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Shi Jie Yin Hang
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Distressed Asset Management and Divestment Practices by Deposit Guarantee Funds in Serbia and Ukraine
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-11 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Effective and efficient management and sale of distressed assets are crucial for minimizing risks to financial stability and supporting economic growth. The experiences of deposit guarantee funds in Serbia and Ukraine, along with practices from Western European asset management companies, provide valuable insights for improving bank liquidation frameworks [20][25][31]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The paper summarizes the asset management and divestment experiences of deposit guarantee funds in Serbia and Ukraine, highlighting key factors for successful distressed asset management, including sound governance, comprehensive strategies, active asset management, transparent valuation, and competitive sales [20][26]. Chapter 1: Introduction - The introduction outlines the importance of addressing non-performing loans (NPLs) for financial stability and economic growth, emphasizing the need for effective asset management and divestment strategies [29][30]. Chapter 2: Asset Sales - Serbia's Experience - Serbia's NPL resolution strategy was initiated in 2015, leading to a significant reduction in NPLs from a peak of 21.6% to below 5% within three years. The Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) played a crucial role in managing distressed assets, overseeing a portfolio valued at approximately EUR 8.2 billion in 2016 [37][40][42]. - The DIA's governance framework is based on the Law on the Deposit Insurance Agency, ensuring autonomy and independence in its operations [43][44]. - The DIA's strategic plan focuses on maximizing recovery value through efficient asset management and frequent distribution of proceeds to creditors [46]. Chapter 3: Asset Sales - Ukraine's Experience - The report does not provide specific details on Ukraine's experience in this section. Chapter 4: Important Aspects of Asset Management and Divestment - Key aspects include the establishment of clear legal frameworks, comprehensive asset management strategies, active management to maximize returns, and transparent asset valuation processes [25][26]. Chapter 5: Key Recommendations for Agencies Responsible for Bank Liquidation - Recommendations emphasize the need for strategic planning in asset management, including setting clear objectives, optimizing disposal processes, and ensuring transparency in sales [26][29]. Annexes - Annex 1 provides an overview of bank resolution and liquidation frameworks in Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern European countries, while Annex 2 summarizes asset management practices from various European asset management companies [35][36].
Tonga - Poverty and Equity Assessment 2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-10 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - Tonga's economic growth has been historically weak and has faced significant challenges due to multiple shocks, including natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have potentially reversed previous welfare gains [22][54]. - Despite these challenges, poverty and inequality in Tonga fell substantially between 2015 and 2021, with the national poverty rate declining from 27.4% to 20.6% [25][26]. - The report highlights the critical role of remittances in poverty reduction, indicating that without them, the number of poor individuals would have been 50% higher [35][38]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report utilizes the 2021 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) to assess poverty and inequality in Tonga, filling critical knowledge gaps [22]. - Improvements in monetary well-being were observed, with household ownership of key assets increasing and access to basic services improving [28]. - The report identifies remittances as a significant driver of poverty reduction, with nearly 90% of households receiving them [35][38]. Introduction - Tonga is classified as an upper-middle-income nation with a GNI per capita of US$7,160, facing unique developmental challenges due to its geographical isolation [53]. - The economic growth rate has historically lagged behind other Pacific Island countries, with a series of shocks significantly hindering growth [54][56]. Poverty and Inequality Patterns - The poverty rate declined across both rural and urban regions, with urban Tongatapu having a lower poverty rate compared to 'Eua and Ongo Niua [25]. - Spatial disparities in well-being persist, with urban areas accommodating a significant portion of the impoverished population [25][28]. Human Capital and Labor Market - Labor force participation remains low, and there are significant skills mismatches in the domestic labor market, impacting employment opportunities [30]. - The average child born in Tonga is projected to be only 53% as productive as they could be under optimal conditions, highlighting the need for improved human capital [30][31]. Poverty and Social Protection - Current social assistance programs have limited coverage and impact on poverty reduction, necessitating policy changes to increase benefit levels and coverage [32][34]. - The report suggests that substantial increases in remittances have been a more significant factor in poverty reduction than social assistance programs [35]. Conclusion and Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for developing effective social protection systems and enhancing human capital to ensure sustainable poverty reduction [47][50]. - It calls for a more in-depth investigation of the impacts of temporary labor schemes on the private sector and overall household outcomes [51].
