Macro Liquidity - The 2-year Treasury yield rose while the 10-year Treasury yield fell, leading to a marginal narrowing of the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries [2][6] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 13482 billion yuan in open market operations, with a net withdrawal of 7890 billion yuan in MLF operations for October [2][6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 0.27 percentage points to 4.08%, and the US dollar index marginally rose to 102.93 [2][9] - The yield spread between Chinese and US 10-year Treasuries slightly widened to -1.94% [2][9] Market Liquidity Public Funds - From January to October 2024, 880 new funds were established, with a total issuance of 8544 billion shares, a slight increase compared to the same period in 2023 [3][12] - In October 2024, 9 new funds were established, with a total issuance of 6.62 billion shares, of which 6 were equity funds, accounting for 42.72% of the total issuance [3][12] ETF Funds - From January to October 2024, 121 new ETF funds were established, an increase compared to the same period in 2023 [3][14] - In October 2024, 1 new equity ETF fund was established, with an issuance of 2.09 billion shares [3][14] - The scale of ETF equity funds increased significantly to 28068 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 10136 billion yuan, accounting for 36.1% of the total scale [14][16] Southbound Funds - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 109.39 billion yuan last week, with a cumulative net inflow of 4723 billion yuan since the beginning of 2024 [3][18] - The cumulative net inflow since the opening of southbound funds reached approximately 2.98 trillion yuan [18] Margin Trading - The average margin purchase amount last week was 2775.7 billion yuan, an increase of 116.15% compared to the previous week, accounting for 1.67 percentage points more of the A-share trading volume [20][21] - The margin trading balance as of October 11 was approximately 1.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.72% compared to the previous week [20][21] - The industries with the highest net margin purchases were electronics (175.08 billion yuan), non-bank financials (174.52 billion yuan), computers (98.67 billion yuan), and machinery (90.84 billion yuan) [21] Fundraising - In October 2024, 2 companies conducted IPOs, raising a total of 6.4 billion yuan [3][22] - As of October 11, there were no companies participating in private placements [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile and apparel industry is maintained at "Overweight" [1]. Core Insights - Domestic sports brands are performing steadily, with Anta Sports showing stable retail growth, while Nike's recent performance indicates a slight decline in revenue and profit [7][8]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports are experiencing slight fluctuations, but overall, the manufacturing sector remains optimistic due to a recovery in orders and inventory replenishment [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights of the Week - Domestic sports brands, particularly Anta, are showing stable operations with mid-single-digit retail growth, while FILA is experiencing a slight decline [7]. - Nike's Q1 revenue was $11.6 billion, down 10% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 28%, although gross margin improved by 120 basis points to 45.4% [7]. - Vietnam's textile exports in September were approximately $2.98 billion, down 0.66% year-on-year, while footwear exports were $1.57 billion, up 4.49% year-on-year [7]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.25%, while the textile and apparel sector dropped by 6.44%, underperforming the index by 3.19 percentage points [9]. - All three sub-sectors (textile manufacturing, apparel and home textiles, and accessories) experienced declines, with textile manufacturing down 5.29%, apparel and home textiles down 7.25%, and accessories down 6.04% [11]. 3. Industry Tracking - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,726 billion yuan, growing by 2.1% year-on-year, with apparel and textile categories declining by 1.6% [18]. - The textile and apparel export value in August was $27.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, with textile exports at $12.22 billion (up 5.1%) and apparel exports at $15.73 billion (down 2.0%) [29]. - As of October 11, domestic cotton prices were reported at 15,384.91 yuan/ton, with international cotton prices at 82.64 cents/pound, reflecting slight increases [26].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a forecasted net profit of 6.45 billion, 9.69 billion, and 12.23 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 13x, 9x, and 7x [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is leading in tire intelligent manufacturing and accelerating its global strategic layout, with overseas market sales contribution increasing from approximately 14% in 2019 to 73% in 2023 [2][12]. - The tire industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand dynamic, supported by rising global automotive sales and strong replacement demand, with the global tire sales expected to continue growing [2][19]. - The company is focusing on overseas dual-base expansion and product diversification, with significant capacity growth planned and a strategic goal to achieve over 50 million units of production capacity in the next decade [2][3][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Tire Intelligent Manufacturing and Global Strategic Layout - The company has over 20 years of experience in the tire industry and has established modern production bases in China, Thailand, and Cambodia [12]. - The company’s brand "Qianlima" was recognized as one of China's top ten influential tire brands in 2023 [2]. - The company is entering a performance realization phase, with a net profit of 1.53 billion in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1271% [2][15]. 