研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 第 1 页 第 2 页 航运巨头马士基还发出警告称，红海风波的蔓延将导致今年二季度远东-欧洲之间的集装 箱运输能力将减少约 15%-20%。马士基表示，红海局势的影响正在扩大，并继续造成整 个行业的混乱。另外，一季度受益于出口需求回升叠加地缘冲突反复，航运港口板块盈 利向好。 三、后市大势研判 | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 面的牛市或许仍需等待，但不影响 A 股修复行情的延续，震荡回升或是主基调，结构性 | | 机会仍重于总量，市场仍处于操作区间，投资者可逢低配置，踏准板块个股轮动节奏。 | | 另外，我们反复提醒，尽量规避 ST 股、垃圾股及问题股。 | | 从结果看，周一沪深三大指数大涨后，周二出现分化，周三集体调整，周四继续 | 上行，因此本周以来市场震荡回升的格局也符合我们的预判。目 ...

金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 4 月 18 日 星期四 第 1 页 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 尤其是小盘绩差股。主营业务缺乏竞争力、伪成长的中小市值个股及大部分 ST 股将继 | | 续被边缘化，翻身的机会比较渺茫，投资者尽量规避；对于有核心竞争力的，未来具备 | | 业绩加持的个股调整后有望再度上行。这波微盘股的集体杀跌中，部分成长性高的绩优 | | 小盘股也被错杀，后市需要投资者精挑细选。 | | 二是低空经济概念股走强。消息面上，有关低空经济的利好陆续发布。据苏州新 | | 闻微信公众号，4 月 18 日，苏州将召开低空经济发展推进大会，会上将发布一系列政策 | | 举措，为一批相关机构揭牌和授牌集中签约一批基金项目和建设项目并对苏州低空经济 | | 应用场景进行推介，从而推进苏州低空经济高质量发展。此外，工业和信息化部等四部 | | 门近日联合印发《通用航空装备创新应用实施方案（ 2024—2030 年）》，提出到 ...

金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 4 月 19 日 星期五 第 1 页 第 2 页 三、后市大势研判 在新"国九条"、"分红不达标将被 ST"、"严格执行退市制度"等政策的指引下， 预计未来市场分化是不可避免的。操作上，采取不同的策略。一方面，随着后期政策的 逐步落地以及具体的实施，高景气度、高 ROE、高股息优质龙头企业有望成为市场的共 识，也或成为资金追逐的焦点；另一方面，"问题股"依旧规避。尤其是基本面较差、 多次亏损以及常年不分红等相关上市公司，或逐步被边缘化；最后，部分成长性高的绩 优小盘股有望脱颖而出，需要投资者精挑细选。 第 3 页 第 4 页 研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | 大盘 3100 点得而复失，后市个股难免分化，操作上采取不同策略 一、周 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a downward trend, with the overall market sentiment being weak and the trading volume shrinking. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3019.47 points, down 14.78 points, a decline of 0.49% [2][4] - The report highlights that the market is influenced by external factors, including the U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, which has dampened the prospects for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] Sector Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold, have shown strong performance, with gold futures prices breaking through 570 yuan per gram. This surge is attributed to increased geopolitical tensions and a decline in the credibility of the dollar-based monetary system [2][4] - The engineering machinery sector has seen significant gains, driven by government initiatives aimed at promoting large-scale equipment upgrades across various industries, with expected investment growth of over 25% by 2027 compared to 2023 [4][5] - The report notes that the coal and steel prices have rebounded, positively impacting the Producer Price Index (PPI), which remains below expectations but is expected to stabilize due to government measures [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that investors should focus on sectors with strong earnings potential, particularly in April, as many companies will report their quarterly results. It emphasizes the importance of tracking companies that exceed earnings expectations [6][7] - The report also mentions the potential for a rebound in the new energy sector, particularly in lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind energy, as the demand for these technologies continues to grow despite recent volatility [5][6] Regulatory Environment - The introduction of the third "National Nine Articles" is highlighted, focusing on stricter listing regulations, continuous supervision, and increased delisting measures. This reform is expected to have a positive long-term impact on the market [6][9] - The report emphasizes the need for companies with low or no dividend payouts to be cautious, as new regulations may restrict major shareholders from reducing their stakes [9]

研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 第 1 页 第 2 页 1 月初的年度策略报告我们提醒的中字头、国企改革、低估值高股息股的投资机会，从 资机会。我们认为，低利率的环境中，能够提供稳定的高股息的红利股难能可贵。从行 预计国有垄断的基础类行业将受到青睐——电力、水务、燃气、公路及上游资源品等领 除低供给壁垒的行业、处于产业下行周期的资产，重点选择必需品属性、壁垒及护城河 表现强势。 一是油气开采及航运股上涨。消息面上，中东地缘局势升级，按以往经验，往往 会因油价上涨推升通胀预期，以及避险情绪升温或刺激金价的上涨。另外，胡塞武装偶 尔袭击红海商船会对欧线、原油造成一定的影响。其中对短期运费会产生较大的影响， 近期各大船舶公司新一轮提涨运价逐步落地，进一步带动市场情绪升温。 第 3 页 格执行退市制度的意见》（以下简称《退市意见》），通过严格退市标准，加大对"僵尸空 退市公司投资者保护。由此，因为市场"误读"，周一周二微盘股暴跌。不过，证监会 原因被 ST，并不会导致退市；满足一定条件后，就可以申 ...