Offshore Wind Development Program
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-09 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the offshore wind industry in Romania, but it highlights significant potential for growth and development in this sector, suggesting a favorable outlook for investment opportunities. Core Insights - Offshore wind (OSW) technology can deliver large volumes of energy at competitive prices compared to conventional generation technologies, with Romania having the potential for up to 7 GW of OSW capacity by the early 2030s [18][19] - The Black Sea region is expected to develop a regional market for OSW, which could provide further opportunities for Romanian suppliers [19] - The report emphasizes the need for a robust policy framework and clarity on energy strategy to fully leverage Romania's offshore wind resources [25][31] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy in Europe - The EU aims for at least 60 GW of OSW capacity by 2030 and 300 GW by 2050, with the Black Sea identified as a key area for development [20][21] - The European Commission's REPowerEU Plan seeks to accelerate OSW development in response to geopolitical challenges [21][22] Renewable Energy in Romania - Romania's electricity supply has transitioned significantly, with a target of 30.7% renewable energy in gross final energy consumption by 2030, which is expected to increase [24] - The report models a potential installation of 15 GW of OSW by 2050, alongside significant onshore wind and solar capacity [24] The Opportunity and Potential Impact of Offshore Wind in Romania - OSW can provide a local, competitively priced, large-scale clean electricity source and create long-term jobs [25][30] - The report outlines the need for clarity on energy strategy, including targets for OSW deployment and significant upgrades to the transmission network [25][30] Roadmap for Offshore Wind in Romania - The report provides a strategic vision for OSW development, considering both low and high growth scenarios, with recommendations for enabling actions by the government [35][36] - Key recommendations include establishing OSW energy areas, developing a new OSW law, and upgrading the transmission network [25][38]
Somalia Poverty and Equity Assessment
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-09 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Somalia has made macroeconomic progress, achieving a historic HIPC completion point with external debt falling to 6% of GDP in 2023, and joined the East African Community in March 2024, but growth has not been sufficient to increase GDP per capita [41] - Over half of the population lives below the national poverty line (54%), with the highest poverty rate among the nomadic population (78%) and the lowest in urban areas (46%) [42] - Non-monetary poverty is even higher than monetary poverty, with over three-quarters of the population considered non-monetary poor, particularly among the nomadic population (95%) [44] - Education inequality is significant, with regional differences driving inequalities in access to education and services [45] - The report focuses on three deep-dive topics: Somali livelihoods, shocks (particularly climate shocks), and the welfare conditions of the nomadic population [46] Summary by Sections Part A: Poverty and Economic Context - Poverty remains high in Somalia, particularly in rural and nomadic areas, with unchanged national poverty rates from 2017 to 2022 despite urbanization [42][43] - Demographic factors such as household size, IDP status, and education level are associated with poverty levels [43] - The economy is exposed to climatic shocks, affecting consumption and poverty rates [41] Part B: Livelihoods - The Somali labor market features very low labor force participation (LFP) and a high dependency on wage employment, with limited agricultural opportunities [47][48] - Household enterprises account for a significant share of employment but rarely generate sufficient profit to lift households out of poverty [51] - The dual labor market shows that better jobs are concentrated among educated individuals and those from wealthier households [50] Part C: Policy Recommendations - Continued economic progress and stability are essential for poverty reduction, with a focus on harnessing urbanization for improved service delivery and strengthening rural/nomadic livelihoods [57][58] - Policies should aim to increase labor demand for low-skilled workers and improve access to education and services for marginalized groups [59][60]
How Does Social Protection Impact Social Cohesion in the Sahel? A Review of Existing Evidence and Gaps
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-08 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Social protection programs in the Sahel have been shown to improve various outcomes for beneficiaries, including consumption, productivity, resilience to climate change, and health and education for future generations. These programs also positively impact local economies and can strengthen social cohesion by addressing poverty and vulnerability [2][10][36]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Conceptual Framework - Social cohesion is defined as the relationships among members of society and the state, characterized by trust, inclusive identity, and cooperation for the common good [11][12]. - Social protection can affect social cohesion through various pathways, including direct program activities and indirect outcomes such as reduced poverty [16]. Part 2: Current Evidence on Social Protection's Impact on Social Cohesion - **Horizontal Social Cohesion – Within Groups** - Safety nets in Mauritania improved trust and cooperation among community members [21]. - Economic inclusion interventions in Niger and Burkina Faso increased trust and cooperation for the common good among program participants [22]. - Beneficiaries in Mali increased resource-sharing with non-beneficiaries, indicating cooperation for a larger good [23]. - **Horizontal Social Cohesion – Between Groups** - Limited evidence exists on the impacts of social protection on social cohesion between displaced communities and host communities [29]. - **Vertical Social Cohesion – Between Citizens and State** - Perceptions of fairness in selection processes vary significantly, influencing trust in the implementing agency [31]. - In Niger, a majority of non-selected individuals exhibited vertical trust regarding the beneficiary identification process [31]. Conclusions and Next Steps - Social protection has demonstrated positive impacts on social cohesion in the Sahel, but negative dynamics can also occur. The evidence base has gaps, particularly regarding the experiences of non-beneficiaries and the impacts on social cohesion between different communities [36][37]. - Future research will focus on understanding the mechanisms through which social protection impacts social cohesion and identifying design features that can enhance these impacts [38].
