Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in this round of rebound, despite a trading volume just above 1 trillion, indicating a low level of activity [2][4][9] - Factors contributing to the market's resilience include policy support and capital backing, with state-owned funds increasing their holdings in ETFs, alleviating liquidity concerns among investors [2][9] - Market sentiment is recovering, with structural differentiation observed, as sectors like domestic consumption (duty-free, food and beverage), defensive sectors (banking, gold), and self-sufficient fields (military industry, semiconductors) attract investor interest [2][9] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector experienced significant gains, driven by heightened market risk aversion due to global tariff issues, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [6] - Digital economy stocks were active, with sectors such as remote work and digital taxation showing promise, as China's digital economy is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years [6] - The robotics industry also saw substantial growth, with notable increases in stock prices since early January, supported by strong internal growth momentum and favorable government policies [7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that investors should focus on three main lines for low-cost positioning: self-sufficient fields (semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, food and beverage), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises, public utilities) [10] - The upcoming important meetings at the end of April are anticipated to provide further policy direction, which could act as a catalyst for mid-term market trends [4][10] - Despite the current rebound, the sustainability of this trend is questioned due to insufficient trading volume and the potential for adjustments in stocks lacking performance support during the earnings disclosure period [3][9]

2025 年 4 月 21 日 市场成交萎缩，在观望和等待 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 【A 股大势研判】 上周五晨报提醒，尽管沪指 8 连阳，但资金观望情绪依旧浓厚，成交持续萎 缩下，市场量价背离。市场走势如我们预期，上周五上午市场下跌，盘面上，6G 等概念股大涨。午后券商及地产股拉升，带动指数回升。收盘三大指数涨跌不一， 全天维持缩量震荡的格局。 上周指数出现分化，沪指周涨幅 1.19%，而深成指、创指周跌幅分别为 0.54 %、 0.64%。主要原因可能是银行等板块持续护盘，带动沪指上涨，而题材股大面积 下跌，成为拖累深市指数的主因。 两市成交额连续两天跌破万亿大关，说明市场观望情绪较浓。市场究竟在担 忧什么？又在等待什么呢？ 一方面，国外方面，市场依旧担忧关税政策的扰动。美国关税政策反复，政 策不确定性仍压制风险偏好。而近期美股科技股持续波动，成长股估值有压力， 或给国内创业板等带来承压预期。 另外，国内主要是国内业绩验证与政策博弈。4 月 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 总量视角 2025 年 4 月 18 日 大盘 8 连阳伴随成交萎缩，市场在担忧等待什么？ 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 【A 股大势研判】 周四晨报提醒，周三沪指成功翻红实现 7 连阳，而深成指、创业板指跌幅收 窄。尽管周三尾盘市场强势拉升，但此前修复性行情之后，两市全天成交维持低 位，板块个股分化，市场分歧明显，不排除后市仍有再次震荡幅回踩的可能。对 于投资者来说，可逢低布局三条主线：一是自主可控领域；二是内需消费；三是 高股息板块。 市场走势如我们预期， 周四市场窄幅震荡，沪深三大指数涨跌不一，两市 成交进一步萎缩并跌破万亿大关，显示市场交投热情相对低迷。盘面上看，内需 和自主可控成为 A 股表现最强的两大主线。内需主线方面，旅游酒店板块大涨， 地产链、食品饮料等板块也大涨；自主可控主线方面，光刻机及半导体板块大涨。 整体看，尽管沪指 8 连阳，但资金观望情绪依旧浓厚，成交持续萎缩下，市 场量价的背离，观望情绪较浓。市场究竟在担忧 ...

