Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector and property management, highlighting potential opportunities in shopping centers and the "Good House" new track [3][4]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate industry continues to weaken, with significant declines in new starts and completions. For January to November 2025, total real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18% [3][4][19]. - The sales side shows a downward trend in sales area, sales amount, and average sales price. For the same period, the sales area fell by 7.8%, sales amount by 11.1%, and average price by 3.4% year-on-year [20][32]. - The funding side indicates a widening decline in funding sources, with total funding down by 11.9% year-on-year. In November alone, funding sources dropped by 32.5% [37]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to November 2025, real estate development investment totaled 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year. In November, the investment growth rate was -30.3%, a decline of 7.3 percentage points from October [4][19]. - The residential investment during the same period was 604.32 billion yuan, also down 15% year-on-year, with November showing a -29.5% growth rate [4][19]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January to November was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year. In November, the sales area decreased by 17.3% [20][32]. - The total sales amount reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with November's sales amount at 611.3 billion yuan, a 25.1% decrease [20][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development enterprises amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year. In November, the decline was 32.5% [37]. - Domestic loans decreased by 10.4% in November, while self-raised funds fell by 30.7% [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting opportunities in shopping center value reassessment and new housing tracks [4][22][39] Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with cumulative investment from January to November 2025 down by 15.9% year-on-year, and a significant drop of 30.3% in November alone [4][21] - The sales side is also under pressure, with cumulative sales area down by 7.8% year-on-year and a notable decline of 25.1% in November [22][35] - Funding sources are tightening, with total funding for real estate development down by 11.9% year-on-year, and a sharp decline of 32.5% in November [40] Investment Side Summary - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to November 2025 reached 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with November's single-month investment declining by 30.3% [5][21] - New construction starts fell by 20.5% year-on-year, with a 27.6% drop in November [19][21] - The report forecasts continued weakness in investment, with predictions for 2025-2026 showing construction starts down by 18.0% and total investment down by 14.2% [4][21] Sales Side Summary - Cumulative sales area for real estate from January to November 2025 was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with November's sales area declining by 17.3% [22][35] - Cumulative sales revenue reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a 25.1% drop in November [22][35] - The average selling price of properties decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 9.5% in November [34][35] Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with November showing a 32.5% decline [40] - Domestic loans decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a 10.4% drop in November [40] - Self-raised funds fell by 11.9% year-on-year, with a significant 30.7% decline in November [40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing weak sales under high base conditions, with a trend of exchanging price for volume continuing towards the end of the year [1][5] - The overall performance of the sales market has been lackluster since the second half of the year, with a significant decline in sales data reflecting persistent market hesitation [8][33] Summary by Sections Sales Data - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 8.1% [5][14] - In November 2025, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable trend of price reduction to stimulate sales [5][14] Construction Data - The new construction area from January to November 2025 was 535 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 19.9% [6][19] - The completion area was 395 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on construction data [6][19] Investment Data - Real estate development investment from January to November 2025 was 7.86 trillion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment down 15.0% [7][23] - The funds available to real estate developers were 8.51 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with significant declines in various funding sources [7][25] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][35] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8][35]

2025年上半年实现营收85.2亿，同比增长6.5%;公司综合毛利率37.1%，同比增长3.1pct;权益股东应占净 利润20.0亿，同比增长7.4%。毛利提升，带动归母净利润增速高于营收增速。公司各项费用率均下降， 经营效率提升，销售费用率1.1%，同比下降0.6pct，总体费用率7.0%，同比下降0.7pct。公司每股中期 派息0.529元，同比增长89.6%，中期派息率60%，提升24pct，同时每股特别派息0.352元，股东回报得 到大幅提高。 背靠母公司资源，商管增速亮眼 2025年上半年，公司商业航道营收32.7亿元，同比增长14.65%，毛利率66.1%，同比上升5.2pct。公司购 物中心商业运营总建筑面积达1309.3万平米，同比增长14.11%，来自母公司的面积占比84.4%;写字楼商 业运营总建筑面积达187.5万平，同比增长7.7%，来自母公司的面积占比73.3%。公司在商业航道和母公 司紧密合作，业绩表现亮眼。商业航道营收占比达38.3%，同时营收维持高增速，毛利提升明显，商业 航道成为公司整体营收和利润增长的重要动力。 中泰证券发布研报称，维持华润万象生活(01209)"买入"评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The Shanghai land market is showing signs of recovery with improved land quality and increased willingness among developers to acquire land [8] - The land supply in Shanghai for 2025 is reported at 1.6524 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.16%, while the planned construction area is 3.2134 million square meters, a decrease of 3.71% [12][19] - The average premium rate for land transactions in Shanghai reached 15.75% in 2025, an increase of 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, with total land transfer fees amounting to 140.022 billion yuan, up 1.46% year-on-year [23] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai Land Supply and Transaction Situation - The total area of land released for construction in Shanghai in 2025 is 1.6524 million square meters, with a planned construction area of 3.2134 million square meters [12] - The transaction area of construction land in 2025 is 1.6402 million square meters, a decrease of 5.63% year-on-year, while the planned construction area transacted is 3.1610 million square meters, down 14.46% year-on-year [19] - The average transaction floor price is 44,297.15 yuan per square meter, an increase of 8.63% year-on-year, and the average land price is 85,358.89 yuan per square meter, up 7.50% year-on-year [21] 2. Shanghai Land Auction Analysis - The top 10 high-premium land parcels are primarily located in the Pudong New Area and Hongkou District, indicating higher auction activity in these central urban areas compared to suburban regions [38] - The auction market in 2025 saw no failed bids, reflecting a robust demand for land [47] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with stable performance and high safety margins, such as China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, and Huafa Group [47] - Beneficiary stocks recommended include Yuexiu Property, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [47] - For the property sector, recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, and China Merchants Jinling [47]

