公共披露经授权 公共披露经授权 公共披露经授权 公共披露经授权 政策研究工作论文 11110 当聚合具有误导性 在贫困的单元级小区域估计中的偏差 with Aggregate Data Paul Andres Corral Rodas 贫困与公平全球部门 2025年5月 政策研究工作论文11110 摘要 本文探讨为何仅使用汇总数据作为协变量的家庭层 面模型所产生的小区域贫困估计值存在系统性偏差 。分析表明，这种偏差源于模型无法捕捉家庭间福 利的完整变异，因为它们完全依赖于在家庭层面汇 总的协变量， 在地理层面上。通过基于模型的模拟，该论文表 明，当模型模拟的福利经验变异度最接近区域层 面的福利真实经验方差时，这些模型中的偏差最 小。这一发现也对单元层面的模型偏差具有启示 意义。 This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to 提供对其研究的开放获取，并为全球发展政策讨论做出贡献。政策 研究工作论文也发布在网站 http: ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, with a projected GDP growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by increased public investment and domestic consumption [4][27]. Core Insights - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated to 6.9% in Q1 2025, up from 5.9% in Q1 2024, driven by increases in domestic consumption and investment [2][11]. - Retail sales saw a significant increase of 10.8% year-on-year in March 2025, marking the highest monthly growth in nearly two years, attributed to rising wages and improved purchasing power [20][21]. - Industrial production improved with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% in March 2025, compared to 4.8% in March 2024, driven by sectors such as apparel, electronics, and machinery [13][31]. - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) commitments decreased by 9.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid global trade uncertainties, although FDI disbursements remained resilient [17][18]. Economic Performance - The average monthly income in the first three months of 2025 rose by 9.5% compared to the same period in 2024, leading to a real wage growth of 6% [20]. - The inflation rate in March 2025 increased to 3.1%, driven by rising food and housing prices, but remained below the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 4.5-5% for 2025 [22][23]. - The trade surplus decreased to $3.2 billion in Q1 2025, down from $7.7 billion in Q1 2024, due to a slowdown in export growth to 10.6% from 16.8% [11][12]. Fiscal Overview - Fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 reached 36.7% of the annual budget, up from 31.7% in the same period of 2024, primarily due to increased VAT and corporate income tax collections [3][27]. - Public investment disbursement rates slowed to 9.5% of the annual plan by the end of March 2025, compared to 12.3% in the previous year, posing challenges for achieving the GDP growth target [27].

公开披露授权 ZAMBIA 对获取正义和替代性纠纷解决 系统的评估 公开披露授权 公开披露授权 世界银行的治理与制度总项目得到了 ZAMBIA 对获取正义和替代性纠纷解决系统的评 估 世界银行的治理与制度总项目得到了 赞比亚司法部门改革支持项目（P180159） © 2025 世界银行 1818 H 街西北区, 华盛顿特区 DC 2043 3 电话: 202-473-1000; 互联网: www.worldbank.org 版权所有 这项工作是世界银行的产物。本项工作中表达的观点、解释和结论不一定反映世界银行执行董事的观点或他 们所代表政府的观点。 世界银行不保证本作品中包含的数据的准确性、完整性或时效性，也不对信息中出现的任何错误、遗漏或差 异承担任何责任，或对使用或未能使用所提供的信息、方法、流程或结论承担责任。作品中显示的边界、颜 色、面值、链接/脚注和其他信息并不代表世界银行对任何领土的法律地位或对相关边界的认可或接受。引用 其他作者的作品并不意味着世界银行认可这些作者的观点或其作品的内容。 本报告中任何内容均不构成或不得解释为对世界银行的特权和豁免权构成限制或放弃，所有这些特权和豁免 权均特此保留。 ...

