the recovery in long-term bond yields[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.1% month-on-month, slightly below expectations, while core retail sales also rose by 0.1%[7] - Industrial production in the U.S. rebounded with a 0.8% increase in August, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity[11] - The U.S. housing market showed signs of recovery, with new housing starts rising to an annualized rate of 1.356 million units in August, exceeding expectations[13] Group 4: International Trade and Inflation - The Eurozone experienced a rebound in trade, with exports rising by 10.2% year-on-year in July, while imports increased by 4.0%[19] - Eurozone inflation showed signs of easing, with the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.2%, down from 2.6% in the previous month[22] - In the UK, core CPI rose to 3.6% in August, driven by increased service costs, while overall CPI remained stable at 2.2%[22]

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2024 年第 25 期） 2024 年 8 月 12 日 哈里斯民调反超，美国大选再生悬念 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 民银证券研究团队 | | | 【一周焦点】 | | 应习文 | | | 哈里斯获民主党提名并确定竞选搭档。明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·沃尔 | | 电 话： +852 3728 8180 | | | 兹（ Tim Walz ）与哈里斯的互补性强于特朗普与万斯组合。最新民 | | Email ： | xiwenying@cmbcint.com | | 调显示，哈里斯民调已超过特朗普，在 9 大摇摆州民调中，哈里斯 | | | | | 以 5:4 领先。随着"衰退交易"和"反套息交易"空间收窄，市场 | | | | ...

请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的免责声明 5 专题报告 宏观策略研究 图 6：2019 年美联储降息前后的主要资产表现（以首次降息时点为 100） 资料来源：WIND，美债涨幅以收益率变动乘以久期计算 1.7 历史降息交易的特点总结 从 1984 年以来的 6 次降息历史可以看出以下特点： 一是从整体涨幅排序来看，降息最有利于美债，其次是黄金，之后是美股，而 对美元的影响并不显著。从美债来看，由于市场对于降息的预期往往会提前启 动，降息前美债涨幅最大，其次是降息后 3 个月，而降息后 3-6 个月的平均表 现则会收窄甚至回落。从黄金来看，与美债相反，首次降息前后平均涨幅较小， 但降息后 3-6 个月的涨幅最为明显，从原因看黄金一般需要等到实际利率走低 （往往需要美债上行+通胀平稳）才会开始上涨，因此涨势会落后于美债。 二是在降息导致最终的衰退情境下，美债与黄金继续表现优异，美元与美股则 会出现走弱表现。其中，美股与美债表现依旧存在美债先涨后缓，黄金先缓后 涨的特征。美元与美股则会出现走弱表现，在经济发生衰退和危机的情况下， 降息在短期内对企业盈利和市场风险偏好的支持有限，导致美股走弱，不过在 降息后 3-6 个月， ...