Core Views - The A-share market is experiencing mixed performance with shrinking trading volume, indicating potential volatility ahead, particularly due to liquidity tightening affecting high-valuation sectors [3][9][10] - Despite overall market weakness, certain sectors are showing resilience, particularly consumer stocks, banking, and companies with positive earnings forecasts for Q1 [3][9][10] - The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's tariff policies is creating uncertainty for the A-share market and economic fundamentals, necessitating close monitoring of trade negotiations [3][10] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the three major indices in the A-share market showed mixed results, with total trading volume falling below 1.1 trillion yuan. The market sentiment is generally weak, with a notable decrease in trading activity during the recent rebound [5][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3267.66 points, up 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.27% to 9858.10 points. The ChiNext Index also saw a slight decline of 0.13% [6][11] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly in the beauty, cosmetics, and food and beverage sectors, are showing strong performance, driven by government initiatives to boost domestic consumption [7][9] - Banking stocks are providing support to the index, with expectations of interest rate cuts and increased capital inflows enhancing their appeal as stable dividend-paying investments [8][9] - The report highlights the potential for agricultural stocks to benefit from rising prices due to tariff policies, suggesting a focus on this sector moving forward [7] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider three main lines for low-cost positioning: self-sufficient sectors (semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, food and beverages), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises, public utilities) [3][10] - The report anticipates increased fiscal and monetary policy support in response to the economic targets set for 2025, which may bolster market confidence in the medium term [4][10]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 4 月 15 日 美国关税反复无常，逢低布局三条主线 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一沪深三大指数继续反弹，板块个股涨多跌少，盘面上看，海南概念股、 体育产业等领涨。市场情绪延续回暖趋势，但成交额整体萎缩下，回升情绪也在 边际递减。当前关税的实质性影响以及市场基本面仍有隐忧。 特朗普政府在关税问题上的反复无常也令人头疼。短期对 A 股市场及经济基 本面造成扰动及不确定性，预计国内政策加码对冲的力度也会加大。后市密切关 注贸易谈判的情况。若双方能够通过谈判缓解紧张局势，市场信心将得到较大提 振，反之则可能继续承压。对于投资者来说，可逢低布局三条主线：一是自主可 控领域（半导体、AI 算力等）；二是内需消费（医药、食品饮料等）；三是高股 息板块（央国企、公用事业等）。 后续还要关注国内政策的对冲力度。考虑两会中设定的 2025 年的经济目标， 预计后续财政、货币政策都会加大刺激力度。中期支撑基础 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 每 周 投 资 早 参 2025 年 4 月 14 日 连续反弹后隐忧仍在，短期波动不改中期慢牛格局，后市密切关注贸易 谈判情况 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当 4 月 7 日 A 股市场大跌后，自 4 月 8 日以来，A 股已实现四连阳，主要有 以下几个方面的利好：一是国家队的发力以及国内政策的释放下，有效缓解市场 流动性压力，共同刺激指数持续反弹；二是特朗普政府暂缓"对等关税"引发的全 球市场情绪修复。4 月 10 日，特朗普宣布对不采取报复行动的国家实施 90 天关 税暂缓，海外股市反弹，A 股也受提振；三是国产替代逻辑强化。面对外部压力， 国内产业自主可控进程加速推进。中物联公共采购分会发布助力国内经济稳定发 展的倡议书，中国半导体行业协会也出台半导体产品 "原产地"认定规则。在政策 推动下，上周五 A 股半导体板块集体大涨，并带动整个科技股板块走强，国产替 代逻辑成为再次提振市场反弹的重要主线。 那么，短期情绪恢复良好之下，此前的下跌是否结束，这波调整又是否见底 呢？我们认为，由于此轮市场的下跌，更多的还是情绪导致的短期抛售，市场一 度流动性紧张之际，随着国家队 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 4 月 11 日 后市密切关注贸易谈判情况 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 除了近期晨报中提醒的几大利好之外，周四沪深三大指数集体上涨，可能还 源于特朗普政府暂缓"对等关税"引发的全球市场情绪修复。