良好实践 增强土地 权利确认 IN FORESTLANDS OF THE EAST ASIA AND 太平洋地区 公开披露授权 公开披露授权 公开披露授权 公开披露授权 © 2025 国际复兴开发银行 / 世界银行 1818 H Street NW Washin gton DC 20433 电话：202 -473-1000 互联网： www. worldbank.org 这项工作是由世界银行的工作人员与外部合作者共同完成的。作品中表达的观点、解释和结论不一定反 映世界银行、其执行董事会或他们所代表政府的观点。 世界银行不保证本作品中包含的数据的准确性、完整性或时效性，也不对任何信息中的错误、遗漏或差异 ，或对使用或未使用所提供的信息、方法、程序或结论的责任，以及因使用或未使用所提供的信息、方法 、程序或结论而产生的责任承担任何责任。本作品中任何地图上显示的国界、颜色、名称和其他信息并不 意味着世界银行对任何领土的法律地位或对相关国界的认可或接受。 此处所载任何内容均不构成或不应被视为对世界银行特权与豁免权的限制或放弃，所有这些特权与豁 免权均予保留。 权利与许可 本文中的内容受版权保护。因为世界银行鼓励传播其 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The study highlights significant welfare disparities between in-camp refugees and host communities in Ethiopia, with in-camp refugees experiencing 60 percent lower consumption per capita and poverty rates that are 40 percentage points higher than those of host communities [2][9][46] - Employment opportunities for in-camp refugees are severely limited, leading to a reliance on humanitarian aid, which is insufficient to alleviate high poverty levels [2][11][27] - The welfare of in-camp refugees is positively influenced by favorable host community characteristics, such as better socio-economic conditions and positive attitudes towards refugees [12][50][67] - Despite the introduction of policies allowing refugees to work outside camps, many still face barriers to accessing better employment opportunities, which perpetuates their dependence on aid [63][66] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the shift from humanitarian assistance to a development-oriented approach in addressing the socio-economic challenges faced by refugees, emphasizing the importance of welfare and poverty metrics [7][21] Data - The analysis utilizes data from the 2023 Socio-Economic Survey of Refugees in Ethiopia (SESRE), which includes extensive information on both refugees and host communities, allowing for a comparative analysis of welfare outcomes [8][29][30] Results - The findings reveal that in-camp refugees are significantly poorer than host communities, with a consumption per capita that is 60 percent lower and a poverty rate that is 40 percentage points higher [9][46] - Limited employment opportunities and reliance on aid contribute to the "trapped poverty" experienced by in-camp refugees, hindering their self-reliance [48][62] - The socio-economic environment of host communities plays a crucial role in shaping refugee welfare, with better conditions leading to improved outcomes for refugees [50][67] Employment Outside Camps - Approximately 40 percent of in-camp refugees seek employment outside camps, but this does not necessarily lead to improved welfare outcomes [57][66] - Working outside camps is associated with a greater sense of autonomy, despite the lack of formal employment opportunities and the risks involved [59][60] Conclusion - The report concludes that expanding access to employment opportunities for refugees is essential for fostering self-reliance and reducing aid dependency, highlighting the importance of Ethiopia's recent policy changes [63][65]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The physical characteristics of learning spaces significantly impact education quality and student learning outcomes, explaining approximately 16 percent of the variation in student performance for children aged 5 and older [19][44] - Quality early learning environments are essential for children's development, ensuring they feel safe, empowered, and free to learn actively [19][44] - Play-based learning is crucial for young children's knowledge and skills acquisition, emphasizing the need for environments that promote play, exploration, and hands-on learning [20][45] - There is a robust demand from country governments to expand access to quality pre-primary education through infrastructure investments, with 40 percent of the World Bank's education portfolio dedicated to upgrading or introducing new education facilities [23][41] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report highlights the significant impact of physical learning environments on educational outcomes, particularly in early childhood education [19] - It emphasizes the importance of play-based learning and the need for environments that support such educational approaches [20] Introduction - The guidance note aims to assist World Bank teams in supporting governments in designing and building environmentally sustainable pre-primary education facilities that promote quality early education [31] Quality Physical Learning Environments - Quality physical learning environments are linked to improved educational outcomes, with specific characteristics influencing learning [44] - The report identifies five principles for quality early learning spaces: safety, pedagogical organization, spatial flexibility, empowerment, and child-centered design [44] Play-based Approach - Play is a fundamental method for young children to gain knowledge and skills, with various forms of play contributing to cognitive, social, emotional, and physical development [45] - The report discusses the importance of well-planned play environments, such