智通财经APP获悉，摩通发布研报称，在2026/27年度《财政预算案》中，对价值超过1亿元的房产印花 税率上调感到惊讶。虽然标题看起来是负面，但该行表示，并不太担心，因为这只会影响0.3%的交 易，根据2025年价值超过1亿元交易仅有169笔；从超级富豪购房者角度来看，新增成本(2.25%)可能微 不足道，主要是房价上涨一两个月即可复盖这部分成本；这项政策的目标并非打压房地产市场，而更似 是一项再分配的财政政策，透过向超级富豪征税以补贴低收入群体。 该信息由智通财经网提供 该行指，事实上，这甚至可能引发更强烈的"害怕错过"(FOMO)情绪，尤其是那些购买价值在5,000万至 9,900万元之间的房产的买家，可能会担心未来需要支付更高的印花税。该行表示，在消息公布后，该 板块回调1%至2%，又认为，这更像是年初至今强劲表现后盈利套现的借口。 该行指，目前最看好的开发商包括新鸿基地产(00016) 、恒基地产(00012)和信和置业(00083)；收租股包 括恒隆地产(00101)和太古地产(01972)。 ...

该行指，事实上，这甚至可能引发更强烈的"害怕错过"(FOMO)情绪，尤其是那些购买价值在5000万至 9900万港元之间的房产的买家，可能会担心未来需要支付更高的印花税。在消息公布后，该板块回调 1%至2%，该行认为这更象是年初至今强劲表现后盈利套现的借口。该行指，目前最看好的开发商包括 新地、恒地和信置；收租股包括恒隆地产和太古地产。 摩根大通发表研报指，在港府2026/27年度《财政预算案》中，对价值超过1亿港元的房产印花税率上调 感到惊讶。虽然标题看起来是负面，但该行表示并不太担心，因为这只会影响0.3%的交易，根据2025 年价值超过1亿港元交易仅有169笔；从超级富豪购房者角度来看，新增成本(2.25%)可能微不足道，主 要是房价上涨一两个月即可覆盖这部分成本；这项政策的目标并非打压房地产市场，而更似是一项再分 配的财政政策，透过向超级富豪征税以补贴低收入群体。 ...

2025年下半年起，主要奢侈品集团在亚太区(剔除日本)的销售增速显著改善，LVMH、历峰等集团增速 在连续7个季度后首次转正。中国区市场的改善已成为全球奢侈品集团业绩修复的关键变量，各大品牌 普遍看好中国市场的长期潜力。国内高端商场零售额增速亦在下半年显著提升。2025年恒隆地产内地商 场租户零售额同比增长4%，日均客流量创历史新高;太古地产旗下多数商场在下半年显著提速，其中上 海兴业太古汇凭借标志性项目"路易号"拉动，零售额大增49.6%。 财富效应驱动高端消费需求回升，高频指标印证修复 富人资产增速、海南离岛免税数据、澳门博彩业数据、高档酒店数据等可做高端消费高频跟踪;二奢数 据反映大众人群需求，与高端消费同向变动;奢侈品公司季度业绩表现、高端商圈(恒隆、太古等)零售额 增速可做为高端消费情况后验指标。其中富人资产增速(t-1期)对奢侈品业绩具有领先预测价值，随着股 市及投资收益改善，高净值人群消费意愿已实质性回暖，可在瑞士钟表对华出口转正、澳门博彩毛收入 逐季加速复苏以及高端酒店RevPAR的增长中得到印证。 风险提示 宏观经济与消费信心波动风险、政策与监管环境变化风险、行业竞争与替代分流风险。 华福证 ...

