Group 1 - The upcoming summer peak season for civil aviation in 2025 is prompting multiple airlines to launch new routes and explore diversified markets, indicating a focus on enhancing market consumption potential [1] - According to Minsheng Securities, domestic airline prices have improved since the beginning of the year, with off-season demand showing support, and strong performance in holiday air traffic likely to carry over into the summer peak season [1] - Airbus's 2024 GMF report predicts a long-term global air passenger traffic compound annual growth rate of 3.6%, with significant growth in per capita flight frequency, particularly in China, where it is expected to rise from 0.6 times in 2024 to 1.8 times by 2044 [1] Group 2 - Cathay Haitong Securities reports a slight increase in fleet size in the first half of 2025, with limited room for improvement in fleet turnover during the summer peak, and domestic operational investment expected to show minimal growth [2] - The demand for family travel during the summer peak is anticipated to remain strong, with optimistic supply-demand expectations, and a slight adjustment in ticket prices by some airlines to ensure good pre-sale progress for the summer season [2] - With a low base for ticket prices in the summer of 2024, a year-on-year increase in ticket prices for the summer of 2025 is expected, potentially leading to record profits for airlines [2] Group 3 - The aviation sector is entering a low growth supply era, with demand showing resilience since April, and the next two years expected to see continued improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] - The aviation market is steadily approaching the peak season, with limited growth in supply and a natural increase in passenger volume, supporting the logic of rising airline revenues if domestic ticket prices recover [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities continues to recommend focusing on the aviation sector, highlighting strong certainty in supply slowdown and elastic demand, which, combined with favorable oil and exchange rate conditions, could significantly enhance airline performance [2] Group 4 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the aviation sector include China Southern Airlines (600029)(01055), Air China (601111)(00753), China Eastern Airlines (00670), Cathay Pacific Airways (00293), BOC Aviation (02588), and China Civil Aviation Information Network (00696) [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.33%, gaining 79 points to reach 24,261 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.33% [1] - Insurance funds continue to increase holdings in Chinese bank stocks, with institutions indicating significant valuation recovery potential for Hong Kong bank stocks [1] - Bank of Communications (01988) rose by 3.47%, China Everbright Bank (06818) increased by 1.86%, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) gained 1.68% [1] - Three-Synch Pharmaceutical (01530) surged over 11% to a new high after reaching a significant licensing agreement with Pfizer, with strong ASCO data performance [1] - Innovent Biologics (01801) rose over 3.42%, with a year-to-date increase of over 120%, as Morgan Stanley anticipates further clinical catalysts to boost stock performance [1] - InnoCare Pharma-B (09606) increased by 13%, recently disclosing clinical data for DB-1310, attracting attention from international pharmaceutical giants [1] - China Rare Earth (00769) surged over 17%, following a 60% increase in trading volume, with positive signals for rare earth exports [1] - Pop Mart International (09992) rose by 2.47%, continuing to set historical highs, with its Labubu brand gaining global popularity [1] - Airline stocks continued their recent upward trend, benefiting from falling oil prices and the appreciation of the Renminbi, with institutions optimistic about airline profitability [1] - Air China (00753) rose by 4.5%, China Eastern Airlines (00670) increased by 4.42%, China Southern Airlines (01055) gained 4.18%, and BOC Aviation (02588) rose by 3.42% [1] Group 2 - Zhi Zi Cheng Technology (09911) rose over 7%, approaching historical highs, as the company plans to establish its global headquarters in Hong Kong, with institutions optimistic about future profit margin improvement [2] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) increased by 4.97% to a new high, with the company reporting sales of 869,400 pigs in May, drawing market attention to industry capacity regulation progress [2] - Shide Global (00487) surged nearly 140%, as Australia’s Crown Resorts expressed interest in acquiring the property where the Sixteen Piers Casino is located [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong aviation stocks experienced a volatile upward trend, with China Eastern Airlines (00670.HK) rising over 4% [1] - China Southern Airlines (01055.HK) increased by more than 3.5% [1] - BOC Aviation (02588.HK) saw a nearly 3% rise [1] - Air China (00753.HK) gained 1.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Aircraft Leasing Group announced the purchase and long-term lease of nine Airbus A320NEO aircraft [1] Company Summary - The acquisition involves nine Airbus A320NEO aircraft, indicating a strategic move to enhance the company's fleet [1] Industry Summary - The purchase reflects ongoing demand for modern, fuel-efficient aircraft in the aviation leasing industry, particularly in the context of post-pandemic recovery [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping industry is experiencing a surge in demand due to a recent temporary reduction in tariffs between China and the US, leading to a significant increase in shipping volumes on the US route. The average booking volume surged by 277% compared to the previous week [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 10.0% week-on-week, indicating a strong recovery in shipping rates, particularly for routes to the US [6] - The logistics sector is showing resilience, with express delivery volumes in April increasing by 19.1% year-on-year, reflecting robust demand across various sectors [9] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring growth in the sector [12] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - The recent tariff reductions have led to a surge in demand for shipping services, particularly on the US route, with a projected increase in freight rates over the next 2-3 months due to supply constraints [5] - The average weekly capacity for the US route is expected to be 500,000 TEU, down 6% from last year [5] - The oil tanker market is facing supply tightness due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, which is expected to sustain high demand in the coming years [12] Express Logistics - In April, the express delivery industry in China saw a business volume of 16.