购物中心板块：运营能力远超同业。板块的毛利润贡献占比达56.3%（1H25）已经成为绝对利润支柱。 公司购物中心运营能力远超同业，零售额方面，1-9M25 累计零售额同比增20-25%，同店增10-15%，重 奢定位的14 个购物中心同店增速高于整体，均远超同期社零增速的3.0%；国庆期间，公司购物中心整 体零售额同比增25%，同店增速低双位数，重奢定位的14 个购物中心同店增20%，对比上海重点商圈销 售额同比10.2%的增速，显著更强。外拓方面，公司在10 月底已落地8 个项目，预计全年10 个的目标将 有序完成。新开业方面，截至9 月，公司开业购物中心10 个，预计全年14 个的目标也将稳步达成。我 们预估购物中心板块的收入/毛利润增速将在25 年达18%/27%，得益于毛利率显著提高5.9 个百分点至约 78.5%，毛利贡献占比也进一步提升5 个百分点至约60%。 基础物管板块：三方外拓持续发力。公司全年三方外拓目标年化合同金额约10 亿元，截至9 月已完成近 8 亿元。基于今年公司依然属于处于低质项目退盘阶段（1H25 退盘约1,300 万方）及当前经济环境下受 到的收缴率挑战，我们预估全年综合在管 ...

摩根大通发表研报指，在近日举行的中央经济工作会议上，关于对房地产市场的表态与先前类似，但与 过去几次政府会议相比，今次关于房地产市场的着墨更多，显示稳定房地产行业仍是内地关键任务之 一。摩通表示，今次会议上未提及具体措施，但认为下一步的政策措施或推出旨在降低购房成本的措 施。该行首选股为华润置地、华润万象生活与中国金茂。 ...

招银国际发表报告指，华润万象生活购物中心板块已成为绝对利润支柱，且持续展现远超同业的营运能 力。首三季零售额按年增20-25%，同期社零为3%，国庆期间零售额按年增25%，同期上海重点商圈增 长10.2%。该行预计板块利润贡献占比将在2025财年提高5个百分点至接近60%，基于此将公司目标市盈 率倍数提高5%至23倍，同时将估值对应年份滚动至2026年，目标价上调18%至51.84港元，维持"买 入"评级。公司具备高于同业的盈利增速、多元化布局以及较有吸引力的股息率，在央企同业中优势凸 显。 ...

12 December 2025 | 7:25AM CST Equity Research CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE (1209.HK) Consolidator with high-visibility runway; Buy We reiterate our Buy rating on CR Mixc given its competitive edge in commercial management and a highly visible, multi-year growth runway. We believe the company is poised for robust expansion via third-party mall management, which would drive significant scale and margin improvement through operating leverage. This is complemented by a strategic, quality focused approach in i ...

招银国际发布研报称，由于华润万象生活(01209)估值更高的零售板块业务表现优预期，将贡献更高的 盈利占比，故上调目标市盈率倍数至23倍，对应年份滚动至2026年。因此，相应上调目标价18%，由 43.86港元升至51.84港元，维持"买入"评级。 报告表示，华润万象生活购物中心板块已成为绝对利润支柱，持续展现远超同业的运营能力。该行预 计，该板块利润贡献占比将于今年全年度，提升至60%，收入及毛利润增速分别达18%及27%。另外， 集团自2023年起至今维持100%派息，该行预计今年将持续此派息趋势，对应4.4%的股息率，在央企中 具较高吸引力。 ...