Core Viewpoint - China Resources Vientiane Life (01209) shows a positive market response with a 3.94% increase in stock price, currently at HKD 43.76, with a trading volume of HKD 81.1269 million [1]. Group 1: Financial Projections - CICC forecasts a 20% to 25% year-on-year growth in retail sales for shopping centers in 2025, with same-store sales expected to increase by 10% to 15% [1]. - Daiwa Securities predicts a 12.2% year-on-year growth in core net profit for China Resources Vientiane Life in 2025, with revenue expected to grow by 6.8% [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The property and office segments are expected to remain stable, with the basic property management business projected to maintain growth supported by active external expansion, with new contract amounts for the year expected to remain around RMB 1 billion, consistent with 2023-2024 [1]. - The value-added services segment is anticipated to face some pressure due to environmental factors, but the impact is considered manageable [1]. - Revenue from property management is expected to grow only by 1.4% due to a significant contraction in value-added service income, while revenue from commercial operations is estimated to grow by 16.8% driven by shopping center revenue growth [1].

智通财经APP获悉，华润万象生活(01209)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.33%，报43.5港元，成交额5964.15万 港元。 大华继显表示，预测华润万象生活2025年核心净利润将同比增长12.2%，收入料同比增长6.8%，当中物 业管理业务收入受增值服务收入大幅收缩所拖累，预料仅增长1.4%，而在购物中心收入增长带动下， 去年商业营运业务收入估计可增长16.8%。 中金发布研报称，预期华润万象生活2025全年购物中心零售额同比增长20至25%，同店销售同比增长10 至15%。该行认为，公司物业及写字楼板块维持平稳，预计基础物管业务在积极的外拓支持下保持增 长，全年新拓单年合同金额维持约10亿元人民币(下同)，与2023至2024年持平；增值业务则受环境影响 有所承压，但压力可控。 ...

华润万象生活(01209)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.33%，报43.5港元，成交额5964.15万港元。 中金发布研报称，预期华润万象生活2025全年购物中心零售额同比增长20至25%，同店销售同比增长10 至15%。该行认为，公司物业及写字楼板块维持平稳，预计基础物管业务在积极的外拓支持下保持增 长，全年新拓单年合同金额维持约10亿元人民币(下同)，与2023至2024年持平；增值业务则受环境影响 有所承压，但压力可控。 大华继显表示，预测华润万象生活2025年核心净利润将同比增长12.2%，收入料同比增长6.8%，当中物 业管理业务收入受增值服务收入大幅收缩所拖累，预料仅增长1.4%，而在购物中心收入增长带动下， 去年商业营运业务收入估计可增长16.8%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [3][4][21]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2% in total real estate development investment for 2025, and a significant drop of 35.8% in December alone [4][21]. - The sales side shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% for 2025, and a 15.6% drop in December [22][32]. - The funding side indicates a continued decline in funding sources, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in total funding for real estate development in 2025, and a sharp 26.7% drop in December [37]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - Total real estate development investment for 2025 reached 828.8 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with December's investment declining by 35.8% [4][21]. - New construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 19.4% decline [20][21]. - The report adjusts 2026 forecasts, predicting a 7.7% decline in new construction and a 9.1% drop in investment [21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December's sales area declining by 15.6% [22][32]. - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year decrease, with December's sales revenue down 23.6% [24][32]. - The average selling price of commercial housing for 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 4.3% year-on-year [31][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 9.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year, with December's funding sources down 26.7% [37]. - Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with a significant drop of 45% in December [37]. - The report anticipates that funding sources will gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The real estate market has shown a significant decline in sales, with a year-on-year decrease in sales area of 8.7% and sales amount down by 12.6% for the year 2025 [4][13] - The trend of "price for volume" is evident, with the average selling price of commercial housing dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [4][13] - New construction area has decreased for four consecutive years, with a decline of 20.4% in 2025 [5][20] - The total investment in real estate development has also seen a significant drop of 17.2% year-on-year [6][24] - The cash flow pressure on real estate companies remains high, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in funds available to developers [6][26] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 881 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [4][13] - The sales amount reached 8.39 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4][13] - December 2025 saw a sharp decline in sales area and amount, with year-on-year decreases of 15.6% and 23.6%, respectively [4][13] Construction Data - The new construction area for 2025 was 588 million square meters, reflecting a 20.4% decrease [5][20] - The completion area was 603 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year [5][20] Investment Data - Real estate development investment totaled 8.28 trillion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 17.2% [6][24] - The funds available to real estate developers were 9.31 trillion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year [6][26] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [7][34] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery are also highlighted, such as Longfor Group and New City Holdings [7][34] - Quality property management firms with strong service standards are recommended, including China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [7][34]

