策略研究/策略周报 | --- | |-------| | | | | | --- | --- | |-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | --- | |-------| | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 中美国债利率下行， 24 年 ...

计算机 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 ◼ 腾讯发布新一代大模型"混元 Turbo"，关注 AI 技术进程 ——计算机行业周报（2024.09.02-2024.09.06） 增持(维持) 行业： 计算机 日期： yxzqdatemark 2024年09月11日 分析师： 李行杰 E-mail： lixingjie@yongxingsec. com SAC编号： S1760524010003 分析师： 夏明达 E-mail： xiamingda@yongxings ec.com SAC编号： S1760523080004 近一年行业与沪深 300 比较 计算机 沪深300 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 09/23 11/23 01/24 04/24 06/24 09/24 资料来源：Wind，甬兴证券研究所 相关报告： 《中石油发布昆仑大模型成果，AI商 业化应用或将提速》 ——2024 年 09 月 06 日 《萝卜快跑订单累计超 700 万单， 看好自动驾驶景气提升》 ——2024 年 08 月 26 日 《NVIDIA Thor 成功 ...

建筑材料 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 建材板块持续承压，静待需求底部修复 ——建材行业周报（2024.9.2-2024.9.6） ◼ 核心观点 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 消费建材：9月一线商品房供应或环比增长，短期市场活跃度或有望小 幅回升。据克而瑞地产研究， 9 月 28 个重点城市预计新增商品住宅供 应面积环比降 4%，同比降 59%，其中预计一线城市环比增 10%，三四 线同环比下降。据中指研究院，24 年 1-8 月，百强房企销售额同比降 38.5%，降幅较上月继续收窄，8 月单月百强房企销售额同比降 22%， 环比降 2.43%。我们认为，随着传统旺季来临，房企促销叠加政策落 地进一步显现效果，短期核心城市市场活跃度或将小幅回升。 玻纤：据卓创资讯，本周国内无碱粗纱市场行情暂稳运行，部分厂个 别产品价格小涨，截至 9 月 5 日，国内 2400tex 无碱缠绕直接纱主流成 交价在 3600-3700 元/吨，全国均价 3677.50 元/吨，环比上一周均价持 平，同比上涨 4.46%，较上周同比增幅扩大 1 个百分点；周内电子纱 G75 主流报价 8 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating due to the company's continuous cost reduction and quality improvement in granular silicon, with expected recovery in profitability as polysilicon prices gradually recover [3] Core Views - The company reported revenue of 8 863 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 57 7%, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 1 480 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 126 8% [2] - Polysilicon shipments reached approximately 126 400 tons in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24 99%, with an average external selling price of 40 3 yuan/kg [2] - Granular silicon shipments to the top three customers accounted for 62 2% of total shipments, with the company's 420 000-ton polysilicon nominal capacity fully operational [2] - Granular silicon quality improved significantly, with N-type silicon accounting for over 96% of production, and total metal impurities in 5 elements reduced to below 1ppbw [2] - R&D expenditure increased to 718 million yuan in H1 2024, with an R&D expense ratio exceeding 8%, up 3 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 17 160 billion yuan, 30 523 billion yuan, and 42 118 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -49%, +78%, and +38% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be -1 915 billion yuan, 1 567 billion yuan, and 4 354 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -176%, +182%, and +178% [3] - The stock's PE ratio for 2025 and 2026 is estimated at 20x and 7x, respectively [3] Operational Highlights - Granular silicon cash cost is expected to drop below 30 yuan/kg, with significant improvements in product quality and impurity levels [2] - The company obtained 65 patents in H1 2024, including 16 invention authorizations, focusing on granular silicon, industrial silicon, silane gas, perovskite, and CCZ technologies [2] - The company aims to achieve full-scale production of GW-level granular silicon lines by the end of 2024 [2] Market and Valuation - The stock's closing price was 1 17 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 0 89-1 64 yuan and a market capitalization of 28 688 billion yuan [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 8 31x, 3 61x, and 2 17x, respectively [8]