as corner play, in enhancing child development [45] Environmentally Sustainable Educational Infrastructure - The report outlines the need for environmentally sustainable infrastructure in education, linking it to climate resilience and reduced greenhouse gas emissions [50][52] - It emphasizes the importance of integrating green design practices in educational infrastructure projects to create healthier environments and conserve natural resources [51] The Role of Key Stakeholders - Key stakeholders in World Bank projects include government entities, communities, and experts in relevant fields, all of whom play a role in the planning and implementation of pre-primary education infrastructure [55][56] Preparation and Planning - The preparation phase involves assessing the need for early childhood care and education (ECCE) facilities, determining scope and costs, and establishing criteria for site selection [25][26] - A design brief is prepared to guide architects and designers, ensuring alignment with educational and environmental goals [70] Design - The design phase focuses on developing standards and criteria for pre-primary facilities, considering safety, accessibility, and environmental sustainability [71] Construction - The construction phase includes preparing bid packages and selecting contractors, with an emphasis on environmentally efficient practices [72] Operations and Maintenance - Sustainability of educational facilities relies on proper maintenance and usage, with a focus on planning and budgeting for ongoing operations [73]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - Ethiopia has increased paid maternity leave from 90 to 120 days and introduced three days of paid paternity leave in 2019, reflecting a significant reform in parental leave policies [1][16][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of job-protected leave for both parents, which is critical for health, economic, and social development outcomes [1][5] - Ethiopia's experience serves as a potential model for other countries aiming to enhance their parental leave policies [5][24] Summary by Sections Maternity and Paternity Leave Policies - In 2019, Ethiopia's Labor Proclamation No. 1156/2019 established 120 days of maternity leave and three days of paternity leave for private sector workers [16][24] - The average global maternity leave is only 14 weeks, with Sub-Saharan Africa having a lower percentage of countries with such policies [5][12] Socioeconomic Context - Ethiopia's rapid economic growth, with an average annual growth rate of 9.5% over the past 15 years, has influenced labor reform demands [18][19] - The political transition in Ethiopia created a conducive environment for comprehensive legal reform, including labor laws [23][24] Stakeholder Engagement - The reform process involved tripartite negotiations among the Confederation of Ethiopian Trade Unions, Ethiopian Employers' Federation, and the government, highlighting the role of social dialogue [25][26] - Trade unions played a crucial role in advocating for extended maternity leave and the introduction of paternity leave, emphasizing equal treatment for all workers [35][36] Implementation Challenges - The report identifies challenges in disseminating the new Labor Proclamation and ensuring compliance among employers [44][46] - There is a lack of data on the uptake of maternity and paternity leave, which complicates the assessment of the reform's effectiveness [46][48] Lessons Learned - Key lessons from Ethiopia's reform experience include the importance of stakeholder alignment, political transition, and the use of evidence to support policy changes [49][50] - The report suggests that adequate paid leave policies can enhance social welfare and economic performance, countering the notion that they impede foreign investment [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under review. Core Insights - The primary obstacles faced by firms in the EU27 are an "inadequately educated workforce" and "tax rates," with the former cited in 99 out of 186 NUTS2 regions and the latter in 51 regions, indicating that nearly 74% of regions identify one of these two issues as their top concern [21][23][28] - Economic disparities within the EU27 are more pronounced at the sub-national level than at the country level, with the highest-income NUTS2 regions earning 2.7 times more than the lowest-income regions, compared to a 2.4 times difference at the country level [2][3] - The European Union has implemented targeted funds to promote regional convergence, but the success of these initiatives has been uneven, and the pace of convergence has slowed in recent years [4][8] Summary by Sections Business Environment Assessment - The World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) provide a comprehensive view of the business environment across the EU27, with nearly 19,000 interviews conducted with business leaders from 2018 to 2022 [11][13] - The surveys reveal that firms' perceptions of obstacles are critical for understanding the business environment, with a focus on the top obstacles identified