随着公告发布，意味着IDG资本已获得优诺中国业务的运营权，也标志着优诺中国八年三易主的故事翻 开新篇章。 再次易主 2019年，天图投资从通用磨坊手中，以近3亿元收购优诺中国，成为其首个全球品牌中国业务控股型并 购项目。 彼时，天图押注中国乳制品消费升级，将优诺定位"中高端酸奶标杆"，通过战略调整、渠道扩张和管理 赋能，将其从亏损边缘拉回盈利轨道。 数据显示，2023年，优诺中国营收为4.54亿元，净利润839万元，次年，公司营收跃升至8.1亿元，净利 润达9545万元，较2023年分别增长78%和1038%。 然而，天图却选择在业绩巅峰期退出。 天图投资解释称，首要因素是履行基金退出义务。 （作者｜周琦 编辑｜张广凯） 法国贵族酸奶正式完成易主。 2月24日，天图投资公告，已向昆山诺源睿源出售所持有的优诺中国全部股权，IDG资本作为买方的投 资者将获得优诺中国的运营控制权。 该交易总对价约为18亿元人民币（约合2.59亿美元），其中天图投资及其联属方获得总对价约为15.7亿 元人民币（约合2.26亿美元）。 一方面，是现制酸奶放低身价。 2025年年底，Blueglass断崖式降价。原价49元的"小蛮腰"系 ...

丙午马年 20 / 26 2025年的零售商业物业市场，正经历一场深刻的结构性调整。在宏观经济逆风与消费习惯变迁的双重压力下，不同背景、不同战略的企业呈现出截然不同 的生存图景。 本篇将梳理年内重要企业研究报道，从港资巨头的守成与求变，到内地企业的稳健与突围，再到区域标杆的坚守与徘徊，试图勾勒出这一年行业的整体样 貌。 港资房企： 巨头的守成与求变 "收租王"新鸿基抗逆有方 在港资房企阵营中，新鸿基地产依然稳坐"收租王"之位。2025财年，新鸿基连同合营企业及联营公司录得净租金收入达183.92亿港元，展现出极强的抗风 险能力。 "收租王"新鸿基，塌不了 太古地产直面分化 太古地产2025上半年营收同比增长20%，内地零售销售额已较2019年同期高出70%，香港商场则维持满租。 然而，市场分化显著。上海兴业太古汇通过引入路易威登地标"路易号"实现13.5%的销售额暴涨，而广州太古汇则因下跌2.1%。面对挑战，太古正加速战 略调整：斥资21亿扩容广州太古汇至18万㎡，同时以15万㎡的聚龙湾太古里差异化布局"滨水潮流轻奢"，与重奢项目形成互补。 太古，闪回2019 面对市场变化，新鸿基通过灵活运营稳固根基。在香港 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that new home sales during the Spring Festival period saw a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a total of 9.3 million square meters sold across 16 major cities [3][13]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, driven by recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks [3]. - The report emphasizes that the fundamental bottom of the real estate sector is approaching, with expectations for quality companies to recover profits more quickly and flexibly [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities during the week before the Spring Festival totaled 192.3 million square meters, a decrease of 1.1% week-on-week, but an increase of 56.6% compared to the average weekly sales this year [4]. - In February, new home sales in 34 cities increased by 88.5% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing a 96.8% increase [9]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities was reported at 8,870.4 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [54]. 2. Policy News - The report notes that the government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with various local policies being introduced to optimize housing supply and manage existing stock [3]. - Specific measures include the promotion of REITs in commercial real estate, with 12 applications submitted recently [3]. 3. Company Dynamics - Sales data for major real estate companies in January showed mixed results, with China Jinmao reporting a 13.6% increase in sales, while other companies like Poly Developments saw a 13.3% decrease [3]. - The report highlights the performance of the property management sector, which has shown resilience compared to the broader market [3]. 4. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.69%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 0.36% [3]. - The report suggests that the current valuation levels for quality real estate companies are at historical lows, making them attractive for investment [3].

