Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious outlook due to ongoing challenges in the market [2] Core Insights - The real estate index increased by 0.6% in the ninth week of 2026, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry sectors [9][11] - New home sales in 20 monitored cities decreased by 44% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales in 11 cities also saw a significant decline of 48% year-on-year [21][26] - The report highlights various local government policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and increased loan limits for first-time buyers [14][18] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,243.4 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 1,191.5 billion yuan [2] Policy News - Shanghai has implemented new policies to relax housing purchase restrictions for non-local residents, including reduced social insurance or tax payment requirements [14][17] - In Huai'an, measures include subsidies for new home purchases and support for families with multiple children [16][19] Sales Performance - In the ninth week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 19.1 million square meters, with total sales reaching 134 million square meters, reflecting a 1013% increase week-on-week but a 44% decrease year-on-year [21][23] - For second-hand homes, the average daily transaction area was 17.7 million square meters, with total sales of 124 million square meters, showing an 8547% increase week-on-week but a 48% decrease year-on-year [26][27] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: precision in land acquisition for developers, investment in leading shopping centers, and monitoring leading real estate agencies for efficiency improvements [6][21]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年2月28日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | Swire Properties Limited 太古地產有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年3月2日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | | 備註： | | | | Swire Properties Limited 太古地產有限公司（「公司」）並無法定股本，及其股本並無股份面值。 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 第 3 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 (B). 承諾發行發行人股份的權證 不適用 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][28]. Core Insights - The report indicates that after a deep adjustment in the real estate sector, the industry fundamentals are approaching a bottom, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][28]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new home transactions, with a week-on-week increase of 334.6% in 34 key cities, indicating a recovery trend [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies and commercial properties, suggesting that they will recover profitability sooner and with more elasticity due to improved industry dynamics [2][28]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][11]. - The transaction volume for first-tier cities was 950,000 square meters, up 315.9% week-on-week, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a staggering increase of 626.2% [3][11]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11]. - However, the cumulative transaction volume for February showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 key cities launched 120,000 square meters of new supply, with total sales of 380,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 3.1 times [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remained unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [28][29]. - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy was introduced to optimize the local real estate market, including reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing the maximum public housing fund loan amount for first-time buyers [28][29]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued $355 million in senior unsecured bonds with a maturity of 3 years and a coupon rate of 11.8% [36]. - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by only 0.6% compared to a 1.08% increase in the CSI 300 Index [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The report from JPMorgan indicates surprise over the increase in stamp duty rates for properties valued over 100 million, but the bank is not overly concerned as it will only affect 0.3% of transactions [1] Group 1: Stamp Duty Impact - The increase in stamp duty (2.25%) is expected to have a minimal impact on ultra-wealthy buyers, as property prices may rise enough to offset this cost within a month or two [1] - In 2025, there were only 169 transactions valued over 100 million, highlighting the limited scope of the tax increase [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The policy is viewed as a redistribution fiscal measure aimed at taxing the ultra-wealthy to subsidize low-income groups, rather than suppressing the real estate market [1] - The announcement may trigger a stronger "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among buyers of properties priced between 50 million and 99.9 million, who may worry about future tax increases [1] Group 3: Developer Recommendations - The most favored developers currently include Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Henderson Land Development (00012), and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - Recommended rental stocks include Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the increase in stamp duty for properties valued over HKD 100 million in the Hong Kong government's 2026/27 budget is surprising but not concerning, as it will only affect 0.3% of transactions [1] - The report indicates that in 2025, there were only 169 transactions exceeding HKD 100 million, suggesting that the impact on the market will be minimal [1] - The additional cost of 2.25% for ultra-wealthy buyers is considered negligible, as property prices could rise enough in a month or two to offset this cost [1] Group 2 - The policy is viewed not as a measure to suppress the real estate market but rather as a redistribution fiscal policy aimed at taxing the ultra-wealthy to subsidize low-income groups [1] - The report suggests that this policy may actually trigger a stronger "fear of missing out" (FOMO) sentiment among buyers of properties priced between HKD 50 million and HKD 99 million, who may worry about future higher stamp duties [1] - Following the announcement, the real estate sector experienced a pullback of 1% to 2%, which the report interprets as a profit-taking excuse after strong performance year-to-date [1] Group 3 - The report identifies the most favored developers as Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land [1] - Rental stocks highlighted include Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties [1]

Group 1 - The high-end consumption market is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery, with strong momentum in the Greater China region [1][2] - From the second half of 2025, major luxury goods groups are expected to see significant improvement in sales growth in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), with LVMH and Richemont experiencing their first positive growth after seven consecutive quarters [1] - The improvement in the Chinese market is a key variable for the performance recovery of global luxury goods groups, with major brands optimistic about the long-term potential of the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - The retail sales growth of high-end shopping malls in China has significantly increased in the second half of the year, with retail sales of tenants in Hang Lung Properties' mainland malls expected to grow by 4% year-on-year in 2025 [1] - Swire Properties' malls have also seen a notable acceleration, with the Shanghai Xinyi Swire City benefiting from the iconic project "Louis" leading to a 49.6% increase in retail sales [1] - The wealth effect is driving a rebound in high-end consumption demand, with high-frequency indicators such as the growth of wealthy individuals' assets, duty-free data from Hainan, and Macau gaming data confirming this recovery [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ownership of Yuno China has officially changed hands, with IDG Capital acquiring operational control from Tiantu Investment for approximately 1.8 billion RMB (around 259 million USD) [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - Tiantu Investment sold its entire stake in Yuno China, receiving about 1.57 billion RMB (approximately 226 million USD) [1] - The sale marks the third ownership change for Yuno China in eight years, with Tiantu having previously acquired it from General Mills for nearly 300 million RMB [2][3] - Tiantu Investment's exit is primarily driven by the need to fulfill fund exit obligations, as their managed fund has entered an exit phase [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Yuno China's revenue for 2023 was 454 million RMB, with a net profit of 8.39 million RMB, and is projected to grow to 810 million RMB in revenue and 95.45 million RMB in net profit in the following year, representing increases of 78% and 1038% respectively [2] - Tiantu Investment made a net profit of 516 million RMB from the acquisition and sale of Yuno China over six years [3] Group 3: Market Challenges - The high-end low-temperature yogurt market is facing challenges, with a notable decline in dairy sales; a 2.7% drop in sales was reported for 2024, and a 16.8% decline in the overall dairy market by September 2025 [6] - Competitors are aggressively lowering prices, with significant discounts observed in the market, impacting Yuno's pricing strategy [5] - Yuno faces stiff competition from established brands like Yili and Mengniu, as well as regional players, which complicates its market position [7][8] Group 4: Future Prospects - IDG Capital plans to leverage its resources to support Yuno's expansion into southern and northern China, as well as diversify sales channels [9] - There is potential for collaboration with other brands in IDG Capital's portfolio, such as Luckin Coffee and Heytea, to enhance Yuno's market presence [9]

