Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The 2026 real estate market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend, with two significant turning points anticipated throughout the year [2] - The overall sales volume and price are projected to face pressure in Q1, with potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 to stabilize the market in Q2 [3][24] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support demand and stabilize investment, particularly focusing on the financial pressures faced by developers [8][19] Sales Forecast - The report forecasts a total sales area of 810 million square meters in 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8% - The average sales price is expected to be 9,144 yuan per square meter, down 4% year-on-year - The total sales amount is projected to be 7.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% decline compared to the previous year [3][22][21] Development Investment - Real estate development investment is anticipated to reach 6.9 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2025 [4][21] - The report indicates that the decline in new construction area is expected to be 18% year-on-year, with a total of 480 million square meters [4][21] Completion Forecast - The report predicts that the completion area will be 490 million square meters in 2026, down 19% year-on-year, continuing the trend of cyclical contraction [5][21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main contradiction in the real estate market has shifted from "shrinking transaction volume" to "continuing price declines," particularly affecting the second-hand housing market [9] - It suggests that the market's recovery will depend on effective policy measures and the stabilization of developer financing [8][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Developers with stable fundamentals and high market share in first and second-tier cities 2. Smaller developers showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new operational models in the new consumption era [9][21]

Group 1 - Bank of America Securities reports a divergence in market views regarding Hong Kong property prices, with offshore investors being more optimistic compared to local and mainland investors who focus on valuation adequacy [1] - The firm has raised target prices for several real estate stocks by an average of 10% based on a narrowing discount to net asset value, reflecting strong performance in Hong Kong development projects and high-end retail sales [1] - Bank of America Securities favors developers such as Cheung Kong Holdings and Sino Land due to their earnings sensitivity to property price growth, while preferring rental stocks like Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties for their high dividend yields and resilience in mainland luxury retail [1] Group 2 - The firm predicts a 10% to 15% increase in property prices over the next two years, noting that developers have already factored in a 15% to 20% growth in transaction volume into their stock prices [2] - Two major risks are identified: limited room for further cuts in the best lending rate by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the potential return to floating mortgage rates if bond market rate cuts do not materialize by the end of 2026 [2] - Stagnation in median household income and a year-on-year decline in approved immigration visas for 2025 may restrict further price increases in the property market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Hong Kong developers have already factored in a 15% to 20% growth in transaction volume for the next two years into their stock prices, with projected property price increases of 10% to 15% during the same period [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The firm predicts property prices in Hong Kong will rise between 10% and 15% over the next two years [1] - Developers are expected to see a transaction volume growth of 15% to 20% incorporated into their stock valuations [1] Group 2: Risks - Two major risks identified include limited room for further cuts in the prime interest rate as indicated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [1] - The preferential five-year mortgage rates offered by banks are set to expire at the end of April, which may impact borrowing costs [1] - A stagnation in the median monthly household income and a year-on-year decline in approved immigration visas for 2025 could restrict further property price increases [1] Group 3: Developer Preferences - The firm favors Cheung Kong Holdings and Sino Land due to their high sensitivity to property price growth [1] - For rental stocks, the preference is for Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties, attributed to their higher dividend yields and resilience in mainland luxury retail [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant year-on-year growth due to a low base from the previous year, particularly during the Spring Festival period, but there is a month-on-month decline in transactions [1][6] - The Shanghai pilot program for purchasing second-hand homes for rental housing is expected to positively influence market expectations and confidence if implemented effectively [2][6] - The new housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year growth rate [6][17] - The inventory of new homes is decreasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [6][46] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 17,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 225.1% [18][19] - The new housing transaction area was 163.