[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|房地产Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发地产&海外】华润万象生活 （01209.HK） | 盈利预测：（除非特别注明，否则报告货币为人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_ 单位:Finance] 人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 主营收入 | 14,767 | 17,043 | 18,026 | 19,218 | 20,434 | | 增长率（ % ） | 22.9% | 15.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | | EBITDA | 4,304 | 5,367 | 5,754 | 6,349 | 6,985 | | 归母净利润 | 2,929 | 3,629 | 3,928 | 4,361 | 4,824 | | 增长率（ % ） | 32.8% | 23.9% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | | EPS（元/股） | 1.28 | 1.59 | 1.72 | 1. ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Financial Industry - The financial industry is expected to gradually return to a positive cycle by 2026, with economic sustainability improving despite not entering a significant upturn [2] - The central bank has implemented flexible interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with a total of 7 trillion yuan in special re-loans to support small and micro technology enterprises [2][3] - December social financing data shows stable loan issuance, with a slight rebound in medium- and long-term loan growth, supporting infrastructure and helping to exit deflation [2] Automotive Industry - The automotive market in early 2026 is experiencing a downturn, with retail and wholesale sales significantly declining due to overdrawn demand for new energy vehicles and consumer hesitance regarding promotional subsidies [7][9] - A forecasted decline of 5-7% in passenger vehicle sales for Q1 2026, with an expected overall wholesale decline of 3% for the year [9] - The cost pressure in the automotive sector is increasing due to rising raw material prices, with an estimated increase in single vehicle costs by 6,000 to 8,000 yuan, impacting gross margins by 4-5 percentage points [11] Wind Power Industry - The wind power sector is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with annual new installations projected between 100-120 GW [15] Property Management Industry - The property management sector is anticipated to maintain low growth, with increasing differentiation among companies [16] - Major players like China Resources Mixc Life, Greentown Service, and Country Garden Service are expected to show strong performance due to stable cash flow and favorable dividend policies [17] Company-Specific Insights SF Express and Jitu - SF Express and Jitu have entered into a cross-shareholding agreement, with SF acquiring 10% of Jitu and Jitu acquiring 4.3% of SF, which is expected to have limited short-term EPS impact but potential long-term benefits due to resource synergy [4] - The collaboration is expected to enhance market presence in both domestic and overseas markets, particularly in cross-border logistics [5] China Resources Mixc Life - Recent stock price fluctuations for China Resources Mixc Life are attributed to slightly lower-than-expected earnings forecasts, but long-term growth potential remains intact with a projected EPS growth rate of 5-6% [18] Greentown Service and Country Garden Service - Greentown Service is expected to maintain a stable cash return due to its high-quality project structure, while Country Garden Service is anticipated to exceed shareholder return expectations with strong cash flow [17] Additional Considerations - The financial sector is benefiting from a shift in household financial asset allocation, with an annual growth rate of approximately 12% expected [3] - The automotive industry faces challenges from rising costs and cautious promotional strategies, with a need for adaptation to new policies impacting sales [8][12] - The property management sector is seeing a healthier profit structure as major companies release impairment pressures and rationalize non-core business operations [16]

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -3.3% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices changed by -0.6% and +0.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.7% and -3.8%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 26th in performance[46] New Housing Market - New home sales increased by 0.6% week-on-week but decreased by 36.8% year-on-year during the period from January 10 to January 16, 2026[8] - In major cities, new home transaction areas changed as follows: Beijing +16.3%, Shanghai +1.9%, Guangzhou +18.8%, and Shenzhen -0.6%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 162.3 million square meters, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year[14] - Cumulative transactions from January 1 to January 16, 2026, totaled 331.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%[14] Inventory and Absorption - Cumulative new home inventory in 13 cities reached 77.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week change of -0.1% and a year-on-year change of -4.7%[21] - The absorption cycle for new homes in 13 cities is 23.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6 months[21] Land Market - Land transaction area from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 11.746 million square meters, down 21.9% week-on-week and down 49.7% year-on-year[38] - The average land price was 700 RMB/square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 44.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.1%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include: A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include: Property management: Greentown Service; Commercial management: China Resources Mixc Life; Leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of real estate regulatory policy relaxation, continued industry downturn, and persistent credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[7]

支持居民改善需求，销售环比回升 ——20260116 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 6.53 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 6.5 | 15.5 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 招 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant changes in the investment strategies of Ruiyuan Fund's star fund managers, with notable adjustments in stock holdings and performance metrics for the fourth quarter of 2025. Group 1: Fund Performance and Adjustments - Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund experienced a net redemption of 136.2 million shares, marking the second-highest redemption in its history, with total net assets decreasing from 23.629 billion yuan to 21.087 billion yuan [3][4] - The fund's stock allocation increased slightly from 89.93% to 90.48%, while the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in the fund's net value decreased from 27.92% to 20.14% [3][4] - Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Holding Fund's stock allocation reached a three-year high of 90.66%, with a slight increase in the proportion of Hong Kong stocks to 41.99% [10] Group 2: Stock Holdings and Changes - The top ten holdings of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund included New Yisheng, Shenghong Technology, and Ningde Times, with New Yisheng seeing a 22.73% reduction in holdings [4][5] - Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Holding Fund saw significant changes, with the re-entry of Midea Group into the top ten holdings and reductions in holdings of companies like Lixun Precision and China Ping An [10][12] - The fund managers noted a shift in focus towards sectors like photovoltaic and semiconductor high-end equipment manufacturing, while reducing exposure to companies with weak fundamentals [6][10] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy - The fund managers expressed optimism about the market, anticipating that the return on equity assets will remain attractive compared to other asset classes, with potential returns exceeding 10% for leading companies [11][13] - They plan to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages, particularly those expanding overseas, as this is expected to drive future growth [13][14] - The report indicates a structural market environment with limited risks of significant downturns, while opportunities for excess returns remain [8][13]

