Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam provides a sample for subsequent trade negotiations between other countries, leaving uncertainties for future China-US negotiations. China may face difficulties in countering the increased costs of re-export trade tariffs. Attention should be paid to trade agreement news before July 9. The non-farm payroll data released today is also a key focus [6][9][12]. - Due to the influence of news, the "anti-involution" seems to bring a new round of supply-side reform in cyclical industries, with traditional sectors rising. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors is questionable, and it is more likely to be a structural market. The index will fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. Given the intertwining of overseas tariffs, Fed rate cuts, and domestic policies, the subsequent market is likely to continue with a structural trend. A dumbbell strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares [2][4][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US ADP employment change in June was -33,000, significantly lower than the expected 95,000 and the previous value of 29,000. This was the first employment contraction since March 2023, indicating weakness in the US labor market. As the employment data weakened, the market increased its bets on a Fed rate cut in July, with the probability rising from 20% to 27.4% [6]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam will implement a 0% tariff on US imports, while Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face a 20% tariff, and goods deemed to be "transshipped through Vietnam" will be subject to a 40% tariff, targeting China. The previous agreement framework with China may face uncertainties. In the overnight market, although the US employment data was weak, the trade news had a greater impact. The US dollar index rose, US Treasury yields declined at both short and long ends, gold prices increased, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly fell, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slightly increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate remained basically flat. Attention should be paid to the US non-farm payroll data today, as the weak ADP data does not necessarily mean the non-farm payroll data will be weak [6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and slightly declined by 0.09%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.13%. The market showed a differentiated adjustment trend. Although the broader market was supported by banks and did not decline, individual stocks tumbled. Similar to the previous rise of Guotai Junan International in Hong Kong stocks, Chongqing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. in Hong Kong stocks soared by 91.11%, mainly affected by a 30% limit on sintering machines in Tangshan, which also drove up the A-share steel sector and other cyclical sectors. Cyclical industries seem to be starting a new round of supply-side reform, consistent with the "anti-involution" tone. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors may be problematic. Among sectors, steel, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and banking rose, while electronics, communications, military, computer, and beauty care sectors led the decline. There were 1,943 rising stocks and 3,282 falling stocks in the entire market [2][7]. - The People's Bank of China issued the "Administrative Measures for Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Financing of Precious Metals and Gemstone Industry Institutions," requiring industry institutions to submit large transaction reports within 5 working days for transactions with a single or daily cumulative amount of over RMB 100,000 [7]. 1.3 Important News - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, where the Vietnamese market will fully open to the US. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff on any goods entering US territory, and a 40% tariff will be imposed on transshipped goods. Vietnamese state media reported that the US will significantly reduce tariffs on various Vietnamese products [9]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that there is currently no urgency to change policies [10]. - Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing conducted research in Hubei, emphasizing technology empowerment, accelerating industrial innovation, and continuously promoting high-quality development of the manufacturing industry [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over RMB 300 billion to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025. So far, the RMB 800 billion list of "two major" construction projects for this year has been fully issued [10]. - European Commission President von der Leyen met with Wang Yi. Wang Yi said that the upcoming China-EU leaders' meeting is an important meeting at a critical juncture [10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that it will prevent and control risks in areas such as bond defaults and private funds in an orderly manner, and continuously optimize capital market mechanisms such as stock and bond financing and mergers and acquisitions to promote the efficient concentration of factors in the most promising areas [10]. - In the first half of this year, 12.6 million new A-share accounts were opened, a year-on-year increase of 32.77% [11]. - The China Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in June were 1.26 million, a year-on-year increase of 29% [11]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam provides a sample for subsequent trade negotiations between other countries, leaving uncertainties for future China-US negotiations. China may face difficulties in countering the increased costs of re-export trade tariffs. Attention should be paid to trade agreement news before July 9. The non-farm payroll data released today is also a key focus. In the A-share market, due to the influence of news, the "anti-involution" seems to bring a new round of supply-side reform in cyclical industries, with traditional sectors rising. