Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

房地产 2025 年 07 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积同环比下降，加大闲 置存量土地回收力度—行业周报》 -2025.7.13 《新房成交面积环比增长，多地力推 商转公贷款—行业周报》-2025.7.6 《2025 年 1-6 月强销售金额点评：1-6 月百强销售同比收缩，建发金茂单月 销 售 表 现 靓 眼 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.7.1 新房上海同环比领涨，二手房价同比降幅缩小 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 新房上海同环比领涨，二手房价同比降幅缩小 国家统计 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a "buy" recommendation for stocks in this industry due to recent price recoveries and potential policy support [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a significant increase of +6.1% in the week of July 5-11, outperforming other sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by +0.6% [3][17]. - There is an expectation for new stimulus policies to be introduced, particularly in light of the upcoming Central Urban Work Conference, which historically has influenced urban development strategies and real estate policies [5][13]. - The trend of Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization in the real estate sector is emerging, enhancing liquidity and providing new financing options for real estate companies [6][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector ranked first among all sectors with a weekly increase of +6.1%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked sixth with a +0.6% increase [3][17]. - The property service index in Hong Kong increased by +1%, indicating a stable performance relative to other indices [25]. Land Market - In the week of July 5-11, the total area of residential land sold across 300 cities was 445 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 48% and a year-on-year decrease of 24% [26]. - The average premium rate for land transactions was reported at 8%, with a cumulative area of 19,016 million square meters sold since the beginning of 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [26][29]. New Housing Sales - In 47 cities, new housing sales totaled 261 million square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 49% and a year-on-year decrease of 14% [33]. - Sales in first-tier cities decreased by 45% week-on-week and 17% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 53% week-on-week decrease and a 10% year-on-year decrease [33]. Second-Hand Housing Sales - The total area of second-hand housing sold in 22 cities was 229 million square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 4% and a year-on-year decrease of 2% [41]. - First-tier cities experienced a 13% week-on-week decrease and a 6% year-on-year decrease, while second-tier cities saw a 2% increase week-on-week but an 8% decrease year-on-year [41]. Policy Expectations - The anticipation of new policies is growing due to recent declines in real estate data, with expectations for the Central Urban Work Conference to guide future policy directions [5][13]. - Historical insights from previous conferences indicate a focus on urban development and potential support for the real estate sector [5][13]. RWA Tokenization - The report highlights the development of RWA tokenization in real estate, which allows for the division of property ownership into tradable tokens, thereby increasing liquidity and providing new investment opportunities [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a new consumption-boosting plan introduced by Beijing, while both new and second-hand housing transactions have shown a month-on-month decline [1][8] - The real estate sector has outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of 5.3% [5][13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 6.12%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.82%, indicating strong sector performance [5][13] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of July 4-10, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 25,620 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% but a month-on-month decline of 36%. The total transaction area was 2.092 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a month-on-month decrease of 54.2% [6][20] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,990 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 10% and a month-on-month decline of 6.7%. The total transaction area was 1.692 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [6][38] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.848 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a depletion cycle of 142.6 weeks [6][51] 3. Company News - China Merchants Shekou reported a signed sales area of 695,000 square meters and a sales amount of 21.748 billion yuan in June 2025. For the first half of 2025, the cumulative signed sales area was 3.35 million square meters, with a total sales amount of 88.894 billion yuan [17][19] - Gemdale Group announced a signed area of 262,000 square meters in June 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 41.39%, with a signed amount of 3.1 billion yuan, down 53.24% year-on-year [17][19] - Huaxia Happiness expects a net profit loss of between 5.5 billion and 7.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 4.849 billion yuan in the same period last year [18][19]

