Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report presents a framework to assess the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options, highlighting significant GDP losses in some countries by 2050, exceeding 10% in certain scenarios [3][12] - It emphasizes the importance of integrating biophysical models with macroeconomic models to better understand the impacts of climate change on economic growth and GDP [10][65] - The findings suggest that adaptation interventions can lead to significant net GDP gains, despite upfront costs, indicating potential investment opportunities in climate resilience [3][60] Summary by Sections Introduction - Climate change poses a major challenge to economic development, particularly for low- and middle-income economies, which are more vulnerable to extreme weather events [7][8] - The report discusses the need for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change impacts [8] Methodological Framework - The report outlines a multi-model approach that combines biophysical and macroeconomic modeling to evaluate climate impacts on economic performance [10][31] - It details the selection of climate and development scenarios to assess potential economic outcomes under varying conditions [36][41] Biophysical Impact Channels - The report identifies 15 different impact channels through which climate change affects the economy, including human capital, agriculture, natural resources, and infrastructure [49] - Each channel is modeled to estimate economic damages and assess the effectiveness of adaptation strategies [60] Evaluation of Adaptation Investments - The report discusses how adaptation investments can reduce the economic impacts of climate change, with greater adaptation leading to larger reductions in costs [60][62] - It highlights the importance of evaluating both upfront costs and long-term benefits of adaptation measures [62] Macroeconomic Modeling - The overall economic impacts of climate change are simulated using the World Bank's macro-fiscal model, which incorporates various economic variables and policy reactions [65] - The model is designed to support macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis, capturing the transmission channels through which climate shocks affect the economy [66]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the financial services industry Core Insights - The paper extends the Tinbergen rule to address the complex relationship between market competition and financial stability, highlighting the inadequacies of traditional policy frameworks in managing this nexus [2][7] - It introduces a dynamic optimization approach that calibrates policy instruments based on the financial system's position along the competition-stability curve, aiming to enhance the efficiency and robustness of financial systems [2][11] - The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive taxonomy of regulatory instruments, categorizing them based on their primary targets and secondary effects to facilitate state-dependent policy formulation [2][12] Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction discusses the foundational principle of the Tinbergen rule and its limitations in the context of increasingly complex financial regulation [6][7] - It highlights the interdependence of competition and stability objectives, which traditional frameworks fail to adequately address [7][8] Formal Framework - The formal framework captures the non-linear relationship between market competition and financial stability, incorporating hierarchical prioritization of policy objectives and structural constraints imposed by stability instruments [15][19] - It defines policy targets and their interdependence through a non-linear functional relationship, illustrating the inverted U-shaped curve that characterizes the competition-stability nexus [16][18] Instrument Classification - The report proposes a comprehensive classification of policy instruments based on their primary goals (stability or competition) and their effects on the other dimension [34] - It identifies three subcategories of stability instruments: competition-enhancing, competition-neutral, and competition-constraining [35][39] - Competition instruments are also categorized, with examples including minimum capital requirements and restrictive licensing [40][41] Policy Optimization - The optimization process involves diagnosing the current position of the financial system on the competition-stability curve and selecting appropriate policy mixes [47][48] - Tailored strategies are outlined for different zones of competition, including suboptimal, optimal, and excessive competition zones [55][67] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous adaptation and monitoring to maintain the balance between competition and stability [64][72]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The integration of large language models (LLMs) in evaluation practices can significantly enhance the efficiency and validity of text data analysis, although challenges in ensuring the completeness and relevance of information extraction remain [2][17][19]. Key Considerations for Experimentation - Identifying relevant use cases is crucial, as LLMs should be applied where they can add significant value compared to traditional methods [9][23]. - Detailed workflows for use cases help teams understand how to effectively apply LLMs, allowing for the reuse of successful components [10][28]. - Agreement on resource allocation and expected outcomes is essential for successful experimentation, including clarity on human resources, technology, and definitions of success [11][33]. - A robust sampling strategy is necessary to facilitate effective prompt development and model evaluation [12][67]. - Appropriate metrics must be selected to measure LLM performance, with standard machine learning metrics for discriminative tasks and human assessment criteria for generative tasks [13][36]. Experiments