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美国FY24财政最新预测7%的赤字率怎么看?
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-27 01:48
本次电话会议仅服务于星业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为星业证券所有内容必须经星业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权星业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 商业证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性商业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 好 尊敬的各位投资者大家晚上好我是信用证券宏观团队的分析师彭欢迎欢迎大家来参加我们今天晚上的宏观创划电话会议今天晚上呢将由我的同事王志宁为大家带来关于美国财政预算的一个最新的一个更新和解读有请志宁 好的感谢怀恩老师的介绍尊敬的各位投资人大家晚上好我是信息证券宏观研究员王志宁我们在上周看到美国国会预算办公室发布了2024财年也就是这一财年的最新的一个联邦政府赤字的预算的预测那么在这份预测当中预计2024财年的联邦政府赤字率达到了7%的水平 既高于去年的5.6%又高于他在今年二月预测的6.2%的一个水平那么如何去看待这样一个非常超预期的美国财政的扩张我们借今天的15分钟跟大家简 ...
信义光能近况交流
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-26 11:09
本次电话会议仅服务于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 商业证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性商业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 好的谢谢慧祝你各位投资人大家下午好我是信息证券海外团队的张忠业欢迎大家参加今天的清一光轮小范围交流我们今天邀请到的嘉宾是公司的IID谢总我们今天的交流也是分为两个部分首先请谢总来简单介绍一下公司的一个近况然后我们再进入更大环节 谢谢张总今天的邀请,也谢谢各位投资者今天来出席策略会议。我们在6月初的时候刚点了一条马来西亚的1200吨产线,所以目前这一刻 2017千吨的这么一个规模那么还有三条这个原计划是在今年投产的产线应该也会是大体的计划是不会变的所以我们今年的这个金正海这六条产线合计6400吨的这么一个容量 那么剩下的三条大概率是在六七八月去做一个点火还有两条是在安徽省的吴 ...
24年航运中期策略
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-26 08:22
本次电话会议仅服务于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 深夜证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性深夜证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 各位线上的投资人大家下午好然后我是那个新政交易的行业分析师黄凯然后跟各位线上的一个投资人分享一下我们对于这个行业板块2024年这个中期策略的这样的一个观点的一个汇报然后我今天下午的这样的一个汇报主要是分为两部分第一部分是对于整个这样的一个市场的这样的一个中期策略的 这个大概的一个摘要啊 大概的这个核心观点进行一个体验 然后对涉及到的第二部分就是对涉及到主要的这样的一个航运板块 我们重点推荐的这个标的 再跟各位投资人进行汇报一下然后首先还是汇报一下我们对于整个下半年这个集运和这个邮轮这样两个系分子板块下半年的这样的一个 中期策略的这样一个观点吧然后集运反馈呢我们认为呢其实从整 ...
传媒行业2024年中期策略
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-25 14:36
已请服务于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 深夜证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性深夜证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 各位尊敬的投资者大家晚上好很高兴今天可以给大家讲一下我们的中期策略我们新业证券传媒组的中期策略报告我们的标题就是曙光一现重视AI应用的投资机遇我们也能看到过去这两年从OpenAI的Chest GDP开始整个的AI在全球范围内都有了一个非常大的爆发 然后去年传媒板块也是如火如荼的这样一个行情今年反而就是在行情上来说稍微比较疲软一些 比较批软一些但是我们看到像国外像英伟达为代表的人包括像苹果这样的一些科技巨头还有国内的像一些AI的硬件上的比如说像一中天就是那个像心一生啊终极虚创啊等等这些公司都也有一个非常好的一个行情这样而传媒呢作为这个AI的一个应用的这样的一个阵地然后今年的表现比较一般 ...
首席之声240623
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-23 14:46
Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Xingye Securities, focusing on its client meeting audio and text records [1] Core Points and Arguments - The content of the conference call is copyrighted by Xingye Securities, and any retention of the content must be approved by the company [1] - Unauthorized reproduction or forwarding of the meeting content is considered infringement, and Xingye Securities reserves the right to pursue legal action [1] - All participants in the conference call are prohibited from disclosing insider information or any undisclosed important information [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on confidentiality and legal rights indicates the importance of compliance and regulatory adherence in the financial services industry [1]
2024年5月快递月报:重视通达龙头配置价值,攻守兼备优势突出
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-23 05:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the express delivery industry, emphasizing the value of leading companies in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a significant increase in business volume, reaching 14.78 billion packages in May 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.8% [1][3]. - Revenue for the industry totaled 115.99 billion yuan in May 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [1][3]. - The average revenue per package decreased to 7.85 yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year [1][3]. - The industry concentration, measured by the CR8 index, stands at 85.2%, indicating a slight increase in market share among the top players [1][3]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery Industry - Business volume reached 14.78 billion packages, with a year-on-year growth of 23.8% and a month-on-month increase of 7.9% [1][3]. - Revenue for the month was 115.99 billion yuan, up 15.6% year-on-year [1][3]. - The average revenue per package was 7.85 yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year [1][3]. - The CR8 index indicates a concentration level of 85.2%, with a slight increase compared to previous months [1][3]. E-commerce Express Delivery - Major companies such as YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported revenues of 5.093 billion, 4.136 billion, and 3.902 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 22.6%, 10.1%, and 17.6% [1][3]. - Business volumes for these companies were 2.284 billion, 2.042 billion, and 1.946 billion packages, with respective growth rates of 27.6%, 32.7%, and 29.5% [1][3]. SF Express - SF Express reported total revenue of 22.555 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.88% [1][3]. - The logistics segment generated 17.097 billion yuan, up 12.72% year-on-year, with a package volume of 1.121 billion [1][3]. - The average revenue per package was 15.25 yuan, down 1.17% year-on-year [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Long-term outlook suggests that the industry's ultimate value is underestimated, with a clearer path towards consolidation and pricing power as competition stabilizes [1][3]. - Short-term focus should be on the performance of leading companies like Zhongtong and YTO, which are expected to maintain strong positioning despite potential price adjustments [1][3].
