2024年09月 07 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 美联储逐渐接近降息，市场风格是否会反转? \n报告摘要 | 作者 | | | | | 核心观点: | 董忠云 | 分析师 | | | | ◆ 近期市场出现风格切换迹象,前期持续震荡上行的大盘、价值风格 | | SAC 执业证书: S0640515120001 | | | | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | | 在 8 月底转向小盘、成长风格。因此投资者关注两个问题。 | | 邮箱: dongzy@avicsec.com ...

2024年09月07日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 AI 硬件需求持续增长，商业化应用有望加速落地 本周行情: 社会服务（申万）板块指数周涨跌幅为-1.01%,在申万 一级行业涨跌幅中排名7/31。 � 各基准指数周涨跌幅情况为：各基准指数周涨跌幅情况为: 社会服 务 (-1.01%）、深证成指（-2.61%）、创业板指（-2.68%）、上证 指数（-2.69%）、沪深300（-2.71%）。 � � � � 子行业涨跌幅排名:教育（3.83%）、旅游及景区（3.54%）、酒 店餐饮（1.05%）、体育Ⅱ（0.46%）、专业服务（-2.36%）。 个股涨跌幅排名前五: *ST 开元 (22.06%)、中国高科 (12.08%)、 祥源文旅 (11.86%）、兰生股份 (11.66%）、凯文教育 (6.38%) 。 个股涨跌幅排名后五:国检集团(-14.86%)、建科股份 (-12.05%)、 国缆检测（-8.14%）、建研院（-7.69%）、谱尼测试（-7.51%）。 核心观点: 根据市场研究机构 Canalys 的最新预测，随着 Lunar Lake 处 理器的推出，英特尔在 A ...

2024年09月07 E 证券研究报告|行业研究|军工行业点评 国防军工 投资评级 增持 维持评级 军工行业周报:从中国船舶吸并中国重工看军工行业 并购逻辑 报告摘要 核心观点 9月2日晚,中国船舶、中国重工公告,中国船舶重工股份有限公 司与中国船舶工业股份有限公司正在筹划由中国船舶通过向公司全体 股东发行 A 股股票的方式换股吸收合并中国重工。这一公告再次引爆 了市场对于军工行业并购、央企资产注入的预期,如昆船智能 (+20%)、 中船科技(+9.99%)、中船汉光(+9.09%)、中船应急(+7.39%)、久 之洋(+4.65%)等中船系上市公司均在消息发布次日出现一定上涨。 对于本次上市公司"两船合并"我们给出如下判断: 1 上市公司层面的"两船合并"并非是无风起浪，早在两船集团 合并后的 2021 年中国船舶集团便承诺"在 5 年内稳妥推进符合注入上 市公司的相关资产及业务整合以解决同业竞争问题",本次整合是预期 之中; 2 7月末中国重工集中对下资产进行处置与配置,包括购买港船 重工相关民船建造资产及武船航融 100%股权,出售渤船重工 100%股 权、宜昌船机停业解散等,为后续上市公司的"两船合并 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2] Core Views - The company's asset management and credit businesses achieved positive growth, and its IPO market share increased [2] - The company's investment banking business maintained its leading position, with a significant increase in IPO market share [3] - The asset management business grew against the trend, with an increase in management scale [4] - The brokerage business continued to face pressure, showing a slight decline [5] - The company's interest income increased, while its margin financing market share decreased [8] - The proprietary business was a major drag on the company's performance [9] - The report predicts that the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023-2025 will be 1.15 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.75 yuan, respectively, and the net asset value per share will be 15.25 yuan, 16.07 yuan, and 16.91 yuan, respectively [10] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 121.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.17% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.55% [2] - The company's ROE for the first half of 2023 was 4.53%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The company's investment banking revenue was 3.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.23% [3] - The company's asset management business achieved net income of 11.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.25% [4] - The company's brokerage business achieved net income of 13.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.57% [5] - The company's interest income was 3.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45% [8] - The company's proprietary business achieved net income of 15.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.05% [9] Market Position - The company ranked second in the industry in terms of equity underwriting amount, with a total of 121.21 billion yuan [3] - The company ranked first in the industry in terms of IPO sponsorship projects, with 5 projects and an underwriting scale of 5.45 billion yuan [3] - The company's IPO underwriting market share increased from 1.55% in 2022 to 12.15% [3] - The company ranked third in the industry in terms of bond underwriting, with a total of 1,454 projects and a total amount of 1,545.55 billion yuan [3] - The company's asset management scale reached 1,215.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45% [4] - The company's margin financing balance was 121.21 billion yuan, with a market share of 5.13% [8] Future Outlook - The report expects the company's performance to improve as the market recovers, consolidating its leading position in the industry [10] - The company's development is expected to accelerate if it successfully sells its AssetMark equity [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][11]. Core Views - The company is in the process of establishing a new business model in educational publishing, with a focus on "AI + Education" initiatives [2][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 4.025 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.83% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 299 million yuan, down 27.22% year-on-year [2][6]. - The gross margin improved to 34.21%, an increase of 2.73 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.84%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.025 billion yuan, with a net profit of 299 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 330 million yuan [2]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 34.21%, reflecting an improvement, while the net margin was 8.84%, showing a decline [2]. - In Q2 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.39%, but the net profit decreased by 21.82% to 147 million yuan [2]. Business Operations - The company has maintained stable operations, with improvements in the gross margin of its publishing business [2][5]. - The revenue from the company's core businesses, including educational materials and digital textbooks, has shown mixed results, with some segments experiencing growth while others declined [2][5]. - The company is actively developing new educational products and expanding its marketing channels, including the establishment of reading spaces and partnerships with educational institutions [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its focus on the "AI + Education" sector, with projections for net profits of 801 million yuan in 2024, 959 million yuan in 2025, and 1.121 billion yuan in 2026 [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.89 yuan in 2024, 1.07 yuan in 2025, and 1.25 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times respectively [6][7].

