Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

瑞银发布研报称，以加权平均值计算，2025年中国物管公司盈利预计同比增10%，相对于市场预期升 12%，另较2024年及2025年上半年增长15%及12%有所放缓，相信主要是由于现金收款比率下降、增值 服务收入与利润率下滑。 在主要物业管理公司中，该行预期绿城服务(02869)表现将会领先，其次为华润万象生活(01209)、保利 物业(06049)、中海物业(02669)、万物云(02602)及碧桂园服务(06098)，当中首选华润万象生活和绿城服 务。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the profitability of Chinese property management companies is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year in 2025, which is 12% higher than market expectations, but shows a slowdown compared to growth rates of 15% and 12% in 2024 and the first half of 2025 respectively [1] - The anticipated slowdown in growth is attributed to a decline in cash collection ratios and a decrease in revenue and profit margins from value-added services [1] Group 2 - Among major property management companies, Greentown Service (02869) is expected to outperform, followed by China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209), Poly Property (06049), China Overseas Property (02669), Wanwu Cloud (02602), and Country Garden Services (06098) [1] - The report favors China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Greentown Service as top picks in the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that the profitability of Chinese property management companies is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year in 2025, which is 12% higher than market expectations, but shows a slowdown compared to growth rates of 15% in 2024 and 12% in the first half of 2025 due to declining cash collection ratios and a drop in value-added service revenue and profit margins [1] Company Performance Expectations - Among major property management companies, Greentown Service (02869) is expected to outperform, followed by China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209), Poly Property (06049), China Overseas Property (02669), Wanwu Cloud (02602), and Country Garden Services (06098) [1] - The top picks are China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Greentown Service [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the overall performance of covered mainland property management companies is expected to meet expectations, with profit growth in the low single digits, but increasing differentiation among companies [1][2] Group 1: Profit Growth Expectations - Greentown Service (02869) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) are expected to achieve the highest profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to 15% [1] - Poly Property (06049) and China Overseas Property (02669) are projected to have mid-single-digit growth [1] - Sunac Services (01516) may continue to face a decline in core profits due to issues with receivables from past projects and non-core business burdens [1] Group 2: Cash Collection and Market Dynamics - Leading companies continue to benefit from third-party market consolidation, but weak cash collection remains a major obstacle [2] - Despite intensified competition, most property management companies have achieved their annual expansion goals, highlighting significant long-term market potential [2] - The cash collection ratio decreased by 1 to 2 percentage points year-on-year due to reduced resident prepayments and an increase in the proportion of high vacancy projects delivered after 2022 [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - Short-term profit margins for mainland property management and service companies remain under pressure [2] - Leading project management companies are expected to exit low-quality and non-core projects to optimize their business portfolios, maintaining annual operating cash flow at around 1 times profit [2] - The reduction of third-party receivables continues to be a key driver of profit differentiation among property management companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the overall performance of covered mainland property management companies is expected to meet expectations, with profit growth projected to be in the low single digits, but with increasing differentiation among companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Greentown Service (02869) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) are expected to achieve the highest profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to 15% [1] - Poly Property (06049) and China Overseas Property (02669) are anticipated to have median growth rates [1] - Sunac Services (01516) may continue to face a decline in core profits due to issues with receivables from past projects and non-core business drag [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Leading companies continue to benefit from third-party market consolidation, although weak cash collection remains a major obstacle [1] - Despite intensified competition, most property management companies have achieved their annual expansion targets, highlighting significant long-term market potential [1] - The cash collection ratio declined by 1 to 2 percentage points year-on-year due to reduced resident prepayments and an increase in the proportion of high vacancy projects delivered after 2022 [1] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - Short-term profit margins for mainland property management and service companies remain under pressure [1] - Leading project management companies are expected to exit low-quality and