中国宏观经济报告 2025/3/6 中国宏观经济研究员 阎奕锦 010-66555831 yijin_yan@chiefgroup.com 2025 年财政政策如何发力 昨天的《政府工作报告》指出，2025 年要实施更加积极的财政政策；要统筹安排收入、 债务等各类财政资金，确保财政政策持续用力、更加给力。今天财政部公布了《关于 2024 年 中央和地方预算执行情况与 2025 年中央和地方预算草案的报告》，我们将二者结合起来，综 合分析今年政府对财政政策的详细部署情况。 我国预算体系包括一般公共预算、全国政府性基金预算、国有资本经营预算和社会保 险预算，即大家所称的"四本账"。一般公共预算是主体，其收支差额对应财政赤字；政府 性基金预算是一般公共预算的重要补充，按基金项目编制，做到以收定支。国有资本经营 预算占比最低，按照收支平衡的原则编制，不列赤字，并安排资金调入一般公共预算。社 会保险基金预算按照统筹层次和社会保险项目分别编制，做到收支平衡。 2024 年财政收支呈现的特点 ➢ 非税收入支撑一般公共预算收入增速录得正值 2025 年财政政策如何发力 2024 年全国一般公共预算收入 219702.12 亿 ...

美国对华二次加税点评 2025 年/3 月 | 时间 | 美国 | 中国 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2月1日 | 特朗普宣布对来自中国的全部商品加征10% | 2月4日宣布：对来自美国的液化天然气、煤 | | | 关税，对来自加拿大和墨西哥的全部商品征 | 炭加征15%关税，对原油、农业机械、大排 | | | 收25%关税（对加拿大能源征收10%关税）。 | 量汽车、皮卡加征10%关税。 | | | 后于2月3日表示暂缓加征加、墨两国关税。 | | | 2月13日 | 宣布征收对等关税 | | | 2月26日 | 宣布将对来自欧盟的汽车和其他商品征收 | | | | 25%关税 | | | 2月27日 | 宣布对华额外征收10%关税 | | | 3月3日 | 宣布对来自加拿大和墨西哥的全部商品征收 | 3月4日宣布：从3月10日起，对来自美国的 | | | 25%关税将于3月4日正式生效（后又于3月6 | 鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花加征15%关税；对 | | | 日宣布延迟征收）；对等关税将于4月2日开 | 高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、 | | | 始征收 | 蔬菜、乳制品加征10 ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The "America First Investment Policy" aims to maintain a strong and open investment environment in the U.S. while protecting against foreign investment threats[1] - The policy encourages investments from allies and partners, particularly in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence[2] - A "fast track" procedure will be established to facilitate investments from specific allied nations in critical sectors[2] Group 2: Restrictions on Foreign Investment - The policy will limit investments from foreign adversaries in key sectors such as technology, healthcare, and energy, particularly focusing on sensitive technologies like AI[3] - U.S. companies will be restricted from investing in industries that advance China's military-civil fusion strategy, including semiconductors and biotechnology[6] - The scope of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) will be expanded to include emerging and foundational technologies[3] Group 3: Implications for U.S.-China Relations - The memorandum explicitly targets China, linking economic security to national security and criticizing past policies that facilitated China's industrial growth[8] - Future Chinese investments in the U.S. may face stricter scrutiny, especially in critical technology sectors[8] - The policy reflects a long-term competitive relationship between the U.S. and China, particularly in advanced manufacturing and AI technologies[10] Group 4: Market Impact and Future Considerations - The immediate economic impact of the policy is expected to be limited, as recent trends have already shifted capital away from sensitive tech sectors[10] - The memorandum introduces uncertainty for cross-border capital flows, particularly affecting publicly traded securities[10] - The implementation of the policy may take time, as seen in previous legislative cycles, with significant adjustments likely before final guidelines are established[10]