by firms [21][22] Regional Disparities - The report highlights significant income disparities among sub-national regions, with poorer regions more likely to cite tax rates as their primary obstacle, while wealthier regions focus on workforce education [28][31] - The analysis indicates that country-level factors play a more significant role in determining firms' perceptions of obstacles than regional characteristics [31][32] Firm-Level Analysis - More productive firms are less likely to report workforce education or tax rates as their top obstacles, suggesting that productivity may mitigate the impact of these issues [37][39] - Larger firms tend to report an inadequately educated workforce as a top obstacle but are less likely to cite tax rates, indicating a complex relationship between firm size, productivity, and perceived obstacles [37][40] Future Research Directions - The report sets the stage for future briefs that will delve deeper into the relationship between firm performance, management practices, and the broader business environment in the EU27 [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the electricity distribution industry Core Insights - The operations concession model is presented as a viable alternative to full privatization, allowing for private sector efficiencies while retaining government ownership of assets [22][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of private sector participation (PSP) in improving operational performance and addressing challenges faced by state-owned utilities [15][20] - Case studies from Côte d'Ivoire and India illustrate the successful implementation of operations concessions, highlighting the model's adaptability to local contexts [58] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report discusses the historical context of power sector reforms initiated in the 1990s, aimed at creating commercially viable utilities through restructuring and private sector involvement [13][14] 2. The Operations Concession Model in Electricity Distribution - The operations concession model allows a private concessionaire to manage electricity distribution while the public utility retains ownership and responsibility for power procurement [27] - A comparison of various private sector participation models indicates that operations concessions provide a balanced risk allocation between public and private sectors [40][41] 3. Case Studies: Existing Operations Concessions - Côte d'Ivoire's concession model evolved from a public utility to a private operator, demonstrating the effectiveness of the operations concession in managing electricity distribution [59][60] - India’s input-based distribution franchises serve as another example of successful operations concessions, showcasing the model's flexibility [58] 4. Structuring Options and Parameters for Operations Concessions - Key parameters for structuring operations concessions include setting performance targets, treatment of assets, and regulatory oversight [4][38] - The remuneration model for concessionaires typically includes compensation for operations and maintenance costs, with performance incentives linked to operational improvements [38][72] 5. Limitations and Extensions - The report notes that while operations concessions can improve efficiency, they should be part of a broader reform strategy to address systemic issues in the electricity sector [52][53]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Bahia Core Insights - The agricultural sector in Bahia has shown significant growth and resilience, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to food security and economic stability [29][36][76] - The report emphasizes the need for policies that enhance competitiveness, sustainability, and inclusivity in the agrifood sector [29][86] Economic Performance of the Agricultural Sector - Brazil's GDP growth has slowed, with a recorded GDP of 7.6 trillion reais in 2020, reflecting a 3.0% annual growth rate, down from 12.6% in 2011 [33] - The agricultural sector's value added has been dynamic, with a 39.9% annual variation in 2020, contributing 5.7% to Brazil's total GDP [36][38] - Bahia's GDP growth decreased from 7.9% in 2011 to 4.1% in 2020, with the agricultural sector increasing its contribution to the state's economy from 6.9% to 9.2% during the same period [73][79] Evaluation of Support for Agriculture in Bahia (2017-2021) - The report utilizes OECD methodology to assess monetary transfers to agriculture, focusing on Producer Support Estimates (PSE), Consumer Support Estimates (CSE), Total Support Estimates (TSE), and General Service Support Estimates (GSSE) [86][90] - The PSE for Bahia is based on market price support and budget support, with a focus on key products like cocoa, cotton, and soybeans, which represent 47% of the state's agricultural production value [100][109] Summary and Recommendations - The report concludes with recommendations for repurposing public policies to foster a competitive, green, and resilient agricultural sector in Bahia, addressing the impacts of past policies and external factors [29][86]