and Results - The report details four experiments focusing on text classification, summarization, synthesis, and information extraction, with results indicating satisfactory performance in various tasks [49][50]. - For text classification, the model achieved an accuracy of 90%, with recall at 75% and precision at 60% [53]. - In generative tasks, the model demonstrated high relevance (4.87), coherence (4.97), and faithfulness (0.90) in summarization, while information extraction showed excellent faithfulness but lower relevance (3.25) [58]. Emerging Good Practices - Iterative prompt development and validation are critical for achieving satisfactory results, emphasizing the importance of refining prompts based on model performance [60][64]. - Including representative examples in prompts enhances the model's ability to generate relevant responses [81]. - Evaluating model performance should include assessing the faithfulness of responses and setting context-specific thresholds for selected metrics [89][90].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The JUPITER initiative is a standardized assessment tool developed by the World Bank to evaluate the effectiveness of justice systems across countries, focusing on access, efficiency, and quality [14][17] - The methodology aims to identify strengths and weaknesses in judicial performance and facilitate evidence-based reforms in justice delivery [15][54] - JUPITER's assessments have been applied in fragile and conflict-affected settings, highlighting the importance of adapting to local contexts [52][54] Summary by Sections Key Findings - JUPITER serves as a critical tool for justice institutions to identify barriers and opportunities for reform, emphasizing empirical links to outcomes [15] - The initiative focuses on operational and analytical advantages to develop evidence-based interventions [15] Purpose - Effective justice institutions enhance accountability and trust in government, yet measuring their performance is complex due to data generation challenges [16] - The JUPITER initiative was launched to provide a framework for measuring judicial effectiveness, particularly in fragile states [17] Design - JUPITER assesses civil, commercial, and administrative justice, excluding criminal justice [19] - It benchmarks effectiveness in access, efficiency, and quality, with a comprehensive set of indicators [22] Access - Access to justice is a fundamental barrier, with 1.5 billion people unable to obtain justice for legal problems [27] - The JUPITER Assessment considers transparency, proximity to court, equal access, legal aid, and small claims courts [31] Efficiency - The efficiency of justice systems is often perceived as low, with slow court processes affecting contract enforcement and business growth [33] - JUPITER measures efficiency through clearance rates, case processing, and the use of information and communication technology [34][38] Quality - The quality of court proceedings is essential for fairness and legitimacy, influenced by judicial qualifications, pay, and consistency of decisions [39] - JUPITER captures quality through indicators related to judges' qualifications, extra-judicial activities, and appeal rates [40] Methodology - Data collection for JUPITER involves a combination of desk reviews, administrative data analysis, and stakeholder interviews [45] - The assessment includes input from various legal professionals and stakeholders to ensure comprehensive insights [46] Conclusion - JUPITER provides a robust framework for evaluating judicial effectiveness, relying on validated indicators to measure performance across access, efficiency, and quality [51] - The initiative aims to support justice reform through a rigorous, data-driven methodology adaptable to various country contexts [54]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Bangladesh could see 13.3 million internal climate migrants by 2050, representing 37% of all South Asian climate migrants [9][14] - The Government of Bangladesh and the World Bank are committed to managing climate migration, which requires actionable steps [9] - There are significant knowledge and data gaps regarding the gender-climate-migration nexus in Bangladesh [9][10] Summary by Sections I. Snapshot of Findings and Recommendations - The report highlights the urgent need for actions to manage climate migration and its gendered impacts [9] - It emphasizes the importance of addressing the emerging challenges posed by climate migration [10] II. Gender and Climate Migration in Bangladesh - Climate change is a significant driver of internal migration in Bangladesh, with projections indicating that climate migration will outpace other forms of migration by 2050 [14] - The report discusses the gender dynamics of climate migration, noting that women face unique challenges compared to their male counterparts [19] III. Exploring Evidence from Southwestern Bangladesh - Evidence shows that women left behind by migrating male family members face increased risks of gender-based violence and economic vulnerability [45][46] - The average monthly household income in southwestern Bangladesh is significantly lower than the national average, exacerbating economic vulnerabilities [57] - Female climate migrants are often engaged in lower-paying, informal jobs compared to male migrants, highlighting gender disparities in economic opportunities [66][74] IV. Government Efforts to Address Climate Migration - The Government of Bangladesh has prioritized managing climate migration and building climate-migrant-friendly cities [9] - The report outlines existing government plans and policies that focus on the gender-climate-migration nexus [34] V. The World Bank's Response to the Climate Crisis and Gender Equality - The World Bank is increasing investments to tackle the climate crisis and support the Government of Bangladesh in addressing climate migration [9][10] - The report emphasizes the need for further research