2024年09月05日 证券研究报告|公司研究|公司点评 软通动力(301236) 投资评级 买入 维持评级 2024 半年报点评:新业务架构完成首次亮相,构建 "软硬协同+自主可控"产业闭环 2024年09月04日 收盘价(元): 33.66 报告摘要 事件：公司发布半年度业绩报告。2024年上半年实现营业收入 125.26亿元(+45.98%), 归母净利润-1.54亿元(-176.17%),扣非净利润-2.10亿元(-247.04%)。经营活动产生 的现金流量净额-3.71 亿元(+57.89%)。 明确"四大业务"增长战略,完成"软硕一体化"业务架构首次亮相。 � 公司营收规模实现同比大幅增长，主要系年初完成对同方计算机的收购，合并报表范围 增加所致。公司明确新时期"四大业务"增长战略,在强力构建计算产品与数字基础设 施新的业务增长板块的同时,将数字能源与智算服务作为新兴业务进行长期布局,并积 极拓展国际市场。从营收结构看,软件与数字技术服务板块营收 85.13 亿元,占比 67.97%,保持在ICT、金融、互联网、运营商等重点行业核心大客户业务的份额领先。 计算产品与数字基础设施服务板块营收 39. ...

眽眻眽眿 年 眻睄 月 眻睁 日 证券研究报告|公司研究|公司点评 国联证券（睁眻眼眿着睁）眽眻眽眿 年半年报点评 投资评级 买入 资管经纪逆势上涨，关注整合重组进度 公司 睃 月 眾眼 日披露 眽眻眽眿 年半年报 眽眻眽眿 年上半年公司实现总营收 眼眻.睃睁 亿元（-眾睄.睄眼%），实现归母净利润 眻.睃睃 亿元（-睃着.眾睄%），扣非后归母净利润 眻.睂睂 亿元（-睃睂.眻眻%），基本每 股收益 眻.眻眾 元（-睃着.睂眼%）。公司 眽眻眽眿 年上半年 ROE 为 眻.眿睃%，较上年 同期减少 眾.眻眻pct。 资管业务收入并表大增，管理规模实现正增 眽眻眽眿 年上半年，国联证券资管正式开业，实现公司证券资产管理业务向国 联证券资管平稳过渡。截至 眽眿H眼，公司受合并国联基金影响，实现资管业 务净收入 眾.眼眽 亿元（+眽睂眼.眿眾%），资管受托资金 眼眽眿睃.眼睂 亿元（+眼眽.眻眼%）， 其中公募基金（含大集合）资产规模 眼眼睄.睄眿 亿元（+睃眾.眿睃%）；集合资产规 模 眾眿睁.眿着 亿元（+眼眻睃%）。公募基金方面，国联基金资产管理总规模 眼睃眾眾.睄眻 亿元，较去年末增长 眽眾.眽睂%。 经纪 ...