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with revenue reaching 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [9] - The concentration index for express delivery brands (CR8) was 86.7, indicating a stable competitive landscape [9] Aviation and Airports - The airline industry is poised for growth due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with key companies to watch including China Southern Airlines and Air China [12] - The passenger transport volume in March was approximately 59 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [50] Overall Market Performance - From May 12 to May 16, the transportation index rose by 2.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - The shipping sector saw the highest increase at 7.42%, indicating strong market performance [17]

Financial Performance - The company achieved a record net profit of $924 million in 2024, up 21% from $764 million in 2023[2]. - Total operating revenue and other income increased by 4% to $2.6 billion compared to $2.5 billion in 2023[9]. - The pre-tax profit rose by 21% to $1.04 billion, up from $861 million in the previous year[10]. - Operating cash flow (excluding interest) increased by 13% to $1.9 billion[9]. - The company’s core business generated a net profit of $633 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to 2023[27]. - The net profit after tax for 2024 is $924 million, resulting in a return on equity of 15.3%[51]. - The company reported a net profit of $924 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, an increase of 20.9% from $764 million in 2023[90]. - Operating revenue and other income increased by 3.9% to $2.56 billion in 2024, driven primarily by a significant rise in financing lease interest income[75]. - The company achieved a pre-tax profit of $1.04 billion in 2024, an increase of 20.8% from $860.6 million in 2023[88]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets reached a historical high of $25.1 billion, a 4% increase from $24.2 billion in 2023[10]. - Total assets increased by 3.7% to $25.05 billion as of December 31, 2024, up from $24.17 billion in 2023[91]. - The total equity rose by 10.7% to $6.36 billion in 2024, compared to $5.75 billion in 2023[91]. - The total liabilities increased by $300 million in 2024, with bank borrowings rising to 46% of total borrowings[59]. - Total debt as of December 31, 2024, was $16.668 billion, compared to $16.589 billion as of December 31, 2023[105]. - The total capital debt ratio decreased from 2.9 times as of December 31, 2023, to 2.6 times as of December 31, 2024[105]. Aircraft and Fleet Management - The fleet includes 709 aircraft and engines, with a utilization rate of over 99% for owned fleet aircraft as of December 31, 2024[18]. - The company executed 260 transactions in 2024, including commitments to purchase 47 aircraft and the delivery of 38 aircraft[18]. - The company delivered 38 new aircraft in 2024, although 27 planned deliveries were postponed to 2025[29]. - The company has a backlog of 232 aircraft orders, with future capital expenditure commitments amounting to $12.1 billion[58]. - The company plans to deliver 47 aircraft this year, all of which have been leased to airline customers at favorable rates[33]. Financing and Debt - The company raised new debt financing of $5.5 billion, including $4 billion in loans and $1.5 billion in bonds[9]. - The company has raised over $46 billion in debt financing and has a record liquidity of $5.8 billion in unutilized committed credit lines as of December 31, 2024[36][37]. - The company’s debt financing cost is projected to be 4.5% for 2024, benefiting from a strong investment-grade credit rating[36]. - Financial expenses increased by 11.6% to $710.3 million in 2024, primarily due to a rise in debt cost with an interest rate of 4.5% compared to 4.1% in 2023[85]. Corporate Governance - The company is committed to high standards of corporate ethics, transparency, and accountability to enhance shareholder value[148]. - The board of directors is responsible for strategic leadership and control, with a clear division of responsibilities between the board and management[154]. - The company has adopted and complied with the principles and applicable provisions of the corporate governance code for the year ending December 31, 2024[148]. - The company has a corporate governance policy that guides its directors and senior management in maintaining good governance practices[148]. - The company emphasizes risk management and internal control oversight as part of its governance practices[155]. Risk Management - The company has established a risk management and internal control system to achieve business objectives, providing reasonable assurance against misstatements or losses[179]. - The internal audit department conducts independent reviews of key risk areas and monitors compliance with accounting, financial, and operational procedures[182]. - The company evaluates the effectiveness of its risk management and internal control systems annually, covering all significant controls, including financial and operational controls[181]. - The audit committee is responsible for analyzing and independently assessing the adequacy and effectiveness of the company's risk management and internal control systems[182]. - The risk management committee and internal control committee oversee daily management matters related to risk management[180]. Diversity and Inclusion - The company achieved a total of four female directors, exceeding the board's gender diversity target[162]. - The proportion of female employees in the management team reached 20%, while the overall female employee ratio was 49%, surpassing the 45% target[162]. - The board has adopted a diversity policy, reviewed by the nomination committee in November 2024 and by the board in December 2024[160]. - The company is committed to maintaining at least two female directors on the board and a minimum of 45% female representation among employees[161]. Management Changes - Steven Townend appointed as Executive Director and CEO effective January 1, 2024[168]. - Liu Yunfei appointed as Non-Executive Director effective April 16, 2024[169]. - Liu Jin resigned as Non-Executive Director and Chairman on March 27, 2024[177]. - Robert James Martin retired as General Manager and CEO on December 31, 2023, and reappointed as Non-Executive Director on January 1, 2024[177].