and data collection to inform policies and strategies [30] VI. Conclusion and Recommendations - The report provides policy and operational recommendations to address the gendered impacts of climate migration, including expanding the knowledge base and enhancing women's leadership [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Statistical Needs Assessment (SNA) indicates that Belize has made significant progress in developing its statistical infrastructure, with an overall Statistical Performance Indicator (SPI) score of 65.1 in 2023, up from 47.7 in 2016, representing a 36.58% increase [12][14] - Key priorities for improvement include the development of the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS), integration of administrative data, and addressing resource constraints to enhance the capacity of the Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) [10][31] Summary by Sections National Context - Belize's NSS performance is benchmarked using the World Bank's SPI, which evaluates data use, services, products, sources, and infrastructure [11] - The SPI score of 65.1 indicates substantial progress, nearing the average of other countries in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region, but still below upper middle-income countries [12] Findings - The SNA reveals that SIB's strongest area is human resources, while data collection and openness are the weakest [21] - The overall score achieved by SIB in the SNA is 2.85 out of 4, indicating moderate performance [21] Data Producers - SIB produces 50% of relevant statistical data, with strengths in conducting censuses and surveys, but lacks comprehensive administrative data systems [22][24] Coordinators - SIB has the authority to coordinate the NSS but lacks a standardized mechanism for data collection across agencies [27] Promoters of Data Use - SIB publishes statistics on various sectors, including poverty and health, but lacks comprehensive analysis on business activities and national accounts [28] Capacity - SIB demonstrates high capacity in human resources and data dissemination, but needs to improve public access to information [29][30] Priorities - Key priorities include finalizing the NSDS, integrating administrative data, and ensuring personnel and infrastructural needs are met [31] Conclusion and Action Plan - SIB must build on existing structures to enhance its role as a data producer and coordinator [32] Priority Actions for Improvement - Develop and validate the NSDS, leverage technology for data generation, and onboard additional human resources to improve data collection coordination [33][34]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the public procurement industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes that effective public procurement practices can be achieved regardless of an economy's income level, highlighting the importance of regulatory design and digitalization in enhancing competition and efficiency in public procurement systems [1][47][49] Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The Regulatory Framework pillar has a mean score of 51 points, indicating a general struggle across economies to design targeted policies that attract new suppliers [22] - Greece and North Macedonia lead in scores, with several upper-middle and low-income economies also showing strong regulatory frameworks [22][34] - There is a notable gap in the implementation of gender-responsive procurement mechanisms, with only 10 economies scoring points in this area [18] Public Services - The Public Services pillar shows the largest score dispersion, with a min-max range of 90 points, primarily due to uneven adoption of digital procurement processes [35] - Approximately 70% of economies have implemented a centralized e-procurement portal, but the sophistication of these systems varies significantly [36] - Only 21% of economies have digitized contract signing, which is crucial for enhancing efficiency and transparency [36] Operational Efficiency - The Operational Efficiency pillar has the highest average score at 60.4 points, reflecting governments' focus on streamlining internal processes [38] - Georgia leads this pillar with a score of 96 points, while Lesotho has the lowest average payment time of 152 days [39][46] - There is a correlation between income levels and the gender gap in government suppliers, with wealthier economies showing better gender representation [39][41] Composite Procurement Category Scores - The average Composite Procurement Category score across 50 economies is 51.1 points, with a maximum score of 77.3 points, indicating shared challenges and opportunities in public procurement systems [18] - The report identifies that high-income and upper-middle-income economies generally have higher mean scores, but notable outliers exist across all income groups [19][20] Trends and Recommendations - The report suggests that disparities in public procurement can restrict economic opportunities and distort market functioning, necessitating careful design of regulations and investment in digital infrastructure [49][50] - Policymakers are encouraged to leverage the data provided to identify areas for improvement, such as enacting new legislation and implementing digitalized procurement systems [50]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The paper introduces a sector-specific framework for long-term growth modeling that addresses the limitations of traditional top-down estimates, focusing on total-factor productivity (TFP) growth and structural transformation from low to high productivity sectors [3][9][10] - The model enhances the World Bank's semi-structural models for Ghana and the Kyrgyz Republic, demonstrating its potential to improve long-run growth dynamics analysis through structural change [3][75] Summary by Sections Introduction - Semi-structural macroeconomic models are widely used for macroeconomic projections and policy simulations, but often lack detailed