2. Favorable Supply-Demand Dynamics in the Tire Industry - The global tire sales are expected to grow, driven by increasing automotive sales and strong replacement demand, with 2023 global tire sales reaching 1.785 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [20]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, have low per capita car ownership, providing significant growth potential for tire demand [22]. 3. Overseas Dual-Base Expansion and Future Growth Potential - The company is committed to R&D and is advancing its internationalization, smart manufacturing, and green upgrades, with plans for a 5G carbon cloud smart factory [2][3]. - The company’s production capacity is expected to increase significantly, with planned capacity reaching 38.45 million units by the end of 2023 [2][3]. - The revenue contribution from semi-steel tires has increased from about 4% in 2019 to 35% in 2022, indicating a shift towards higher-margin products [16][17]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5.064 billion in 2023 to 11.439 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.9% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly, with a CAGR of about 1,175.5% from 2023 to 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the retail industry [2] Core Insights - The 2024 Double Eleven shopping festival has an extended duration, with e-commerce platforms focusing on optimizing the business environment. Major platforms like Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, and Douyin are implementing various promotional strategies and financial incentives to support merchants and enhance consumer engagement [10][11] - In physical retail, companies are returning to the essence of retail by focusing on product quality, pricing, and service. Notable examples include Sam's Club, which has expanded its store count significantly, and Yonghui Supermarket, which has successfully revamped its store operations [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights of the Week - E-commerce platforms are enhancing the shopping experience and reducing operational costs for merchants through various initiatives, including promotional activities and financial support [10][11] - Physical retailers are focusing on product quality and stable pricing to regain consumer trust, as demonstrated by the success of Sam's Club and Yonghui Supermarket [11][12] 2. Industry Dynamics 2.1. Market Performance - During the period from October 8 to October 11, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.25%, while the retail sector declined by 6.14%, underperforming the index by 2.89 percentage points [13] 2.2. Stock Performance - Among 104 companies in the retail sector, 11 stocks rose while 93 fell, with notable declines in Yonghui Supermarket and Huazhi Wine [17] 3. Industry Tracking 3.1. Industry Data Tracking - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,726 billion yuan, growing by 2.1% year-on-year, with online retail showing resilience [23][25] 3.2. Industry News - Walmart is testing a fully digital Sam's Club store in the U.S., showcasing innovative retail strategies [32] - JD's fresh food business has opened its first front warehouse in Beijing, aiming for rapid delivery [33] 4. Company Announcements - Yonghui Supermarket has filed for arbitration regarding a share transfer agreement, seeking significant financial compensation [38]

宏观研究/宏观点评 | --- | |-------| | | | | | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | --- | |-------| | | | | | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------------------- ...

Export Performance - In September, China's export value decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, down from 8.7% in the previous month[4] - Cumulative exports from January to September increased by 4.3% year-on-year[4] - The trade surplus in September was $81.71 billion, compared to $91.02 billion in the previous month[4] Import Trends - September imports grew by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly down from 0.5% in August[4] - Cumulative imports from January to September increased by 2.2% year-on-year[4] Sector Analysis - Cumulative export growth for electromechanical products was 6.1%, accounting for 59.3% of total exports[4] - Cumulative export growth for high-tech products was 4.2%, making up 24.4% of total exports[4] - Automotive exports saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 20.7%, while integrated circuit exports grew by 19.8%[4] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the US decreased by 2.16% year-on-year, down from 4.94%[5] - Exports to the EU fell by 1.32% year-on-year, down from 13.40%[5] - Exports to Japan and South Korea turned negative, with declines of 7.12% and 9.22% respectively[5] Future Outlook - The decline in export growth is considered temporary, with expectations of recovery driven by global demand improvements following interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[6] - Monitoring of export price recovery is crucial, as the HS2 export price index remains below 100 at 93.7[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the media industry [1]. Core Insights - Elevator advertising leads the growth in outdoor advertising, with significant benefits expected for related sectors. In the first eight months of 2024, elevator LCD and poster advertising expenditures increased by 24.3% and 16.9% year-on-year, respectively [4][17]. - Hainan is actively promoting the "game export" pilot program, which is expected to benefit related sectors. Currently, 186 games have been deployed, covering over 100 countries and regions [4][15]. - The film industry saw a diverse range of films during the National Day holiday, with box office earnings reaching 2.104 billion yuan and 52.09 million viewers [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - Elevator advertising is leading outdoor advertising growth, with related sectors likely to benefit. The first eight months of 2024 saw significant increases in advertising expenditures [4]. - Hainan's "game export" pilot program is expected to benefit the gaming sector, with 186 games deployed and a focus on enhancing international player experience [4][15]. - The film industry is benefiting from diverse offerings during the National Day holiday, with significant box office earnings reported [4][16]. 