Core Insights - The property service industry in China is experiencing increased competition among top companies, with the top 50 firms adding approximately 84.47 million square meters of new contracts in June 2025, and the top 10 firms accounting for 68.3% of this total [1] Group 1: Market Expansion - In June, the top 10 property service companies had a threshold increase of 51.3% compared to the previous month, reaching 2.71 million square meters for new contracts [1] - China Overseas Property led the new contract area with 12.1 million square meters in June [1] Group 2: Third-Party Expansion Analysis - A total of 50 companies added 74.18 million square meters of new third-party expansion in June, with only four companies achieving a scale of 5 million square meters or more, representing 42.9% of the total [9][10] - The top three sectors for third-party expansion were residential (25.2%), schools (20.8%), and office projects (18.6%) [12] Group 3: Performance of Leading Companies - Poly Property achieved the highest single project contract amount in June, totaling 26.379 million yuan for a city service project in Tianjin [17][22] - The top five companies in terms of new associated area contracts were Greentown Service, Poly Property, China Overseas Property, Longfor Intelligent Living, and Wanwu Cloud, with Greentown Service leading at 1.22 million square meters [23] Group 4: Diverse Business Layout - Leading property companies are increasingly expanding into non-residential sectors to diversify their service offerings and seek new profit growth points [12][14] - Wanwu Cloud had the largest expansion in office and residential projects, with 700,000 square meters and 1.35 million square meters, respectively [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and the stock market, which has been a clear directive from the central government since September 2024. The focus on building high-quality housing is expected to drive a wave of development in this sector [4][47] - The report suggests that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with various local governments implementing policies to support housing demand and stabilize the market [47] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.3%, the ChiNext Index by 1.5%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.5%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 0.3% during the week [5][8] - In terms of individual stocks, *ST Nanzhi saw a significant increase of 14.6%, while ST Shenyuan experienced a decline of 6.9% [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of June 28 to July 4, 42 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction of 3.08 million square meters, a decrease of 2.5% from the previous week. Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction volume has decreased by 2.7% year-on-year [14][18] - For July, as of the week of July 1 to July 4, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.07 million square meters, an increase of 33.3% month-on-month but a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, 21 key cities recorded a total of 1.96 million square meters in second-hand housing transactions, a decrease of 9.1% from the previous week. Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction volume has increased by 20.5% year-on-year [30][34] - For July, as of the week of July 1 to July 4, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.21 million square meters, an increase of 51.2% month-on-month but a decrease of 13.3% year-on-year [34] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for local governments to effectively utilize real estate regulation policies to promote a stable and healthy market. Various cities are implementing measures to support housing demand, including easing housing fund policies [47][48] - Specific measures include the extension of housing purchase subsidies in Wuhan until the end of 2025 and the relaxation of housing fund loan policies in cities like Nanjing and Guangzhou [47][48] Company Announcements - In June, major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales, with Yuexiu Real Estate at 10.8 billion yuan (down 29% year-on-year), Poly Developments at 29.01 billion yuan (down 31% year-on-year), and China Overseas Development at 29.71 billion yuan (down 36.3% year-on-year) [50][51] - Financing activities included Yuexiu Real Estate applying to issue bonds up to 9.6 billion yuan and Vanke A borrowing 6.249 billion yuan from its largest shareholder [50][51]

Core Insights - Shenzhen's commercial market is experiencing steady growth in the first half of 2025, driven by both "stock renewal" and "incremental breakthroughs" with over 400,000 square meters of new commercial space added [1] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a surge in commercial openings, with over 10 new projects set to launch, including major developments across various districts [1][17] Group 1: Commercial New Forces - The keyword for Shenzhen's commercial landscape in the first half of 2025 is "renewal," with 4 out of 7 new or upgraded projects focusing on stock renovation [1] - Stock renovation is characterized as a "precise operation" based on location and market demand, successfully revitalizing old commercial spaces [2] - Notable projects include iN City Square, which underwent a significant transformation to attract younger consumers, achieving a 97% leasing rate and 95% opening rate [3] - PA MALL, previously PAFCmall, has been rebranded and renovated to enhance its appeal as a high-end business and lifestyle destination, achieving a 98.9% occupancy rate [5] - Other transformations include the conversion of traditional department stores into community-centric commercial centers, such as the JD MALL and New World Times Square [6] Group 2: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal in Shenzhen is not just about physical space but also about enhancing the value of entire districts, with