研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 【A股大势研判】 | | | 财报季尾端规避绩差股，耐心等待市场企稳 | | | 一、周一市场综述 | | | 周一晨早短信提醒，上周市场走势跌宕起伏，板块个股分化，大盘 3100 | 点得而复 | | 失，中小指数表现不佳。展望后市，市场要想持续性走强也并非易事。一是国内经济修 | | | 复不强。虽然一季度经济数据超预期，但在房地产弱势下，结构问题仍在；二是海外地 | | | 缘冲突加剧，市场避险情绪升级，全球市场整体调整下， A | 股或不会独善其身；三是市 | | 场"一九行情"下难以形成合力；四是海 ...

研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 第 2 页 第 4 页 第 6 页 第 7 页 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | | 两市成交额重回万亿， A 股修复行情有望延续 | | | 一、上周五市场回顾 | | | | 周五晨早短信提醒，周四沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，成交萎缩下，市场活跃度下降。 | | 4 月份还有 3 | 个交易日，随着业绩公布的逐步接近尾声，业绩干扰对股价和市场产生影 | | 响总体进入尾声。昨天有 ...

第 3 页 断夯实经济的修复。4 月 30 日，在新"国九条"对加强退市监管的指引下，沪深证券交 易所修订完善并正式发布相关退市规则。我们认为，主营业务缺乏竞争力、伪成长的中 小市值个股及大部分 ST 股将继续被边缘化，翻身的机会比较渺茫，投资者尽量规避。随 着成交的放量，市场信心逐步回暖，A 股修复行情仍有望延续，结构性机会仍重于总量， 全面性的牛市或许仍需等待。另外，五一假期，港股大涨+人民币升值+美联储降息预期 升温的多重利好刺激下，节后 A 股有望上涨。仅供参考。 金点策略晨报—每周报告 2024 年 5 月 6 日 星期一 | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 煤炭、电力、银行、酿酒与医药等板块集体拉升，助力大盘再创反转新高，不过，周一 | | 大涨的房地产及券商出现调整。午后，三大指数继续弱势震荡。 | | 全天看，行业方面，化学制药、中药、家电、生物制品、包装材料、公用事业、 | | 食品饮料 ...

1.我国内需走弱程度超预期； 2.美国宏观经济下滑幅度超预期。 1.英大证券 2022 年度宏观经济与大类资产 配置：5.5%引领投资与金融，油铜冲高，金 猪蓄势，债强股不弱（20220119） 2.英大证券 2021 年度宏观经济与大类资产 配置：经济"上"，货币"稳"，有色、原 油、A 股"优"（20210111） 报告概要： 四、落实好大规模设备更新助推制造业投资增速，消费增速还面临一定制 约因素； | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 一、生产力与生产关系之间的矛盾，需要通过改革与开放来解决 ........................................................................................... ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the Chinese economy shows resilience, with GDP growth expected to stabilize around 5% in 2024, supported by proactive fiscal policies and a focus on stabilizing the real estate market [5][6][9] - The liquidity in the market is expected to remain reasonable and abundant, with a potential for further easing of financing costs [3][17] Stock Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the valuation of blue-chip stocks (CSI 300) remains historically low, suggesting potential for upward adjustment as corporate earnings recover [3][4] - Demand for stocks is influenced by various factors, including personal investor funds, public and private fund flows, and foreign capital inflows, with expectations of increased net inflows from northbound capital as economic recovery strengthens [3][4][5] IPO and Financing Environment - The report notes a significant slowdown in IPO activities, with stricter regulatory measures in place to enhance the quality of listed companies, leading to a decrease in the number of companies applying for IPOs [3][4] - The refinancing environment is also tightening, with a noticeable reduction in the scale of refinancing activities and stricter regulations on share reductions by major shareholders [3][4] Economic Indicators - The report discusses the PMI data, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing activity, with expectations for a rebound in manufacturing PMI as economic conditions improve [6][9] - Consumer price index (CPI) trends show a low inflation environment, with expectations for gradual recovery in price levels as economic activity picks up [7][9] Monetary Policy Outlook - The report outlines a monetary policy stance that is expected to remain flexible and moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [17][19] - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized as crucial for balancing short-term economic growth and long-term structural optimization [17][19]