Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [7] Core Viewpoints - The newly issued guidelines for financial support of the elderly economy are comprehensive and targeted, aiming to promote the development of the silver economy through 16 key measures across five areas, including expanding financing channels and enhancing financial service foundations [4] - Personal pensions are becoming a crucial support for the silver economy, with the number of personal pension accounts expected to exceed 70 million by December 2024, providing further security for the future development of the silver economy [4] - The silver economy is projected to reach a scale of 30 trillion yuan by 2035, with the aging population in China rapidly increasing, indicating significant growth potential in healthcare services for the elderly [4] Summary by Sections Financial Support for Elderly Economy - The guidelines set phased goals for pension finance development by 2028 and 2035, focusing on various demographic needs and financing channels [4] - Financial institutions are encouraged to support leading enterprises in the silver economy and to increase direct financing efforts [4] Personal Pensions - The number of personal pension accounts rose from 19.54 million in December 2022 to over 70 million by December 2024, with annual contributions capped at 12,000 yuan per person [4] Silver Economy Growth - The current scale of the silver economy is approximately 7 trillion yuan, accounting for 6% of GDP, with expectations to grow to 30 trillion yuan by 2035, representing 10% of GDP [4] - The healthcare sector, particularly in areas like elderly care, chronic diseases, and rehabilitation, is expected to benefit significantly from policy support [4][5]

Consumption - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month[4] - The retail sales of catering services rose by 4.0% year-on-year, compared to 3.2% previously, while commodity retail sales increased by 2.8%, down from 5.0%[4] - Retail sales of limited enterprises showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth of only 1.2%, down from 6.8%[4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to November, fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, slightly down from 3.4% in the previous period[4] - Infrastructure investment maintained stability with a year-on-year growth of 9.39%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 10.4%[4] - Private investment showed a year-on-year growth of only 0.4%, indicating a continued contraction in this sector[4] Real Estate Market - The year-on-year decline in the second-hand housing price index narrowed to -8.5% in November, compared to -8.9% previously[5] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was -18.0%, improving from -19.2%[5] - New housing starts, construction area, and completed area all showed significant year-on-year declines of -23.0%, -12.7%, and -26.2% respectively[5] Industrial and Service Production - The industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year in November, slightly up from 5.3% in the previous month[5] - The service production index showed a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, down from 6.3% previously, indicating a slowdown in service sector growth[5] Monetary and Financial Data - M1 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of 6.1% in the previous month, while M2 growth fell to 7.1% from 7.5%[5] - The year-on-year growth of the total social financing stock remained stable at 7.8%, with the RMB loan balance declining by 7.4%[5] - Local government bond growth remained steady at 15.2%, indicating stable financing conditions[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [4]. Core Insights - The Shanghai Municipal Government has introduced a development action plan for scientific instruments and research reagents, aiming to enhance innovation capabilities and foster high-quality industry development by 2027. The plan includes the establishment of 1 to 2 technology testing platforms and over 5 application scenarios and user experience centers, targeting an industry output value of approximately 45 billion yuan [4][16][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The action plan emphasizes product-driven development, strengthening key technology breakthroughs, and nurturing leading enterprises in the scientific instruments and research reagents sector. It outlines 19 tasks focused on overcoming key technologies, developing high-end scientific instruments and reagents, and creating a supportive innovation ecosystem [16][18][19]. 2. Market Review - During the week of December 9-13, 2024, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector declined by 0.93%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.07 percentage points but underperforming the ChiNext index by 0.79 percentage points. The healthcare sector in Hong Kong also saw a decline of 1.82%, lagging behind the Hang Seng index by 2.35 percentage points [23][24][25]. 