Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that multiple brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, which has led to an 11% increase in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has already priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - The firm suggests that rental stocks have greater potential for upside, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below their peaks [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's top picks include Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could become a dark horse if its management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley prefers Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but generally advises waiting for a better entry point [1]

资本循环计划顺利推进，资产负债表维持稳健。公司于1H25 完成迈阿密商场、车位及邻近商场空置地 块的处置，2H25 则继续成功处置太古城车位等非核心资产，同时考虑港岛东中心交付，我们预计全年 物业处置有望贡献约20 亿港币利润。顺利的资产处置支持公司在持续的资本开支之下仍维持相对稳定 的杠杆水平和利息费用（1H25 净负债率15.7%）。 盈利预测与估值 业绩料持续稳中向好，支持中长期派息政策延续。我们维持2025 年经常性基本溢利预测61.7 亿港元 （同比-5%）、上调基本溢利12%至81.7 亿元以反映下半年超预期的资产处置进度；上调2026 年经常性 基本溢利预测11%至79.9 亿港元（同比+30%），以反映深水湾道6 号销售结算带来的影响；引入2027年 经常性基本溢利预测71.2 亿港元（同比-11%），其下降主要反映审慎的开发物业结算估计，而其中物 业投资部分预计随存量项目自然增长和新项目开业而实现增长。派息方面，我们认为公司将维持"目标 每年股息以中单位数幅度增长"的长期政策，预计2025 年股息收益率5.0%。维持跑赢行业评级及26.5 港 元目标价，对应4.3%/4.5%2025-26 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report is that the Hong Kong residential market is expected to bottom out by mid-2025, with a recovery anticipated to strengthen in 2026, extending to the CBD office and high-end retail sectors [1] - The report forecasts a 5% to 10% increase in Hong Kong residential prices in 2026, followed by a further 5% increase in 2027 [1] - The valuation of the sector is believed to have normalized, leading to a more moderate price increase outlook [1] Group 2 - The company has raised target prices for several stocks by an average of 8% to reflect a stronger outlook for residential prices and a 50 basis point reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] - The report highlights a positive outlook for "buy" ratings on Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101), while reiterating a "underperform" rating for MTR Corporation (00066) due to its large capital expenditure plans [1] - The report identifies potential catalysts for Hang Lung Properties, Henderson Land (00012), and Wharf Real Estate Investment (01997) in the first quarter [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that developers have already factored in a 5% to 10% increase in residential prices when comparing current residential prices and stock prices to 2021 [1] - Hang Lung Properties is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and increase share buybacks by at least $200 million [1] - There is a divergence of opinions among investors regarding whether Henderson Land will cut dividends for the fiscal year 2025, which may lead to stock price volatility after earnings announcements [1] Group 4 - The report indicates that the rebound in earnings will be key for further revaluation of the sector, with Henderson Land expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record a significant earnings rebound for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Cheung Kong Holdings and Kerry Properties (00683) are projected to lead the earnings rebound for developers from 2025 to 2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are expected to lead earnings growth for owners during the same period [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America forecasts that the Hong Kong residential market will bottom out in mid-2025, with a recovery expected to strengthen in 2026, extending to CBD office and high-end retail sectors [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Residential prices in Hong Kong are expected to rise by 5% to 10% in 2026 and by 5% in 2027 [1] - The bank believes that sector valuations have normalized, anticipating a moderate increase in prices [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The bank has raised target prices for several companies by an average of 8% to reflect stronger residential price outlook and a 50 basis point reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The bank maintains a "buy" rating for Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101) [1] - MTR Corporation (00066) is reiterated with an "underperform" rating due to low likelihood of significant dividend increases amid large capital expenditure plans [1] Group 4: Potential Catalysts - Hang Lung Properties is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and plans to increase share buybacks by at least $200 million [1] - There is a divergence of opinions among investors regarding whether Henderson Land Development (00012) will cut dividends for the fiscal year 2025, which may lead to stock price volatility post-earnings announcement [1] - Wharf Holdings (01997) is projected to see a 7% increase in dividends for the fiscal year 2025, supported by a decline in HIBOR and rising excess rents [1] Group 5: Earnings Recovery - The bank believes that earnings recovery will be key for further revaluation of the sector, with Henderson Land Development expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record significant earnings rebound in fiscal year 2026 [2] - Cheung Kong Holdings and Kerry Properties (00683) are anticipated to lead the earnings rebound for developers from fiscal years 2025 to 2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are expected to lead earnings growth for owners during the same period [2]

