Market Overview - The A-share market is showing an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points, driven by sectors such as coal, insurance, and banking recovering from lows, while technology sectors like storage chips and semiconductors are experiencing significant gains [2][9] - The market's main theme is driven by policy expectations and performance verification, with a focus on technology growth sectors as the core engine, shifting from speculative trading to performance-based selection as quarterly reports are released [2][9] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector has shown strong performance, with a projected growth of over 15% in the global semiconductor market by 2025, driven by increasing demand for AI and high-performance computing [6] - The securities sector is also on the rise, supported by improved trading volumes and favorable economic conditions, with ongoing policy reforms and liquidity support enhancing the sector's growth potential [7][8] Investment Strategy - For short-term defense, focus on dividend assets and financial sectors with clear performance improvement expectations [3][10] - For medium-term offensive strategies, consider low-entry opportunities in the AI industry chain, semiconductors, and robotics, emphasizing companies with actual performance or future earnings support [3][10]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 邮箱：zhenggang@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 积极回应政策利多 沪指创年内新高 分析师：郑罡 执业证书编号：S0990511010001 电话：0755-83000291 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 在中美贸易博弈升级，部分西方国家恶意篡夺中企海外合法资产等外部复杂 环境背景下，A 股对国内有理有据的正面反制给予积极估计，低估值红利资产回 暖稳定市场，芯片、光模块、新能源领域龙头个股活跃，上周市场整体走势稳健。 展望后市，中美贸易谈判再度展开，相关不确定因素影响犹在，或对短期市 场走势形成扰动；然美联储降息，中美利差收窄预期或促进海外资金回流，带动 人民币汇率走强，利多 A 股估值继续回升，低估值蓝筹股仍将承担稳定市场职责； 长期来看，推进科技自立自强利多国内高科技制造企业，具有核心技术的优质公 司仍有望吸引资金低位关注。操作上，建议兼顾防御与成长，可关注银行、煤炭 等红利股回暖走势，及半导体芯片、光模块、固态电池等成长行业回撤配置机会。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 每 周 投 资 早 参 研报内容 总量研究 【A 股 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 分析师：郑罡 执业证书编号：S0990511010001 电话：0755-83000291 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 2025 年 10 月 24 日 邮箱：zhenggang@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 蓝筹向好 缓解大盘回吐压力 国内银行结售汇差额再现峰值水平反映海外资金回流现象，A 股低估红利板 块持续回升带动股指收复跌势。市场交投平稳状态下大盘依然保持相对强势，得 益于配置高股息资产的中长期资金持股稳定性较强，增强 A 股发展韧性，减少异 常波动的负面影响。 在外部不确定性影响下，A 股高估值品种活跃行情或仍将受限，投资者或谨 慎评估贸易谈判的相关影响；反而受外部影响较少的 A 股蓝筹股有望受益国内经 济发展政策利多和海外资金回流带来估值上行预期，建议增加低估补涨蓝筹股配 置，降低高估无业绩支撑题材股持仓规模。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 研报内容 总量研究 【A 股大势研判】 一、周四市场综述 周四市场呈现先抑后扬的震荡走势，成交量变化不大，低估值蓝筹股反弹带动市场止跌回稳。隔夜美股出现调整 行情，而港股恒生科技指数也有连续 ...