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors is questionable, and it is more likely to be a structural market. The index will fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. Given the intertwining of overseas tariffs, Fed rate cuts, and domestic policies, the subsequent market is likely to continue with a structural trend. A dumbbell strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares [12]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as their corresponding futures contracts such as IH2507, IF2507, IC2507, and IM2507 [14][15]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents data on the performance of the spot market, including the trading volume, current points, daily, weekly, and monthly returns of major indices such as the Wind All A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as the performance of various sectors [39]. - It also analyzes the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the performance of major indices [40][41]. - Additionally, the report shows the valuation levels of important indices and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock-bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and net margin trading purchases [43][47][49]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report provides data on central bank open market operations and Shibor interest rate levels to track market liquidity [54][55][56].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong steel sector stocks have experienced a decline, with Chongqing Steel (01053.HK) dropping by 19% and Ansteel (00347.HK) falling by 3% [1]

Investment and Financial Policies - Zhipu announced a strategic investment of 1 billion yuan from Pudong Venture Capital Group and Zhangjiang Group, with the first transaction completed recently [1] - The Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center is soliciting public opinions on the implementation of the "Commercial Housing Loan to Housing Provident Fund Loan" policy from July 2 to July 11, aiming to reduce the interest burden on contributors [6][9] Market Developments - The first batch of 10 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs was approved on July 2 [2][15] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 98.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% on July 2, with a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan [4] Industry Performance - From January to May, the added value of China's electronic information manufacturing industry grew by 11.1% year-on-year, with a revenue of 6.49 trillion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [7] - Zhejiang Province announced the establishment of a financial service mechanism for urban renewal, with 49 key projects expected to have a total investment of over 110 billion yuan [7] Corporate Actions - Taobao announced a consumer and merchant subsidy of 50 billion yuan over the next 12 months [19] - Longhua District in Shenzhen released a three-year action plan to promote the cultivation of listed companies, enhancing cooperation with financial research institutions [8] Regulatory Updates - The National Internet Information Office launched a special action to rectify illegal online activities related to enterprises, focusing on managing and addressing false information [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission reported that 24 out of the first 26 new floating rate funds have completed fundraising, totaling 22.68 billion yuan [17]

Industry Overview - The steel sector experienced a sudden surge on July 2, with Chongqing Steel (601005) seeing a dramatic increase of over 130% during trading, closing up 91.11% [1] - Other steel stocks also rose significantly, including China Iron Titanium (20.97%), Ansteel (12.73%), China Oriental Group (11.45%), and Maanshan Steel (3.59%) [1] - The central government's emphasis on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Supply-Side Reforms - Market interpretations suggest that expectations for supply-side reforms in the steel industry have strengthened [2] - Reports indicate that approximately half of the steel mills in Tangshan have received notifications regarding production cuts, which could reduce daily sinter production by 30,000 tons [2] - The steel industry faces challenges from a sluggish real estate market, limited infrastructure investment, and increased export pressure [2] Financial Performance - The steel industry showed signs of recovery in profitability during the first half of 2025, with total revenue for black metal smelting and rolling processing reaching 31,364.