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 9.6% and a year-on-year increase of 203.0% [18][27] - The transaction volume and area for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed varying month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates [20][21][22] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 174.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 349.7% [6][19] - The month-on-month decline in transaction volume for second-hand homes is more pronounced in first-tier cities compared to second and third/fourth-tier cities [6][19] Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,235 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [46][47] - The de-stocking cycle for new homes is 17.4 months, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase [46][47] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 1,188.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 74.1% and a year-on-year increase of 582.1% [6][14] - The average land price per square meter decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a cooling in land prices [6][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, those that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [7][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the performance of Swire Properties' retail projects in Shanghai and Beijing has improved significantly, with retail sales increasing by 49.6% and 11.2% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company plans to launch the first phase of the Guangzhou Julongwan Taikoo Li project by the end of 2025, focusing on retail, dining, and leisure, while other projects in Sanya, Shanghai, and Lujiazui are progressing as scheduled, expected to be completed starting in 2026 [1] - In the context of high vacancy rates in the Hong Kong office market, the overall occupancy rate of the company's office buildings in Hong Kong is recorded at 91%, with a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point to 96% for Taikoo Place, while Taikoo Square's occupancy rate decreased by 4 percentage points to 89% [1] Group 2 - The rental rates for the company's office buildings have decreased by 13% to 15% year-on-year, attributed to the company's flexible leasing strategy aimed at prioritizing occupancy rates and tenant retention amid intense market competition [1] - CICC maintains a "outperform industry" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 26.5, corresponding to dividend yields of 4.3% and 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. The total transaction area for new housing was 170 million square meters [22][21]. - The second-hand housing market showed a similar trend, with a 7% week-on-week decrease but a 174% year-on-year increase in transaction area, totaling 199 million square meters [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Industry Data - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,270.7 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,217.1 billion yuan [2]. - The sector's performance in the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.3%, a 6-month increase of 7.4%, and a 12-month increase of 12.8% [3]. Policy Developments - Fujian province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Sales Performance - In the first week of February, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 838 million square meters year-to-date, reflecting a 28% year-on-year decrease [22][21]. - The report notes that the average transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 1,067 million square meters year-to-date, indicating a 23% year-on-year increase [27][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income assets such as leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [6].

Group 1: Bubble Mart (泡泡玛特) - Citic Jiantou maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Bubble Mart, highlighting the company's "one strong, multiple strong" IP structure, with Labubu's influence solidified and new IPs like Xingxingren and Crybaby driving high growth [1] Group 2: MGM China (美高梅中国) - Haitong International maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China, reporting a 21.4% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q4 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising 29.5% to HKD 2.75 billion, driven by strong performance from MGM Cotai and precise targeting of high-end customers [2] - CICC also maintains an "Outperform" rating for MGM China, noting adjusted EBITDA of HKD 2.753 billion for Q4 2025, up 29% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations, despite a brand fee increase expected to impact net profit by about 14% [4] - Citic Securities maintains an "Accumulate" rating for MGM China, indicating that the company's performance exceeded expectations, with net income and adjusted EBITDA recovering to pre-pandemic levels, supported by strong performances from MGM Macau and MGM Cotai [7] Group 3: Yum China (百胜中国) - Haitong International maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China, reporting a 9% year-on-year revenue increase for Q4 2025 and a 24% increase in adjusted net profit, with same-store sales growing for three consecutive quarters and restaurant profit margins improving by 0.7 percentage points to 13.0% [3] Group 4: Innovent Biologics (信达生物) - CICC maintains an "Outperform" rating for Innovent Biologics, projecting product revenue of RMB 11.9 billion for 2025, a 45% year-on-year increase, with seven new products included in the 2026 medical insurance