英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 9 月 9 日 A 股市场内部分化，结构性机会持续涌现，踏准板块轮动节奏 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 在上周五大反攻的基础上，周一沪深两市延续回升势头小幅上涨，但市场内 部分化依旧显著。算力龙头持续大跌，直接拖累创业板指。不过，资金从算力板 块流出后并未离场，而是快速寻找新的投资方向，能源金属、人行机器人相关概 念崛起，除此之外，航运港口、医疗器械、化肥等板块也展现出较好的上涨动能， 成为承接流出资金的重要领域，市场热点切换节奏加快，结构性机会持续涌现。 尽管当前市场情绪有所提振，指数存在继续反弹的可能，但需要注意的是， 此次调整是牛市启动以来的首次显著调整，结合历史牛市行情中调整周期的规 律，短期仍可能出现震荡反复，属于牛市途中的正常休整。 从中长期来看，在流动性宽松基调未变、经济回升向好趋势明确、产业政策 持续发力的背景下，市场在经历调整与风格切换后，仍具备继续上行的基础和动 力，此次调 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong rebound last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully returning to the 3800-point mark and the ChiNext Index soaring by 6.55% [2][5][19] - The market showed two main characteristics: a comprehensive rise in the new energy sector and a return of funds to technology stocks, with significant rebounds in core stocks like CPO and PCB [2][17] Policy and Economic Environment - The policy environment remains favorable, with the Ministry of Commerce indicating that measures to expand service consumption will be introduced in September [2][18] - The liquidity environment continues to be loose, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery, as evidenced by the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August, indicating an acceleration in production activities [2][18] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Despite the strong rebound, the volume was somewhat reduced, indicating a cautious investor sentiment and a lack of willingness to chase higher prices [3][18] - The market is expected to experience some fluctuations as it digests profit-taking and position-clearing pressures, with the ability to release volume being a key variable for determining the height of the rebound [3][18] Sector Performance - The new energy sector saw significant gains, with strong performances in battery, energy metals, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment [7][8] - The precious metals sector also experienced a rise, driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and increased demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [9] - Consumer stocks showed temporary strength, supported by new rounds of consumption vouchers being issued in various cities [10] - The industrial mother machine concept stocks remained active, benefiting from government policies aimed at promoting high-end manufacturing [11] Investment Strategy - For companies with strong fundamentals and clear industry prospects, short-term adjustments present opportunities for low-cost positioning [3][18] - It is advisable to reduce allocations in sectors that have seen excessive price increases and high valuations, while increasing exposure to undervalued, high-dividend assets [3][18]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the recent market adjustment is a result of multiple factors, including technical correction needs after significant price increases, profit-taking by investors from high-valuation sectors, and the challenge of sustaining high trading volumes without continued capital inflow [1][4][11] - The short-term market may continue to experience high-level fluctuations, and investors are advised to wait for stabilization signals [1][11] - Despite the short-term adjustments, the underlying support from policy, liquidity, and economic fundamentals remains strong [2][11] Policy and Economic Fundamentals - The policy environment is expected to remain favorable, with the Ministry of Commerce planning to introduce measures to expand service consumption in September [2][11] - The liquidity environment is maintained at a loose level, supporting market activities [2][11] - Economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI for August reported at 49.4%, indicating a month-on-month improvement and a faster pace of business activity expansion [2][11] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, including retail and food and beverage sectors, showed resilience and strength during the market downturn, driven by new consumption voucher initiatives in various cities [7][11] - The securities sector has been highlighted as a potential area for investment, with expectations of performance improvement due to favorable policies and market reforms [8][11] - The photovoltaic equipment sector is also noted for its active performance, supported by ongoing global demand for renewable energy solutions [9][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive approach or take a break from active trading during this adjustment period [1][12] - For those looking to buy on dips, it is recommended to wait until the market shows signs of stabilization and to focus on low-valuation sectors with strong earnings support [12][11] - Attention should be directed towards blue-chip stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustments and possess stable fundamentals, as they may attract renewed investor interest [12][11]