3. Company Dynamics - Recent announcements include the approval of medical device registration certificates for various products by companies such as Xin Chuang and Huahai Pharmaceutical, indicating ongoing regulatory progress in the industry [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% [5][19]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.2813 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.8%. The adjusted net profit was 1.9281 billion yuan, up 13.7% year-over-year [4]. - The company has accelerated its overseas expansion, with a total of 7,420 stores globally as of September 30, 2024, including 4,250 domestic stores and 2,936 overseas stores, marking increases of 448 and 623 stores respectively year-over-year [4]. - The overseas market's revenue contribution has increased, with overseas revenue reaching 4.543 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year growth of 41.5% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.5226 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 19.3%, and an adjusted net profit of 686.2 million yuan, up 6.9% year-over-year [4]. - The company’s domestic revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 7.738 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.0% [4]. Store Expansion - The company opened 859 new stores in the first three quarters of 2024, nearing its target of net new stores between 900 and 1,100 for the year [4]. - The number of TOP TOY stores reached 234, with a year-over-year increase of 112 stores, indicating a continued rapid expansion [4]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin improved to 44.1% in the first three quarters of 2024, supported by the higher revenue share from the overseas direct sales market, which accounted for 19.9% of total revenue [4]. - The overseas direct sales market's revenue grew significantly, with a year-over-year increase of 55.4% in Q3 2024 [4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.66 billion yuan, 3.33 billion yuan, and 4.16 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.12 yuan, 2.65 yuan, and 3.31 yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the expected launch of the A1 mass production version of the Flash AI smart glasses, which integrates real-time recording and multi-modal AI capabilities, indicating a positive development trend for AI applications [12]. - Huawei's Mate X6 smartphone is set for global release, with expectations for the related supply chain to benefit from the new product launch [13]. - The U.S. government's latest semiconductor export restrictions to China are anticipated to accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's development [14]. - The mass production timeline for the FOPLP advanced packaging technology has been delayed, but the future outlook remains optimistic [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - AI Sector: The Flash AI smart glasses are expected to benefit the related supply chain due to their innovative features [12]. - Huawei Supply Chain: The global launch of Huawei's Mate X6 is expected to drive growth in the related supply chain [13]. - Domestic Substitution: New U.S. semiconductor export restrictions are likely to expedite the domestic semiconductor industry's growth [14]. - Advanced Packaging: Despite delays in FOPLP production, the technology's importance in the computing era is recognized [15]. 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 0.22% from December 9 to December 13, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.23 percentage points [22]. - Among the Shenwan secondary electronic sectors, "Other Electronics II" saw the highest increase at 4.97%, while the semiconductor sector declined by 1.01% [24]. 3. Industry News - Huawei's Mate X6 smartphone features a 7.93-inch internal display and a 6.45-inch external display, with a 50MP main camera and a 5110mAh battery [36]. - The FOPLP advanced packaging technology's mass production has been postponed to mid-2025, but the company remains optimistic about its future [36]. - The global semiconductor equipment shipment value reached $30.38 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 19% year-on-year increase [38]. 4. Company Dynamics - Companies like Zhongfu Circuit are expanding into new application areas, enhancing their market competitiveness [42]. - Pengding Holdings emphasizes cost control and refined management to maintain stable profit margins amid industry fluctuations [43]. - Shunluo Electronics highlights the broad market potential for electronic components driven by the trend towards miniaturization and high power density [43]. 