catalog [5] Group 5: Swire Properties (太古地产) - CICC maintains an "Outperform" rating for Swire Properties, noting significant recovery in luxury retail operations in mainland China, with retail sales in Shanghai and Beijing increasing by 49.6% and 11.2% respectively [6] Group 6: Meituan (美团) - Citic Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan, announcing a plan to acquire Dingdong Maicai for USD 717 million, which is expected to strengthen its East China front warehouse network and bring in HKD 170 million in adjusted net profit post-integration [8] Group 7: Kuaishou (快手) - Citic Jiantou maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, highlighting the launch of its AI video model 3.0, which supports 15-second generation and intelligent scene segmentation, with commercial growth expected to reach USD 240 million in ARR by 2025 [10] Group 8: Huiju Technology (汇聚科技) - Citic Jiantou maintains a "Buy" rating for Huiju Technology, emphasizing its deep ties with leading CSPs like Google and the benefits from the upgrade of optical modules, projecting a revenue increase of 82.1% year-on-year for H1 2025 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its earnings forecast for Swire Properties (01972) and keeps an outperform rating with a target price of HKD 26.5, implying an 8% upside potential and corresponding dividend yields of 4.3% and 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The performance of high-end shopping centers in mainland China is outstanding, with retail sales in Shanghai's Xinyi Swire and Beijing's Sanlitun Taikoo Li expected to grow by 49.6% and 11.2% year-on-year in 2025, respectively [2] - Other projects such as Shanghai's Front Beach Taikoo Li, Chengdu Taikoo Li, and Guangzhou Taikoo Hui also recorded year-on-year retail sales growth of 6.9%, 6.5%, and 1.6%, with fourth-quarter performance improving compared to the first three quarters [2] - New projects are on track, with the first phase of Guangzhou Julong Bay Taikoo Li launched by the end of 2025, and other projects in Sanya, Shanghai, and Lujiazui expected to be completed starting in 2026 [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Office Market - The overall occupancy rate of the company's Hong Kong office buildings is 91%, a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points, while the core area of Taikoo Place saw an increase of 1 percentage point to 96% [3] - The rental rate for office buildings is expected to decline by 13-15% in 2025 due to competitive market conditions, with the company adopting flexible leasing strategies to prioritize occupancy and tenant retention [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Retail Market - Retail sales in Hong Kong's high-end shopping center Taikoo Place and mass-market center Taikoo City Center are expected to grow by 5.6% and 2.7% year-on-year in 2025, outperforming the overall Hong Kong retail sector, which is projected to grow by 1.0% [4] - The growth is attributed to the recovery of luxury brand sales from a low base and the company's ongoing tenant adjustments and marketing activities to attract diverse customer traffic [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Swire Properties (01972) and keeps an outperform rating with a target price of HKD 26.5, implying a 4.3%/4.5% dividend yield for 2025-26 and an 8% upside potential [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The performance of luxury shopping centers in mainland China is outstanding, with retail sales in Shanghai and Beijing expected to grow by 49.6% and 11.2% year-on-year in 2025, respectively [2] - New projects are progressing as planned, with the first phase of Guangzhou Julong Bay Taikoo Li launched by the end of 2025, and other projects in Sanya, Shanghai, and Lujiazui expected to be completed starting in 2026 [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Office Market - The overall occupancy rate of the company's Hong Kong office buildings is 91%, a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points, while the occupancy rate in core areas like Taikoo Place increased by 1 percentage point to 96% [3] - Office rental rates are expected to decline by 13-15% in 2025 due to competitive market conditions, with the company prioritizing occupancy and tenant retention [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Retail Recovery - Retail sales in Hong Kong's luxury mall Taikoo Place and mass-market mall Taikoo City Center are expected to grow by 5.6% and 2.7% year-on-year in 2025, outperforming the overall retail sector in Hong Kong [4] - The recovery is attributed to the resurgence of luxury brand sales and the company's ongoing tenant adjustments and marketing efforts to attract diverse customer flows [4]

Core Viewpoint - Swire Properties' residential project "Hyde Park" in Hong Kong's Eastern District recorded a significant transaction activity, indicating strong demand in the local real estate market [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - On February 8, "Hyde Park" achieved sales of 9 units in a single day, including a notable transaction where a large buyer purchased two units [1] - The sold units are two-bedroom open kitchen apartments with a usable area of 538 square feet, priced between 8.42 million to 8.941 million HKD after discounts [1] - The price per square foot for these units ranged from 15,651 to 16,619 HKD [1] Group 2: Cumulative Sales Performance - As of February 8, "Hyde Park" has recorded a total of 121 transactions, with a cumulative sales amount exceeding 1 billion HKD [1]