2025/02/24 宏观经济研究员 杨曦 010-66555831 xi_yang@chiefgroup.com.hk 民营企业座谈会释放积极信号 2 月 17 日上午，民营企业座谈会在京召开，国家领导同来自全国各行各业民营企业负责人面 面对进行了座谈。 领导讲话关键词 高质量发展：由规模扩张向价值创造的战略转型 决策层将改革重心转向质量跃升战略。区别于过往的规模导向，当前政策着力构建全要素价 值创新体系，这实质上是对新型生产力发展范式的系统性阐释： 科技创新竞争力：明确将资源配置向智能装备、清洁能源、数字经济等战略领域倾斜，支持 民营企业构建全球价值链控制能力。 服务支撑体系：税务系统推出的"春雨润企"专项行动实现服务迭代，通过精准化需求响应机 制破解经营主体发展梗阻，形成覆盖企业全生命周期的政务服务体系。 国际化布局：民营经济成为全球资源配置先锋力量 尽管国有资本海外布局日趋成熟，但真正实现全球价值链渗透的突破性案例多源自民营企业 群体。以通信设备龙头和短视频平台为代表的新锐力量，正在重塑国际贸易格局。最新统计数据 显示，重点区域民营经济主体跨境贸易规模实现两位数增长，新能源汽车领军企业境外销量增幅 突 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have increased by over 10% since the beginning of 2025, surpassing $2900 per ounce, marking a historical high[2] - The price is expected to fluctuate between $2600 and $3200 per ounce throughout 2025 due to central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties[2][38] Group 2: Key Drivers of Gold Prices - Central bank gold purchases reached 1180 tons in 2024, marking the third consecutive year above 1000 tons[5] - The U.S. government's tariff policies have heightened uncertainty, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset[30][33] - The spread between COMEX futures and London spot prices has widened, leading to increased arbitrage demand[35] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold supply has remained stable at around 4800 tons annually, with mine production at approximately 3600 tons and recycled gold at 1200 tons[26] - Gold demand has fluctuated significantly, particularly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but has averaged around 4500 tons in stable years[27] - Central bank purchases have surged, compensating for declines in gold ETF demand, which previously influenced gold prices[30][27] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Short-term price movements will be influenced by trading behaviors and arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased volatility[38] - Long-term trends will be shaped by global economic conditions, monetary policies, and geopolitical factors, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset[39][44] - Risks include potential U.S. economic resilience and inflation, which could lead to unexpected interest rate hikes, suppressing gold prices[44]

Group 1: International Balance of Payments - In Q4 2024, China's current account surplus reached $180.7 billion, while the non-reserve financial account deficit expanded to $211.1 billion[2] - For the entire year of 2024, the current account surplus was $422 billion, with a non-reserve financial account deficit of $503.8 billion[2] - Both the current account and trade account surpluses hit historical peaks, indicating significant capital outflow pressure and a lack of confidence in capital markets[2] Group 2: Trade Performance - In Q4 2024, China's goods trade surplus was $249.6 billion, marking the highest quarterly goods trade surplus ever recorded[10] - The annual goods trade surplus for 2024 was $767.9 billion, also the highest on record[10] - Service trade deficits showed marginal improvement due to a rapid increase in inbound travel from foreign individuals[10] Group 3: Capital and Financial Accounts - In Q4 2024, direct investment recorded a deficit of $12 billion, with outbound direct investment at $29.5 billion[13] - Foreign direct investment in China increased by $17.5 billion, but overall foreign direct investment was down by $38.2 billion compared to the previous year[14] - The non-reserve financial account deficit for Q4 2024, excluding FDI, was $199.1 billion, indicating a trend of increasing short-term capital outflow[17] Group 4: 2025 Outlook and Policy Response - As of January 2025, the capital outflow pressure remains significant, with a bank settlement balance of -$39.2 billion[20] - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to stabilize the exchange rate around 7.3, including increasing offshore central bank bill issuance and adjusting cross-border financing parameters[23] - Recommendations include enhancing macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows and boosting domestic demand through fiscal policy[25][26]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In January 2025, the US CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 2.9%[1] - The core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, also above the expected 3.1%[1] - The January CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, surpassing the forecast of 0.3%[1] Group 2: Contribution to CPI - The largest contributor to the January CPI was the household category, contributing 1.577%[3] - Energy prices increased by 1% year-on-year, contributing 0.06% to the CPI, a rise of 0.09 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Food prices remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, contributing 0.34% to the CPI[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 4.6%[7] - Gold prices increased, surpassing $2900 per ounce[7] - The probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in March 2025 is now 97.5%[7] Group 4: Future Predictions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates only once in 2025, with a reduction of 25 basis points anticipated in the first half of the year[7] - The overall inflation outlook suggests potential challenges in the second half of 2025 due to policy effects from the Trump administration[6]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is expected to be stable yet risky in 2025, with the keyword being "conflict" due to Trump's return to presidency and Republican control of Congress[2] - Key economic indicators show nominal GDP growth at 4.96% in Q4 2024, slightly above the potential growth rate of 4.6%[3] - Inflation, measured by PCE, rebounded to 2.55% in December 2024, slightly above the target of 2%[3] Employment and Consumer Trends - The unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in December 2024, below the natural rate of 4.1%[3] - Household debt levels are normal, with debt-to-disposable income ratios below critical thresholds, indicating no significant debt pressure on consumers[8] - Job vacancy rates remain high, with a peak of 4.90% in November 2024, suggesting a tight labor market[11] Risks and Uncertainties - Trump's policies may introduce significant economic shocks, creating uncertainty in the financial markets and increasing investment risks[12] - The potential rise in the U.S. economy's growth rate due to AI advancements could lead to higher neutral interest rates, further complicating monetary policy[12] Investment Strategy Recommendations - For the stock market, focus on globalized large tech companies, as their overseas revenue often exceeds 50%, reducing regional dependency[14] - In the bond market, prioritize short-duration government bonds and high-grade debt for stable returns amidst volatility[14] - Consider strategic allocation to gold and a cautious outlook on the U.S. dollar[15]