5. Company Announcements - Blue Arrow Electronics plans to reduce its shareholding through block trading [45]. - Dongshan Precision is set to raise up to 1.5 billion RMB through a new share issuance [45]. - Yian Technology received a government subsidy of 1.2 million RMB, representing 35.22% of its latest audited net profit [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the establishment of a standard system for the sensor and IoT industry in Shaanxi, which is expected to benefit the industry chain [13]. - The successful launch of a satellite internet technology test satellite from the Hainan commercial space launch site is anticipated to accelerate the development of satellite internet [14]. - The 2024 China 5G Development Conference emphasized the deepening application and technological upgrades of 5G, which will enhance its integration into various sectors of the economy [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the construction of a standard system for the sensor and IoT industry in Shaanxi, which includes 341 standards across 23 subcategories [13]. - The launch of the Long March 12 rocket from Hainan signifies a major step in the commercial space industry, enabling high-density satellite launches [14]. - The 2024 China 5G Development Conference indicates a shift towards deeper applications and technological upgrades in 5G, with a focus on innovation and integration with AI and other technologies [15]. 2. Market Review - During the week of December 9-13, the A-share Shenwan Communication Index rose by 1.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.92 percentage points [19]. - The communication services sector saw a significant increase of 5.22%, while the communication equipment sector had a modest rise of 0.34% [21]. - The communication application value-added services sector led with an 11.82% increase, while other communication equipment sectors experienced declines [24]. 3. Industry News - The Shaanxi provincial government has issued guidelines to standardize the sensor and IoT industry, aiming for a complete standard system by the end of 2027 [31]. - The successful operation of the Hainan commercial space launch site is expected to expedite the establishment of satellite internet networks [32]. - The 2024 China 5G Development Conference highlighted the government's commitment to advancing 5G technology and its applications across various industries [32]. 4. Company Dynamics - China Mobile has launched an initiative to promote integrated sensing technology and industry applications, collaborating with various partners [35]. - Haige Communications has developed a low-altitude flight management service platform, enhancing efficiency in flight operations [35]. 5. Company Announcements - Tianyi Co. has been shortlisted for a major procurement project by China Telecom [39]. - Pingzhi Information has been announced as a candidate for a significant project with China Unicom, valued at approximately 89.05 million yuan [39].

商贸零售 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 政策定调大力提振消费，关注零售企业价值重估和黄 金珠宝底部反转 ——行业周报（20241209-1213） ◼ 周度核心观点 政策明确大力提振消费，关注零售企业价值重估和黄金珠宝底部反 转。12 月 9 日，政治局会议指出，扩内需摆在第一位，首次强调"全 方位扩大国内需求"，意味着扩内需及促消费是明年经济工作的核心任 务之一。12 月 12 日，中央经济工作会议也指出，明年要保持经济稳 定增长，保持物价总体稳定。一方面，线下零售变革正在进行中，龙 头企业回归零售本质，重视商品和服务，改革成效初显；零售企业资 产重估价值凸显，关注业绩边际改善带来的补涨机会。另一方面，黄 金珠宝行业 24 年 Q2 以来受金价快速上涨扰动，终端销售及加盟商多 处于观望情绪，部分公司销售及业绩受到影响；近期金价有所调整， 销售或有回补，当前主要上市公司估值仍具有较强安全边际，且分红 能力较强，持续关注销售拐点显现。 ◼ 本周行情回顾 本周中信商贸零售指数上涨 6.75%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 7.76 个百分 点。本周，商贸零售板块在 30 个 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [11][12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the retail sales of passenger cars from December 1 to 8, 2024, reached 502,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 32% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. The domestic automotive consumption demand is expected to grow steadily under supportive policies [11][12]. - The report notes that the inventory levels of automotive dealers have decreased compared to September 2024, with a comprehensive inventory coefficient of approximately 1.10 in October 2024 [11]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in the new energy vehicle sector, with a market share of approximately 45.6% in November 2024 [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The automotive sector rose by 0.66% from December 9 to 13, 2024, outperforming the overall A-share market, ranking 12th among all primary industries [13][18]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Monthly Automotive Sales - In November 2024, total automotive sales were approximately 3.316 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 8.6% and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [27]. - Passenger car sales in November 2024 were about 3.001 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [32]. - Commercial vehicle sales were approximately 315,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 5.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [32]. 2.2 Weekly Automotive Sales - From December 1 to 8, 2024, retail sales of passenger cars reached 502,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32% and a month-on-month increase of 11% [42]. - The wholesale of passenger cars during the same period was 565,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 55% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [42]. 2.3 Automotive Sales Outlook - The narrow passenger car retail market is expected to reach approximately 2.4 million units in November 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [43]. 