sectoral representations and long-run dynamics [7][8] - The paper aims to enrich the supply side of a standard macro-structural model by incorporating sector-specific productivity, capital, and employment into sectoral supply functions [9] Endogenizing Structural Change - The proposed framework modifies the production block of the model to include sector-level production functions, allowing labor and capital to move between sectors [11][12] - The model retains core features of standard models while being sensitive to sectoral price weights and relative wage differentials [12][13] Sectoral Production Functions - The model employs Cobb-Douglas production functions at the sector level to define potential output, with actual sectoral output converging towards potential levels [15][16] - Aggregate potential GDP is calculated as the sum of sectoral potential outputs, accounting for net indirect taxes [18] Dynamics of Labor and Capital - The allocation of labor and capital across sectors is determined by relative costs and productivity, with the model allowing for endogenous structural change [30][36] - The framework captures the impact of sectoral productivity shocks on aggregate productivity, emphasizing the role of labor and capital reallocation [47][48] Application to Ghana and Kyrgyz Republic - The report illustrates the application of the sectoral framework using data from Ghana and the Kyrgyz Republic, highlighting the importance of data availability for effective modeling [75][76] - The analysis compares the effects of sector-specific shocks, such as agricultural droughts, within the new framework against standard models [76][77]

Investment Rating - The report indicates that Guatemala's sovereign risk rating is the lowest in Central America, with a budgetary central government deficit averaging 1.3 percent of GDP from 2021 to 2024 and a public debt stock of 26.4 percent of GDP in 2024, rated one notch below investment grade by Moody's and two notches by S&P and Fitch [22][18][19]. Core Insights - Guatemala has a track record of prudent fiscal policy but faces large spending needs, particularly in infrastructure and social spending, which are essential for boosting growth and reducing poverty [17][22]. - The government needs to increase revenues efficiently and fairly to meet its spending needs, as current revenues are too low to close the infrastructure gap and accelerate poverty reduction [23][27]. - The report identifies opportunities for increasing tax revenues through reforms in personal income tax (PIT), corporate income tax (CIT), value-added tax (VAT), and excise taxes, focusing on altering rate structures and reforming tax expenditures [27][28]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Guatemala has developed a prudent fiscal policy but has significant spending needs, with a fiscal deficit averaging 1.5 percent of GDP from 2019 to 2023 [17][18]. Revenue - Tax revenue in Guatemala was 14.4 percent of GDP in 2022, one of the lowest in the region, with potential to increase by 2-3 percentage points of GDP [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the need for legislative reforms to increase tax revenues, which must be supported by a robust political consensus [30][31]. Public Financial Management - The government has utilized performance-based budgeting since 2013, but improvements are needed to enhance expenditure efficiency and align budgeting with social priorities [36][37]. Fiscal Risks - The report highlights the importance of strengthening the management of fiscal risks, including those arising from climate change, to enable greater infrastructure investment and support investment-grade status [43][39].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant global inequalities and vaccine hesitancy, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), necessitating innovative solutions to improve vaccine uptake [6][14] - The Alliance for Health Online (AHO) and the World Bank's eMBeD Unit developed a global research program utilizing social media and behavioral science to address vaccine hesitancy [7][21] - The program reached 230,000 respondents across 25 countries, supporting an estimated $700 million in World Bank vaccine operations [8][9] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The pandemic resulted in approximately 6.88 million reported deaths and 14.83 million excess deaths globally by March 2023, with vaccine hesitancy being a major driver of disparities in vaccination rates [6][14] - The AHO and World Bank's program aimed to diagnose barriers to vaccine uptake and develop effective communication strategies [7] Project Overview - The research program, launched in January 2021 with $2 million funding, aimed to understand and tackle vaccine hesitancy through behavioral science and social media [23] - Key activities included rapid diagnostics, message testing, and capacity building for social and behavioral change communications (SBCC) [24][25] Impacts - The project achieved significant impacts, with 91% of World Bank project leads finding the support effective and 82% indicating a likelihood to apply behavioral insights in future projects [9][67] - The use of social media for data collection proved to be fast and economical, with Facebook data showing comparable results to other survey modalities [10][83] Lessons Learned - Social media can facilitate rapid data collection and testing, with an average cost per completed response of $1.36 [83] - Chatbots enhance engagement and interaction, achieving a survey completion rate of 84% [85] Recommendations for Future Projects - Continuous investment in digital tools and training is essential for effective communication strategies [99] - Future projects should prioritize adaptive risk communication strategies and misinformation resistance components [101][102] Next Steps - The report suggests developing AI-powered guidance for SBCC interventions to personalize messaging and improve health outcomes [110]