Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - The study estimates the scale of labor market scarring effects in developing countries, particularly focusing on the stigma and human capital loss experienced by unemployed workers due to factory closures. The findings indicate a significant and lasting income reduction, with average hourly wages declining by 7.5% over a nine-year observation period, and a more pronounced decline of 10.8% in the first year following job loss. The analysis reveals that stigma accounts for 30.8% of the average income loss, while lost employer-specific human capital explains the remaining 69.2% [4][59][60]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction discusses the reallocation of labor and the potential for scarring effects in labor markets, particularly in developing countries where informal employment is prevalent. The paper aims to fill the gap in literature regarding labor market scarring effects in these economies [8]. Literature Review - The literature review highlights the scarcity of empirical evidence on labor market scarring effects in developing countries, contrasting with the extensive research available for developed economies. It references various studies that have examined the impact of unemployment on wages and employment probabilities in different contexts [15][18]. Data - The study utilizes data from the National Employment and Unemployment Survey (ENOE) in Mexico, covering a representative sample of approximately 1.67 million workers from 2005 to 2019. The analysis focuses on individuals aged 15 to 65 and examines the effects of job loss due to factory closures [20][22]. Econometric Methods - The econometric strategy involves estimating the average impact of unemployment on labor market outcomes, distinguishing between temporary and permanent effects. The study employs a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to control for unobserved individual characteristics [26][29]. Results - The results indicate that workers displaced by factory closures experience significant and persistent wage declines, with an average reduction of 7.5%. The analysis shows that the probability of formal employment decreases in the short term but recovers over time. The findings also reveal differences in the impact of factory closures based on education levels and gender [39][41][43]. Conclusion - The conclusion summarizes the contributions of the study, emphasizing the importance of understanding labor market scarring effects in developing countries and the relative contributions of stigma and human capital loss to income reductions. The report suggests avenues for future research to further explore these dynamics [58][60].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Maldives industry Core Insights - Economic growth in the Maldives remained robust in 2024, with real GDP growth estimated at 5.5 percent, driven primarily by a strong tourism sector [18][34] - Tourist arrivals reached an all-time high of 2.05 million in 2024, marking an increase of 8.9 percent year-on-year [18][35] - Headline inflation averaged 1.4 percent in 2024, with food inflation rising to 6.6 percent [19][42] - The fiscal deficit widened to MVR 12.7 billion (US$822.4 million) or 11.7 percent of GDP in 2024, driven by increased expenditure [20][52] - The current account deficit (CAD) remained elevated at 20.5 percent of GDP in 2024, with a trade deficit of US$3.3 billion [21][68] - Foreign exchange reserves fell to critically low levels, reaching US$371.2 million in September 2024, before recovering to US$832.1 million by February 2025 [22][69] - Public and publicly guaranteed debt rose to US$9.4 billion, or 134.2 percent of GDP, in 2024 [25][59] - The report emphasizes the need for urgent fiscal consolidation to address rising public debt and external vulnerabilities [30][29] Economic Update - Growth remained robust while inflationary pressures picked up in recent months [34] - Fiscal deficits continued to increase and remain elevated [49] - Public debt and external debt servicing increased in 2024 [59] - Potential austerity measures may impact household welfare if unmitigated [65] - External pressures have severely reduced FX reserves [68] Outlook and Risks - Growth is forecast to moderate, inflation to increase, and fiscal and external deficits to remain elevated [26][27] - Risks to the outlook are heavily tilted to the downside [29] - Implementing a sharp fiscal adjustment remains an urgent priority in the medium term [30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but highlights significant financing needs and constraints for municipalities in low- and middle-income countries (L&MICs) [13][41]. Core Insights - Municipalities in L&MICs face financing needs that exceed available investment flows, estimated at 2-4% of combined L&MIC GDP annually, with a financing deficit of approximately 1-3% of GDP [13][38]. - Current investment in urban infrastructure is primarily funded through public fiscal sources, necessitating greater use of private and repayable financing to meet investment needs [14][38]. - The report identifies key constraints to municipal financing, including demand-side issues (low revenues and poor financial management), regulatory barriers, and supply-side limitations [21][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: The Development Challenge - Municipalities in L&MICs require substantial investment to address urban infrastructure needs, with estimates suggesting a need of USD 0.9-1.9 trillion annually [37][42]. - The financing gap is significant, with current flows only a fraction of the required investment [38][39]. 2. Current Position: Municipal Debt and PPPs - Municipal borrowing in L&MICs is limited, with debt rarely exceeding 2% of GDP, and most borrowing concentrated in a few larger cities [16][17]. - Municipal PPPs represent only 2% of total PPP investment value from 2015-2023 in L&MICs, indicating low mobilization of private finance [16][17]. 