Group 1: Market Size and Securities Rate - The reasonable scale of a country's stock market is influenced by financing models and economic development levels[1] - The securities rate, calculated as the market capitalization to GDP ratio, is used to assess the reasonable scale of stock markets[1] - China's current securities rate is approximately 53%, with a market capitalization of about 67 trillion RMB[9] Group 2: Legal Systems and Financing Models - Different legal systems significantly impact the securities rate, with common law countries favoring direct financing and civil law countries relying on indirect financing[1][4] - In the Eurozone, the average securities rate is 54.53%, with Germany at 58.75% and France at 84.77%[4] Group 3: Economic Development Correlation - Higher economic development levels correlate with higher securities rates; for example, the U.S. securities rate increased from 41.77% in 1975 to 193.35% in 2020 as GDP rose from $7,801 to $64,265[6] - This trend is also observed in civil law countries like Germany and France, indicating a similar relationship between GDP and securities rates[6] Group 4: China's Market Potential - Based on historical data, a reasonable securities rate for China is estimated to be between 40% and 60%[9] - Therefore, the reasonable market capitalization for China's A-share market is projected to be between 50 trillion and 75 trillion RMB based on 2023 GDP data[9]

Group 1: Market Impact - DeepSeek's launch led to a significant drop in the semiconductor market, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling by 9.2%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2020[2] - NVIDIA's stock price dropped nearly 17%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $600 billion, one of the largest single-day market cap reductions in U.S. history[2] - The success of DeepSeek may have a more profound impact on companies relying on self-developed large models, such as OpenAI and ByteDance, rather than directly on NVIDIA[12] Group 2: Cost Efficiency - DeepSeek achieved a training cost of under $6 million using approximately 2,000 H800 GPUs, with a total of 2,788K GPU hours utilized for training[6] - The input cost for DeepSeek's reasoning model is only 1 yuan per million tokens, significantly lower than OpenAI's model, which charges $15 per million tokens for input[7] - DeepSeek's innovative training strategies, including the use of pure reinforcement learning, have led to a substantial reduction in training costs and improved model performance[9] Group 3: Future Implications - The reduction in training and inference costs may lead to increased demand for computational resources, contrary to the expected decrease, as per Jevons Paradox[14] - DeepSeek's advancements could lower the barrier for small and medium enterprises to develop private models, potentially leading to a surge in demand for inference capabilities[15] - Despite the short-term impact on NVIDIA's stock, the long-term outlook suggests a potential increase in demand for NVIDIA's chips as AI commercialization accelerates[16]