Core Insights - The retail commercial property market in 2025 is undergoing a profound structural adjustment due to macroeconomic headwinds and changing consumer habits, leading to varied survival scenarios among companies with different backgrounds and strategies [3][30] Group 1: Hong Kong Property Companies - Sun Hung Kai Properties remains the "rental king," recording net rental income of HKD 18.392 billion for the fiscal year 2025, demonstrating strong resilience [4][31] - The company maintains a high mall occupancy rate of 95% in Hong Kong by introducing popular mainland brands and optimizing public spaces [4][31] - Swire Properties reported a 20% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, with retail sales in mainland China up 70% compared to 2019, but faced significant market differentiation [7][34] - Hang Lung Properties experienced mixed results, with overall income stable but significant city-level disparities, prompting a shift to more refined operational strategies [9][36] - Link REIT adopts a pragmatic approach to stabilize its operations amid structural changes in consumer behavior, enhancing its asset portfolio in Hong Kong and mainland China [11][38] - Kerry Properties shows financial discipline with a 22% drop in net profit but maintains a controlled debt ratio of 40% [13][40] - Shui On Land's resilience heavily relies on its Shanghai projects, which contribute 78% of rental income, highlighting the challenges in its national expansion [16][43] Group 2: Mainland Property Companies - Longfor Properties is focusing on revitalizing older projects, reducing interest-bearing debt by HKD 60 billion over three and a half years, and achieving a historical low financing cost of 3.58% [20][45] - China Resources' commercial segment reported a revenue of CNY 3.267 billion, a 14.6% increase, with a gross margin of 66.1% [21][48] - The average opening rate of new projects in the first half of 2025 exceeded 91%, with significant retail sales growth from third-party managed projects [22][49] Group 3: Regional Leaders - Hisense Plaza in Qingdao has maintained its status as Shandong's top luxury venue for 28 years, achieving annual sales exceeding CNY 6 billion [26][51] - Lihua Group represents a different path in regional commerce with its "department store + supermarket" model, facing challenges in national expansion and declining performance since 2019 [28][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that new home sales during the Spring Festival period saw a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a total of 9.3 million square meters sold across 16 major cities [3][13]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, driven by recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks [3]. - The report emphasizes that the fundamental bottom of the real estate sector is approaching, with expectations for quality companies to recover profits more quickly and flexibly [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities during the week before the Spring Festival totaled 192.3 million square meters, a decrease of 1.1% week-on-week, but an increase of 56.6% compared to the average weekly sales this year [4]. - In February, new home sales in 34 cities increased by 88.5% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing a 96.8% increase [9]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities was reported at 8,870.4 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [54]. 2. Policy News - The report notes that the government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with various local policies being introduced to optimize housing supply and manage existing stock [3]. - Specific measures include the promotion of REITs in commercial real estate, with 12 applications submitted recently [3]. 3. Company Dynamics - Sales data for major real estate companies in January showed mixed results, with China Jinmao reporting a 13.6% increase in sales, while other companies like Poly Developments saw a 13.3% decrease [3]. - The report highlights the performance of the property management sector, which has shown resilience compared to the broader market [3]. 4. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.69%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 0.36% [3]. - The report suggests that the current valuation levels for quality real estate companies are at historical lows, making them attractive for investment [3].

Core Viewpoint - DBS has set a target price of HKD 30.38 for Swire Properties (01972) and rated it as "Buy" due to the anticipated launch of new retail complexes in Beijing, Shanghai, Sanya, and Xi'an starting this year, which are expected to be significant catalysts for medium to long-term profit and dividend growth, driving the stock price upward [1][5]. Group 1 - The new retail complexes are projected to contribute to Swire Properties' medium to long-term profit and dividend growth, serving as important catalysts for stock price appreciation [1][5]. - Following a recent increase in stock price, Swire Properties is currently trading at a 50% discount to its net asset value (NAV), indicating potential for long-term price appreciation [1][5]. - Swire Properties has a track record of creating long-term value through the development and management of property complexes [1][5]. Group 2 - The report indicates signs of improvement in Swire Properties' core operations, with stable performance in the office portfolio at Pacific Place, complemented by improved sales momentum from retail tenants in Hong Kong and mainland China, which is expected to support stable rental income [1][5]. - The company announced the sale of two luxury houses at 6 Deep Water Bay Road for HKD 2.2 billion, equivalent to HKD 147,000 per square foot, with the transaction expected to be completed in the first quarter of this year, likely contributing significant profits to support net profit performance [1][5].