non-core projects to optimize their business portfolios, maintaining annual operating cash flow at around one times profit [1] - The ongoing reduction of third-party receivables continues to be a key driver of profit differentiation among property management companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ruiyuan Fund disclosed its Q4 2025 report, indicating strategic adjustments in its portfolio, including increased positions in specific sectors while reducing exposure to others, reflecting a proactive approach to investment management [1][3]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - The Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund increased its holdings in Cambricon (688256.SH) while reducing positions in Xinyisheng (300502.SZ), Alibaba-W (09988), and Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) [1]. - The top ten holdings saw a shift away from telecommunications stocks, replaced by solar energy and high-end semiconductor equipment manufacturers, indicating a focus on sectors with strong performance in Q4 [1]. - The fund aims to minimize investment uncertainties in Q1 2026 while maintaining a focus on prominent sectors and stocks [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of the report's end, the net asset value per share of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed A Fund was 1.9685 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.57%, underperforming its benchmark by 1.37% [2]. - The net asset value per share of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed C Fund was 1.9159 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.47%, also underperforming its benchmark by 1.37% [2]. Group 3: Future Strategy - The fund managers, Fu Pengbo and Zhu Lin, prepared for 2026 by reducing holdings in companies with weak fundamentals and increasing investments in data center liquid cooling and computing power-related companies, based on industry trends and individual stock research [3]. - Ruiyuan's other fund, managed by Zhao Feng, has reached its highest stock position in three years, reintroducing holdings in Midea Group (000333.SZ) and other companies while reducing exposure to certain stocks [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Zhao Feng noted a favorable macroeconomic cycle for equity assets, with expectations of improved corporate earnings quality as China gradually moves out of deflationary expectations [4]. - The focus will remain on companies with solid fundamentals and strong competitive barriers, aiming for excess returns through structural allocation [4]. - Attention is directed towards domestic leading companies expanding overseas, which are expected to drive performance growth through enhanced product quality and brand recognition over the next five to ten years [4].

业绩方面，截至报告期末睿远成长价值混合A基金份额净值为1.9685元，报告期内，该类基金份额净值增长率为0.57%，同期业绩比 较基准收益率为-1.37%；截至报告期末睿远成长价值混合C基金份额净值为1.9159元，报告期内，该类基金份额净值增长率为 0.47%，同期业绩比较基准收益率为-1.37%。 傅鹏博和朱璘在季报中表示，为2026年的组合搭建做了准备：一方面，减持了基本面趋势偏弱的公司，降低了其对组合净值可能带 来的负面影响；另一方面，增加了数据中心液冷、存力和算力的相关公司，主要是基于对行业发展态势，以及个股跟踪研究后的选 择。对于上一年重点配置的光模块、PCB材料、芯片、数据中心液冷等板块和个股，持续看好其未来的发展，2026年将进一步加大 研究力度。 近日，睿远基金披露2025年四季报。在2025年四季度期间，傅鹏博和朱璘管理的睿远成长价值混合基金加仓了寒武纪(688256.SH)， 新易盛(300502.SZ)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、东山精密(002384.SZ)等个股则遭其减仓。从前十大持仓来看，较为明显的变化是移动运营 商个股配置不在前十行列，取而代之的是四季度表现突出的光伏和半导体 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure, with all 70 cities experiencing a decline in second-hand housing prices for four consecutive months, indicating a "catch-up" phenomenon in first-tier cities [9][19] - The average year-on-year decline in new housing prices across 70 cities in 2025 was 3.8%, which is less than the 4.5% decline in 2024, marking three consecutive years of decline [4][12] - The average year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices was 6.3% in 2025, also less than the 7.4% decline in 2024, indicating a persistent downward trend for four years [4][12] Real Estate Market Performance - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, maintaining the same rate of decline as in November [4][12] - The total sales area in December was 93.99 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 17.3% [12][13] - The total investment in real estate development in December was 419.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, marking the largest single-month decline since 2000 [16][19] Housing Price Trends - In first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in December, with Shanghai showing a slight increase of 0.2%, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experienced varying declines [5][9] - The average year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities was 1.8% in 2025, a reduction of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][9] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month in December, with an average year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: stable companies with high sales and land reserve ratios in core cities, smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [10][20] - Companies such as China Resources Land, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou are highlighted for their strong market positions [10][20] - The report anticipates potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 2026, which could help stabilize the market [9][19]