汽车 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 汽车 沪深300 -30% -22% -14% -6% 2% 10% 09/23 11/23 01/24 04/24 06/24 09/24 资料来源：Wind，甬兴证券研究所 增持(维持) 近一年行业与沪深 300 比较 多地更新以旧换新政策，特斯拉预计 25Q1 在中国和 欧洲推出 FSD ——汽车行业周报（2024/09/02~2024/09/06） ◼ 行情回顾 过去一周(2024/09/02~2024/09/06），申万汽车行业上涨 0.53%，表现 强于同花顺全 A，所有一级行业中涨跌幅排名第 1。细分板块涨跌 幅：过去一周(2024/09/02~2024/09/06），商用车涨幅最大，摩托车及 其他跌幅最大。商用车上涨 3.25%，乘用车上涨 0.45%，汽车零部件 上涨 0.35%，汽车服务下跌 0.01%，摩托车及其他下跌 1.30%。 行业： 汽车 日期： yxzqdatemark 2024年09月10日 分析师： 王琎 E-mail： wangjin@yongxingsec. com SAC编号： S176 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 电子 行业研究/行业周报 2024Q2 消费类 NAND Flash 环比大增，三星公布 DDR 发展路线图 ——存储芯片周度跟踪（2024.09.02-2024.09.06） ◼ 核心观点 NAND：NAND颗粒市场价格小幅波动，2024Q2消费类 NAND Flash 市场规模环比增长 18.6%至 180.0 亿美元。根据 DRAMexchange，上 周（0902-0906）NAND 颗粒 22 个品类现货价格环比涨跌幅区间为2.32%至 15.97%，平均涨跌幅为 1.72%。其中 4 个料号价格持平，12 个料号价格上涨，6个料号价格下跌。根据经济观察网援引CFM闪存 市场数据，2024 年二季度全球 NANDFlash（非易失性存储器）市场 规模环比增长 18.6%至 180.0 亿美元，DRAM（易失性存储器）市场 规模环比增长 24.9%至 234.2 亿美元。全球存储市场规模二季度环比 增长 22.1%至 414.2 亿美元，同比大增 108.7%。 DRAM：颗粒价格小幅波动，三星公布 DDR 发展路线图。根据 DRAMexchan ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company demonstrated robust operational performance with a revenue of approximately 463 million yuan in H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.25%, and a net profit of about 116 million yuan, up 26.52% year-on-year [1]. - The micro-motor products are the main contributors to revenue growth, with revenue from micro-motors and fluid technology products reaching approximately 204 million yuan and 217 million yuan respectively in H1 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 36.61% and 4.36% [2]. - The company's profitability remains strong, with a gross margin of 36.51% and a net margin of 24.98% in H1 2024, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [2]. - The company is expanding its application scenarios for micro-motors and accelerating the industrialization of advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) products, which is expected to drive revenue growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 463 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.25%, and a net profit of about 116 million yuan, up 26.52% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was approximately 221 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.03% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.41% [1]. - The revenue from the new energy vehicle components reached approximately 137 million yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 30.06% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 19.21% [2]. Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 36.51%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 24.98%, up 2.03 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s Q2 2024 gross margin was 36.20%, which remained stable year-on-year but decreased by 0.59 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, with projected revenues of approximately 1.21 billion yuan, 1.56 billion yuan, and 1.95 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 31.0%, 28.6%, and 25.4% [3]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years are approximately 263 million yuan, 348 million yuan, and 446 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.0%, 32.5%, and 28.2% respectively [4].

策略研究/策略周报 | --- | |-------| | | | | | --- | --- | |-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | --- | |-------| | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------- ...

传媒 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 全球游戏订阅市场收入持续增长，北京发布政策支持微短剧 ——传媒行业周报（2024.9.2-2024.9.6） ◼ 核心观点 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 游戏：Omdia 预计 2028 年全球游戏订阅市场收入超 270 亿美元，相 关板块有望受益。Omdia 最新发布的研究预测，全球游戏订阅市场的 收入预计将在 2028 年超过 270 亿美元。这一增长标志着游戏订阅服 务的价值和重要性在全球范围内的持续扩大。 影视短剧：北京发布政策支持网络微短剧产业发展，相关板块有望 受益。9 月 3 日，北京大视听·网络微短剧"首亮微光"2.0 扶持计 划发布，单部作品最高可获北京市广播电视局 300 万元扶持资金。该 计划由北京市广播电视局发起，北京各区委宣传部、中国电视剧制作 产业协会青年工作委员会，以及抖音、快手、点众、红果短剧、优 酷、爱奇艺、百度、微博等平台参与。 广告营销：北京将建一批数字广告产业园区，相关板块有望受益。 为了因地制宜加快建设数字广告产业园区，引导数字广告产业集聚与 创新，实现广告和相关产业高质量发展，由北京市市 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 通信 行业研究/行业周报 A 北斗行业会议召开，中国移动数据承载网骨干网开始 采购 ——通信行业周报（2024.9.2-2024.9.6） ◼ 核心观点 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 运营商算力：中国移动建成全球运营商最大单集群智算中心，相关 板块有望受益。近日，中国移动智算中心（哈尔滨）正式宣布上线 投产，成为全球运营商最大单集群智算中心。该智算中心单集群内配 备了超过 18000 张 AI 加速卡，智能算力规模高达 6.9EFLOPS。 卫星导航：《推动北斗规模应用和产业高质量发展倡议》在重庆发 布，相关板块有望受益。空天信息产业国际生态大会 9 月 3 日在重庆 开幕。本次大会以"规模应用 生态赋能"为主题，国家发展改革委 等中央部委领导、两院院士、专家学者和头部企业负责人等 500 余人 共同探讨北斗规模应用新未来，共同谋划空天信息产业新图景。大会 期间，重庆市空天信息产业专家委员会成立，这是国内首个由地方政 府组建的空天信息产业专家委员会。专委会发布《推动北斗规模应用 和产业高质量发展倡议》，呼吁业界通过共建基础设施、多方协同攻 关、共谋应用场景 ...