软通动力:拥抱华为生态,软硬件协同发展
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-23 03:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading IT service provider in China, actively engaging in digital transformation across various industries, including telecommunications, internet, and fintech [10][11]. - The acquisition of Tongfang Computer enhances the company's hardware capabilities and aligns with Huawei's ecosystem, facilitating deep software and hardware integration [4][41]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth in Q1 2024, with a reported revenue of 5.449 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.65% [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading IT Service Provider - The company has established a comprehensive digital technology service model, integrating services, software, and hardware [10]. - It has built 30 capability centers and partnered with over 50 technology firms, enhancing its service offerings [11][12]. 2. Deep Participation in Huawei's Software Ecosystem - The company is a key player in Huawei's foundational software ecosystem, contributing significantly to the development of HarmonyOS and openEuler [30][33]. - It ranks first in the number of devices connected to the open-source Harmony community, with over 900 products provided to more than 450 partners [30][31]. 3. Acquisition of Tongfang Computer - The acquisition of Tongfang Computer and its subsidiaries has diversified the company's revenue structure and strengthened its position in the hardware market [41][42]. - The integration of Tongfang's products, including AI servers and PCs, is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the domestic market [41][42]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The company forecasts significant revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with expected revenues of 34.097 billion yuan, 38.749 billion yuan, and 43.787 billion yuan, respectively [51]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 653 million yuan, 787 million yuan, and 923 million yuan, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [51][52].
龙源电力近况交流
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-21 03:25
Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call involved Longyuan Power, a company in the power generation industry Core Points and Arguments - The meeting was structured as a mid-term strategy exchange, emphasizing the importance of confidentiality regarding the information shared during the call [1] - The call was designed to last between 40 to 45 minutes, indicating a focused discussion format [1] - Participants were encouraged to ask questions, highlighting an interactive approach to the meeting [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The presence of leadership from Longyuan Power suggests a strategic focus on engaging with stakeholders and addressing their inquiries directly [1] - The emphasis on not leaking information to the internet underscores the sensitivity of the topics discussed, which may include proprietary strategies or financial data [1]
欧央行降息后,美元?外需?
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-20 14:57
Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Xin Ye Securities and its clients Core Points and Arguments - The content of the conference call is copyrighted by Xin Ye Securities, and any reproduction or distribution without permission is considered infringement [1] - Participants are reminded not to disclose insider information or any material non-public information [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of confidentiality and legal repercussions for unauthorized sharing of the meeting content [1]
银行理财2024年5月月报:理财规模上升,收益率略有回落
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2024-06-19 02:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the banking wealth management industry [2] Core Insights - The banking wealth management market saw an increase in scale, attributed to the ongoing impact of the cessation of manual interest supplementation, with a total market size of 28.98 trillion yuan as of May 2024, an increase of 263.1 billion yuan from the previous month [8][37] - The performance benchmarks for wealth management products issued in May 2024 showed a slight decline, with 1-3 month products at 2.77%, down 7 basis points from the previous month [18][29] - Regulatory changes emphasize quality over scale in wealth management company ratings, aligning with recent regulatory trends focusing on high-quality development [4][37] Summary by Sections 1. Existing Wealth Management Market Overview - As of May 2024, the wealth management market's total size reached 28.98 trillion yuan, with cash management products accounting for 8.28 trillion yuan (28.60%), fixed income products at 19.97 trillion yuan (68.9%), and mixed products at 579 billion yuan (2.00%) [8][10] - The top three institutions by wealth management product size are China Merchants Bank Wealth Management (2.50 trillion yuan), Xinyin Wealth Management (2.28 trillion yuan), and ICBC Wealth Management (1.86 trillion yuan) [8][10] 2. Wealth Management Product Issuance Market Overview - In May 2024, the issuance scale of wealth management products decreased to 367.3 billion yuan, a drop of 61.9 billion yuan from the previous month [15][25] - The issuance structure showed that products with a duration of 3-12 months accounted for 51.2% of the total issuance, while products with a duration of over one year made up 43.4% [15][25] 3. Wealth Management Product Net Value Tracking - The annualized yield for cash management products in May 2024 was 1.90%, down 14 basis points from the previous month, while fixed income products yielded 3.30%, down 15 basis points [28][29] - The number of wealth management products with a net value below par slightly decreased, with 1,525 products (2.59%) below par as of May 2024 [29][34] 4. Industry Dynamics - Regulatory authorities are seeking opinions on the new rating methods for wealth management companies, which will prioritize quality over scale, reflecting a shift towards high-quality development in the banking sector [4][37] - The cessation of manual interest supplementation continues to influence the market, leading to a shift of deposits into wealth management products [4][37]