3. Analysis of Key Constraints - Demand-side constraints include low municipal revenues and weak project execution capacity, limiting creditworthiness [22][23]. - Regulatory constraints restrict borrowing capabilities, with examples from Brazil and India highlighting the need for clearer frameworks [23][24]. - Supply-side limitations stem from underdeveloped local financial markets and reliance on government financial institutions [25]. 4. Addressing the Challenge - Recommendations include improving municipal borrowing frameworks, enhancing local financial management, and strengthening the funding base for municipalities [30][31]. - Development partners are encouraged to provide technical assistance and capacity-building support to enhance access to repayable financing [33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the health taxes landscape in India. Core Insights - The consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in India leads to significant public health challenges, with 1.6 million deaths and 49.3 million disability-adjusted life years lost annually. These products are major risk factors for noncommunicable diseases, responsible for 64.9 percent of all deaths in India as of 2019 [13] - Health taxes have been effective globally in reducing consumption and generating revenue while addressing market failures from negative externalities and internalities. India's current indirect tax system poses challenges due to its complexity and inconsistencies [13] - Reforming health taxes requires addressing inconsistencies, improving tax compliance, and introducing new tax structures based on the relative harm of each product [13] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report highlights the significant health and economic burdens associated with the consumption of demerit products in India, emphasizing the need for effective taxation to mitigate these issues [22][24] 2. Why Health Taxes Matter - Health taxes are justified due to market failures associated with demerit products, which lead to negative externalities and internalities. Taxing these products can enhance welfare by reducing consumption to socially efficient levels [28][29] - The revenue generated from health taxes can finance healthcare and development programs, making them a dual benefit for public health and government revenue [31] 3. The Consumption of Unhealthy Products in India - India is the second-largest consumer of tobacco globally, with approximately 267 million users. The prevalence of tobacco use is significantly higher among men compared to women [45][46] - Alcohol consumption among adults in India was estimated at 17.1 percent in 2019, with a notable gender disparity in usage [59][60] 4. Economic Burden Associated with the Consumption of Unhealthy Products - The economic burden from tobacco-related costs is estimated at US$36.2 billion annually, while alcohol-related costs amount to US$31.4 billion [13] 5. Health Taxes in India - The current indirect tax system in India includes a national-level Goods and Services Tax (GST) on tobacco and SSBs, as well as state-level excise duties and VAT on alcohol. The complexity and inconsistencies of this system pose challenges for effective taxation [13][27] - The report discusses the need for increasing specific excise taxes and simplifying the tax structure to better regulate unhealthy products [13] 6. Health Taxes in India: Challenges and Opportunities - The report identifies challenges in reforming health taxes, including knowledge gaps and the need for detailed state-level analysis of alcohol taxation [13][27]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Understanding the heterogeneity of poor households in Pakistan is crucial for identifying pathways out of poverty and informing policy actions [4][12] - The analysis categorizes the bottom 40th consumption percentile of households (B40) into five distinct groups using non-parametric hierarchical cluster analysis [4][16] - The findings indicate that poverty is not uniform, with different groups facing unique constraints and opportunities shaped by their economic environment and household-specific factors [12][16] Summary by Sections Introduction - Between 2001 and 2018, Pakistan experienced a 60% growth in household real consumption, leading to a decline in poverty from 64.3% to 21.9% [7] - Despite this decline, significant disparities in welfare persist across provinces, with rural areas experiencing higher poverty rates compared to urban areas [8][10] - Recent crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and climate-induced shocks, have reversed some poverty reduction gains, with poverty projected at 25.3% in 2023 [10] Data and Methodology - The analysis utilizes data from the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2018-19, covering 24,809 households across various provinces [20][22] - A hierarchical clustering method is employed to identify five clusters among the B40 households based on their characteristics [14][55] - The final clustering solution is determined to be optimal at five clusters, allowing for targeted policy interventions [48][55] Results - The cluster analysis identifies five groups among the B40 households: 1. **Group 1**: Ultra-poor rural households relying on unskilled sharecropping and public safety nets [16][57] 2. **Group 2**: Poor rural households engaged in agriculture as owner-cultivators [16][64] 3. **Group 3**: Households in transition with low labor force participation, often receiving remittances [16][64] 4. **Group 4**: Urban households with higher education and semi-skilled jobs in industry and services [16][64] 5. **Group 5**: Poor households engaged in unskilled daily wage labor across various sectors [16][64] - Each group exhibits distinct characteristics and constraints, necessitating