眽眻眽眿 年 眻睄 月 眻睁 日 证券研究报告|公司研究|公司点评 国泰君安（睁眻眼眽眼眼）眽眻眽眿 年半年报点评 投资评级 买入 经纪市占率提升，整体业绩稳健 公司 睃 月 眽睄 日披露 眽眻眽眿 年半年报 眽眻眽眿 年上半年公司实现总营收 眼睂眻.睂眻 亿元（-睁.睃睄%），实现归母净利润 着眻.眼睁 亿元（-眼眽.睁眿%），扣非后归母净利润 眿着.着睂 亿元（-眼着.睂睃%），基本 每股收益 眻.着眽 元（-眼眿.睂着%）。公司 眽眻眽眿 年上半年 ROE 为 眾.眼眼%，较上 年同期减少 眻.睁眿pct。 债券承销数据亮眼，股权业务降幅与行业相近 眽眻眽眿 年上半年证券公司承销融资总额共 眿睂,眼眻眾.眼睁 亿元（-眿.睄%）（不含地 方政府债）。其中，股权融资总额 睄睄眾.眼睂 亿元（-睃眼.眾%）；债券融资总额 眿睁,眼眻睄.睄睄 亿元（+眿.眾%）。市场发行规模大幅收缩的背景下，公司积极把握 债市机遇，债权融资显著增长支撑主承销额逆势爬坡。截至 眽眿H眼，公司证 券主承销额 眿,眾眿着.睃睄 亿元（+眽睁.眿%），市占率 睄.眽眾%,较 眽眾 年增加 眼.眼眼pct， 行业排名第三。其中，股权主 ...

2024年09月07日 证券研究报告|公司研究|军工公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|------------| | | | | | 海格通信（002465） | 投资评级 | 买入 | | 2024 年中报点评:北三换装助力导航业务显著增长, | | 首次评级 | | | 2024年 09 月 06 日 | | | 布局"卫星互联网+低空经济+无人系统"新兴领域 | 收盘价(元): | 8.64 | | | 目标价(元): | 11.50 | | ◆ 事件：８月 24 日，公司发布 2024年半年度报告。2024 年上半年公司 | 司基本数据 | | | 营收 25.91 亿元 (-9.93%)，归母净利润 1.96 亿元（-37.11%），扣非归母 | 总股本(百万股) | 2,481.83 | | 浄利润 1.08 亿元 ( ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company benefits from the recovery in downstream demand for PCB tools, with new businesses in materials and equipment rapidly expanding [1] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 713 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.30%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.05% to 89 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on high-end fields such as AI and semiconductors, optimizing its product structure, and expanding into emerging markets [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.96%, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 28.20% to 48 million yuan [1] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 34.66%, down 1.58 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.49%, down 5.68 percentage points [1] - The company expects revenues of 1.69 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan, and 2.50 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 265 million yuan, 355 million yuan, and 448 million yuan [1] Business Segments - The PCB-related main business achieved stable growth, with tool revenue reaching 541 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.10%, and grinding and polishing materials revenue of 70 million yuan, up 28.58% [1] - New businesses such as intelligent CNC equipment and functional film materials saw significant growth, with revenues of 24 million yuan and 68 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 265.50% and 146.34% [1] Market Expansion - The company is increasing its efforts in overseas market expansion, with overseas revenue in H1 2024 reaching 35.14 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 195.91% [1] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in vehicle-mounted light control film technology, with small batch deliveries to several Tier-1 and Tier-2 manufacturers [1]