Group 1 - The core view is that the Hong Kong residential market is expected to bottom out in mid-2025, with a recovery anticipated to strengthen in 2026, extending to CBD offices and high-end retail sectors [1] - Residential prices in Hong Kong are projected to rise by 5% to 10% in 2026 and by an additional 5% in 2027 [1] - The valuation of the sector has normalized, leading to a moderate expected increase in prices, with an average target price increase of 8% reflecting stronger residential price outlook and a 50 basis points reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] Group 2 - The company is optimistic about the potential for profit rebound driven by market recovery over the next three years, particularly favoring "buy" ratings for Cheung Kong Property (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101) [1] - The company maintains a "underperform" rating for MTR Corporation (00066) due to low likelihood of significant dividend increases amid substantial capital expenditure plans [1] - Key stocks with potential catalysts in Q1 include Hang Lung Properties, which is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and increase share buybacks by at least $200 million, and Kowloon Development (01997), which is projected to see a 7% dividend growth in FY2025 supported by declining HIBOR and rising excess rents [1][2] Group 3 - The company believes that profit rebound will be crucial for further revaluation of the sector, with Hang Chi Properties expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record significant profit rebound in FY2026 [2] - Overall, Cheung Kong and Kerry Properties (00683) are expected to lead the profit rebound for developers from FY2025 to FY2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are anticipated to lead profit growth for owners during the same period [2]

加强全面对接携手开启合作新篇章 1月14日上午，广州市市长孙志洋会见太古地产行政总裁彭国邦一行。 孙志洋对太古地产为广州经济社会发展作出贡献表示感谢。他说，当前，广州正按照国家战略部署，全 力扩大内需，推动消费供给提质升级，高质量推进城市更新和城中村改造，着力打造更加宜居宜业、更 高品质品位的国际大都市。太古地产是全球商业地产领域的知名公司，发展理念、核心业务同广州城市 功能定位相契合。站在"十五五"新起点上，期待与太古地产在既有良好合作基础上，进一步加强全面对 接，携手开启合作新篇章。希望太古地产发挥品牌效应和高水平开发经验优势，持续深化与广州在商业 地产开发、城市更新改造、消费场景培育等领域的合作，共同打造更多标志性项目，助力广州国际消费 中心城市建设。广州将一如既往做好企业服务，携手企业共创美好未来。 彭国邦感谢广州长期以来对太古地产发展给予的支持。他表示，太古地产与广州合作渊源深厚，坚定看 好广州未来发展潜力，将持续加强投资布局，创造多元生活体验，引入更多优质国际品牌和独特体验型 项目，为广州城市繁荣和品质提升贡献更大力量。 太古地产中国内地行政总裁戴可为参加。 相关附件 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate sector index increased by 5.1% in the second week of January 2026, ranking 11th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] - New housing transactions in 20 monitored cities saw a 37% year-on-year decrease, while the average daily transaction volume increased by 104% week-on-week [22][27] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [34][35] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 12,626.37 billion [2] Policy News - In Shenyang, new policies were implemented to optimize housing fund loans, including extending the minimum down payment policy to December 31, 2026, and increasing the loan limit for new citizens and youth [18][19] - Shanghai emphasized creating a fair market competition environment through new regulations [18][19] Sales Data - In the second week, the average daily transaction volume for new homes in 20 cities was 21.8 million square meters, with total transactions of 153 million square meters [26][27] - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes in 11 cities was 30.3 million square meters, with total transactions of 212 million square meters [27][32] Financing - The report notes that most companies issuing bonds this week are local state-owned enterprises, with New Hope Real Estate issuing the largest amount of 8.8 billion [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies [34][35]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently facing significant challenges, with a decline in GDP contribution from the real estate and construction sectors, dropping from 15% in 2019 to 12% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7] - The shift in housing demand from "having a house" to "having a good house" indicates a structural change in the market, with a projected annual housing demand of over 860 million square meters until 2035, primarily driven by improvement needs [7] - The report emphasizes the need for policy adjustments to address the ongoing market downturn, with potential policy directions including administrative, public fund, fiscal, urban renewal, and stock activation measures [7][9] Macro Perspective - The economy is undergoing a transformation, with a noticeable decline in the contribution of the real estate sector to GDP [7] - The population peaked in 2021 and has been declining, affecting housing demand dynamics, particularly among potential first-time buyers [7] - Employment and income expectations remain weak, impacting consumer willingness to purchase homes [7] Mid-Macro Perspective - Market transaction volumes and prices are continuously declining, with new home transactions in 100 cities down 15% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [7] - The frequency and effectiveness of local policy interventions have decreased, leading to rising inventory levels and prolonged de-stocking periods [7] - Real estate companies are experiencing significant financial strain, with funding levels dropping from 20.1 trillion yuan in 2021 to 10.8 trillion yuan in 2024 [7] Micro Perspective - Home prices in first-tier cities have seen significant declines, with second-hand home prices dropping over 35% from their peak [7] - The expectation of falling home prices is growing among residents, with 23.5% anticipating further declines as of Q3 2025 [7] - The market is witnessing a shift towards improvement-type housing, with larger units (over 120 square meters) gaining market share [7] Policy Space - Future policy adjustments are expected to focus on loosening purchase restrictions in major cities and enhancing public fund policies [9] - Fiscal measures may include subsidies for home loans and adjustments to tax policies related to property transactions [9] - Urban renewal initiatives are anticipated to expand, particularly in transforming urban villages [9] Opportunities in the Real Estate Sector - The commercial real estate sector is poised for growth by adapting to new consumer demands and creating innovative shopping experiences [9] - Residential developers focusing on core cities and high-demand housing types are likely to benefit from market shifts [9] - The report highlights the potential for real estate investment trusts (REITs) to expand, particularly in commercial properties, as the market matures [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, such as China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou [9] - Smaller, agile firms that have made significant sales and land acquisition strides since 2024 are also recommended for consideration [9] - Companies innovating in the commercial real estate space, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