differentiated policy responses to effectively address their unique challenges [57][64]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the childcare industry Core Insights - Quality childcare is essential for ensuring children's safety, promoting holistic development, and encouraging parental uptake of services [5][12] - The quality of childcare services significantly impacts parents' choices and economic activities, with higher quality leading to increased trust and usage [12] - A robust quality assurance system is necessary, including feasible standards, regular monitoring, and effective data use to support quality improvements [5][61] Summary by Sections I. Introduction: Importance of Quality Childcare - Quality childcare is crucial for child safety, development, and parental engagement in economic activities [7][12] II. Essential Elements of Quality in Childcare Settings - Quality can be achieved through key principles that are adaptable to various contexts, focusing on both structural and process quality [14][15] - Structural quality includes safe physical environments, adequate adult-to-child ratios, and trained practitioners [16][17] - Process quality emphasizes age-appropriate activities, responsive caregiving, and regular interactions with parents [20][30] III. Key Considerations When Visiting a Childcare Setting - Safety and structural suitability of the environment should be assessed [35] - Basic needs for food, water, hygiene, and sleep must be met [35] - Practitioners should demonstrate warmth and engage in age-appropriate communication [35] - Availability of materials for hands-on learning and play is essential [35] - Activities should facilitate interaction and movement among children [35] IV. Essential System Elements for Quality Improvement - Governments should implement quality assurance systems with realistic standards and clear registration processes [59][61] - Monitoring mechanisms should include site visits and community feedback [59][66] - Sufficient financing is necessary to support quality childcare and reduce financial burdens on families [63][66]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for infrastructure, particularly in developed markets, with a notable rebound in greenfield investments and a projected recovery in secondary market activities as interest rates decline [9][11]. Core Insights - Global private investment in infrastructure projects increased by 10 percent in 2023, primarily driven by developed markets, while low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) saw a slight decline [9][10]. - Infrastructure fundraising faced significant challenges in 2023, with total capital raised dropping to $94.9 billion, nearly half of 2022 levels, but is expected to stabilize in 2024 [18][19]. - Infrastructure debt remains attractive to investors due to its reliable cash flows and historically lower default rates compared to non-financial corporate debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 77 percent in 2023 [25][84]. - Renewable energy and transport sectors dominate infrastructure investment, accounting for two-thirds of total activity, with a significant surge in private investment in hydrogen projects [31][36]. - The report highlights a growing divergence in investment levels between high-income countries (HICs) and LMICs, with HICs experiencing a 15 percent increase in infrastructure investment in primary markets [45][46]. Summary by Sections Greenfield Investment - Greenfield investment in developed markets continues to rebound, while growth in emerging markets lags behind, with infrastructure delivery costs rising significantly [9][10]. Fundraising Challenges - Rising interest rates have tempered return expectations and led to a significant decline in infrastructure fundraising, with total capital raised dropping to $94.9 billion in 2023 [17][18]. Resilience Amid Uncertainty - Despite macroeconomic challenges, private infrastructure financing has maintained a stable debt-to-equity ratio, with infrastructure debt showing lower default rates and higher recovery rates [25][84]. Policy and Sector Priorities - Policy changes are influencing investor strategies, with renewable energy and transport leading investment, while digital infrastructure is gaining traction [31][32]. Investment Gaps - There is a widening investment gap between HICs and LMICs, with HICs representing a larger share of private investment in infrastructure [45][46]. Regulatory Frameworks - Strengthening regulatory frameworks is essential for attracting private capital in emerging markets, with improvements potentially increasing investment by approximately $500 million [54][56]. Role of Development Institutions - Development institutions play a critical role in mobilizing private capital in LMICs, providing co-financing for 30 percent of total private investment [61][62]. Blended Finance Solutions - Blended finance and guarantees are effective tools for bridging investment gaps, with evidence showing that projects backed by guarantees have higher private capital mobilization [65][67]. Local Currency Financing - Local currency financing for private investment in infrastructure projects in LMICs decreased to 37 percent in 2023, highlighting the need for strategies to protect against foreign exchange volatility [72][73]. Capital Market Opportunities - There is a growing shift towards leveraging domestic and international capital markets to mobilize long-term funding for infrastructure projects, particularly through green and sustainability-linked bonds [78][82]. Conclusion - The report concludes that while private investment in infrastructure has faced volatility, it remains resilient, with a focus on low-risk strategies and the importance of regulatory and policy interventions to close investment gaps [83][85].