选股方面，该行建议具稳健资产基础的高质素企业，当中华润万象生活(01209)受商场消费带动，料有 中十位数增长，股息率达4%至5%，目标价由46.38港元微升至48.93港元，予"增持"评级。而绿城服务 (02869)盈利能见度高，且利润率扩张，同获"增持"评级，目标价由5.78港元微降至5.54港元。 另外，该行认为碧桂园服务(06098)可作为战术性选择，评级"与大市同步"，目标价由6.07港元升至7.04 港元，支持因素包括稳健现金流、股东回报改善，以及持续股份回购下约8%收益率。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，虽然内地物管企业的关联方盈利拖累已大致消退，但公司持续面对收款转弱及 空置费上升的挑战，同时宏观环境疲软及服务质素未如理想，亦带来收费压力。该行预期2025至27年行 业盈利将分别同比增长3%、5%及7%，收入增长约5%，但利润率因收款转弱而承压。行业中，该行料 物业管理服务将成为主要增长动力，相反增值服务将持续低迷。 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，虽然内地物管企业的关联方盈利拖累已大致消退，但公司持续面对收款转弱及 空置费上升的挑战，同时宏观环境疲软及服务质素未如理想，亦带来收费压力。该行预期2025至27年行 业盈利将分别同比增长3%、5%及7%，收入增长约5%，但利润率因收款转弱而承压。行业中，该行料 物业管理服务将成为主要增长动力，相反增值服务将持续低迷。 选股方面，该行建议具稳健资产基础的高质素企业，当中华润万象生活(01209)受商场消费带动，料有 中十位数增长，股息率达4%至5%，目标价由46.38港元微升至48.93港元，予"增持"评级。而绿城服务 (02869)盈利能见度高，且利润率扩张，同获"增持"评级，目标价由5.78港元微降至5.54港元。 另外，该行认为碧桂园服务(06098)可作为战术性选择，评级"与大市同步"，目标价由6.07港元升至7.04 港元，支持因素包括稳健现金流、股东回报改善，以及持续股份回购下约8%收益率。 ...

Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley reports that the profitability drag from related parties for mainland property management companies has largely dissipated, but challenges remain with weakened collections and rising vacancy fees [1] - The macroeconomic environment is weak, and service quality is not ideal, leading to pricing pressure [1] - The firm expects industry profits to grow by 3%, 5%, and 7% year-on-year from 2025 to 2027, with revenue growth around 5%, but profit margins are under pressure due to weakened collections [1] Company Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests that property management services will be the main growth driver in the industry, while value-added services will continue to be sluggish [1] - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) is expected to achieve mid-teens growth driven by mall consumption, with a dividend yield of 4% to 5%. The target price is slightly raised from HKD 46.38 to HKD 48.93, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - Greentown Service (02869) has high earnings visibility and expanding profit margins, also receiving an "Overweight" rating, with the target price slightly decreased from HKD 5.78 to HKD 5.54 [1] - Country Garden Services (06098) is viewed as a tactical choice, rated "In Line with Market," with the target price increased from HKD 6.07 to HKD 7.04, supported by stable cash flow, improved shareholder returns, and ongoing share buybacks yielding about 8% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the property management industry in mainland China is expected to see profit growth of 3%, 5%, and 7% from 2025 to 2027, with revenue growth around 5%, although profit margins will be pressured due to weaker collections [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that property management services will be the main growth driver in the industry, while value-added services will continue to remain sluggish [1] Group 2 - The report recommends selecting high-quality companies with robust asset bases, highlighting China Resources Mixc Lifestyle as expected to achieve double-digit growth driven by mall consumption, with a dividend yield of 4% to 5% and a target price increase from HKD 46.38 to HKD 48.93, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - Greentown Service is noted for its high earnings visibility and expanding profit margins, also receiving an "Overweight" rating, with a target price slightly decreased from HKD 5.78 to HKD 5.54 [1] - Country Garden Services is suggested as a tactical choice, rated "In Line with Market," with a target price increase from HKD 6.07 to HKD 7.04, supported by stable cash flow, improved shareholder returns, and ongoing share buybacks resulting in an approximately 8% yield [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing significant pressure on both investment and sales, with a notable decline in investment and sales figures for 2025 [2][3]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in investment, with adjustments made to the 2026 forecasts for new starts, completions, and overall investment [2][3]. - The sales sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for policy support to drive demand recovery, although supply constraints may limit this recovery [2][3]. Investment Side Summary - For the year 2025, total real estate development investment reached 828.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with December alone showing a drop of 35.8% [3][20]. - New starts decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, while completions fell by 18.1% [3][20]. - The report adjusts the 2026 forecast for new starts to -7.7% (originally -4.6%) and overall investment to -9.1% (originally -7.5%) [2][20]. Sales Side Summary - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December sales area declining by 15.6% [21][31]. - The average sales price for properties decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with December's average price showing a 9.5% decline [30][31]. - The report revises the 2026 sales forecast to a decrease of 7.6% for sales area and 9.4% for sales revenue [35][31]. Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 930 billion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 26.7% decline [36][37]. - Domestic loans saw a significant drop of 45% in December, while self-raised funds decreased by 15.7% [36][37]. - The report suggests that funding sources are expected to gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [39].