two major projects exemplifying this trend [7] - The Shekou Prince Bay project is highlighted as a model for urban renewal, integrating production and city functions while enhancing cultural value [8] - K11 ECOAST showcases a blend of art, nature, and local culture, creating an immersive experience that attracts consumers [10] - The Yitian Holiday Plaza revitalizes an old urban area, achieving impressive visitor numbers and a high occupancy rate shortly after opening [11] Group 3: Third Quarter Focus - The announcement of the Shenzhen Bay MixC Phase II marks a significant evolution in the Houhai business district, enhancing connectivity and functionality [13] - The construction of Shenzhen Bay Cultural Plaza is set to be a key driver for the area's functional upgrade, linking various commercial and cultural venues [15] - The new branding of Shenzhen Bay MixC emphasizes a lifestyle approach, integrating art, luxury, and exploration into its offerings [16] Group 4: Observations for the Second Half - Shenzhen's commercial market is poised for a "quantitative and qualitative leap" in 2025, with 26 new projects planned, totaling 1.8295 million square meters [17] - The western part of Shenzhen, particularly the Bao'an district, is expected to see the most significant growth with 9 new projects [18] - Major upcoming projects include the world's largest indoor ski resort and a new cultural complex, both expected to attract millions of visitors [19][21] - Smaller, unique commercial projects are also emerging, enhancing the diversity of Shenzhen's commercial landscape [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is still in a destocking trend, with new housing market conditions remaining challenging despite some policy support aimed at stabilizing expectations and promoting recovery [4][32] - The report highlights the importance of strong product capability and inventory management in identifying quality real estate companies for investment [5] Summary by Sections Industry Data - New housing transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 2% increase while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 38% decline [6] - In July, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities dropped by 25% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities also down by 25% [9][10] - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 1% week-on-week, with a current available area of 88.85 million square meters [23] Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for multi-faceted approaches to stabilize expectations and promote recovery in the real estate market [32][33] - Local policies include the expansion of housing provident fund loans in Nanjing and new policies in Hainan and Guangzhou to facilitate housing loans [32][33] Company Dynamics - Vanke has applied for a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group, marking the sixth loan transaction this year [5] - Poly Developments reported sales of 29 billion yuan, down 31% year-on-year, while China Overseas Development reported 29.7 billion yuan, down 36% [5] - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, including companies like China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the real estate sector, recommending selective investments in companies with strong fundamentals and potential policy benefits [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a slight increase of +0.3% while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by +1.7% during the week of June 28 to July 4, 2025 [3][18]. - The land market's premium rate has decreased, with a total of 762,000 square meters of residential land sold across 300 cities, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 35% and a year-on-year decline of 15% [3][29]. - The first half of 2025 showed a significant improvement in land market performance, with a total supply of 21,930 million square meters and a total transaction of 17,390 million square meters, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous years [5][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights that the sales volume of commercial housing in 47 cities reached 514,000 square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 3% and a year-on-year decrease of 8% [4][34]. - The average new home price in May showed a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, indicating a gradual stabilization in the market [4]. Land Market - The average transaction price for residential land in the first half of 2025 across 300 cities was 4,953 yuan per square meter, with significant year-on-year increases across different city tiers [5][14]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amount included Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 41.4 billion, 40.1 billion, 39.3 billion, 34.1 billion, and 31.3 billion yuan respectively [29][33]. Sales Performance - The total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of 2025 was 1,782 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.4% [6][16]. - The report notes a divergence where the decline in sales is greater than the decline in investment, indicating a challenging sales environment for real estate companies [6][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in real estate stocks during market dips, particularly focusing on developers with strong operations in core first and second-tier cities [7]. - Suggested companies include Jianfa International Group, China Overseas Development, and Binjiang Group for developers, and Beike for real estate intermediaries [7].