南方财经记者郭晓洁 实习生王泽楠 广州报道 随着绿色金融市场的快速发展，相关的资讯和数据变得越来越丰富。绿色金融周报从宏观视角和机构绿 色金融实践等角度，关注绿色金融领域的最新前沿动态，追踪绿色金融市场的最新趋势，为绿色金融相 关参与方提供决策依据和参考。 一、重点关注 1.数字人民币App上线碳普惠服务，丰富数字人民币绿色金融场景 在贴息政策方面，结合区域发展水平实行差异化贴息，对苏南、苏中、苏北设置不同条件，并将贴息比 例从1%提高至1.5%，资金采取先预拨后清算方式，实现"免申即享、直达快享"，且政策效力追溯至 2025年1月1日。 在融资保障方面，"环基贷"可与"环保贷""环保担"叠加使用，通过风险补偿基金或担保补偿资金分担风 险；同时简化申报流程，企业可直接向合作银行申请，优质项目可通过省绿色金融平台定向推送，以提 升贷款发放效率。此外，人民银行江苏省分行将定期监测通报业务情况，推动金融资源倾斜。 21碳中和课题组快评：此次江苏"环基贷"政策优化升级，从"范围扩大、贴息提升、流程简化"等维度精 准发力，体现了地方政府在绿色金融政策设计上的务实与灵活。将企业设备更新与技改项目纳入支持， 并取消融资规模 ...

Group 1 - The top three stocks with net inflows are Yingfu Fund (02800) with 6.826 billion, Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with 2.151 billion, and Kuaishou-W (01024) with 1.553 billion [1] - The top three stocks with net outflows are Tencent Holdings (00700) with -0.920 billion, China Mobile (00941) with -0.365 billion, and China Hongqiao (01378) with -0.257 billion [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway (00177) leads with 68.66%, followed by COSCO Shipping Ports (01199) with 62.64%, and Beijing Enterprises Water Group (00371) with 62.27% [1] Group 2 - The top ten stocks by net inflow include Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 1.020 billion and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) with 0.944 billion [2] - The top ten stocks by net outflow also include China People's Insurance Group (01339) with -0.255 billion and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) with -0.213 billion [2] - The net outflow ratio for China National Building Material (03323) is -48.46%, followed by Gao Xin Retail (06808) at -48.27% and Swire Properties (01972) at -47.79% [3]