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% [2] - The total profit for the industry turned positive, amounting to 316.9 billion yuan, indicating a recovery from previous losses [2] Cost and Profitability - Major raw material prices have declined, leading to a noticeable reduction in steel mills' costs, which has supported profit recovery [3] - Future supply adjustments could further suppress raw material prices and improve the supply-demand relationship, potentially enhancing steel profits [3] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the steel industry is likely to see a structural improvement, with some companies currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities [3] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [3] Company-Specific Developments - Ansteel (00347) has developed a new composite pipe technology for deep-sea oil and gas transport, enhancing its competitive position [4] - Maanshan Steel (00323) reported a revenue of approximately 19.425 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, but managed to narrow its net loss significantly [4] - Chongqing Steel (01053) reported a revenue of 6.614 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a net loss reduction of 64.82% compared to the previous year [5] - China Oriental Group (00581) reported sales of approximately 1.8 million tons of steel products in Q1 2025, with a gross profit margin of 100-150 yuan per ton [5]

Market Overview - On July 2, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62%, closing at 24,221.41 points, with a net inflow of HKD 5.036 billion through the southbound trading channel [1] - The total trading volume for the southbound trading was HKD 128.967 billion, with a net buy of HKD 5.036 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading had a total transaction amount of HKD 81.984 billion, with a net buy of HKD 1.279 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's southbound trading had a total transaction amount of HKD 46.983 billion, with a net buy of HKD 3.757 billion [1] Active Stocks - In the Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading, Alibaba-W had the highest transaction amount at HKD 3.170 billion, followed by Chongqing Iron & Steel and Xiaomi Group-W with transaction amounts of HKD 2.929 billion and HKD 2.827 billion, respectively [1] - In terms of net buy amounts, the Yingfu Fund led with a net buy of HKD 1.674 billion, while Alibaba-W had the highest net sell amount at HKD 788 million, closing down by 0.36% [1] Shenzhen Stock Exchange Active Stocks - In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's southbound trading, Alibaba-W also topped the transaction amount at HKD 2.407 billion, followed by Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group-W with transaction amounts of HKD 1.589 billion and HKD 1.582 billion, respectively [2] - The stock with the highest net buy was Innovent Biologics, with a net buy of HKD 651 million, closing up by 1.15%, while Alibaba-W had the highest net sell amount at HKD 945 million, also closing down by 0.36% [2]

Market Overview - On July 2, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62%, with southbound funds totaling HKD 128.97 billion in trading volume, including HKD 67.00 billion in buying and HKD 61.97 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 5.04 billion [1] Southbound Trading Activity - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shenzhen) had a total trading volume of HKD 46.98 billion, with HKD 25.37 billion in buying and HKD 21.61 billion in selling, leading to a net buying amount of HKD 3.76 billion [1] - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shanghai) had a total trading volume of HKD 81.98 billion, with HKD 41.63 billion in buying and HKD 40.35 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 1.29 billion [1] Active Stocks - Alibaba-W had the highest trading volume among southbound funds, totaling HKD 55.77 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W at HKD 44.08 billion and Chongqing Steel at HKD 37.21 billion [1] - The net buying stocks included 8 companies, with the largest net buying amount for Yingfu Fund at HKD 16.74 billion, followed by Innovent Biologics at HKD 6.51 billion and Meituan-W at HKD 3.38 billion [1] Continuous Net Buying and Selling - Two stocks, namely SMIC and Innovent Biologics, experienced continuous net buying for over three days, with SMIC leading at a total net buying of HKD 59.43 billion and Innovent Biologics at HKD 17.83 billion [2] - The stocks with the highest net selling included Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, and Alibaba-W, with total net selling amounts of HKD 22.53 billion, HKD 3.74 billion, and HKD 3.08 billion respectively [2] Summary of Active Stocks on July 2 - The following table summarizes the active stocks with their trading amounts, net buying amounts, and daily price changes: - Yingfu Fund: Trading Amount HKD 1689.30 million, Net Buying HKD 1674.46 million, Daily Change 0.49% - Innovent Biologics: Trading Amount HKD 1079.97 million, Net Buying HKD 651.12 million, Daily Change 1.15% - Meituan-W: Trading Amount HKD 2976.06 million, Net Buying HKD 338.09 million, Daily Change 0.56% - SMIC: Trading Amount HKD 3274.27 million, Net Buying HKD 317.79 million, Daily Change -2.57% - Chongqing Steel: Trading Amount HKD 3720.82 million, Net Buying HKD 144.80 million, Daily Change 91.11% - Xiaomi Group-W: Trading Amount HKD 4408.50 million, Net Selling HKD 36.95 million, Daily Change 0.33% - Tencent Holdings: Trading Amount HKD 3438.30 million, Net Selling HKD 62.96 million, Daily Change -0.30% - Alibaba-W: Trading Amount HKD 5576.67 million, Net Selling HKD 173.65 million, Daily Change -0.36% [2]