Core Viewpoint - DBS has set a target price of HKD 30.38 for Swire Properties (01972) and rated it as "Buy" due to the anticipated launch of new retail complexes in Beijing, Shanghai, Sanya, and Xi'an starting this year, which are expected to be significant catalysts for medium to long-term profit and dividend growth, driving the stock price upward [1][5]. Group 1 - The new retail complexes are projected to contribute to Swire Properties' medium to long-term profit and dividend growth, serving as important catalysts for stock price appreciation [1][5]. - Following a recent increase in stock price, Swire Properties is currently trading at a 50% discount to its net asset value (NAV), indicating potential for long-term price appreciation [1][5]. - Swire Properties has a track record of creating long-term value through the development and management of property complexes [1][5]. Group 2 - The report indicates signs of improvement in Swire Properties' core operations, with stable performance in the office portfolio at Pacific Place, complemented by improved sales momentum from retail tenants in Hong Kong and mainland China, which is expected to support stable rental income [1][5]. - The company announced the sale of two luxury houses at 6 Deep Water Bay Road for HKD 2.2 billion, equivalent to HKD 147,000 per square foot, with the transaction expected to be completed in the first quarter of this year, likely contributing significant profits to support net profit performance [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - DBS has set a target price of HKD 30.38 for Swire Properties (01972) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the potential for significant stock price appreciation driven by new retail complexes in Beijing, Shanghai, Sanya, and Xi'an starting this year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - The new projects are expected to be important catalysts for Swire Properties' medium to long-term profit and dividend growth, which will drive stock price increases [1] - Following a recent rise in stock price, the current price is at a 50% discount to net asset value (NAV), indicating potential for long-term upward movement [1] Group 2: Operational Insights - Swire Properties has a track record of creating long-term value through the development and management of property complexes [1] - Core operations show signs of improvement, with the office portfolio at Pacific Place demonstrating stability, and retail tenant sales in Hong Kong and mainland China improving, which is expected to support stable rental income [1] Group 3: Recent Transactions - The company announced the sale of two independent houses at the luxury project "6 Deep Water Bay Road" for HKD 2.2 billion, equivalent to HKD 147,000 per square foot, with the transaction expected to complete in the first quarter of this year, likely contributing significant profits to support net profit performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Guangzhou Poly Dragon Bay Taikoo Li project marks a significant collaboration between Swire Properties and Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Group, aimed at enhancing Guangzhou's status as an international consumption center and injecting new vitality into the commercial development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Guangzhou Poly Dragon Bay Taikoo Li is located in the core area of Baihetan in Liwan District, Guangzhou, integrating historical and cultural elements into its design [3]. - The project features an open, low-density street layout, with a 1.3-kilometer riverside landscape transformed into public space, blending historical heritage, natural ecology, and urban life [3]. - The first phase of the project will cover approximately 50,000 square meters and aims to attract over 100 high-quality merchants, with around 40% of the brands being first stores in South China or Guangzhou [3]. Group 2: Future Development Plans - The second phase of the project is expected to commence operations in 2027, introducing international brands, diverse dining options, fashion retail, and cultural arts, while maintaining the open street characteristics of Taikoo Li [3]. - The project aims to create a world-class riverside area that integrates culture, commerce, tourism, and residential living, thereby activating new urban development dynamics [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - Swire Properties emphasizes that the Guangzhou Poly Dragon Bay Taikoo Li is not just a commercial project but also a testament to its long-term commitment to Guangzhou and continued investment in the mainland Chinese market [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - New home sales in January showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales turned positive year-on-year [1][21] - The central bank has released favorable policies, including lowering the re-lending rate and reducing the down payment ratio for commercial properties [1][4] New Home Sales - In January, the new home sales area in 40 cities decreased by 42.3% month-on-month and by 22.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 10.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][14] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 14.0%, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.1% decline, and third and fourth-tier cities had a 41.1% decline [15][20] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home sales area in 18 cities decreased by 2.0% month-on-month but increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate improving by 41.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [21][25] - All city tiers showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand home sales, with first-tier cities growing by 15.0% year-on-year [21][30] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of January, the new home inventory area in 12 cities was 112.91 million square meters, down 0.4% month-on-month and down 6.3% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 18.1 months [28][29] - The absorption cycle for first-tier cities increased by 4.3 months year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decrease of 8.2 months [28] Land Market - The land market in January saw a transaction area decrease of 76.5% month-on-month and a 20.2% year-on-year decline, with an average land premium rate of 2.87% [1][12] - The average land price per square meter decreased by 36.8% month-on-month and by 20.9% year-on-year [13] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 49.5% year-on-year decline in land acquisition amounts, with a land acquisition intensity of 32% [1][12] - The financing scale for the real estate industry in January was 39.6 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year but up 7% month-on-month [1][14] Policy Developments - The central bank's policy changes include lowering the re-lending rate to 1.25% and reducing the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [1][4] - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has been submitted for approval, with a total expected fundraising of 31.47 billion yuan [1][4] Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in January, with an absolute return of 4.3% and a relative return of 2.7% [1][12] - The report anticipates two potential turning points in 2026: a policy turning point around the end of Q1 and a fundamental turning point around Q4 [1][12]