Core Views - The market is experiencing a narrow consolidation near its peak, with increased investor caution. Low-valuation blue-chip stocks are expected to gradually lift the market's focus, while high-valuation stocks face performance tests and shareholder reduction pressures, indicating a potential narrowing of high-valuation stock activity [1][7][8] - Attention should be paid to the effects of economic stabilization policies on the A-share market, which may provide positive impacts [1][7][8] - Continuous monitoring of precious metal price fluctuations is necessary due to their spillover risks to other financial markets [1][7][8] A-share Market Overview - On Wednesday, the market showed a narrow consolidation trend, with short-term rebound momentum weakening. Despite optimistic macro policy expectations, external funds remain cautious about future policy strength and fundamental improvements, leading to a lack of significant participation from outside investors [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76 points, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 12996.61 points. The total trading volume was 16903 billion [3] Sector Performance - The banking sector continued to rise, with a year-to-date increase of 8.13%, ranking 22nd among A-share industry sectors. The banking sector's performance has been relatively stable, attracting long-term funds during periods of market uncertainty [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector faced a pullback, declining by 1.36% on Wednesday, influenced by the drop in international precious metal prices. However, the sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 67.39%, the highest among industry sectors [5][6] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its narrow consolidation, with low-valuation blue-chip stocks playing a stabilizing role. Investors are advised to adjust their portfolio structures by increasing allocations to dividend assets [1][7][8]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 邮箱：zhenggang@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 继续回升 市场量能有所增加 分析师：郑罡 执业证书编号：S0990511010001 电话：0755-83000291 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 自 8 月下旬以来，A 股大盘上行动力趋弱，高估值品种成交活跃度降低，杠 杆资金参与其中投机交易或受到限制，低估值板块则逐步趋稳，缓解高估值调整 压力所可能导致的波动风险。除了市场结构高估风险之外，外部不确定性对投资 者预期影响仍在。 根据国家统计局公布的三季度宏观数据显示，三季度 GDP 增速为 4.8%，虽有 小幅放缓却仍表现出发展韧性。扩大内需、发展新质生产力或仍为下阶段经济政 策主要作用方面，而国内统一大市场建设，反内卷推动供需平衡，缓解通胀下行 压力，提升制造业盈利预期，预计相关上游周期行业仍将受益价格回暖趋势，中 游制造行业则需关注扩内需持续发力影响。 市场再度回升至前期高点，后市量能决定行情拓展空间，预计短期市场仍以 震荡走势为主，不建议激进追涨通信、电子等高估值板块，关注煤炭、银行等补 涨板块在 ...

Overall Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback last Friday, returning to the low opening levels of October 13, but rebounded on Monday, alleviating short-term adjustment pressure [1][7] - Since late August, the upward momentum of the A-share market has weakened, with high valuation stocks seeing reduced trading activity, while low valuation sectors have stabilized, mitigating potential volatility risks from high valuation adjustments [1][7] - External uncertainties continue to impact investor sentiment, but recent positive news regarding Sino-US trade negotiations may help improve market concerns [1][7] Economic Indicators - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP growth rate for the third quarter was 4.8%, showing resilience despite a slight slowdown [2][8] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces are expected to play a major role in future economic strategies, with a focus on balancing supply and demand to alleviate deflationary pressures [2][8] - The People's Bank of China announced that the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a stable short-term outlook for bank stocks [2][8] Sector Performance - The telecommunications sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 55.36%, driven by developments in artificial intelligence and domestic adjustments in chip supply due to export controls from developed countries [5] - The coal sector has also strengthened, with a year-to-date increase of 3.23% and a recent 20-day increase of 13.46%, benefiting from supply constraints and seasonal demand as winter approaches [6] - Overall, the market showed more gainers than losers, with significant trading volumes across various indices, indicating a recovery in market enthusiasm [4] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its bullish trend with potential fluctuations, as the A-share market's structural high valuation risks remain, but low valuation sectors are stabilizing [7][8] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and narrowing domestic and international interest rate differentials may lead to a trend of RMB appreciation, attracting international capital to increase allocations in Chinese assets [8][9] - It is recommended to focus on cyclical sectors benefiting from anti-involution measures and undervalued bank stocks in the near term [8][9]