Group 1 - On July 2, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Chongqing Steel (01053), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 3.17 billion, 2.93 billion, and 2.83 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 2.41 billion, 1.59 billion, and 1.58 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - In the Southbound Stock Connect, the top ten active trading companies included Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 3.17 billion and a net buy of -788 million, Chongqing Steel (01053) with 2.93 billion and a net buy of 116 million, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 2.83 billion and a net buy of -222 million [2] - The Southbound Stock Connect for Shenzhen-Hong Kong also featured Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 2.41 billion and a net buy of -945 million, Tencent Holdings (00700) with 1.59 billion and a net buy of -259 million, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 1.58 billion and a net buy of -147 million [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 2, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 50.36 billion HKD from northbound trading, with 12.79 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 37.57 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] - The most bought stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Innovent Biologics (01801), and Meituan-W (03690) [1] - The most sold stocks were Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent (00700), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Alibaba-W had a buy amount of 11.91 billion HKD and a sell amount of 19.79 billion HKD, resulting in a net outflow of 7.88 billion HKD [2] - Xiaomi Group-W had a buy amount of 13.02 billion HKD and a sell amount of 15.25 billion HKD, leading to a net outflow of 2.22 billion HKD [2] - Tencent had a buy amount of 7.39 billion HKD and a sell amount of 11.10 billion HKD, resulting in a net outflow of 3.71 billion HKD [2] Group 3: Sector Insights - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) received a net inflow of 16.74 billion HKD, with analysts suggesting that the current market conditions provide a favorable window for investment, particularly in the technology sector [5] - Innovent Biologics (01801) and 3SBio (01530) received net inflows of 6.51 billion HKD and 1.09 billion HKD, respectively, following new measures to support the development of innovative drugs [5] - Meituan-W (03690) saw a net inflow of 3.38 billion HKD, while Alibaba-W and Tencent experienced significant net outflows [6] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - Chongqing Steel (01053) received a net inflow of 1.44 billion HKD amid rumors of production cuts in Tangshan, which could impact capacity utilization [6] - Pop Mart (09992) received a net inflow of 1.22 billion HKD after being recognized in Time magazine's list of the "100 Most Influential Companies" for 2025 [7] - Xiaomi's Yu7 model orders exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of shipment forecasts for 2025 to 2027 [8]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a sudden surge on July 2, with notable stocks like Chongqing Steel and Liugang Co. hitting the daily limit, and the steel ETF rising by 3.69% [1][2] - Hong Kong steel stocks showed even stronger gains, with Chongqing Steel's stock price increasing by over 90%, and Angang Steel rising by more than 57% at one point [1] - The rise in steel stocks is attributed to expectations of supply-side reforms in the steel industry, following a recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee that emphasized the need for orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The steel industry is showing signs of recovery in profitability in the first half of 2025, with total revenue for the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry reaching 31,364.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% [3] - The industry's total profit turned positive with a total profit of 316.9 billion yuan, indicating a shift from loss to profit [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant market movements in the steel and photovoltaic sectors, driven by news of production cuts and environmental regulations in Tangshan, as well as collective production reductions in the photovoltaic glass industry [1][7][13]. Steel Sector - The steel sector experienced a substantial surge, with stocks like Shengde Xintai rising by 17% and several others reaching their daily limit [4][5]. - The market is reacting to reports of increased environmental production cuts in Tangshan, with approximately half of the steel mills indicating they received notifications regarding these measures [7]. - If the production cut policies are strictly enforced, the capacity utilization rate could drop from 83% to 70%, leading to a daily reduction of 30,000 tons in sintering ore production [7]. - The China Iron and Steel Association is set to hold a meeting to discuss the industry's progress and challenges, indicating a focus on future strategies [7]. Marine Economy - The marine economy sector saw strong performance, with stocks like Kelaite and Deepwater Haina hitting their daily limits [9][10]. - A recent meeting emphasized the importance of high-quality development in the marine economy, focusing on innovation, policy support, and the involvement of social capital [11]. - The deep-sea technology industry is identified as a key area for growth, with increasing demand for deep-sea materials and equipment [12]. Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic industry saw a notable rise, with stocks like Xiuchang and Daye Intelligent reaching their daily limits [14][15]. - Reports indicate that leading photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30%, which is expected to support sustainable industry development [16]. - The industry is currently facing pressure with prices falling below cash cost lines, prompting a need for supply-side reforms [16].