Core Views - The market is experiencing a short-term adjustment, influenced by high-level stocks' pullback, which affects market sentiment and leads to increased differentiation among sectors and stocks [1][4][9] - Short-term market movements are expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations at high levels, with a recommendation for defensive strategies or a pause in trading [2][10] - Long-term trends show a bullish arrangement in weekly and monthly K-line charts, indicating that investors should not overly fear short-term adjustments, as they may facilitate mid-term upward breakthroughs [2][9] Market Overview - On Wednesday, the market opened high but subsequently declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3813.56 points, down 44.57 points, a drop of 1.16%, and total trading volume reaching 23641 billion [5][11] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472 points, down 81.84 points, a decrease of 0.65%, while the ChiNext Index rose to 2899.37 points, up 27.15 points, an increase of 0.95% [5][11] Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals sector has seen continuous growth, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to higher demand for gold as an inflation hedge [6][7] - **Photovoltaic Equipment**: The photovoltaic equipment sector is expected to rebound due to ongoing global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality and supportive policies from the government, making it a sector to watch in the second half of 2025 [7] - **Gaming Sector**: The gaming sector has shown resilience with recent approvals for numerous game licenses, indicating a positive outlook for the industry as it adapts to technological advancements [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive approach, waiting for the market to stabilize before making new investments, particularly in undervalued sectors with strong fundamentals [2][10] - Attention should be directed towards low-valuation defensive sectors and blue-chip stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustments and possess stable fundamentals [10]

Core Views - The report indicates that after a brief technical pullback, the market is likely to maintain a high-level narrow range oscillation, suggesting a defensive approach in operations [2][10]. Market Overview - On Tuesday, the three major indices in the A-share market collectively adjusted, with defensive sectors like gold and banking stocks strengthening, while most technology stocks, including CPO, semiconductors, and communications, experienced pullbacks [4][10]. - The market's upward momentum has weakened recently due to diverging market sentiment and funds, leading to short-term resistance for the indices [2][10]. - Despite the adjustments, the overall market still shows short-term profit-making potential, with high market sentiment, although sector and stock differentiation has intensified [2][10]. Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as gold and banking stocks have shown strong performance, while technology sectors like CPO and semiconductors have faced declines [4][10]. - The gold sector has been buoyed by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased investment demand [7][8]. - The industrial mother machine concept stocks have also seen significant gains, supported by favorable government policies and a strong performance in recent quarters [9]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a dynamic optimization of holdings, focusing on stocks with strong performance backed by earnings, while reducing exposure to stocks that have risen sharply without fundamental support [3][11]. - Attention should be directed towards undervalued sectors or defensive stocks with solid earnings support, as well as blue-chip stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustments [3][11].

Market Overview - The A-share market continues its upward trend, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing over 1%, both reaching new highs for the year [3][6] - The market is characterized by strong buying support following a quick recovery after a recent decline, indicating robust market sentiment [5][12] - Key sectors leading the gains include precious metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, suggesting a rotation in market focus [3][11] Sector Analysis Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and rising expectations for interest rate cuts in September [7] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from global central banks [7] - Despite the positive outlook, caution is advised against chasing prices after a year of significant increases [7] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, experienced a boost following the National Healthcare Security Administration's announcement of new drug listings [8] - The sector is viewed as having strong growth potential due to a favorable commercialization environment and the aging population driving demand [8] - Key areas for investment include innovative drugs, OTC traditional Chinese medicine, and medical services [8] Semiconductors - The semiconductor sector remains active, with a long-term positive outlook supported by national policy and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [9][10] - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund is expected to enhance the industry's upgrade and support domestic production [10] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that are leading in technology and can adapt quickly to industry changes [10] Optical Communication Modules - The optical communication module sector is anticipated to remain in a high-growth cycle, driven by advancements in AI computing and data center upgrades [11] - Investors should pay attention to leading companies and those with technological advantages in this space [11] Investment Strategy - A dynamic optimization of holdings is recommended, focusing on stocks with strong performance and solid fundamentals [4][12] - Caution is advised for stocks that have seen excessive gains without strong fundamental support, suggesting a reduction in exposure [4][12] - Attention should also be directed towards undervalued sectors with solid earnings support, particularly defensive stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustments [4][12]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is entering a phase of slow bull market, with a higher probability of market fluctuations after a period of rapid growth [2][5][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93 points, up 14.33 points, with a trading volume of 12.22 billion [6][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index reached new highs for the year, indicating strong market momentum [2][6] Sector Analysis Battery Sector - The battery sector saw significant gains, driven by strong performance in lithium battery-related stocks, with a focus on solid-state batteries and new energy vehicles [8][9] - The global push for carbon neutrality continues to drive demand for lithium, photovoltaic, wind power, and energy storage [9] Alcohol Sector - The alcohol sector is benefiting from domestic consumption recovery, with policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending [9][10] - The report highlights the potential of the "silver economy" and "self-consumption" trends among younger consumers [9] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector is experiencing upward momentum due to expectations of interest rate cuts and increased geopolitical tensions [10] - Factors such as central bank gold purchases and a weaker dollar are contributing to the bullish outlook for gold prices [10] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector remains a long-term investment opportunity, supported by national policies and increasing demand for AI and high-performance computing [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution trends and the potential for growth in the semiconductor industry [11] Communication Equipment Sector - The communication equipment sector is poised for growth with advancements in 5G and upcoming 6G technologies [12] - The integration of AI with communication technologies is expected to enhance data transmission efficiency [12] Optical Communication Modules - The optical communication module sector is likely to remain in a high prosperity cycle, driven by AI computing and data center upgrades [13][14] Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector - The rare earth sector is expected to see strategic value due to supply constraints and increasing demand [14] - Recent regulatory measures are likely to impact the supply dynamics of rare earth materials [14] Investment Strategy - The report suggests dynamic optimization of holdings, focusing on stocks with strong earnings support and good technical patterns [3][16] - Investors are advised to reduce exposure to stocks that have risen significantly without strong fundamental backing [3][16]