Unpacking Informality
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-08 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the urgent need to expand retirement savings coverage for informal workers in Indonesia, highlighting that informal workers constitute 60% of the total workforce, yet less than 10% actively contribute to retirement savings schemes [11][12][14] - It identifies the challenges faced by informal workers in participating in retirement savings programs, including low income, geographical barriers, and lack of financial literacy [15][17][59] - The report suggests that a tailored approach is necessary to address the diverse needs of informal workers, as a one-size-fits-all strategy is ineffective [15][60] Summary by Sections A. Introduction - Indonesia's National Social Security System (SJSN) was launched in 2004, aiming to provide protection against health and employment-related risks for all workers [9][10] - Despite the establishment of various social security programs, the coverage for informal workers remains low, with only 7.5% contributing to annuitized pension programs and 9.4% enrolled in public defined contribution pensions [12] B. Who are Indonesia's Informal Workers? - Informal workers are defined primarily by their employment status, with approximately 78 million informal workers identified in 2021 [18] - The report categorizes informal workers into four groups based on their employment characteristics, with non-digital non-salaried workers being the largest group [28] C. Informal Workers' Retirement Savings Coverage - On average, 43% of informal workers have some form of retirement savings, but only 17% contribute to a retirement savings scheme managed by BPJS or other private plans [43][44] - Coverage is highest among salaried workers with contracts (74%) and digital non-salaried workers (64%), while it is lowest among non-digital non-salaried workers [44] D. Understanding the Challenges to Retirement Savings Participation - The report identifies unavailability of funds as the primary reason for not saving for retirement, with 84% of respondents citing this issue [57] - Other challenges include unfamiliarity with the JHT program, perceived ineligibility, and concerns over income irregularity [58][60]
Population Mobility in the Sahel
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-08 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Population mobility in the Sahel is crucial for livelihoods and economic security, driven by economic motives such as wage differences, as well as non-economic factors like marriage and education [2][6] - Insecurity and climate change have led to an increase in distressed migrants and internally displaced persons (IDPs) [2][3] - Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) programs need to be adjusted to support migrants and their families, ensuring they are not penalized [3][4] Summary by Sections Key Recommendations - Policy frameworks for social protection should reflect mobility-related considerations and improve access to basic services and information on safe migration practices [4][5] - Operational modifications to ASP programs should ensure that migrants do not miss out on benefits due to administrative blind spots [4] Introduction - Economic factors significantly influence population mobility in the Sahel, with many seeking better livelihoods due to poverty and unemployment [6][7] - Internal mobility can diversify income and enhance resilience against climate and conflict-related shocks [6] Describing Internal Mobility - Over 47 million individuals in the Sahel have previously resided elsewhere within their country, with internal migration patterns varying by country [8][10] - Economic motives are the primary driver of voluntary internal mobility, with 77% of surveyed migrants citing economic reasons [10] Patterns of Voluntary Internal Mobility - Migration predominantly occurs along an east-west axis towards labor-intensive work centers, with rural-to-rural migration being significant in several countries [13][14] - The willingness to migrate varies, with 20% in Mali to 41% in Senegal expressing a desire to move [13] Forced Migration - Violent conflict and climate change are increasing forced migration, with IDPs projected to rise from 3.4 million in 2022 to 4.2 million by 2025 [16] - Climate change exacerbates economic migration, intertwining voluntary and forced migration dynamics [16][17] Labor Market Profiles of Voluntary Internal Migrants - Unemployment is common among internal migrants in urban areas, with the tertiary sector being the most prevalent area of work [18][20] - Higher education correlates with higher wages in urban areas, although exceptions exist [20] Vulnerabilities Associated with Migration - Migrants face risks such as social isolation, lack of access to services, and exploitation during transit and at destinations [22][23] - Many migrants experience unemployment and underemployment, leading to economic precarity [23] Implications for Adaptive Social Protection Programs - ASP must be designed to support the needs of mobile populations, recognizing migration patterns and adjusting policies accordingly [24][28] - Program eligibility criteria should be reviewed to ensure internal migrants can benefit from ASP programs [29] Conclusion - Modifications to ASP programs should integrate mobility-related considerations to enhance support for migrants and maximize the benefits of population mobility in the Sahel [37]