2.4 Raw Material Price Tracking - As of December 6, 2024, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was approximately 76,900 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2% from November 29, 2024 [44][47]. - The price of copper was approximately 74,600 yuan per ton, an increase of 1% from November 29, 2024 [47]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report mentions that Zeekr announced the production of its 400,000th vehicle, and Xiaomi's new SUV, the YU7, is expected to launch in mid-2025 [54]. - SAIC Volkswagen plans to launch 18 new models by 2030, with 15 specifically developed for the Chinese market [54]. 4. New Vehicle Launches - SAIC General's Envision Plus was launched on December 10, 2024, and Dongfeng's Nano 01 was launched on December 12, 2024 [55]. 5. Company Announcements - Wuxi Zhenhua plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 1% through public trading and up to 2% through block trading [57]. - Longhua Group received a development notification from a well-known flying car company for a project expected to generate approximately 91 million yuan in total sales over five years [57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the media industry [4][15]. Core Insights - Outdoor advertising in China has shown steady growth in the first ten months of 2024, with elevator LCD and poster advertising increasing by 21.9% and 16.5% year-on-year, respectively [12]. - ByteDance and Peking University have established a joint laboratory for the Doubao large model, which is expected to benefit the related industry chain as domestic large models continue to develop [12]. - The Chinese gaming market is projected to reach a record revenue of 325.783 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.53%. The overseas revenue from self-developed games is expected to be 18.557 billion USD, marking a 13.39% increase [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the robust growth in outdoor advertising and the establishment of a joint laboratory by ByteDance and Peking University, indicating potential benefits for the industry chain [12][14]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on IP cultural economy, film and television, advertising, and gaming sectors, with specific companies suggested for each area [15]. 2. Market Review 2.1. Sector Performance - The A-share media index rose by 4.11% from December 9 to December 13, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.11 percentage points [19]. - Among the sub-sectors, digital media saw the highest increase at 9.78%, while the education sector declined by 1.77% [19][21]. 2.2. Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks included Yue Media (+46.49%) and Tianyu Digital Science (+37.54%), while the worst performers included Liujin Technology (-14.89%) and Yidian Tianxia (-11.39%) [28]. 3. Industry News - Recent tax policies have been announced for cultural enterprises transitioning to businesses, providing tax exemptions until December 31, 2027 [31]. - Tencent's mobile games "Honor of Kings" and "Teamfight Tactics" ranked first and third in the November download charts, respectively [31]. 4. Company Dynamics - Chuangyuan Co. stated it currently has no collaboration with Douyin [34]. - Light Media announced that the animated film "Nezha: The Devil Child Is Coming" will be released on the first day of the Lunar New Year in 2025 [34]. 5. Company Announcements - Key announcements include the election of a vice chairman at CITIC Publishing and the issuance of short-term financing bonds by Huashu Media [37].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference highlighted increased external pressures and internal challenges for the economy, shifting the view to "facing numerous difficulties and challenges" in economic operations[4] - The conference emphasized the importance of balancing effective markets with proactive government roles, aiming for a well-regulated economic order[4] - The 2025 economic goals include maintaining stable growth, ensuring employment and price stability, and promoting synchronized growth of residents' income and the economy[4] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - In 2025, a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, with expectations of increasing the fiscal deficit ratio, which may exceed 4%[4] - The issuance of special long-term bonds is anticipated to surpass the levels of 2024, with a clear roadmap for local government debt management[4] - The monetary policy for 2025 is expected to shift to a moderately loose stance, focusing on interest rate cuts and innovative financial tools to stabilize the financial market[4] Group 3: Focus Areas and Reforms - The focus for 2025 will be on domestic demand and livelihood improvements, with initiatives to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand through various economic sectors[6] - Key reforms in state-owned enterprises, fiscal systems, and capital market financing are expected to take effect, driving new productive forces in technology and innovation[6] - The report suggests that the bond market will be guided by the outcomes of the Central Economic Work Conference, with a downward trend in risk-free interest rates anticipated[6]