Core Insights - 中银航空租赁 (02588) reported significant year-on-year growth in transactions for Q1 2025, with a record-high order book size, indicating strong operational performance and potential for long-term value [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q1 2025, the company executed 158 transactions compared to 54 in Q1 2024, including the delivery of 11 aircraft (up by 6 aircraft year-on-year) and commitments to purchase 125 new aircraft [2]. - The total fleet size increased by 15 aircraft year-on-year to 442, while the order book grew by 117 aircraft year-on-year to 339, marking a historical high [2]. - The company is expected to see an improvement in gross rental yield and stable net rental yield due to enhanced delivery rates and rising aircraft values [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on global aviation demand is expected to be manageable, as the company has a strong fleet structure that can withstand uncertainties [3]. - The average age of the company's fleet is 5.1 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.9 years and a utilization rate of 100%, indicating operational efficiency [3]. - The company has minimized exposure to Chinese airlines, with only 19% of its business related to this segment as of the end of 2024, and no plans to deliver aircraft from the U.S. to Chinese airlines before the end of 2026 [3].

2025 年 03 月 13 日 中银航空租赁 (02588) ——滞俄飞机减计影响出清，交付掣肘与降息放缓成关键 变量 上 市 公 司 非银金融 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 61.85 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8640.61 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 70.25/53.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 429.25 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 694.01 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0832 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 17% 37% 57% HSCEI 中银航空租赁 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 (8621)23297818× jinld@swsresearch.com 事件：3 月 13 日，中银航空租赁披露 2024 ...

证券研究报告 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 港股通 保险赔偿拉高利润，NLY 有望改善 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 | 14 日│中国香港 | 租赁 | 中银航空租赁（BOCA）24 年归母净利润 9.2 亿美元（同比+21%），好于 我们预计的 7.5 亿美元，主要由于下半年与滞俄飞机有关的 1.15 亿保险赔 偿拉高了利润。剔除涉俄因素后的核心净利润为 6.3 亿美元。净租赁收益率 （NLY）同比提升 10bps 至 7.2%，主因经营租赁业务的资金成本逐渐下降。 预计未来飞机供不应求仍将带动飞机价值和租金提升，并利好公司租赁收入 和飞机处置收入。上游飞机制造商的产能边际好转亦将部分缓解交付压力。 同时倘若海外利率进一步下行，公司负债成本压力将进一步下降。"买入" 资本开支目标保持不变，25 年飞机交付有望边际好转 2024 年末自有飞机和引擎 445 架，在管飞机 32 架，已订飞机 232 架。飞 机资产的账面净值为 180 亿美元，同比下滑 5%，主因飞机出售数量增多， 以及上游飞机制造商产能短缺拖累交付（27 架飞机延期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of USD 2.56 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of USD 924 million, up 21% year-on-year, marking a historical high [5] - The core net profit, excluding the impact of the write-down of Russian aircraft, was USD 633 million, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase [5] - The company faces challenges in aircraft delivery due to supply chain issues, which may affect core rental income [6] - The aviation industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with a projected CAGR of 5.1% for passenger demand in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 20 years, significantly higher than North America and Europe [6] - The company benefits from a young fleet and a high remaining lease term, which positions it well to capitalize on the growth in the Asia-Pacific aviation market [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenues to grow from USD 2.56 billion in 2024 to USD 2.82 billion by 2027, with net profits projected to decline to USD 671 million in 2025 before recovering to USD 754 million by 2027 [6][7] - The financial forecast includes a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 due to anticipated delivery issues and rising funding costs [6] - The company’s net asset return is expected to remain stable, with a projected return on equity of around 10.2% from 2025 to 2027 [6] Company Insights - The company has a fleet of 709 aircraft, with 445 owned, achieving a utilization rate of over 99% [6] - The average age of the fleet is 5.0 years, significantly younger than the global average of 15 years, which enhances its competitive position [6] - The company sold 29 aircraft in 2024 and signed 118 new lease commitments, indicating active fleet management [6] - The company’s order book stands at 232 aircraft, reflecting strong demand despite delivery challenges [6]