Core Viewpoint - UBS reports signs of recovery in luxury goods and jewelry sales in mainland China and Hong Kong, driven by wealth effects from the stock market and rising gold prices [1] Mainland Retail Sector - The proportion of emerging brands in CR Land's shopping malls is high, including brands like Lao Pu Gold and Pop Mart, allowing the group to adapt quickly to changing consumer habits, giving it a competitive edge over Hong Kong developers [1] - UBS is optimistic about CR Land, CR Vientiane Life, Swire Properties, and Hang Lung Properties, upgrading CR Vientiane Life's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" [1] - Lao Pu Gold's rating is also upgraded to "Buy" due to valuation pressure and potential product price increases in the last quarter, which may support short-term sales and gross margins [1] Hong Kong Retail Sector - The luxury retail sector in Hong Kong is benefiting from strong stock market performance, which may positively impact Wharf Real Estate [1] - UBS believes that Wharf Real Estate may benefit from the short-term recovery in luxury retail, while Link REIT could be affected by the increasing penetration of e-commerce, receiving "Neutral" and "Buy" ratings respectively [1]

瑞银发表报告，将华润万象生活评级上调至"买入"，因公司发掘新兴品牌的能力较同行领先，尤其是在 内地品牌崛起及各品牌表现分化下。另外，内地奢侈品零售出现复苏迹象，加上2026至27年商场供应减 少，将有利于现有商场的租金增长。 该行预计，上述因素将提高公司2025至27年的盈利能见度，预期年均复合增长率达15%；基于公司派息 率达100%(包括特别息)，目标价由38港元上调至48港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The industry is transitioning into a stock era, with a focus on the renovation and enhancement of existing commercial properties, particularly in lower-tier markets where supply-demand dynamics are more favorable [6][60]. - The report highlights the successful case studies of CapitaLand and China Overseas Commercial REITs, which exemplify the full-cycle capital loop of acquisition, renovation, enhancement, and exit [3][14]. - The renovation of mature and acquired projects can significantly enhance their value, as demonstrated by the operational upgrades and tenant adjustments made by China Overseas since acquiring Nanhai Yifeng City [17][24]. - The report emphasizes the stability of rental income growth in lower-tier cities compared to first and second-tier cities, where competition is intensifying [3][60]. Summary by Sections Industry Transition - The new construction and completion of commercial properties have peaked, with the number of new shopping centers opening in 2024 expected to be the lowest in nearly a decade, indicating a shift from quantity growth to quality improvement [13][10]. - The proportion of reopened projects after renovation is increasing, with 21.79% of new openings in 2024 being renovated stock [13][9]. Case Studies - China Overseas Commercial REIT has shown a 22.82% compound annual growth rate in sales from 2020 to 2024, reflecting effective tenant adjustments and operational upgrades [17][24]. - CapitaLand's project in Changsha has maintained high operational efficiency, with a rental income growth of 13% post-renovation [40][44]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that lower-tier markets have a more favorable supply-demand balance, with less competition and stronger customer loyalty, leading to more stable operational expectations [3][60]. - The valuation of shopping centers in lower-tier cities is comparable to some second-tier cities, with examples like the Foshan project showing competitive pricing [69][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality shopping center operators and related consumer infrastructure REITs, as they are expected to maintain high occupancy rates and stable sales [3][6]. - It highlights the potential for investment in companies like China Resources Land and New Town Holdings, which are well-positioned in the evolving market landscape [3][6].

每经AI快讯，华润万象生活(01209.HK)现涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.42%，报41.72港元，成交额1.64亿港 元。 ...