该行又预计公司全年经营性现金流维持1倍以上复盖净利润水平，将延续积极的股东回报意愿，维持历 史派息比例，2023、2024及2025上半年派息比例均为100%。 考虑到利息收入假设及业务预测调整，该行略降2025年和2026年核心净利润3%和 2%，至39.3亿元和44 亿元，引入2027年核心净利润预测48.5亿元，预期分别同比升12%、12%和10%。 中金发布研报称，预期华润万象生活(01209)2025全年购物中心零售额同比增长20至25%，同店销售同比 升10至15%。维持"跑赢行业"评级和目标价48港元。 物业及写字楼板块维持平稳，预计基础物管业务在积极的外拓支持下保持增长，全年新拓单年合同金额 维持约10亿元人民币(下同)，与2023至2024年持平；增值业务则受环境影响有所承压，但压力可控。 ...

考虑到利息收入假设及业务预测调整，该行略降2025年和2026年核心净利润3%和 2%，至39.3亿元和44 亿元，引入2027年核心净利润预测48.5亿元，预期分别同比升12%、12%和10%。 该行又预计公司全年经营性现金流维持1倍以上复盖净利润水平，将延续积极的股东回报意愿，维持历 史派息比例，2023、2024及2025上半年派息比例均为100%。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，预期华润万象生活(01209)2025全年购物中心零售额同比增长20至 25%，同店销售同比升10至15%。维持"跑赢行业"评级和目标价48港元。 物业及写字楼板块维持平稳，预计基础物管业务在积极的外拓支持下保持增长，全年新拓单年合同金额 维持约10亿元人民币(下同)，与2023至2024年持平；增值业务则受环境影响有所承压，但压力可控。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that China Resources Vientiane Life's retail sales from shopping centers will grow by 20% to 25% year-on-year in 2025, with same-store sales expected to increase by 10% to 15% [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The retail sales growth forecast for 2025 indicates a strong recovery and positive market sentiment [1] - Same-store sales growth is projected to be between 10% and 15%, reflecting healthy consumer demand [1] Group 2: Property and Office Segment - The property and office segment is expected to remain stable, with basic property management business continuing to grow due to active external expansion [1] - The annual new contract amount for property management is expected to maintain around 1 billion yuan, consistent with 2023 to 2024 levels [1] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company is expected to maintain operating cash flow covering net profit by more than 1 time, indicating strong financial health [1] - The company will continue its positive shareholder return policy, maintaining a historical dividend payout ratio of 100% for the first half of 2023, 2024, and 2025 [1] Group 4: Rating and Target Price - CICC maintains an "outperform industry" rating for the company with a target price of 48 HKD [1]

大华继显发布研报称，维持华润万象生活(01209)"持有"评级，目标价由41.1港元上调至43港元，预测华 润2025年核心净利润将同比增长12.2%，收入料同比增长6.8%，当中物业管理业务收入受增值服务收入 大幅收缩所拖累，预料仅增长1.4%，而在购物中心收入增长带动下，去年商业营运业务收入估计可增 长16.8%。考虑到增值服务业务持续受压，该行将华润万象生活2025至2027年盈利预测分别下调3.4%、 6.4%及7.2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dahua Jixian maintains a "Hold" rating for China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (01209), raising the target price from HKD 41.1 to HKD 43, with a forecasted core net profit growth of 12.2% and revenue growth of 6.8% for 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The property management business revenue is expected to grow only by 1.4%, significantly impacted by a substantial contraction in value-added service revenue [1] - The commercial operations revenue is estimated to grow by 16.8%, driven by increased income from shopping centers [1] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecasts for China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services for 2025 to 2027 have been revised downwards by 3.4%, 6.4%, and 7.2% respectively, due to ongoing pressure on the value-added services business [1]