2. Market Review - The A-share media index fell by 8.57% from October 7 to October 11, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.31 percentage points [6]. - Among the media sub-sectors, the film and television sector saw the largest decline at 12.39%, while the education sector performed relatively better with a decline of 5.3% [9][10]. 3. Industry News - Hainan's initiative to promote "game export" is a significant development, with the deployment of 186 games and support from government policies [15]. - The National Day box office figures indicate a strong performance for domestic films, with a notable lead from the film "The Volunteer Army: The Battle of Survival" [16]. 4. Company Dynamics - Huayi Brothers reported revenue from the film "749 Bureau" ranging from 11.94 million to 15.51 million yuan, and from "The Volunteer Army: The Battle of Survival" between 900,000 and 1.17 million yuan [18]. - Gigabit plans to launch a special server for "Wandao Mobile Game" in November and is adjusting two new products for better market fit [19]. 5. Company Announcements - Key announcements include a new financing round for a subsidiary of Youzu Network and box office data for the film "749 Bureau" [20].

建筑材料 行业研究/行业周报 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The construction of national data infrastructure is expected to accelerate, creating investment opportunities in the data element industry chain [2][7]. - Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT has entered public testing with over one million sign-ups, indicating a positive outlook for the Huawei ecosystem [2][7]. - ByteDance has released the GR-2 robot AI model, achieving an average task completion rate of 97.7%, highlighting advancements in AI model capabilities [2][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential acceleration in the construction of national data infrastructure, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities within the data element industry chain [7]. - It highlights the positive reception of Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT, which has surpassed one million registrations for public testing, indicating a growing ecosystem [7]. - The report also notes the release of ByteDance's GR-2 robot AI model, which demonstrates significant advancements in AI capabilities [8]. 2. Market Review (2024.10.08-2024.10.11) - The A-share Shenwan Computer Index fell by 1.44%, but the sector outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.81 percentage points [11]. - The report ranks the computer sector as the 4th best performer among 31 first-level sub-industries [11]. 3. Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from the national data infrastructure initiative, such as Deep Sanda A, Shanghai Steel Union, and Guoxin Health [10]. - For the Huawei chain, it suggests looking at companies like Chinasoft International and Softcom Power [10]. - In the AI model and application sector, it recommends Wanxing Technology, Kingsoft Office, and Yingshi Network [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that international oil prices are expected to remain high due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies [1][16]. - It notes that while U.S. crude oil production is projected to grow over the next two years, international oil prices are likely to stabilize at relatively high levels, which is favorable for upstream companies [16]. - The report identifies four main investment themes within the petrochemical sector, focusing on state-owned energy companies, oil service companies, polyester industry improvements, and refining companies expanding new capacities [2][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Oil and Petrochemical sector declined approximately 4.02% during the week of October 7-11, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 0.46 percentage points [7]. - Key stocks that performed well included Guanghui Energy and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, while stocks like Hongtian Co. and Donghua Energy saw significant declines [9][10]. Core Views Oil & Gas Sector - Brent crude oil futures settled at approximately $79.04 per barrel, with a weekly increase of about 1.27%, and WTI crude oil futures at $75.56 per barrel, up 1.6% [11]. - Natural gas prices saw a decline, with NYMEX natural gas futures closing at about $2.63 per million British thermal units, down 7% [13]. Oil Service Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America increased by one week-on-week, although it decreased by 36 year-on-year [17]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like China Oilfield Services and CNOOC Engineering due to the growth in OPEC countries' drilling platforms [17]. Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices slightly increased, with gasoline prices in Shandong rising to approximately 7,474 RMB per ton [19]. - The report indicates a significant recovery potential for refining companies, recommending attention to Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [19]. Polyester Sector - The report notes a reduction in inventory days for polyester products, indicating a potential recovery in performance for companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun [23]. - The POY price spread has expanded, suggesting improved profitability for polyester manufacturers [23]. C3 Sector - The price of acrylic acid in Shandong rose to approximately 6,575 RMB per ton, with a weekly increase of about 1.9% [28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation for their efforts in oil and gas production and green transformation [31]. - It also suggests monitoring oil service companies and refining firms that are actively planning new capacities and projects [31].