Core Views - The report indicates that the recent drop in A-shares is a short-term technical adjustment rather than a trend reversal, with the market expected to remain in a slow bull market driven by policy guidance [2][10] - Despite the recent recovery, the report suggests that the acceleration of the market may slow down, with a higher probability of entering a period of oscillation in the slow bull market [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of rational investment, highlighting the need to balance the long-term opportunities from economic recovery and policy support against the short-term volatility risks from capital market fluctuations [3][11] Market Overview - On Thursday, the market showed signs of recovery after a significant drop on Wednesday, with major indices experiencing a V-shaped rebound and closing higher [5][10] - The total trading volume reached approximately 29,708 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,843.60 points, up 1.14% [6] - The report notes that the semiconductor, communication equipment, and optical communication module sectors performed strongly, while sectors like agriculture and real estate services saw declines [5][6] Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector saw significant gains, driven by government support for future industries such as 5G and 6G, with expectations for increased investment opportunities in related companies [7] - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, supported by national policies and a growing global demand for AI and high-performance computing, with a projected market growth of over 15% by 2025 [8] - The optical communication module sector is expected to remain in a high prosperity cycle, driven by advancements in AI computing and data center upgrades, making it a focus for investors [9]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the recent market decline is a short-term technical adjustment due to profit-taking from previous highs, rather than the beginning of a trend adjustment, with limited expected downside and likely support for recovery [2][10] - The macroeconomic recovery and policy support provide a solid fundamental backing for the market, suggesting that the A-share market remains in a slow bull market under policy guidance [2][10] - The report advises dynamic optimization of holdings, suggesting to reduce positions in recently high-performing stocks and to consider buying undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals [2][10] Market Overview - On the day of the report, the three major indices in the A-share market opened higher and showed strong performance in sectors such as semiconductor and optical communication modules, but experienced a sharp decline in the afternoon due to a sell-off in bank stocks, leading to an overall drop in indices [4][5] - The trading volume was significant, with a total turnover of 31,656 billion, indicating active market participation despite the decline [5] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector remains active, with a long-term positive outlook supported by national policy and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing, with expectations of over 15% growth in the global semiconductor market by 2025 [6][10] - The optical communication module sector is also highlighted as being in a high prosperity cycle, driven by advancements in AI computing and data center upgrades, suggesting investment opportunities in leading companies within this space [7][10]

Core Views - The report indicates that the A-share market may experience a slowdown in upward momentum, urging investors to be cautious of hidden volatility risks beneath apparent market prosperity [1][8] - The report highlights that the market's strong performance is supported by significant trading volume, with a total trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest in A-share history [4][8] - Despite the potential for further upward movement, the report warns of the risks associated with approaching the 3900-point resistance level, suggesting that profit-taking may occur as investors seek to secure gains [1][8] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new annual high of 3883 points, with trading volume surpassing 3 trillion yuan, indicating strong market participation [4][8] - The report notes that while the market showed resilience with a rebound after a low opening, it ultimately faced a slight decline by the end of the trading day, signaling potential volatility ahead [1][4][8] - The report emphasizes the need for dynamic adjustments in holdings, recommending investors to avoid blind chasing of high prices and to consider reducing positions in recently surging stocks [2][8] Sector Performance - The gaming sector saw significant gains, with the report highlighting a 42.75% increase in the media sector during the first half of 2023, although it faced a 15.58% correction in the third quarter [6][8] - The agricultural sector, particularly poultry and livestock, also experienced upward movement, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing industry health and promoting smart agriculture [7][8] - The report suggests that the media and gaming sectors may benefit from advancements in AI technology, particularly in content production and interactive entertainment [6][8]