华润万象生活(01209)现涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.42%，报41.72港元，成交额1.64亿港元。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，华润万象生活在商场营运方面持续胜预期，旗下商场在黄金周期间，录得按年 低十位数同店销售增长，推动整体商场零售额按年增长超过25%。虽然部分原因在于国庆与中秋节假期 相连，但集团增长高于同行，主要因万象城市占率优势持续扩大；年初至今其同店销售录低十位数增 长，加上今年首9个月整体零售额增长20%至25%，均可印证该行看法。该行料全年同店销售增长将胜 管理层预期，达10%，并令全年实现每股盈利增长15%的能见度更高。 消息面上，10月13日，成都天府艺术公园文创坊商业运营招标结果正式揭晓：华润万象生活关联企业润 欣商业投资(深圳)有限公司成都分公司中标第一成交候选人。公开资料显示，截至2025年6月，华润万 象生活全国在营购物中心已达125座，管理面积1356万㎡，年内已新签多个轻资产项目，轻资产占比持 续提升。 ...

消息面上，10月13日，成都天府艺术公园文创坊商业运营招标结果正式揭晓：华润万象生活关联企业润 欣商业投资（深圳）有限公司成都分公司中标第一成交候选人。公开资料显示，截至2025年6月，华润 万象生活全国在营购物中心已达125座，管理面积1356万㎡，年内已新签多个轻资产项目，轻资产占比 持续提升。 智通财经APP获悉，华润万象生活(01209)现涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.42%，报41.72港元，成交额1.64亿 港元。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，华润万象生活在商场营运方面持续胜预期，旗下商场在黄金周期间，录得按年 低十位数同店销售增长，推动整体商场零售额按年增长超过25%。虽然部分原因在于国庆与中秋节假期 相连，但集团增长高于同行，主要因万象城市占率优势持续扩大；年初至今其同店销售录低十位数增 长，加上今年首9个月整体零售额增长20%至25%，均可印证该行看法。该行料全年同店销售增长将胜 管理层预期，达10%，并令全年实现每股盈利增长15%的能见度更高。 ...

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the second-hand housing market in September shows a mixed performance, with transaction volume declining month-on-month but increasing year-on-year, suggesting ongoing market weakness [1][2]. Transaction Volume and Price Trends - In September, the transaction volume index for second-hand residential properties in 80 cities decreased by 10% month-on-month but increased by 19% year-on-year (Q3 +19%, Q2 +17%) [1]. - The registered transaction area in 15 cities rose by 6% month-on-month and grew by 9% year-on-year (Q3 +3%, Q2 +11%) [1]. - The price index for homogeneous second-hand residential properties fell by 1.7% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.7%, Q2 average -1.4%) [1]. - The negotiation space for transactions increased by 25 basis points to 8.91% [1]. Listing Trends - The number of second-hand residential listings in 130 cities increased by 0.4% month-on-month, continuing a slight upward trend [2]. - The price index for homogeneous listings in key cities decreased by 1.5% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.3%, Q2 average -1.2%) [2]. - The average adjustment for listed properties was -5.24%, indicating a conservative price expectation among sellers [2]. Rental Market Insights - The rental index for homogeneous listings decreased by 0.8% month-on-month (August -0.5%) [3]. - The average rental period remained stable at 2.12 months [3]. - The rental-to-sale ratio increased by 2 basis points to 2.33% due to declining listing prices [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the real estate and property management sectors, particularly in companies with solid fundamentals and profit quality such as China Resources Land, Jianfa International, and others [4]. - It also recommends considering undervalued stocks like Greentown China and New Town Holdings, given potential liquidity improvements [4]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying stocks with strong growth prospects or attractive dividend yields across various sectors [4].

房地产 2025 年 10 月 12 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 房地产基本面依然低迷，板块业绩短期仍然承压 看好 ——房地产行业 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 评 证 告 ⚫ 考虑到板块结算下降及利润率低位，预计 3Q2025 房企业绩仍承压、但有分化。基本面方 面，2022-24 年房地产行业基本面大幅下行；随着宏观及行业政策持续加码，预计后续行 业基本面有望呈现底部复苏迹象，但复苏态势仍然缓慢、且出现反复现象，预计改善路径 将呈现"L"型曲折性弱复苏走势。展望 3Q2025 板块业绩，我们认为板块业绩仍将继续 承压，主要源于：1）2021 年后销售连续下降导致结算下降；2）前期降价促 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 華潤萬象生活有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月8日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01209 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 | U ...