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The adjusted headcount ratio used in multidimensional poverty measures creates perverse incentives that prioritize targeting the least intensely poor individuals rather than the most intensely poor individuals [2][8][20] - A proposed quick-fix solution modifies the adjusted headcount ratio to eliminate these perverse incentives while maintaining the identification of the poor [8][26][34] - The new index, referred to as M'0, preserves the identification method but changes the poverty contribution of poor individuals to their multidimensional poverty gap, thus avoiding the discontinuous "jump" in poverty contributions [28][31][34] Summary by Sections Introduction - Prioritarianism suggests that social protection policies should prioritize the worst-off individuals, and the adjusted headcount ratio fails to do so [7][20] Basic Framework - The report introduces a framework for understanding multidimensional poverty measures, including the adjusted headcount ratio and its implications [15][16] Perverse Incentives - The adjusted headcount ratio and the headcount ratio both exhibit perverse incentives that can mislead policymakers [20][22] - The report illustrates how these incentives can lead to suboptimal policy decisions that do not align with prioritarian principles [21][24] Quick Fix: Tweaking M0 - The proposed solution involves changing the poverty contribution function to reflect the multidimensional poverty gap, thus eliminating perverse incentives [26][28][34] - The new index M'0 maintains the same properties as M0 except for Dimensional Breakdown, which is argued to be less critical for policymaking [35][51] Limitations of Dimensional Breakdown - The report discusses two significant limitations of Dimensional Breakdown, emphasizing that it may mislead policymakers regarding the sources of progress and optimal policy choices [35][50]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under study Core Insights - The study investigates how intrahousehold dynamics affect the investment decisions of female entrepreneurs in Ghana, revealing that unconditional grants have limited impact on business performance, while savings mechanisms show significant positive effects [2][10][16] Summary by Sections Introduction - Female entrepreneurship is on the rise globally, yet significant gender gaps in business performance persist, with cash grants showing limited effectiveness in enhancing performance [6][7] Methodology - A randomized controlled trial was conducted with 3,096 couples in Accra, Ghana, assessing four types of support mechanisms for women-owned businesses [10][18][22] Findings - Unconditional grants provided to female entrepreneurs or their spouses did not improve business performance, while conditional grants linked to training and savings goals led to increased sales and profits [11][15][52] - The savings intervention resulted in a 15% increase in sales and a 10% increase in profits, particularly for women facing high expropriation pressure [15][16][69] Mechanisms - The study highlights the role of expropriation pressures within households, where women often face demands to share their income, impacting their investment decisions [13][62] - The savings treatment was effective in mitigating these pressures, allowing women to maintain greater control over their resources [68][69] Conclusion - The findings underscore the importance of understanding intrahousehold dynamics and suggest that well-designed interventions can enhance the autonomy of female entrepreneurs, leading to better business outcomes [16][69]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Thailand's economic activity is showing mixed signals, with stable private consumption and strong exports countered by a sharp decline in private investment due to rising uncertainty [1][2] - Goods exports have shown robust growth, particularly to the US and China, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9 percent in February, marking the highest growth in four months [4][12] - The tourism sector is experiencing a decline in arrivals, particularly from China, which fell by 40 percent year-on-year, reaching only 35 percent of pre-pandemic levels [3] Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Private consumption expanded modestly, supported by fiscal stimulus, but high household debt and tighter credit standards are constraining spending [2] - The private investment index contracted sharply, reflecting declines in consumer confidence and ongoing weakness in manufacturing output [2] Exports - Goods exports maintained double-digit growth, driven by strong shipments to the US and China, partly due to frontloading amid global trade uncertainties [4][12] - Exports to Japan and ASEAN have started to contract, indicating potential challenges in these markets [12] Tourism - Tourist arrivals in February declined by 6.9 percent year-on-year, with arrivals from major sources surpassing pre-pandemic levels except for China [3] - The recent earthquake may further dampen tourist confidence and arrivals in the coming months [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has declined for three consecutive months, with headline inflation at 0.8 percent in March, below the Bank of Thailand's target range [14] - The Bank of Thailand has lowered the policy rate to 2.0 percent to alleviate household debt pressures amid tightening credit standards [14] Fiscal Position - The central government's fiscal deficit widened to 6.7 percent of GDP in the first five months of FY 2025, driven by increased spending [15] - Fiscal revenue reached its highest level since 2020, but spending growth outpaced revenue gains [15] Financial Markets - The Thai baht depreciated by 1.5 percent in early April, influenced by global market risk-off sentiment despite a strong current account surplus [16][24] - The current account surplus rose to USD 5.5 billion, the highest since the pandemic, driven by a stronger goods trade balance [24][25]