Core Insights - Swire Properties announced significant progress in the renovation and upgrade of Sanlitun Taikoo Li, aiming to establish it as a globally recognized fashion and cultural destination [1] - The renovation focuses on experiential retail, integrating local cultural elements with global lifestyle trends, providing a dynamic platform for both international and local brands [1] Group 1: Renovation Progress - The North District renovation has been completed over three years since its initiation in 2022, with nearly half of the commercial space revamped and an optimized brand lineup [3] - High-end flagship stores from international brands such as Dior, Hermès, Louis Vuitton, and Tiffany & Co. have opened, all designed by top architects [3] - The foot traffic at Sanlitun Taikoo Li has significantly increased since the opening of multiple flagship stores in December 2025 [3] Group 2: Brand and Service Enhancements - The brand mix emphasizes diversity and functional integration, featuring China's first Dior restaurant and the first Le Café Louis Vuitton in Beijing, along with a planned Hermès store set to open in Spring 2026 [4] - A variety of luxury brands, including Alaïa, Balenciaga, Burberry, and Rolex, have established flagship stores, creating a multi-layered high-quality brand cluster [4] - Service enhancements include the establishment of high-quality VIP lounges, an upgraded membership system, improved drop-off areas, and a revitalized sunken garden for cultural and community activities [5] Group 3: Future Developments - The renovation journey continues with plans for the redevelopment of the North District N1 floor and further community building and public space quality improvements [5] - The project aims to deepen the integration of international avant-garde art, fashion, and culture, reinforcing its status as a future urban landmark and contributing to Beijing's development as a world-class city [5]

首选股方面，收租股(商场/写字楼类)偏好恒隆地产(00101)及太古地产(01972)。发展商偏好信和置业 (00083)。同时亦看好置地公司，但建议等待更佳的入市时机。 摩根大通发布研报称，香港地产股业绩期将于1月底展开。虽然该行预期大部分公司的盈利仍将持续下 行，香港住宅市场改善对2025财年报表的影响有限，但该行认为即将公布的业绩或将成为大多数公司的 低位，下一财政年度盈利很大机会反弹。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that while the earnings of most Hong Kong real estate stocks are expected to continue declining, the upcoming earnings announcements may represent a low point for many companies, with a significant chance of earnings rebound in the next fiscal year [1] Group 1: Earnings Outlook - The earnings season for Hong Kong real estate stocks is set to begin at the end of January [1] - The impact of the improvement in the Hong Kong residential market on the fiscal year 2025 financial statements is expected to be limited [1] - Most companies are anticipated to report continued earnings decline [1] Group 2: Preferred Stocks - For rental stocks (shopping malls/office buildings), the preferred choices are Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972) [1] - For developers, the preferred stock is Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - The report also expresses a positive outlook on the Land Development Company but suggests waiting for a better entry point [1]

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -3.3% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices changed by -0.6% and +0.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.7% and -3.8%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 26th in performance[46] New Housing Market - New home sales increased by 0.6% week-on-week but decreased by 36.8% year-on-year during the period from January 10 to January 16, 2026[8] - In major cities, new home transaction areas changed as follows: Beijing +16.3%, Shanghai +1.9%, Guangzhou +18.8%, and Shenzhen -0.6%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 162.3 million square meters, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year[14] - Cumulative transactions from January 1 to January 16, 2026, totaled 331.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%[14] Inventory and Absorption - Cumulative new home inventory in 13 cities reached 77.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week change of -0.1% and a year-on-year change of -4.7%[21] - The absorption cycle for new homes in 13 cities is 23.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6 months[21] Land Market - Land transaction area from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 11.746 million square meters, down 21.9% week-on-week and down 49.7% year-on-year[38] - The average land price was 700 RMB/square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 44.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.1%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include: A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include: Property management: Greentown Service; Commercial management: China Resources Mixc Life; Leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of real estate regulatory policy relaxation, continued industry downturn, and persistent credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has priced in the stable recovery of the Hong Kong property market over the next two years, as several Hong Kong real estate stocks have reached or are close to historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The potential upside for rental stocks is greater, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most stock prices still over 30% lower than their peaks [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - The preferred stocks are Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties, due to the continuous improvement in their retail businesses in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development could become a dark horse if management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, the preference is for Sino Land and Henderson Land, but the overall recommendation is to wait for a better entry point [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [3][4][21]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2% in total real estate development investment for 2025, and a significant drop of 35.8% in December alone [4][21]. - The sales side shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% for 2025, and a 15.6% drop in December [22][32]. - The funding side indicates a continued decline in funding sources, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in total funding for real estate development in 2025, and a sharp 26.7% drop in December [37]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - Total real estate development investment for 2025 reached 828.8 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with December's investment declining by 35.8% [4][21]. - New construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 19.4% decline [20][21]. - The report adjusts 2026 forecasts, predicting a 7.7% decline in new construction and a 9.1% drop in investment [21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December's sales area declining by 15.6% [22][32]. - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year decrease, with December's sales revenue down 23.6% [24][32]. - The average selling price of commercial housing for 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 4.3% year-on-year [31][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 9.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year, with December's funding sources down 26.7% [37]. - Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with a significant drop of 45% in December [37]. - The report anticipates that funding sources will gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [37].

该行上调太古地产2026年经常性基本溢利预测11%至79.9亿元，意味同比增长30%，以反映深水湾道6号 销售结算带来的影响；引入2027年经常性基本溢利预测71.2亿元，同比跌11%，其下降主要反映审慎的 开发物业结算估计，而其中物业投资部分预计随存量项目自然增长和新项目开业而实现增长。 该行预计在稳健经营的背景下，太古地产将坚定兑现派息承诺，预测全年累计每股股息为1.15港元，对 应5%股息收益率。 中金发布研报称，预测太古地产(01972)2025年股东应占和经常性基本溢利分别同比增长21%和下降 5%。该行认为相较于2025年上半年，下半年公司核心资产的整体经营情况呈现稳中向好的态势，同时 资本循环计划执行速度超出预期。该行维持予其"跑赢行业"评级及目标价26.5港元。 ...

该行上调太古地产2026年经常性基本溢利预测11%至79.9亿元，意味同比增长30%，以反映深水湾道6号 销售结算带来的影响；引入2027年经常性基本溢利预测71.2亿元，同比跌11%，其下降主要反映审慎的 开发物业结算估计，而其中物业投资部分预计随存量项目自然增长和新项目开业而实现增长。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，预测太古地产(01972)2025年股东应占和经常性基本溢利分别同比 增长21%和下降5%。该行认为相较于2025年上半年，下半年公司核心资产的整体经营情况呈现稳中向 好的态势，同时资本循环计划执行速度超出预期。该行维持予其"跑赢行业"评级及目标价26.5港元。 该行预计在稳健经营的背景下，太古地产将坚定兑现派息承诺，预测全年累计每股股息为1.15港元，对 应5%股息收益率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from JPMorgan indicates that several brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, contributing to an 11% rise in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The market appears to have priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - There is greater potential upside for rental stocks, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below peak levels [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - JPMorgan's top picks include Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could emerge as a dark horse if management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, the preference is for Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but the overall recommendation is to wait for better entry points [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that multiple brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, which has contributed to an 11% rise in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has already priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - The firm suggests that rental stocks have greater potential for upside, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below their peaks [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's top picks for rental stocks are Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could become a dark horse if its management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley prefers Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but generally advises waiting for a better entry point [1]