4 月 10 日，特朗普 宣布对不采取报复行动的国家实施 90 天关税暂缓，直接推动美股大涨。亚太股 市接力上涨，A 股也集体上行。 金点策略晨报 大盘已经收复 3200 点，短期情绪恢复良好之下，此前的下跌是否结束，这 波调整又是否见底呢？我们认为，由于此轮市场的下跌，更多的还是情绪导致的 短期抛售，市场一度流动性紧张之际，随着国家队出手缓解流动性问题，并且在 多项政策的协同跟进下，指数这波抛售或告一段落。 不过，当前关税的实质性影响以及市场基本面仍有隐忧。企业盈利尚未全面 改善，担忧仍有延续。此外，外部扰动未消除。后市密切关注贸易谈判的情况， 如果关税谈判进展顺利，出口复苏预期强的行业可能迎来反弹 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 不过，当前关税的实质性影响以及市场基本面仍有隐忧。企业盈利尚未全面 改善，担忧仍有延续。此外，外部扰动未消除。美国加征关税的潜在影响及美股 波动仍可能影响 A 股风险偏好。 后续要关注国内政策的对冲力度。考虑两会中设定的 2025 年的经济目标， 预计后续财政、货币政策都会加大刺激力度。中期支撑基础和提振动力依旧下， 我们仍看好市场中期向好的趋势。因此，短期波动不改中期慢牛格局。接下来又 该如何应对呢？操作上，首先，规避出口关联度高的行业；其次，短期聚焦政策 红利与防御性资产。政策受益方面：军工、半导体、农业等板块仍具弹性。而防 御性配置上，消费、公用事业等低估值高股息资产；最后，中长期布局盈利改善 与成长逻辑。短线高手可高抛低吸。 分析师：惠祥凤 2025 年 4 月 10 日 四大利好助力 A 股反弹，但外部扰动仍未消除，高抛低吸或是占优策略 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三沪深三大指数继续反弹，半导体板块及军工概念股大涨。主要有以下几 个方面的利好：一是国家队紧急驰援。中央汇金等国家队迅速出手。通过 ETF 增 持，给市场注入流动性；二是上市 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 对于 A 股市场来说，短期对出口链影响较大。从行业角度来看，出口关联度 高的行业无疑将受到最直接且显著的影响。风险偏好方面,"对等关税"使得避 险情绪升温，资金流向或发生改变。在 A 股市场，资金流向或出现变化。一方面， 资金涌入避险板块，另一方面，资金从高风险、不确定性较高的板块流出，导致 部分科技股、成长股遭受抛售。市场整体观望情绪浓厚。上周四的市场也验证了 上述逻辑，上周四沪深三大指数集体调整。盘面上看，大消费、贵金属及电力等 防御性板块走强，出口占比较高的板块个股表现不佳，科技股也出现大面积下跌。 每 周 投 资 早 参 2025 年 4 月 7 日 美国"对等关税"落地，对 A 股有哪些影响？地量是否见地价？ 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当地时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税"的 行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征 收更高关税。具体关税税率可查阅相关新闻报道。 商务部新闻发言人就美方宣布"对等关税"发表谈话：中方对此坚决反对， 并将坚决采取反制措施维护 ...

Core Views - Recent market adjustments are attributed to a divergence in market styles, with high-flying technology stocks experiencing volatility while undervalued large-cap stocks perform relatively well [2][15][16] - The market is currently in a phase of cautious sentiment, influenced by factors such as tightening liquidity, upcoming earnings reports, and external uncertainties like U.S. tariffs on China [3][16][19] Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.40%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.75%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.12% over the past week [7][19] - The total trading volume across the two exchanges was 11,190 billion, indicating a significant reduction in market activity [6][19] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector has shown resilience, with pharmaceutical stocks gaining traction due to their low valuations and potential for recovery in 2025 [8][9] - Precious metals have seen renewed interest as investors seek safe-haven assets amid rising global trade tensions and declining inflation rates [9][10] - Chemical stocks experienced fluctuations, with some segments like titanium dioxide seeing price increases, but overall performance remains mixed [10][11] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its phase of adjustment, with potential opportunities for low-cost acquisitions as conditions stabilize [4][17] - Short-term pressures on small-cap stocks are anticipated, while large-cap stocks with stable dividends may continue to attract investment [4][17][18] - The industrial machinery sector is highlighted as a promising area for investment, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing manufacturing capabilities [14][18]