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline with shrinking trading volume, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they await clarity on trade policies [2][12][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.95%, closing at 3839.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw declines of 3.04% and 3.36% respectively [6][7] - The decline was attributed to several factors, including a drop in trading volume below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, concerns over the performance of the technology sector amidst the earnings season, and uncertainties related to tariff negotiations [2][12][15] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and public utilities showed strength, while technology stocks faced significant selling pressure [3][8] - The precious metals sector saw a notable increase due to rising international gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [9][10] - Coal stocks also performed well, supported by anticipated improvements in economic conditions and potential policy measures in the fourth quarter [10] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a dual approach, focusing on defensive assets in the short term while positioning for growth in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and robotics in the medium term [3][13] - Emphasis is placed on selecting stocks with solid earnings or future earnings potential, while avoiding technology stocks that have risen significantly without performance support [3][13] - There is a recommendation to monitor cyclical sectors and consumer demand for potential rebounds, particularly in undervalued core assets or blue-chip stocks [3][13]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a cautious sentiment among investors, with trading volumes declining significantly, reflecting a wait-and-see approach as they await clarity on trade policies [2][8] - Bank stocks have shown independent strength, driven by increased risk aversion, policy expectations for economic stabilization, and attractive high dividend yields, making them appealing to long-term investors [2][8] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the fourth quarter, suggesting that the upward trend in A-shares may continue, albeit with reduced momentum and increased volatility [2][8] Market Overview - On the previous trading day, the total trading volume was just over 2 trillion yuan, indicating cautious new capital inflow, with major indices showing a mixed performance [5][6] - The banking sector, along with coal and shipping stocks, performed well, while sectors like precious metals and wind power equipment faced declines [7][8] - The report highlights that the market's overall risk appetite has decreased, leading to a strong performance in high-dividend sectors like banking and utilities [7][8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a dual approach to investment: focusing on defensive assets such as banks and utilities while also targeting growth sectors like AI, semiconductors, and robotics during market dips [3][9] - It emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities, particularly in cyclical sectors and domestic consumption, as potential areas for investment [3][9]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully reclaiming the 3900-point mark, reflecting a positive medium-term outlook despite short-term volatility [2][8][10] - The overall market volume has significantly decreased, with a total trading volume of approximately 2 trillion yuan, indicating cautious sentiment among new investors [2][8][10] Market Overview - On Wednesday, the three major indices opened high but experienced a pullback before rising again in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.22% [4][5] - The sectors that performed well included aviation, automotive, chemical pharmaceuticals, and electric grid equipment, while shipping ports and small metals saw declines [4][5] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly chemical pharmaceuticals and CROs, is expected to have configuration value due to its previous underperformance and the aging population driving demand [6] - The robotics industry has shown strong growth, with significant increases in stock prices since January 7, 2025, driven by robust internal growth and supportive government policies [7] Future Market Outlook - The report maintains that the A-share market's upward trend may continue into the fourth quarter, although the momentum may weaken and volatility may increase [2][8] - Investors are advised to balance short-term defensive strategies with medium-term positioning, focusing on dividend assets like banks and public utilities, while also targeting growth sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robotics [9][10]

Core Insights - The report highlights the short-term volatility in the A-share market, indicating a potential for continued fluctuations due to external uncertainties and internal structural contradictions [2][3][11] - It emphasizes the divergence between individual stocks and indices, with a notable pressure from profit-taking among investors who have accumulated significant gains since April [5][10] - The upcoming clarity on trade policies, particularly around November 1, is identified as a critical point for reducing market uncertainties and potentially stabilizing the market [3][11] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the A-share market showed resilience, but concerns remain regarding the lack of enthusiasm among participants, as evidenced by a significant disparity between stock performance and index movements [5][6] - The trading volume on Monday was reported at 2.3 trillion, reflecting a cautious stance from new capital entering the market [5][11] - The indices experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices faced declines, indicating a selective rally driven by a few heavyweight stocks [6][7] Sector Analysis - Defensive sectors such as banking and utilities are recommended for attention due to their high dividend yields, which may become attractive as the market adjusts [8][10] - Consumer sectors, particularly the liquor industry, are noted for their strength, with domestic consumption expected to drive economic recovery in 2025 [9][10] - The report suggests focusing on the AI industry chain, semiconductors, and robotics as potential growth areas amidst the current market corrections, presenting opportunities for long-term investments [3][10]