新兴市场的网络安全经济学(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-08 07:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the cybersecurity industry in emerging markets Core Insights - Cybersecurity is essential for the socioeconomic progress of nations, particularly in the context of increasing digitalization and associated risks [32] - The report highlights significant gaps in understanding cyber incidents and their consequences, which hinder resource mobilization for cybersecurity, especially in developing countries [33] - The analysis reveals a 21% annual growth rate in publicly disclosed cyber incidents globally, with upper-middle-income countries experiencing a 37% increase [18][35] - The economic impact of cyber incidents is particularly severe in developing countries, where the average disclosed incident has a larger impact compared to high-income countries [43] Summary by Sections Chapter 1: The Threat Landscape - The report identifies over 30,000 publicly disclosed cyber incidents from 2014 to 2023, with a notable increase during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war [34][38] - Developing countries account for approximately 30% of disclosed cyber incidents, with Latin America and the Caribbean showing the fastest growth at 25% annually [39] - Financial motives dominate cyber incidents globally, accounting for 74% of incidents, while political motives are more prevalent in developing countries [40][41] Chapter 2: The Economic Costs of Cyber Incidents - Reducing major cyber incidents could increase GDP per capita by approximately 1.5% in developing countries [44] - The average cost of a ransomware attack surged by 13% from 2022 to 2023, disproportionately affecting small and medium enterprises [45] - The systemic nature of cyber risk can lead to widespread disruptions, as illustrated by the NotPetya cyberattack, which resulted in over $7.3 billion in consumer losses [46] Chapter 3: The Cybersecurity Market - The global cybersecurity market is expected to grow by 14% in 2024, reaching nearly 0.2% of the world's GDP, with cloud security and data privacy as key growth areas [48] - The industry faces challenges such as a shortage of skilled cybersecurity professionals, with over 4 million unfilled positions in 2023 [49] - High-income countries dominate the cybersecurity market, with government spending on cybersecurity significantly higher than in developing countries [50]
基于登记的贫困和社会排斥测量(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-08 07:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under review. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of developing a robust methodology for assessing poverty and social exclusion in Croatia, leveraging the forthcoming Central Register of the Population to fill data gaps and improve monitoring [19][23][26]. Overview of Key Concepts and Data Sources in the EU - The report outlines the official definitions of poverty and social exclusion indicators required by Eurostat, highlighting the shift from survey-based to administrative data for tracking these issues [29][30]. - It defines key concepts such as household disposable income and at-risk-of-poverty (AROP), with AROP being set at 60% of the national median equivalized disposable income after social transfers [31][34]. - The report discusses social exclusion as a multidimensional issue, emphasizing the need to evaluate deprivation across various aspects of life, not just income [35][36]. Croatia's Central Register of the Population - The report details the development of Croatia's Central Register of the Population, which aims to enhance data collection and analysis for poverty and social exclusion metrics [26][28]. - It highlights the importance of administrative data sources in measuring poverty and social exclusion, noting the challenges and potential solutions for utilizing these data effectively [10][26]. Register-Based Poverty Measurements in Croatia - The report examines existing measures of at-risk-of-poverty in Croatia, identifying challenges such as incomplete tax income data and under-reporting of income [10][35]. - Recommendations for improving poverty measurement methodologies in Croatia are provided, focusing on data imputation and addressing under-reporting issues [10][50]. Register-Based Measurements of Social Exclusion in Croatia - The report discusses the existing approaches to measuring social exclusion in Croatia and offers recommendations for simplifying the AROPE rate and developing domain-specific indicators [5][59]. - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive monitoring system to track social exclusion indicators at subnational levels [7][79]. Institutional Set-Up for Tracking Poverty and Social Exclusion - The report suggests potential institutional arrangements for data collection and analysis, including joint implementations by various ministries and agencies [6][71]. - It outlines the activities and requirements necessary for effective monitoring of poverty and social exclusion indicators [6][71]. Next Steps - The report concludes with a roadmap for the next steps in developing the monitoring system for poverty and social exclusion, emphasizing the importance of stakeholder engagement and data integration [8][91].
南共体投资环境记分卡(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-08 07:15
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized SADC Investment Climate Scorecard Public Disclosure Authorized A program supported by: And implemented by: © 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this wor ...